Trent Richardson: This year's Ryan Matthews?

[stethant]

So last year Ryan Matthews was thought of very highly (by FFL rankings) going into preseason before he broke his collarbone. He was the go-to RB in a Norv Turner offense with a high ceiling. Turns out collarbone break #1 was only the beginning of the downward spiral.

 

Flash forward to Trent Richardson this year. Talented RB with an injury-marred first season now gets to be the focal point of a Norv Turner offense. I'll grant you that Trent Richardson has a better pedigree coming from Alabama than from Fresno State, but as I'm evaluating the top RB talent a bit more carefully I've started to wonder about this comparison.

 

Injuries are tough to predict and can be almost random. Thing is Richardson was banged up all last year and has been banged up in the offseason and dinged a few days ago, requiring him to sit.

 

Is this all smoke with no fire?

[chinatown dragons]

being a T Rich owner (and former Matthews owner, but never again), I HOPE Richardson isn't anywhere close to Matthews....

 

Richardson played through injuries last year, and had a very solid rookie season. They said he is in great shape, 8 lbs lighter, and I expect top 5 year out of him this season...

[WashingtonD]

Norv has had a deft touch with RBs over his career. Mathews was one of his few "failures" if you can call him that and mostly based on fragility not talent (though there were some issues there as well).

 

Add in that the Cleveland line is superior to the Chargers and TRich is a beast whereas Mathews is a shetland pony and I think you'll see we are looking at two very different stories.

[delfamdelfam]

Mathews was a bust since his rookie year, Richardson had a great rookie year. I don't see the comparison.

[hooknladder]

So last year Ryan Matthews was thought of very highly (by FFL rankings) going into preseason before he broke his collarbone. He was the go-to RB in a Norv Turner offense with a high ceiling. Turns out collarbone break #1 was only the beginning of the downward spiral.

 

Flash forward to Trent Richardson this year. Talented RB with an injury-marred first season now gets to be the focal point of a Norv Turner offense. I'll grant you that Trent Richardson has a better pedigree coming from Alabama than from Fresno State, but as I'm evaluating the top RB talent a bit more carefully I've started to wonder about this comparison.

 

Injuries are tough to predict and can be almost random. Thing is Richardson was banged up all last year and has been banged up in the offseason and dinged a few days ago, requiring him to sit.

 

Is this all smoke with no fire?

 

 

 

.....-yeah, sombody is smoking something.

[Tripleshot]

I went to work and used an electron microscope and still couldn't see any comparison between the two.

[Grogansghost]

I didn't see many Cleveland games last year. The 3.6 yards per carry Richardson got seems like a red flag to me. I'm assuming part of the issue was facing a loaded box most games with a rookie QB. However, you'd still expect a top RB to average more than that.

 

I know they've taken steps to add talent - but I'm not sure if Weeden is going to be so much better than last year that teams will need to respect him as a passing threat.

 

Also, does the low ypc indicate that Richardson just got too beat up at Alabama?

 

Not claiming to have any answers to those questions - but the low ypc and state of the offense give me pause considering that he usually goes early in the first round. It also looks like he has a pretty tough rushing schedule.

 

 

Like Stethant, I have a tough time trusting fully in Norv considering what he did to the chargers. But maybe he'll do much better focusing solely on being a coordinator rather than a head coach.

Edited August 6, 2013 by Grogansghost

[Henry Muto]

Mathews was a bust since his rookie year, Richardson had a great rookie year. I don't see the comparison.

 

Mathews had a good 2011 season which is one of the reasons he was a top 5 pick in 2012 until he got hurt. 240 PPR points in 14 games with Tolbert stealing all the TD's.

[Big Country]

Not saying he is the same player, but Ladainian Tomlinson averaged about 3.6 YPC his rookie year and I'd say he turned out okay. Last year TRich had broken ribs for a fair number of his games and also had his knee scoped in the preseason. With those behind him, no reason to expect a regression.

 

Add in Norv Turner's history of utilizing a workhorse, and I'd say we are primed for a back who will get a ton of touches, which equals a ton of opportunities to put FF points in your lineup. Here are some numbers (credit to another board's poster who pulled these in a discussion on TRich):

 

Ricky Williams (2002): 383 rushes, 47 receptions (16 games)

Ricky Williams (2003): 392 rushes, 50 receptions (16 games)

LaMont Jordan (2005): 272 rushes, 70 receptions (14 games)

Frank Gore (2006): 312 rushes, 61 receptions (16 games)

LaDainian Tomlinson (2007): 315 rushes, 60 receptions (16 games)

LaDainian Tomlinson (2008): 292 rushes, 52 receptions (16 games)

Edited August 6, 2013 by Big Country

[irish]

Mathews was a bust since his rookie year, Richardson had a great rookie year. I don't see the comparison.

