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12 team auction strategy


Grogansghost
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A quick question about auctions -- specifically for leagues with 12 or more teams so you expect all of the obvious starters to go at or above value because of the larger amount of $$$$ in the bidding pool.

 

I was wondering if owners have found they could get a better price by nominating lower tier players while all of the studs at a position were still left? I'm talking about RB2s and WR2s rather than sleepers or bench players.

 

Nominating guys like: Chris Johnson - RB, Dwayne Bowe - WR, Jason Witten - TE, or Matt Ryan - QB -- while AP, Calvin, Graham, and Rodgers are still available.

 

 

I was thinking that owners might be hesitant to fight for a player they weren't expecting to be nominated so early. The price for the position hasn't been set and everyone's dream players are still available.

 

If I throw out Chris Johnson while AP and every RB they view as better than him are still available -- maybe I get a better price based on fear and confusion. To me he's the type of guy that an owner might fight me for if a tier is about to empty and we both realize we don't have an RB2 yet. But there probably isn't an owner thinking he's going to anchor the RB position with CJ.

 

By nominating this type of player early, it might be tough for the other owners to gauge whether or not I'm actually interested in him, or trying to stick them with a risky player early -- so there might be fewer attempts to drive up the price.

 

 

Just wondering what people think of this approach and if anyone has tried something similar with success.

 

 

Also - all of the owners in my league are smart but new to auctions.

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I certainly throw out players I do not want to allow others to burn their cash on them. That all said - remember that there are 11 other teams besides yours. You can get 6 or 8 of them to burn up cash but if you want some sleeper all it takes is one other guy to want him for a bidding war to ensue. And there is always that one other guy. The best values always come on guys that most people don't covet that much and knowing how you value players allows you to see what is a good value. I always come away from an auction with a number of players I had no intention on getting going into the auction, but they represented too good of a value to pass up.

 

I have been in a lot of auctions and almost all of them were 12 team. I have learned it is best to decide on 3 to 5 players that I think should be decent enough values and then go after them aggressively. I like to get my first few players very early - I want a stud or two at least - and then wait for value picks the rest of the way.

 

There have been just far too many times when I have sat on some sleeper and it looked like everyone else would not be interested and then that player goes through the roof because he was the one guy that several people were waiting on. I am big on getting my QB or TE and then throwing them out until everyone has their starters because you know other teams are not going to hurt you there and the more they spend where you are already okay is bound to help.

 

My one thing that nearly always happens is I like to get the first RB or first WR thrown out because they are always a megastud and yet end up as a decent value because most every one holds back waiting to see what the price for a position is going to be. Getting a 10% off on the #1 RB is always nice.

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My one thing that nearly always happens is I like to get the first RB or first WR thrown out because they are always a megastud and yet end up as a decent value because most every one holds back waiting to see what the price for a position is going to be. Getting a 10% off on the #1 RB is always nice.

 

 

That has not been my experience at all. Usually the first four or five studs that come out at any position go for $20 more than the next four or five (make that seven or eight for RBs)

 

Thus to address the OP, it has more often been my experience that nominating a lower-tier player earlier will lead him to sell for a higher price than he would later, in almost all situations. The one exception would be what DMD described, where the guy you want is the last starting RB left on the board before DeAngelo Williams, and three of you don't have an RB2 yet. That's kind of unusual, though, and if you pay attention to the dwindling talent pool and who still needs what, you can often manipulate the situation to your advantage. Let's say it's down to maybe Reggie Bush or Le'Veon Bell. Your team and the "Tittsburgh Feelers" both need a RB. Obviously, you'd rather have Bush, and he might too--but playing into his homer expectations of Bell, you can throw him out first and let him go for one of those "bargain" prices that the guy just can't pass up. Now he no longer has enough cash to outbid you for Bush, and you get your guy at a reasonable price.

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I've never seen much in the way of reliable trends in auctions, and that's a big part of why they're so fun. Like DMD, I've always ended up with players I didn't covet, and more often than not, it's bitten me in the ass.

 

The only constant I've observed is that there are almost always 3-4 super bargains about 2/3 of the way through the draft. Guys who should cost about 10% of the cap are down at 4 or 5%. Unfortunately, by that point, my aggression toward marginal value has left me without the money to bid on them. That's one thing I plan to change this year.

