2013 DEEP Sleepers

[darin3]

OK, it's time to divert some of the attention away from ... uh ... nevermind.

 

But really, let's talk 2013 deep sleepers. I'm not talkin about your Russel Wilsons, Shane Vereens and Emmanuel Sanders. I'm talking guys you're taking as backups (or really, backups to backups). Let's say QBs ranked #25 and below (in "most" rankings currently available), RBs ranked #50 and below and WRs ranked #65 and below.

 

Who are your top-3 at each spot?

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

Matt Schaub (HOU): I've seen him higher than #25, and rightly so. What's not to like, really? Sure, HOU has a run-heavy offense, but he also has one of the best WRs in the game, an underrated (and supposedly healthy) TE, and an up-and-comer opposite said stud WR. If Schaub can stay healthy this season, I say he puts up starter-quality (read: 16th or better) numbers this season.

 

Brandon Weeden (CLE): Laugh if you must, but I *DID* say "deep sleepers". Take away his 4-INT opening week laugher and he had a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Not great, but something to build off. He had 4 20+ point games as a rookie. CLE is going to throw; they're going to have to. Weeden is making big strides this summer and is impressing the new regime. In best-ball formats he could provide some punch when your #1 has a stinker.

 

EJ Manuel (BUF): Had to include a rookie here. Obviously the rookie with the most promise given his draft spot, offense, etc. He could be in the Cam Newton / Colin Kaepernick mold or he could flop. Unfortunately the recent reporting shows he has a long way to go. But the Bills are going to give him the keys early and he has the measurables and ability to put up solid fantasy stats.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Kendall Hunter (SFO): Let others pass on him due to his Achilles injury/surgery. The Niners are taking their time bringing him back in camp and he *should* be back to full burst by the first quarter of the season. Frank Gore is no spring chicken and while LaMichael James is a nice gadget guy (and Marcus Lattimore a solid long-term project), Hunter would be first in line for a run-heavy offense.

 

Robert Turbin (SEA): You can basically cut and paste Hunter's info here, except there's no gadget guy to get in the way. Should Marshawn Lynch go down (or see less carries), Turbin would be the beneficiary, at least this season. Christine Michael is a solid long term prospect but Turbin should win the #2 role for the run-heavy Seahawk offense.

 

Zac Stacy (STL): Jeff Fisher is not one to play RB-carousel (or "RBBC" as we now like to dub it). Stacy *could* be the most talented back currently on the Rams' roster. My bet would be for Daryl Richardson to win the starting job from the outset, but Stacy will be following close behind. Isaiah Pead will make some noise but it'll be Stacy or Richardson you want your sights set on.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

 

Aaron Dobson (NEP): With the "other" Aaron Patriot soon to be locked up, this size-prototypical beast could become a red zone favorite of that Tom Brady guy. Who else is supposed to catch passes for this juggernaut offense? Danny Amendola and a sure-to-be-nicked-up Rob Gronkowski can't catch all the balls. Out of the rookie/free agent WRs that the Pats have acquired this off-season, it's Dobson that you should target.

 

Jarius Wright (MIN): This guy has "ifs" written all over him, but it's fun to speculate. Let's say Christian Ponder starts to "get it" (big if). Let's say after that happens, the Vikes decide to pass a bit more (not that big of an if, if Ponder starts to get it). And let's say Cordarelle Patterson has some rookie growing pains (not that big of an if at all). Wright showed some flashes in the last few games of the season, in Percy Harvin's stead. Am I intimating that Wright will reproduce Harvin's numbers? Golly no. But if you're looking for a deep sleeper at WR, this guy represents it to a T.

 

Harry Douglas (ATL): Douglas has shown in the past, when one of the "big Falcon WRs" goes down, that he's fully capable of coming in and catching passes that move the chains for their offense. He's a crisp route-runner with more than capable hands. Will he replace Roddy White or Julio Jones type of numbers? Nope, but in a pinch in PPR formats, you could do much worse... if White or Jones ever miss time (and given their circumstances, it could happen).

Edited July 25, 2013 by darin3

[euphy]

Darryl Richardson. He had some really nice games in relief of Steven Jackson.

 

Isiah Pead is a bust. When will you people realize it.

 

I am not going to get too excited about a rookie who has never pass protected.

[Axe Elf]

Yeah, he said RBs ranked below #50. Darryl Richardson is the #33 RB in 12 team leagues.

[Grogansghost]

Tough with the ADP restriction, but here are some of my hunches.

