C.J. Spiller... gotta wonder

[DMD]

Spiller is very popular this year and he was the #6 RB last season in standard scoring. His new HC Doug Marrone wants a big-time rushing game and by all accounts wants to run Spiller all day, every day. Plenty of references to the 30 touch games etc.

 

You know. He has never done that.

 

In the NFL, here is his record so far:

 

2010 - 74-283-0 rush, 24-157-1 rcv, 98 touches

2011 - 107-561-4 rush, 39-269-2 rcv, 146 touches

2012 - 207-1244-6, 43-459-2, 250 touches

 

At Clemson:

2006 - 129-938-10 rush, 19-210-2, 148 touches

2007 - 145-768-3 rush, 34-271-2, 179 touches

2008 - 116-629-7 rush, 34-436-3, 150 touches

2009 - 216-1212-12 rush, 36-503-4, 252 touches

 

So he has never had more than 252 touches in a season. 30 Touches per game is a pace for 480 touches or close to twice what he has ever done. Can he last?

 

Be interesting to see. All the other top RBs have far more in-season touches than Spiller.

[delfamdelfam]

not worth the risk in my opinion. You can't win fantasy in the first round but you can lose it, which is why I'm staying away from a guy like Spiller and would much rather take Megatron or even Ray Rice instead.

[Cowboyz1]

I just wonder how long those knees are going to hold up. I mean the guy has over performed on them up till now IMO. I just can't pull the trigger early on the guy. Too much risk

[Bronco Billy]

I don't know about bumping him down. You can get his handcuff for a song and Jackson should put up very good numbers should Spiller falter.

 

Spiller is destined to be a bonafide bellcow RB when healthy - and again, his history with this workload is an unknown, he has no history to promote or detract from with it.

 

This looks like classic over thinking to me.

 

ETA - Full disclosure: I do not own Spiller or Jackson in any league.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Bronco Billy

[loaf]

You just don't know how he's going to fare. Could be one of the all-time great fantasy seasons ever. But there's too much uncertainty with taking him at 5 o 6 or 7. I'll pass this year and see what happens. He won't go up too far in drafts next season so...he's pretty close to his ceiling, draft position wise

[Grogansghost]

it's easy to look at the lack of carries and worry about his durability.

 

of course - the devil's advocate would be quick to point out that there should be a ton of tread left on his tires.

 

IIRC, however, his injury last year happened in the Dolphin's game and seemed to just be a bad shot to the knee - i.e. it seemed unlucky to me, rather than a durability issue. He's 5'11" and 200lbs according to the Bills website - so he's not as small as I thought.

 

In an auction draft I think I'd pay more to get the guys I view as safer instead of taking C.J. Besides wondering how he'd hold up to the workload - he'll have a new QB, a weaker OL with Levitre gone, and the team will be adjusting to a new coach/system.

 

In a regular snake draft, the guys I view as safer would definitely go ahead of him. I'd take him and make sure I got Fred Jackson - like BB pointed out.

 

He seems to be a real boom or bust player this year. If he busts, hopefully Fred Jackson would still have enough to be adequate.

[Mrom]

What scares me is that he has an unproven qb behind him. If Manuel can't throw, teams will be packing the box on Spiller.

[HighKite]

What scares me is that he has an unproven qb behind him. If Manuel can't throw, teams will be packing the box on Spiller.

 

 

This is my thinking as well and why I will draft around him.

 

As far as injuries go, most of the backs going in the 1st round have some kind of injury history.

[SecondString]

Spiller is very popular this year and he was the #6 RB last season in standard scoring. His new HC Doug Marrone wants a big-time rushing game and by all accounts wants to run Spiller all day, every day. Plenty of references to the 30 touch games etc.

 

You know. He has never done that.