 

 

Agreed. T-Rich could very likely be the #1 RB when this year is over and I wouldn't doubt that drafters are calling his name 1st overall in drafts next summer.

 

He and Mathews should never be compared other than they play the same position. Besides, Mathews has a mangina and T-Rich could make him his baby mama.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Now I know who Irish is taking with the 4th pick in BLNY

 

I think T Rich is Emmitt Smith in the making, although T Rich's shoulder injury came premature compared to Emmit's (ability wise, not stats). Now that Norv is there, I like T Rich to be solid for awhile.

[irish]

Now I know who Irish is taking with the 4th pick in BLNY

 

I think T Rich is Emmitt Smith in the making, although T Rich's shoulder injury came premature compared to Emmit's (ability wise, not stats). Now that Norv is there, I like T Rich to be solid for awhile.

 

 

IMO, I'm sitting pretty in the 4th spot as I can just wait to see who falls to me. I just drafted in the ladder and watched as Charles went 1st, Martin 2nd and I grabbed up ADP in the 3rd spot. Any way it shakes out, I'll be happy. I'm thinking that I should've taken the 5th or 6th spot actually.

[Big Country]

Have the 5th pick in FFPC this year, thus I will be heavily invested in researching TRich, Spiller, Rice, McCoy as well as Foster and Charles, though trend is for those 2 to be gone in the top 4.

[Goopster24]

The more I read about Richardson, the more I like. Like the Turner angle, like what I saw last year, like the workhorse element, like the odds of Browns offense improving overall. I'm hoping he falls to me in my home keeper league with the 7th pick. Between him, Spiller, and McCoy, I think I'll go Richardson.

[irish]

The more I read about Richardson, the more I like. Like the Turner angle, like what I saw last year, like the workhorse element, like the odds of Browns offense improving overall. I'm hoping he falls to me in my home keeper league with the 7th pick. Between him, Spiller, and McCoy, I think I'll go Richardson.

 

 

i agree and i wouldn't even consider mccoy over t-rich, however, spiller should be a monster as well. i like spiller a lot this year as well. i think the rookie qb and wr, along with stevie johnson are gonna be special and open things up underneath. spiller should have all kinds of room and opportunity, plus the news about the vomit thing only helps.

Edited August 7, 2013 by irish

[Goopster24]

Irish, who would you view as a bigger "risk", Richardson or Spiller?

[irish]

Irish, who would you view as a bigger "risk", Richardson or Spiller?

 

 

I am a fantasy owner who likes to take risk when the potential is there. To me, Richardson is a bit more risky as even though he played through his injuries and showed to be a tough guy, I fear that he presents more of an injury risk and even if he doesn't miss any games, he could be hampered by them. However, on the other side, I believe Freddy Jackson will have more PT as compared to anyone behind T-Rich, especially in regard to receptions and maybe even GL looks. T-Rich has no one to take touches and will only come out if one of his legs have fallen off.

 

So I can see both finishing in the Top 5 and would give T-Rich the edge because of PT. He had more carries, targets and receptions than Spiller and I expect the same this year.

[stevegrab]

FYI T-Rich is being held out of the Browns pre-season game against the Rams on Thursday. Some fans are already panicking "he's hurt worse than they're telling us" "trust me, this guy will be hurt his whole career".

 

Hilarious, his latest injury was from being kicked in the shin (the same one he had a strained muscel on last year).

 

The guy missed one game, played tough through some injuries and he's alreadying getting labeled as a guy with injury problems.

[irish]

FYI T-Rich is being held out of the Browns pre-season game against the Rams on Thursday. Some fans are already panicking "he's hurt worse than they're telling us" "trust me, this guy will be hurt his whole career".

 

Hilarious, his latest injury was from being kicked in the shin (the same one he had a strained muscel on last year).

 

The guy missed one game, played tough through some injuries and he's alreadying getting labeled as a guy with injury problems.

 

 

Well, it certainly comes with the turf. However, I have said it before and I'll say it again, I love the guy, have him as one of my keepers in a league where I have several great options and I believe that he'll surely be Top 5 and has as good a chance as any to finish as the #1 RB. So sure, he has been labeled as a guy who struggles with injuries but as long as he continues to play through them, I'll take 'em. You just have to have some concern of what he's actually capable of and if he'll ever reached his full potential.

[delusions of grandeur]

There are guys who are always injured like McFadden, then there are guys who are always banged up, but not bad enough to where they can play through it most of the time. I'd compare him more to a Steven Jackson who might miss a game or 2, but win you way more.

 

And there's not even enough of a pattern yet to suggest that he'll even miss games or be hampered.

 

I love this kids potential and situation. The upside exceeds the risk by a pretty good margin.