 

Quarterbacks:

 

Alex Smith (25 ADP) -In the past he's shown that he can be a high percentage passer. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball and has a talent for getting great play out of his QBs. KC should have a really strong offensive line - Dwayne Bo is a good target - and Charles should be great out of the backfield. In the 8.5 games Smith played he averaged about 15 pts - close to what Andy Dalton did who's going as the 14th QB and finished as the 12th QB last year. I don't think Smith will suddenly break out this year - but he's probably the best candidate to get low end RB1 QB1 numbers at this level.

 

Brandon Weeden (29 ADP) - They've improved the talent around him. Strong rookie TE along with a coach who loves to utilize the TE. New OC Norv Turner's downfield passing attack is supposed to be a better fit for Weeden's talents.

 

Matt Flynn (30 ADP) - He's shown some talent and the Raiders should be in shootouts most weeks. Has a chance to post nice garbage time numbers like Carson did last year.

 

runner ups - 31 & 32 -Nick Foles & Matt Barkley - I know Kelly emphasizes the run over the pass - but his QB will also be at the top in terms of plays per game (if everything works out of course). Maybe Vick still wins the job - but it doesn't sound like he separated himself much in OTAs. I read somewhere that Foles actually looked better.

 

Running Backs

 

Pierre Thomas - 51 ADP - I was surprised to see him this low. With Ivory gone that means there's one less mouth to feed. I don't see Sproles' role changing. Even if Ingram improved a lot (ADP 36) I still see Thomas involved.

 

Michael Bush - 61 ADP - last year he was ineffective because of injuries - but in 2011 - he put up roughly the same total yards as Forte (1300'ish-1400) - had a few more carries - and had 8 TDs to Forte's 4. His minimum role should be the goal line back - but he's only a year removed from a much bigger role.

 

Willis McGahee - 59 ADP - This is more of a reach, but I'm thinking he'll probably catch on somewhere after some injuries occur. Last year he was effective in Den - and I think they only let him go because they drafted Ball.

 

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman - 72 ADP - He showed enough in training camp last season that he won playing time while Welker was still on the team. He showed good chemistry with Brady last season - and he's the only WR who Brady has a history with. If Amendola goes down, he'd be the one to step into that role. I see Edelman starting along with Amendola and then one of the rookie's or Jenkins. If Edelman's foot holds out, which has had a long time to heal now, I think he has a big role this season. Obviously - health is the biggest concern with him - but if he can stay on the field I think he'll really outperform this ADP. Before the injury last season, the news out of training camp and the early games showed signs that he was starting to break out.

 

Rod Streater - ADP 70 - only averged 36 yards per game last season - but over the final five weeks he averaged 70 yards per week. Seemed like maybe the game was starting to slow down for him and he was starting to get it. Oakland should have to pass a lot. With DHB & Meyers gone, Moore seems to be the incumbent WR1 but I think Streater will be the next guy to step up.

 

Jacoby jones- ADP 75 - ****if you're in a league that gives points for return yardage. I think the chance of an increased role plus return yardage could make him viable. I'm not sure I'd trust him on just receptions allone. So - because most people aren't in return leagues - my 3rd guy would be Andrew hawkins (96) or A.J. Jenkins(71) - Cinci is waiting for either Hawkins or Sanu to become the viable WR option after Green. They both showed flashes last year. Jenkins - came into the league with high hopes and basically redshirted his rookie season - but he was with the team and learning the system for a full season. I think Jenkins will take Crabtree's spot while he's injured beating out Patton and Lockette.

Edited July 25, 2013 by Grogansghost

[BA Baracus]

I am starting to really like this Latavius Murray kid. Bigger than DMC and just as fast. Maybe he's not made of glass either...one can hope.

[Bronco Billy]

Liking Flynn to be a capable part of a QBBC in FF. I know there have been all sorts of excuses made for it, but the fact remains that the single biggest and best passing day in GB history belongs not to Rodgers or Favre but to Flynn. The guy uses the whole field and has good pocket presence and uncanny accuracy. Even with a team like OAK, he'll make his WRs look better than they are and he'll be throwing plenty. Way underrated given the match of talent, capability, and opportunity.

 

I'm not a huge fan of his limited game, but Shonn Greene is another guy who has fallen into a situation that optimizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. If he gets 10 to 12 carries a game including all the goal line work, he could end up a solid low FF RB2 or very good bye week RB.

