Cowboyz1 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The more I watch these two in games the more I wonder if both don't fall significantly in production this year. I say this for two reasons. 1. NFL defensive coordinators adapt very quickly and this read option stuff took teams by surprise. Reminds me of one Kordell Stewart and Pittsburgh's version or Ronnie Brown in Miami running wild over New England and the league a few years back with the wishbone. It took defenses a year to stop it. I went back and studied how they stopped Kordell and it was very simple. Defenses decided no matter what he did with the ball, the first man ignores the option and knocks the fk out of the QB every time he runs the option. That for one took it's toll early and it also made the play caller know that if he calls that play his QB is going to get hit and hit hard. Secondly, in Kordell's case, they took away the playside read and zone blitzed from the outside. Two things happened, one Kordell got hurt just like RGIII and two he had to become a pocket QB to protect himself. Once his legs were slowed down he wasn't the same QB. Secondly, defenses no longer where out of position due to the read option being snuffed and those open WR's running free over the middle and deep were covered. INT's went up and thus confidence went down. Not sure who is the better pocket passer or reads defenses better but both have lightning Quick releases, especially RGIII. But what happens when those things that worked so well last year don't anymore. What happens when D coordinators make them do something else? Can they adapt as quickly and what will happen to them psychologically? 2. Can they possibly continue to run the read option knowing the consequences, if not, what will their collective production be running a more conventional offense? One thing I know is that you can't get hit by linemen and LB's as a QB in this league and stay coherent. In Wilson's case, he reminds me of Flutie. A smaller guy who is elusive with nice touch and anticipation. So I think he has less a downside then RGII who is far more apt to run for yardage and take hits. Russell runs more to buy time then gain yardage. I compare both to Cam Newton. Cam however, is a beast at 6-5 250 so he can take one in order to dish one out. Neither RGIII or Wilson can play as big as Cam so that is where the comparison stops. Cam can see over the line and stand tall, take the hit and deliver. Not sure I can say that for either of these two. We will see but I have downgraded both until I see what they do in year 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 I too have downgraded both, RGIII more so than Wilson. RG reminds me of Vick in the sense that he is going to do a lot of running, that is who he is, it is in his DNA. This means he will take a lot of big hits, and I believe he will continue to have a have a hard time staying at 100% as a result, a la Vick. Wilson does a better job at picking his spots to run, tends to run out of bounds a lot, or slide at the end of runs. He is not as reckless a runner. Not that he doesn't take some hits, he does, just not to the extent of RGIII. I've downgraded Wilson because he is in an offense that won't have to do much, more so than because of potential injury. They will be in a lot of games where they get the lead and their defense is good enough to hold those leads. Lot of ball control, lot of Beast-mode. Not good stuff for a fantasy QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Good analysis, but the comparison to Kordell Stewart is a bit off as I don't think he was every a very good passer. Also the PIT coach didn't see Kordell as a franchise QB so he was more willing to sacrifice him and let him take a beating. I don't see either Shanahan or Carroll letting their QB run recklessly and be injured regularly. Defenses will adapt, so will the offenses. Both might need to be downgraded compared to last year because they won't get all those rushing points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Wait, you used a 56% career passer with more INTs than TDs as your point of comparison? Why? Because they are all black and can run in addition to passing? Because the guys are in a completely different tier regarding passing skills. Not even close, in fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Wait, you used a 56% career passer with more INTs than TDs as your point of comparison? Why? Because they are all black and can run in addition to passing? Because the guys are in a completely different tier regarding passing skills. Not even close, in fact. Exactly my point, I wonder what their passer rating will be once the read option is snuffed out? Professional pride in DCs force correction pretty quickly from year to year. Defensive secondaries got out of position many times last year trying to stop it and I don't see that happening this year. So what gives, rushing stats or passing stats or both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Exactly my point, I wonder what their passer rating will be once the read option is snuffed out? Professional pride in DCs force correction pretty quickly from year to year. Defensive secondaries got out of position many times last year trying to stop it and I don't see that happening this year. So what gives, rushing stats or passing stats or both. I see Steve Young as a much better point of comparison for both guys. Same type of athleticism and passer capability. And like Young I see both guys developing as better drop back passers who will punish Ds as plays break down by breaking contain. In fact, that's exactly what Wilson did at Wisconsin rather than scripted running plays. Both teams would be nuts to risk guys who can throw as well as they both do by sending them on planned running plays into the line. