Comfort Zone: Drafting Players on the same team

[Scooby]

I wrote a pretty thorough debunking of the QB/WR myth back in, oh, 2003 or 2004, something like that, but this article from 2008 summarizes things pretty nicely.

 

http://subscribers.f...en-sameteam.php

 

 

 

 

so lets see your brilliant article, surely its published--but instead you provide a FBG link?? You're one creepy dude btw...

on topic, if I wind up having 2 from the same team, I dont sweat it. Stellar offenses often have bona fide studs at key positions. I try to be a best-available person during a draft. I have failed miserably when I dont follow that protocol and try to overthink roster spots, scoring, bye weeks, etc..--case in point FFPC last yr:( :crying:

[Axe Elf]

Sorry, not going to rely on information from 6 years ago. You see where he got his data? That's right, data from 2005-2007. Think the game has changed since then?

 

 

The game has probly become more pass-heavy, which means that there would be even more positive covariance between a QB and WR pair, and even more negative covariance between QB/RB and RB/WR pairs--in other words, the changes in the game should make you even more comfortable having QB/RB pairs and RB/WR pairs from the same team, and even less comfortable having QB/WR pairs from the same team.

[darin3]

The game has probly become more pass-heavy, which means that there would be even more positive covariance between a QB and WR pair, and even more negative covariance between QB/RB and RB/WR pairs--in other words, the changes in the game should make you even more comfortable having QB/RB pairs and RB/WR pairs from the same team, and even less comfortable having QB/WR pairs from the same team.

 

 

Again, whatever helps you win your random, 10-team Yahoo league.... right?

[Axe Elf]

Among others.

[Big Country]

Mr. Elf -

 

The article you linked to provides some interesting data, however I believe you are clinging to the wrong conclusions that the author provided.

 

You are stating your point about more consistency coming from same team pairs based on study after the fact, when scores were already known. This is all great, if you could tell me with any consistency what pairs of teammates were going to for sure finish in the top 10 at their positions before the season began. I'm pretty good at this game, and I readily admit that I would not be able to do that with enough confidence to make me forego another player I potentially liked more.

 

Now, the key takeaway, the analysis that is actually related to what is being discussed here, which is looking at the pairings that are highly rated in the preseason and how they actually do compared to similarly rated combinations of players, clearly demonstrates that there is no significant difference in production between pairs from the same team and any other pair.

 

With all due credit to the original author and FBG (I am only posting as the article is 5 years old, not a "current" article) -

 

As is often true, a reasonable common sense case can be made, with examples cited, for each of two opposing viewpoints. So as I often do, I'm going to look at the historical data to see which way, if either, the actual data leans.

 

Let's start by looking at WR/RB pairs.

 

The first thing I did was to find all instances from 2000 to 2007 where a single NFL team had an RB and a WR who were among the top ten in terms of positional ADP (fine print). There were 27 such pairs, from Jimmy Smith / Fred Taylor in 2000 to Torry Holt / Steven Jackson last year.

 

For a concrete example, let's focus on the 2004 Seattle Seahawks. They had Shaun Alexander, whose ADP was RB4, and Darrell Jackson, whose ADP was WR10.

 

The next step was to identify all players who were within two ADP slots, one way or the other, of each of our two players. In the example above, Alexander was RB4, so I looked at RB2 (Tomlinson), RB3 (Ahman Green), RB4 (Alexander), RB5 (Portis), and RB6 (McAllister). Darrell Jackson was WR10, so I looked at WR8 (Mason), WR9 (Joe Horn), WR10 (Jackson), WR11 (Steve Smith), and WR12 (Coles). Then I looked at all combinations --- one RB and one WR --- of players from those lists and recorded the fantasy point total of each duo. That's 24 pairs, plus the Alexander/Jackson pair we're interested in. The median of the other 24 pairs was 360 fantasy points. That's what you might reasonably expect if you drafted a similarly-ranked pair of players to Alexander and Jackson. Alexander and Jackson themselves totalled 468 fantasy points, so you would have done well to take the Seahawk duo.

 

Of the 27 pairs, the same-team duo did better on 14 occasions, and worse on 13 occasion. The same-team pairs averaged a total of 383 fantasy points. Their different-team comps averaged 380. Essentially no difference.

 

But that's not really what we're interested in. What we're interested in is the spread of outcomes. We want to know if the same-team pairs ended up at that average via lots of very high scores and lots of very low scores, or if their range of scores was more or less the same as the different-team pairs' range was.

 

The answer turns out to be the latter. The most common mathematical tool for measuring the spread of a collection of numbers is the standard deviation. The same-team pairs had a standard deviation of 104 points. The comparable different-team pairs had a standard deviation of 107 points. Again, no difference. In general, there is no reason to conclude that a same-team WR/RB pair is more variable --- more boom-or-bust --- than a similar-scoring different-team pair.

 

And it turns out the same is true of QB/RB pairs and WR/WR pairs.

 

There were 38 instances of a top-10 ADP QB and a top-10 ADP RB playing on the same NFL team. The same-team pair outscored the median of their different-team comps 22 of the 38 times. The same-team pairs averaged 502 points vs. 500 for their comps. The standard deviations were 127 (same-team) and 124 (different-team). Again, no significant difference.