 

Really keeping a very close eye on Kenbrell Thompkins in NE. You want a deep sleeper - here he is. Tremendous athlete and a pro-ready game, he's already gotten 1st team reps on a NE WR crew that has no established WR1 or WR2. Why haven't you heard of him if he's so great? He has a criminal record and is a former drug dealer and car thief. This kid was a classic lost inner city black youth who had no parental guidance and went bad in a big way. After his last arrest, he found a religious foundation and literally changed his life completely. He turned into a superior student as well as WR at CIN, where he landed after JC because of entrance eligibility issues at schools like 'Bama, TENN, and OU - who all wanted him. At CIN he suffered from terrible QB play. His past kept him from being drafted, but then he falls into NE's hands. Really pulling for this kid not only because I think his story of such a turnaround is so spectacular but also because his game has a very real possibility of blossoming into a WR1 in the bigs. He has the tools and attitude to do it now.

[Axe Elf]

Alex Smith (25 ADP) ... he's probably the best candidate to get low end RB1 numbers at this level.

 

 

Unfortunately, low end RB1 numbers (10-12 pts per week) are pretty crappy for a QB.

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

Liking Flynn to be a capable part of a QBBC in FF. I know there have been all sorts of excuses made for it, but the fact remains that the single biggest and best passing day in GB history belongs not to Rodgers or Favre but to Flynn. The guy uses the whole field and has good pocket presence and uncanny accuracy. Even with a team like OAK, he'll make his WRs look better than they are and he'll be throwing plenty. Way underrated given the match of talent, capability, and opportunity.

 

I'm not a huge fan of his limited game, but Shonn Greene is another guy who has fallen into a situation that optimizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. If he gets 10 to 12 carries a game including all the goal line work, he could end up a solid low FF RB2 or very good bye week RB.

 

Really keeping a very close eye on Kenbrell Thompkins in NE. You want a deep sleeper - here he is. Tremendous athlete and a pro-ready game, he's already gotten 1st team reps on a NE WR crew that has no established WR1 or WR2. Why haven't you heard of him if he's so great? He has a criminal record and is a former drug dealer and car thief. This kid was a classic lost inner city black youth who had no parental guidance and went bad in a big way. After his last arrest, he found a religious foundation and literally changed his life completely. He turned into a superior student as well as WR at CIN, where he landed after JC because of entrance eligibility issues at schools like 'Bama, TENN, and OU - who all wanted him. At CIN he suffered from terrible QB play. His past kept him from being drafted, but then he falls into NE's hands. Really pulling for this kid not only because I think his story of such a turnaround is so spectacular but also because his game has a very real possibility of blossoming into a WR1 in the bigs. He has the tools and attitude to do it now.

 

 

Not sure where this is coming from. He had a decent showing at OTAs, but also was seen running laps. Not sure I read anything about him seeing time with the 1's.

[Bronco Billy]

Not sure where this is coming from. He had a decent showing at OTAs, but also was seen running laps. Not sure I read anything about him seeing time with the 1's.

 

 

Link

 

][/b]

Source: ESPN Boston

Jun 14 - 2:52 PM

 

Undrafted rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins has received first-team reps at OTAs.

 

Michael Jenkins, special teamer Kamar Aiken, and UDFA Thompkins have reportedly been the "primary outside receivers," working ahead of Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, and Donald Jones. Thompkins went undrafted due to production and character concerns, although he's turned his life around and is a prospect to monitor. This isn't the first time we've heard he's looked good in practice.

 

Jul 21 - 8:03 AM

 

 

According to ESPN Boston, Friday's release of Donald Jones was tied at least in part to UDFA WR Kenbrell Thompkins' "strong work" at spring practices.

 

The Pats salvaged a $200,000 training camp reporting bonus by cutting Jones, but Thompkins practiced so well that he earned first-team reps by the end of minicamp. Reliable beat writer Mike Reiss deems Thompkins "the under-the-radar Patriots offensive player who has arguably built more momentum than any other." Worth a look in all dynasty leagues, Thompkins is also a favorite of Rookie Scouting Portfolio's Matt Waldman, who has a terrific eye for talent

Edited July 25, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[darin3]

Liking Flynn to be a capable part of a QBBC in FF. I know there have been all sorts of excuses made for it, but the fact remains that the single biggest and best passing day in GB history belongs not to Rodgers or Favre but to Flynn. The guy uses the whole field and has good pocket presence and uncanny accuracy. Even with a team like OAK, he'll make his WRs look better than they are and he'll be throwing plenty. Way underrated given the match of talent, capability, and opportunity.

 

 

With all due respect, who really gives a crap about who owns the best passing day in Packer history? It was a meaningless game against what was a Swiss cheese defense all season. And since this was the last game of the season, the Lions had their scrubs in. Again, scrubs off what was a crappy defense to begin with.

 

Honestly, I think I could have went for five bills and 4 scores against that defense.

 

What has he done besides that ONE game (that should have a huge asterisk by it in the first place)?