 

If you can be patient and let go of a few guys you might want, you are usually rewarded later. The reason for that, I believe, is because most of us are scared of getting to the end of the draft with more money than we need. The reward, though, is that you can load up on decent players (not "studs," of course), which hedges against risk and increases the overall odds of your team producing a quality lineup.

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As a matter of fact, I JUST CAME from an auction draft--not a mock, a real 12-team league--in which it would have been pretty bad to go for the first few studs. You see, the scoring included 6 pt pass TDs for one thing, so I knew the top QBs would be money pits. The starting lineups, besides the usual QB, TE, K and D, included 2 RBs, 2 WRs and 2 FLEX positions--so I went into the draft looking to get two acceptable WRs and at least four solid RBs so that I could use them all each week.

 

Here are a couple of teams that went for the stud strategy:

 

QB: Phillip Rivers

RB: Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Daniel Thomas, Zac Stacy, Michael Turner

WR: A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Denarius Moore, Josh Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery

TE: Fred Davis

K: Steven Hauschka

D: DAL

 

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Josh Freeman

RB: LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Jacquizz Rodgers, Denard Robinson

WR: Roddy White, James Jones, Santana Moss, Nate Burleson,

TE: Vernon Davis, Jermaine Gresham

K: Blair Walsh, Mike Nugent

D: BAL, NYG

 

QB: Robert Griffin III, Matt Schaub

RB: Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, Johnathan Franklin, Bernard Pierce, Daryl Richardson

WR: Sidney Rice, Jeremy Maclin, Tavon Austin, Aaron Dobson

TE: Dennis Pitta

K: Randy Bullock

D: SD

 

And my team:

 

QB: Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer

RB: Steven Jackson, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Reggie Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mark Ingram

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Cecil Shorts, Danario Alexander, Kendall Wright

TE: Tony Gonzalez

K: David Akers

D: CHI

 

I did make one mistake: I drove up the price on Cecil Shorts one notch too many and got stuck with him--or else I would have had Romo and Palmer at QB instead of Dalton and Palmer, and probly Jeremy Kerley instead of Cecil Shorts. I was also planning to handcuff Jackson and Murray with Jacquizz and Randle, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Mark Ingram were a couple of those deals that I couldn't pass up--which I guess in the end also contributed to me missing out on Romo, but eh, ce la vie.

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If you can be patient and let go of a few guys you might want, you are usually rewarded later.

 

 

Absolutely. If there is one "key" to auction drafts, it is patience. You don't want to be so passive that there are no quality players left on the board when you start to buy, but if you can avoid that first run of the most expensive players at each position, you can get a lot of quality depth at good prices later--witness my team above.

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Thanks for the feedback everyone. I'm trying to read as much as I can without getting too locked in on a plan.

 

I've tried to get some experience through the mocks on Yahoo -- but as Baby Jane pointed out in a different thread, they're a bit like the wild west right now because there aren't enough live people and the draft bots bid like crazy. Right now the average auction values on Yahoo are a lot more than other sites -- which worries me a bit because that's the platform we'll use to draft. If we drafted on yahoo today there'd be a 76$ aav next to AP's name - while on the AAV at myfantasy league he's going for 42. hopefully, the numbers will make more sense closer to the start of the season.

 

 

One thing I think I'll do as an inexperienced auction drafter is be the first to throw out a kicker and a defense. I've seen that advice in a couple of spots and it makes sense because I either get the top guys on my list for a dollar - or force someone to pay 2. Hopefully, I get two owners fighting over a defense early in the draft. I also figure throwing out some of the key back-ups right after the stud player goes might drive up the prices on them -- guys like Bryce Brown, Ben Tate, Bernard Pierce - all players that I wouldn't mind having at a low price, but who might go for a lot more if the owners of McCoy, Foster, and Rice aren't allowed to wait. An experienced auciton drafter will have dealt with this before - but everyone in my league will be wondering if they can wait.

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I think most of the bots will let you have pretty much any kicker you nominate; however a human might be more bullheaded about letting Gostkowski go. A half-dozen of the top Ds will be bid up to 3 or 4 or 5 dollars, but after that, you can pretty much have your choice there as well.

 

If you do get stuck with some bots--or people--driving prices up like crazy, just get a stud or two and then force yourself to sit back and wait until everyone runs low on cash. Then you'll be able to sit there and pick off anyone you want who gets nominated.