 

There were 20 instances of two top-20 ADP WRs on the same NFL team. The same-team pairs outscored the median of their different-team comps exactly half the time. The averages were 309 (same-team) to 302 (different-team), and the standard deviations were 73 (same) and 79 (different).

 

Bottom line: the historical data strongly suggests that you not skip over a player on your cheatsheet just because you already have another player from the same NFL team. As always, though, the particular situation you're considering is not a composite of historical situations. It's got its own pecularities, and you might have good reasons to believe that it's different. As usual, I view this study merely as a burden-of-proof shifter. That is, it should only define your default mode of thinking, your starting point. Instead of assuming that a same-team pair has more variability than a different-team pair and asking, "should I do it anyway?", you should instead start by asking, "In general, the same-team pairing is NOT more variable, so is there any particular reason why, in this case, it would be?"

 

 

so, we have no statistical significance in production or consistency based on preseason ADP, thus no real reason to actually target same team pairs, as we have no expectation of any sort of gain.

 

All this leads me back to my original reply:

 

As to your question, other than loading up on the same bye week (which is a different discussion altogether), as long as you are drafting the player that you believe will score the most points at the position you have decided to draft, then what team they are on in relation to the other players you have drafted is basically irrelevant.

[Axe Elf]

if you could tell me with any consistency what pairs of teammates were going to for sure finish in the top 10 at their positions before the season began

 

I would be glad to, as this is, in fact, a specialty of mine! Simply pay close attention to the lessons regarding who you should and should not draft which I post periodically throughout the summer and the preseason, and you'll be good to go!

 

Now, the key takeaway, the analysis that is actually related to what is being discussed here, which is looking at the pairings that are highly rated in the preseason and how they actually do compared to similarly rated combinations of players, clearly demonstrates that there is no significant difference in production between pairs from the same team and any other pair.

 

Yes, a difference in production is not what is being sought. In fact, you would want to compare similarly scoring pairs rather than differently scoring pairs for the comparison to be accurate. What IS being seen, however, is an increase in consistent scores--you have fewer bust weeks (and fewer boom weeks) with same-team QB/RB, RB/WR and WR/WR pairs than you do with similarly scoring pairs from different teams--and a decrease in consistency for same-team QB/WR pairs as compared to similarly scoring pairs from different teams.

 

no real reason to actually target same team pairs

 

No, not over guys who will score more points--but you shouldn't shy away from such pairs either, as they will axually lend more consistency to your scoring (except in the case of same-team QB/WR pairs).

Edited July 25, 2013 by Axe Elf

[Big Country]

 

 

I would be glad to, as this is, in fact, a specialty of mine! Simply pay close attention to the lessons regarding who you should and should not draft which I post periodically throughout the summer and the preseason, and you'll be good to go!

 

 

 

You can drop the schtick with me. I don't put up with it from the other regulars that have actually earned credibility here and I won't put up with it from you.

 

 

Yes, a difference in production is not what is being sought. In fact, you would want to compare similarly scoring pairs rather than differently scoring pairs for the comparison to be accurate. What IS being seen, however, is an increase in consistent scores--you have fewer bust weeks (and fewer boom weeks) with same-team QB/RB, RB/WR and WR/WR pairs than you do with similarly scoring pairs from different teams--and a decrease in consistency for same-team QB/WR pairs as compared to similarly scoring pairs from different teams.

 

 

Again you are looking at the after the fact analysis, where the combos that finished the season top 10 at their position were cherry picked, and yes, it is very logical that non QB/WR same team combos display more consistency than their different team counterparts. Unfortunately we are not discussing known results, we are discussing the potential of pairs for the upcoming season.

 

So, using the data that is actually relevant to this discussion, the ADP data from the article that you linked, it clearly shows that there is no increase in production or consistency between same team and different team combinations.

[Joessfl]

Agreed. As you state BC, its all about the future production, and NO ONE has the crystal ball. Whenever I think about the drafting of two key players on the same team (QB/WR, QB/RB, etc), I think about my adversity to risk, and the team they are on. Will I take a QB and RB from clevland, probably not, since the team might have more stinker games, and therefore the combo will wind up stinky more than not. If it ia a Green Bay combo, well then the question is different, and my answer might be different. Its all about one's personal ability to take risk.

 

When I finally accepted that most of FFL is luck and not science, I think it makes the conversation much more entertaining and not a game of mathematics. Past history can guide me, but its no replacement for gut.

 

Anybody that tells me its all mathematics and science is not getting it.

Edited July 25, 2013 by Joessfl

[stevegrab]

Agreed. As you state BC, its all about the future production, and NO ONE has the crystal ball. Whenever I think about the drafting of two key players on the same team (QB/WR, QB/RB, etc), I think about my adversity to risk, and the team they are on. Will I take a QB and RB from clevland, probably not, since the team might have more stinker games, and therefore the combo will wind up stinky more than not. If it ia a Green Bay combo, well then the question is different, and my answer might be different. Its all about one's personal ability to take risk.