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 SecondString already touched on this -- but the thing that concerns me most about these guys is the lack of passing attempts. according to nfl.com, for the regular season, the redskins, niners, and seahawks finished as the bottom 3 in pass attempts. With the niners and seahawks - they have strong defenses, strong running games, and will be playing with the lead a lot. I tend to favor the guys who get more passing attempts and are likely to be in some shootouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whyme23 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Why not group kaepernick in there too, i think all these guys will regress a bit because more tape is out on them now and defenses are adjusting. That being said I like RG3, Kaep and Wilson in that order. RG3 is the most accurate passer and I believe Wash will run a more standard pocket passing type offense this year to avoid hits on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Why not group kaepernick in there too, i think all these guys will regress a bit because more tape is out on them now and defenses are adjusting. That being said I like RG3, Kaep and Wilson in that order. RG3 is the most accurate passer and I believe Wash will run a more standard pocket passing type offense this year to avoid hits on him. agree 100%, and would further add that RGIII will be the more fantasy-friendly QB based on his team's defense not keeping him in games the way the other two's teams would.... plus he's just the more talented QB IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 (edited) I see Steve Young as a much better point of comparison for both guys. Same type of athleticism and passer capability. And like Young I see both guys developing as better drop back passers who will punish Ds as plays break down by breaking contain. In fact, that's exactly what Wilson did at Wisconsin rather than scripted running plays. Both teams would be nuts to risk guys who can throw as well as they both do by sending them on planned running plays into the line. Yep, Wilson doesn't seem to take off so much or run the option, he simply slips away from defenders to buy time and let the play break down before deciding whether his best move is to run, throw or bail on the play. He just has a different kind of elusiveness than RG3. Kid is slippery, and it was a big part of his success. But I agree with the above, he'll be more effective by not asking him to win games on his own, making him a safe but not spectacular fantasy option. As for RG3, I think he is like a smarter version of Vick who actually can adapt to being a pocket-passer, but will not be nearly as unstoppable by abandoning his legs. And of course the other comparison to Vick, is that he may also have an injury-riddled career if he does keep on relying on his legs. Edited July 23, 2013 by delusions of grandeur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whyme23 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 RGIII is nothing like Vick, he is actually an accurate passer, hes smart, he's right handed and hes taller. He's a complete player and Vick is just an athlete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 RGIII is nothing like Vick, he is actually an accurate passer, hes smart, he's right handed and hes taller. He's a complete player and Vick is just an athlete "like a smarter version of Vick who actually can adapt to being a pocket-passer", point being that he'll face similar challenges that Vick did of either becoming a pocket passer, or having s hort or injury riddled career. It was not meant to be a direct comparison, other than that he can't just get by on his legs. Though he may not be that dynamic either without running. Yes, he's a good accurate passer, but being primarily a passer might not suit his style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 RGIII is nothing like Vick, he is actually an accurate passer, hes smart, he's right handed and hes taller. He's a complete player and Vick is just an athlete As stated in my post, was only comparing the two "in the sense that he is going to do a lot of running, that is who he is, it is in his DNA." Nothing to do with the other attributes you mention, (which I agree with btw). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whyme23 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 As stated in my post, was only comparing the two "in the sense that he is going to do a lot of running, that is who he is, it is in his DNA." Nothing to do with the other attributes you mention, (which I agree with btw). Understood, I guess my point is that it is not as much of a transition for RGIII given he is already an accomplished passer. For Vick it was trying to reinvent his game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Understood, I guess my point is that it is not as much of a transition for RGIII given he is already an accomplished passer. For Vick it was trying to reinvent his game. Roger that...I still don't think he will stop running though, even though they will go to extensive lengths to find ways to protect him. It's such a big part of who he is, and the game he plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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