 

In the NFL, here is his record so far:

 

2010 - 74-283-0 rush, 24-157-1 rcv, 98 touches

2011 - 107-561-4 rush, 39-269-2 rcv, 146 touches

2012 - 207-1244-6, 43-459-2, 250 touches

 

At Clemson:

2006 - 129-938-10 rush, 19-210-2, 148 touches

2007 - 145-768-3 rush, 34-271-2, 179 touches

2008 - 116-629-7 rush, 34-436-3, 150 touches

2009 - 216-1212-12 rush, 36-503-4, 252 touches

 

So he has never had more than 252 touches in a season. 30 Touches per game is a pace for 480 touches or close to twice what he has ever done. Can he last?

 

Be interesting to see. All the other top RBs have far more in-season touches than Spiller.

 

It's not like they have to go the entire sixteen games and then evaluate and say, "That didn't work". If it's too much, dial it back on the fly.

Edited August 9, 2013 by SecondString

[Djgb13]

Will I take him in the first round? No. If hes available in the second round then yes I will gladly take him but I dont think he will be available to me then. If by some miracle he is then I see it as a great pick. Just not a first round pick in my opinion and that is coming from someone who is a big CJ Spiller fan from back to his days at Clemson

[Tripleshot]

Watching Spiller last season I can honestly say he is as electric with the ball as anyone I can remember. But that comes with a potential downside. Players like him are always looking to get more yards, and while they make some spectacular highlight plays, they put themselves at more risk for that one, big hit that knocks them out for multiple games. Figure in he's not a partucularly big guy, and it makes me worry. He's also likely not going to get many goal line carries, so his stat lines are going to look a lot like last year: a lot of 100+ total yards and no TDs. Call me overly cautious or call me crazy, but I tend to think that his ceiling is closer to last year's stats than anything more.

[Djgb13]

Well you gotta see how the coach has him play in these preseason games. Granted they wont used him like they will in the regular season games but the coach states that he wants Spiller to have 20-30 touches a game. With a statement like that I think he might have Spiller in during redzone attempts since he believes that Spiller will make the plays to get them in there. Jackson might come in for short yardage work such as 1-2 yard attempts. But it will be interesting to see how they utilize Spiller

[doobwaa]

^{Ever just have one of those players that you pray isn't available with your 1st round pick when youre in one of the first 5 slots? Then he's still there and you beat yourself up and not pick him....then as soon as he passes you PRAY LIKE HELL that he makes it back to you in Round 2?}

Edited August 9, 2013 by doobwaa

[The Waiver Hounds]

I don't know about bumping him down. You can get his handcuff for a song and Jackson should put up very good numbers should Spiller falter.

 

Spiller is destined to be a bonafide bellcow RB when healthy - and again, his history with this workload is an unknown, he has no history to promote or detract from with it.

 

This looks like classic over thinking to me.

 

ETA - Full disclosure: I do not own Spiller or Jackson in any league.

 

 

Most sensible post here. Overthinking without a doubt. I'd be more concerned with his supporting cast holding him back than the man himself.

[Pistolkid]

I have the 4th pick in a 14 man league and if AP, Foster and Martin are all gone, I'm instantly going to select Spiller and I'm not even going to give it a second thought. If you are really concerned about Spiller, take FJax a round or two early for a cuff. I'm going for the gold, not the "safe route" this year. If I happen to lose because of it, so be it. But I've liked what I've seen out of Spiller last year and am going to stick with my gut here.

[Papajohn]

I have the 4th pick in a 14 man league and if AP, Foster and Martin are all gone, I'm instantly going to select Spiller and I'm not even going to give it a second thought. If you are really concerned about Spiller, take FJax a round or two early for a cuff. I'm going for the gold, not the "safe route" this year. If I happen to lose because of it, so be it. But I've liked what I've seen out of Spiller last year and am going to stick with my gut here.

 

 

Charles?

[Pistolkid]

Charles?

 

 

Again, call me crazy. Just a gut feeling. We've certainly seen running backs that fall in the mid first round range on average draft position do better than 2nd and 3rd overall projected picks. Charles will obviously get some pretty nice yardage if healthy, but will he get the TDs to merit him in the top 3? Well, I don't know...

Edited August 12, 2013 by Pistolkid

[Whiskey Pimp]

Charles?

 

 

+1