 

Plus, not much to like in Oakland receiver-wise. No more DHB. Rod Streater is getting some love as a deep sleeper, but aside from that.... Denarius Moore?

 

Sorry, not buying it. Seattle brought the guy in and he got beat out by a rookie. Granted, Wilson turned out to be pretty solid, but that has to say something too.

 

If anything, I'd look to Tyler Wilson to be the OAK QB to own .... at least in the long term. Far better measurables and potential than a guy that was standing back in the pocket throwing darts against a bunch of NFL Europe players a couple years ago.

Edited July 25, 2013 by darin3

[Bronco Billy]

With all due respect, who really gives a crap about who owns the best passing day in Packer history? It was a meaningless game against what was a Swiss cheese defense all season. And since this was the last game of the season, the Lions had their scrubs in. Again, scrubs off what was a crappy defense to begin with.

 

 

You, apparently.

 

But Favre in his entire career playing as bad or worse Ds, and Rodgers doing the same (he also played against the same DET D) did not put up the same numbers that Flynn did. That's simply a fact. And DET was a team at the time who was still in the hunt for the 5th playoff seed while GB was taking the day off after having locked up its spot (hence Flynn starting). That's not to say Flynn is better than Favre or Rodgers, but rather that he showed that on his best day he can perform at that level. That means that kind of performance is in his system. The question is how much of it is repeatable.

 

As to being beaten out by Wilson? Well, given Wilson's performance as a rookie, I'd say that would have happened to half the starting QBs in the NFL at least - plus Flynn was the one who got to throw to COCDFJ and TWUO when they were being tried in SEA, and they were both pathetic and couldn't even manage to run decent routes.

 

 

It should also be noted that Flynn played very well in a start in NE when he had to take over for an injured Rodgers. Maybe you could have thrown for 4 TDs and beaten Brady in NE that night, though. But hey, you're free to completely dismiss him because he couldn't beat out Rodgers and then couldn't beat out Wilson.

Edited July 25, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

Link

 

 

 

Yeah, that was Reiss' take. Others haven't been quite so glowing. I saw the first report too. Others said Jenkins took 60% of 1st team reps, Aiken about 30% and Thompkins the last 10% or so. We'll see. I hadn't seen the Friday report yet. There's definitely openings to be earned in NE. If Gronk starts season on PUP the leading returning receiver in yards is Edelman with about 250 I think it was. Should be fun to watch.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

Yeah, that was Reiss' take. Others haven't been quite so glowing. I saw the first report too. Others said Jenkins took 60% of 1st team reps, Aiken about 30% and Thompkins the last 10% or so. We'll see. I hadn't seen the Friday report yet. There's definitely openings to be earned in NE. If Gronk starts season on PUP the leading returning receiver in yards is Edelman with about 250 I think it was. Should be fun to watch.

 

 

Agreed. But this is supposed to be a deep sleeper list. I'd say Thompkins qualifies. What do you think?

[darin3]

You, apparently.

 

But Favre in his entire career playing as bad or worse Ds, and Rodgers doing the same (he also played against the same DET D) did not put up the same numbers that Flynn did. That's simply a fact. And DET was a team at the time who was still in the hunt for the 5th playoff seed while GB was taking the day off after having locked up its spot (hence Flynn starting). That's not to say Flynn is better than Favre or Rodgers, but rather that he showed that on his best day he can perform at that level. That means that kind of performance is in his system. The question is how much of it is repeatable.

 

As to being beaten out by Wilson? Well, given Wilson's performance as a rookie, I'd say that would have happened to half the starting QBs in the NFL at least - plus Flynn was the one who got to throw to COCDFJ and TWUO when they were being tried in SEA, and they were both pathetic and couldn't even manage to run decent routes.

 

 

It should also be noted that Flynn played very well in a start in NE when he had to take over for an injured Rodgers. Maybe you could have thrown for 4 TDs and beaten Brady in NE that night, though. But hey, you're free to completely dismiss him because he couldn't beat out Rodgers and then couldn't beat out Wilson.

 

 

Fine, so Detroit was still in the playoff hunt. They were the #23-ranked defense that year (#22 vs. the pass). So, safe to say they didn't have a very good defense.

 

Is that performance repeatable?

 

You're going to use a game against the Patriots (#30 against the pass), where the opposing offense HAD TO THROW to keep up with the Brady machine as your "other reference"?

 

 

No, I don't care about those two anamoly games. Let's see what he does against better defenses, with a lesser OL and lesser pass catchers.

 

But hey, I did say deep sleepers.... guess I'd rather reach elsewhere.