 

When I finally accepted that most of FFL is luck and not science, I think it makes the conversation much more entertaining and not a game of mathematics. Past history can guide me, but its no replacement for gut.

 

Anybody that tells me its all mathematics and science is not getting it.

 

 

Its not just mostly luck, but all luck according to some posters here "FFL is 85% luck and 15% luck' (with whatever percentages that total to 100). All of this cherry picking of stats to to prove points is too funny. Past performance is not always a predictor of the future, especially in the crazy world of FFL.

[Axe Elf]

Fantasy football is 40% luck and 60% Baby Jane.

[Shotskiees]

whaaa...what have I created!!

 

I started this thread in anticipation that we would discuss relevant NFL teammates involved in the draft, how they relate to being on your fantasy squad, where you have the chance to draft these players (ADP), and which teammates you could target based on your expectations (etc)

 

We can all agree that you draft the players who will score the most points for your team. If by chance or purpose you draft players from the same squad which ones would you like to have!?

 

Fantasy football is 40% luck and 60% Baby Jane.

 

 

No offense Baby Jane but I am really curious as to how you look. Your comments scream "Neck Beard" to me

[Joessfl]

Its not just mostly luck, but all luck according to some posters here "FFL is 85% luck and 15% luck' (with whatever percentages that total to 100). All of this cherry picking of stats to to prove points is too funny. Past performance is not always a predictor of the future, especially in the crazy world of FFL.

 

 

I think its mostly luck for most people. Its all luck when it comes to my teams.

[Joessfl]

whaaa...what have I created!!

 

I started this thread in anticipation that we would discuss relevant NFL teammates involved in the draft, how they relate to being on your fantasy squad, where you have the chance to draft these players (ADP), and which teammates you could target based on your expectations (etc)

 

We can all agree that you draft the players who will score the most points for your team. If by chance or purpose you draft players from the same squad which ones would you like to have!?

 

 

 

No offense Baby Jane but I am really curious as to how you look. Your comments scream "Neck Beard" to me

 

 

Good point. We did get off track. Like I said, I would first gather info on teams I think would produce the most offense. Maybe the top 5. Then I would look at the QB WR and RB for those teams. How is the QB? Does he pass a lot? If so, then I would consider his WR corp. I think the obvious ones for me would be:

 

GB : Rodgers and Cobb

ATL: Ryan and J Jones

NE: I thought about this but would shy away...I think they spread the ball around too much for my liking.

 

Then I also have to have opportunity. If for instance I have Rodgers on my team, and Cobb does wind up next on my list and its my turn, do I want him or not? I think this type of situation comes up maybe 2 times in a draft for me. If Cobb is not there then I dont even have the opportunity which is fine by me. I never seek it out (I rarely go for someone lower on my list just because he is on GB and I have Rodgers). Its not something I dwell on beforehand, its at the moment.

 

I also think about the negative aspects at the time too. If I do draft a QB and WR, it is risky also for the fact a QB gets hurt, it hurts the WR and the offense as a whole sometimes, so that makes the WR and even the RB less productive. For instance the backup QB cant throw as good as Rodgers, so the D is going to key more on the RB.

 

Did any of that drivel make any sense?

Edited July 25, 2013 by Joessfl

[Big Country]

I will not target, nor will I avoid any same team combos of players.

[Joessfl]

I will not target, nor will I avoid any same team combos of players.

 

 

Yup, thats what I said. Yours is more simple, elegant, and easier to understand. But if that what people are into reading nowadays, then whatever.

[Bronco Billy]

whaaa...what have I created!!

 

I started this thread in anticipation that we would discuss relevant NFL teammates involved in the draft, how they relate to being on your fantasy squad, where you have the chance to draft these players (ADP), and which teammates you could target based on your expectations (etc)

 

 

 

 

You draft the players that you think will be the most successful at their position given their value when your turn comes up.

 

That they are on the same team is irrelevant - it's the same as drafting players on different teams but with the same bye week.

 

I've got Forte/Marshall combos in two leagues, a Rodgers/Nelson combo, etc

 

It just makes me watch bye weeks a little closer as I fill out my bench. No more, no less.

[darin3]

I will not target, nor will I avoid any same team combos of players.

 

 

 

This

 

You draft the players that you think will be the most successful at their position given their value when your turn comes up.

 

That they are on the same team is irrelevant - it's the same as drafting players on different teams but with the same bye week.

 

I've got Forte/Marshall combos in two leagues, a Rodgers/Nelson combo, etc

 

It just makes me watch bye weeks a little closer as I fill out my bench. No more, no less.

 

 

And that.

[Axe Elf]

No offense Baby Jane but I am really curious as to how you look. Your comments scream "Neck Beard" to me

 

 

Have you tried looking at my avatar?

[Shotskiees]

O my...

 

You've got the Chris Angel down pact

[Axe Elf]

Comparisons to Angels and to Christ... I guess there's no denying the divinity of Baby Jane!

[Scooby]

O my...

 

You've got the Chris Angel down pact

 

 

umm, it's down pat and no he doesn't

[Shotskiees]

Umm, touché