Edited August 8, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[Bronco Billy]

Don't make the mistake and underestimate the value of the improvements in the CLE D when evaluating Richardson. PIT has already come back to the pack and BAL looks destined to also do so with the losses on both O and D. CLE will not only want to run the ball a ton with a guy like Weeden at QB, but should be able to as they keep opponents from getting away from them on the scoreboard.

 

That said, Richardson has a well documented injury history going back to college. It seems that he doesn't have the body to sustain a full workload at the NFL level and/or doesn't have the tolerance for pain to do so. His tolerance was clearly questioned at Alabama before he was drafted. Personally I think it is a combination of the two. You also won't get near the production out of Hardesty if you handcuff him and Richardson goes down.

 

I would tend to let Richardson slide a bit more than most in a draft, and for the Richardson downside that is there would likely pick CJ, McCoy, Rice, Morris, Forte, and maybe even SJax before I would take Richardson, meaning I would miss out on Richardson completely. I just don't buy that he'll get through a full season unscathed and at least getting diminished work, if not missing games, through a full season.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[Grogansghost]

I am a fantasy owner who likes to take risk when the potential is there. To me, Richardson is a bit more risky as even though he played through his injuries and showed to be a tough guy, I fear that he presents more of an injury risk and even if he doesn't miss any games, he could be hampered by them. However, on the other side, I believe Freddy Jackson will have more PT as compared to anyone behind T-Rich, especially in regard to receptions and maybe even GL looks. T-Rich has no one to take touches and will only come out if one of his legs have fallen off.

 

So I can see both finishing in the Top 5 and would give T-Rich the edge because of PT. He had more carries, targets and receptions than Spiller and I expect the same this year.

 

 

I think we all agree that both guys have great potential with some risk. Another thing to consider about Spiller would be that Fred Jackson could be had for very little - and has shown that he can perform - whereas we don't really know who's behind Richardson.

 

I wouldn't want to draft Fred Jackson and expect him to carry a full load for a full season - but I think he could provide pretty good insurance for Spiller.

[Grogansghost]

That said, Richardson has a well documented injury history going back to college. It seems that he doesn't have the body to sustain a full workload at the NFL level and/or doesn't have the tolerance for pain to do so. His tolerance was clearly questioned at Alabama before he was drafted. Personally I think it is a combination of the two. You also won't get near the production out of Hardesty if you handcuff him and Richardson goes down.

 

 

Good point about the improved D -- the opportunities will definitely be there for him. it's the injuries that stand out for the skeptics. I didn't watch many Cleveland games last year, and knew Richardson as a name in college - but saw more highlights than full Alabama games. For people more familiar with him as a player - do the injuries seem to stem from his running style? over use? body make up? or just bad luck?

 

I know that can be tough to call - and maybe there's no real consensus - but I'm wondering if people who've watched him a lot have an opinion.

 

For example - a guy like Welker gets labeled as durable/tough -- and while I certainly wouldn't argue either of those points, I think it misses his greatest attribute for staying on the field -- he had a real knack for always missing the big hits. Amendola has been labeled injury prone -- but I think that overlooks that both of his injuries were pretty freaky and shouldn't reoccur - the question about him should be - were those injuries just bad luck? or does he tend to take more hits because he's not as aware? or did he take more hits because Bradford was hanging him out to dry? Not trying to derail this thread into a discussion of WRs -- just wondering aloud (online?) if anyone's seen a real pattern to Richardson's injury history.

[Axe Elf]

Between him, Spiller, and McCoy, I think I'll go Richardson.

 

 

lol

 

That's like saying, "Between Tony Gonzalez, Marcedes Lewis and Dustin Keller, I think I'll go Gonzalez."

 

Yeah, me too.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

Good point about the improved D -- the opportunities will definitely be there for him. it's the injuries that stand out for the skeptics. I didn't watch many Cleveland games last year, and knew Richardson as a name in college - but saw more highlights than full Alabama games. For people more familiar with him as a player - do the injuries seem to stem from his running style? over use? body make up? or just bad luck?

 

I know that can be tough to call - and maybe there's no real consensus - but I'm wondering if people who've watched him a lot have an opinion.

 

For example - a guy like Welker gets labeled as durable/tough -- and while I certainly wouldn't argue either of those points, I think it misses his greatest attribute for staying on the field -- he had a real knack for always missing the big hits. Amendola has been labeled injury prone -- but I think that overlooks that both of his injuries were pretty freaky and shouldn't reoccur - the question about him should be - were those injuries just bad luck? or does he tend to take more hits because he's not as aware? or did he take more hits because Bradford was hanging him out to dry? Not trying to derail this thread into a discussion of WRs -- just wondering aloud (online?) if anyone's seen a real pattern to Richardson's injury history.

 

 

Alabama's coaches questioned his toughness publicly. That is something that perks my ears up - as well as his history.