Edited July 25, 2013 by darin3

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

Fine, so Detroit was still in the playoff hunt. They were the #23-ranked defense that year (#22 vs. the pass). So, safe to say they didn't have a very good defense.

 

Is that performance repeatable?

 

You're going to use a game against the Patriots (#30 against the pass), where the opposing offense HAD TO THROW to keep up with the Brady machine as your "other reference"?

 

 

No, I don't care about those two anamoly games. Let's see what he does against better defenses, with a lesser OL and lesser pass catchers.

 

But hey, I did say deep sleepers.... guess I'd rather reach elsewhere.

 

 

Good. Search elsewhere. A guy had exactly 2 NFL starts, towards the end of each season when he hasn't been getting reps all year, against 2 playoff teams - one on the road in a nationally televised game - and he plays very well in both.

 

Hey, maybe they were complete flukes that he played the two best games of his entire life on those two nights. Or maybe there's a chance there's something there - which is what finding a sleeper is all about.

 

But you seem awfully invested in dismissing any possibility. Not sure why, especially if you saw him play in those games. But it seems important to you, so dismiss away.

[darin3]

Good. Search elsewhere. A guy had exactly 2 NFL starts, towards the end of each season when he hasn't been getting reps all year, against 2 playoff teams - one on the road in a nationally televised game - and he plays very well in both.

 

Hey, maybe they were complete flukes that he played the two best games of his entire life on those two nights. Or maybe there's a chance there's something there - which is what finding a sleeper is all about.

 

But you seem awfully invested in dismissing any possibility. Not sure why, especially if you saw him play in those games. But it seems important to you, so dismiss away.

 

 

Not important to me at all. To borrow an Ass Elf phrase, it seems you're getting a little butt-hurt over someone having a differing opinion than yours. Guess that's par for the course with Bronco Billy though, right?

 

I saw the GB/DET game. It was impressive.

 

I think he's painfully average, and contend that will be painfully evident this season. But again, it's a discourse on deep sleepers so he qualifies.

[delfamdelfam]

Not important to me at all. To borrow an Ass Elf phrase, it seems you're getting a little butt-hurt over someone having a differing opinion than yours. Guess that's par for the course with Bronco Billy though, right?

 

I saw the GB/DET game. It was impressive.

 

I think he's painfully average, and contend that will be painfully evident this season. But again, it's a discourse on deep sleepers so he qualifies.

 

I think your the one that is butt-hurt over someone having a differing opinion. Bronco Billy laid out his opinion in a very concise argument with facts and you fired back at him for no reason seeming like your opinion was the only correct one.

[Bronco Billy]

 

I think your the one that is butt-hurt over someone having a differing opinion. Bronco Billy laid out his opinion in a very concise argument with facts and you fired back at him for no reason seeming like your opinion was the only correct one.

 

 

No worries. Opinions differ. He just seemed awfully adamant while willingly ignoring overt evidence. But I'd rather have guys looking for pissing contests than a bunch of head nodders.

 

Now you'll have to excuse me while I salve my butt.

[darin3]

No worries. Opinions differ. He just seemed awfully adamant while willingly ignoring overt evidence. But I'd rather have guys looking for pissing contests than a bunch of head nodders.

 

Now you'll have to excuse me while I salve my butt.

 

 

I'd rather have a larger sample size until I call something overt evidence.... especially if it's a guy behind a janky OL throwing to also-ran WRs. But maybe that's just me.

 

And no, I won't be drafting Flynn in any format... best ball or not.

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

Agreed. But this is supposed to be a deep sleeper list. I'd say Thompkins qualifies. What do you think?

 

 

Oh, I agree. He's very deep. The release of Jones was surprising as well. I had heard it was as much to do with overall depth and his lack of speed compared to the rest of the roster as any one player's performance. I'll be watching closely as pre-season gets going.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

I'd rather have a larger sample size

 

 

Yeah, it would be great if deep sleepers had large samples sizes of outstanding performances. You could kick ass drafting a bunch of guys like that after rd 10.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[darin3]

Yeah, it would be great if deep sleepers had large samples sizes of outstanding performances. You could kick ass drafting a bunch of guys like that after rd 10.

 

 

Matt Schaub = much larger sample size. Heck, even Brandon Weeden has nearly EIGHT TIMES the number of starts as Matt Flynn.

 

Once again, I'll concede... we're talking deep sleepers here. So

[REZ]

It was good for a few posts

kinda went off the tracks in the middle

[Clubfoothead]

It is all right in front of Darrius Heyward-Bey for the taking. His ADP has him currently going in the mid-teens (Rounds 13-18). Too low.

[loaf]