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I remember when I had no intention of winning either Priest Holmes LT one year, but I wanted to bid them up...I got stuck with both of them...something I didn't want at those prices...but at the end of the year, with a fantasy championship under my belt, and some hindsight in tow, I was happy to get "stuck" with both of them

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I remember when I had no intention of winning either Priest Holmes LT one year, but I wanted to bid them up...I got stuck with both of them...something I didn't want at those prices...but at the end of the year, with a fantasy championship under my belt, and some hindsight in tow, I was happy to get "stuck" with both of them

 

 

This has become my official draft strategy --- LUCK

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

There have been just far too many times when I have sat on some sleeper and it looked like everyone else would not be interested and then that player goes through the roof because he was the one guy that several people were waiting on.

 

 

 

 

+ a million....It has happened to me several times, once in a very painful way when that "sleeper" was the last quality player remaining at that position. You end up either missing out or paying a price that is not a "sleeper" price at all. Gotta protect against that by going ahead and nominating that player yourself while there are still a couple of alternatives remaining.

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One thing I think I'll do as an inexperienced auction drafter is be the first to throw out a kicker and a defense. I've seen that advice in a couple of spots and it makes sense because I either get the top guys on my list for a dollar - or force someone to pay 2. Hopefully, I get two owners fighting over a defense early in the draft. I also figure throwing out some of the key back-ups right after the stud player goes might drive up the prices on them -- guys like Bryce Brown, Ben Tate, Bernard Pierce - all players that I wouldn't mind having at a low price, but who might go for a lot more if the owners of McCoy, Foster, and Rice aren't allowed to wait. An experienced auciton drafter will have dealt with this before - but everyone in my league will be wondering if they can wait.

 

 

I emphatically agree on nominating kickers and defenses. If no one bids - you get your favorite kicker or defense for only $1 and if someone bids just $1 more they are overpaying (assuming league is <14). The handcuff strategy is interesting but I would say too risky. One, people won't like you for it if they own one of the studs. Two, you may end up needing that handcuff after you get a stud later.

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One thing I think I'll do as an inexperienced auction drafter is be the first to throw out a kicker and a defense. I've seen that advice in a couple of spots and it makes sense because I either get the top guys on my list for a dollar - or force someone to pay 2. Hopefully, I get two owners fighting over a defense early in the draft.

 

 

You see this advice given every time there is an auction strategy thread, and see it used in auction drafts all the time. I disagree that this is good strategy.

 

Not that it doesn't work, it does. But you only get a limited number of nominations during your draft (however many slots there are on the rosters). There are a lot more important things that I want to accomplish with my nominations rather than getting the kicker I want or making somebody spend an extra dollar on a defense. For instance:

 

  • If there are three WR's left in the tier I am targeting, two of which I would be happy with, I will nominate the third one. Knocks out one competitor for the one(s) I really want.

 

 

  • QB & TE - I don't intend to spend a lot on either position, so I like to nominate them early to make sure that others are spending maximum $$ on these positions. Means they have less $$$ to compete for WR's & RB's.

 

 

  • If you're in a situation where you are targeting one of the top RB's left on the board, nominate one of the RB's ranked just below them. Again, you can eliminate competition for the one you really want.

 

 

  • Watch the position slots for other owners. If you are down to only two or three owners needing to fill the TE or QB slot for instance, and there is only one or two decent ones left, nominate them. You're almost guaranteed somebody will overpay.

 

For me, all of these considerations take easy precedence over worrying about kickers & defenses.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Knowing the owners in your league is more important in an auction IMO. You can nominate certain players knowing full well a bidding war will ensue.

 

I also make it a point to make sure I get at least one tier 1 guy, even if it means spending to get him. The most frustrating teams I've ever had in auctions were the ones with a bunch of decent but not great tier 2 and 3 guys. You want at least one stud for sure, maybe two if the price is right. Then patience is definitely key... Excellent values will come if you wait for them. The second tier of QBs tend to be particularly good values IMO.

 

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I also make it a point to make sure I get at least one tier 1 guy, even if it means spending to get him. The most frustrating teams I've ever had in auctions were the ones with a bunch of decent but not great tier 2 and 3 guys. You want at least one stud for sure, maybe two if the price is right. Then patience is definitely key... Excellent values will come if you wait for them.

 

I echo the above. And you can get two rather than one if the prices stay in line, but there are many auctions you just have to settle for one. Spending 65-70%+ of budget on two players can make it tough to fill out the rest of the roster with much quality. But I completely agree with nailing down one stud, paying what it takes to do so.

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