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Chris Johnson last year


MikesVikes
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In 2012, Johnson had rushing TDs from 16, 83, 80, 17, 94, and 2 yards out. I can't imagine that any RB has had a 48.7 avg Td run before. His rushing stats were 1243 yards in 276 carries for a 4.5 ypc average. Take his td yards away and he ends up with only 951 yards in 270 carries for a 3.5 ypc. Quite a different story if you take those 6 explosive plays away.

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The number of 100 yard and/or td games was six last year. Long td runs changed three of those games to become 100 yard games.

 

He had a 141 yard game with no td. He scored a 2 yd run in a 56 yard game, and he scored his 17 yard run on a 160 yard game. That would've been his high points for the season.

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Adrian Peterson had 11 100 yard and/or td games last year. 14 if you include his combined yards. You could add 3 more 100 yard game to cj2k with combined yards. Adrian also had long td runs last year with four of them. Three of those four long td scoring games would still be 100 yard games if you exclude those long runs.

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Just a comparison to show Adrian. When AP breaks one, he tends to tack on to a 100 yard game and turn it into a 200 yarder. CJ2k is a pure home run hitter in comparison. I was looking at his stats and that really jumped out. He was either boom or bust. It was also odd that a running back would average a 40+ touchdown run. Don't you think?

 

Plus I was wondering if anyone was thinking that CJ looked like a solid RB1 on your team after his performance last night.

 

I know that there are some here, maybe even besides Baby Jane, that look at 1243 yards rushing last year and think they have a solid start.

Edited by MikesVikes
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Doesn't seem fair to compare any RB to Peterson. And I think Chris Johnson will have a nice year if that O line stays intact. Possibly the ideal RB2 in the draft. Long runs are part of the game. A lot of guys' stats look pedestrian without the one long run in a given game.

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I think CJ will make a good showing this year, based on his o-line's improvement and some comments his teammates have made this preseason. I'd be thrilled to have gotten him at 3.03 in any league, and would heavily consider him in round two with few qualms. I would not be surprised to see him gain more yardage, though not necessarily more fantasy points, then AP this year, based on how 2k rushers historilcally perform the year after.

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I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here. I think everyone understands that CJ1k gets a good portion of his stats/points from breaking a long td run and not by getting 100 yards on 20-25 touches. Also, why is AP part of this thread?

 

AP just adds some context...I see nothing wrong with including him for that reason.

Why would you take the long ones away? Does your league not award points on long TD's?

 

It adds perspective. We look at consistency for players and not just their end of year point totals. So an exercise like this can have value. I'm sure his league awards points for long TDs, but more than likely they're worth the same as short ones...in leagues that award bonuses for long TDs info like this is very important.

Doesn't seem fair to compare any RB to Peterson. And I think Chris Johnson will have a nice year if that O line stays intact. Possibly the ideal RB2 in the draft. Long runs are part of the game. A lot of guys' stats look pedestrian without the one long run in a given game.

 

Long runs are a part of the game, but that doesn't mean there isn't value in looking at them and how they impact a runner.
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To take this the next step...what you can do is analyze the teams he had those explosive runs against...take a look at his previous years and look at those too...look for commonalities...do those teams have a weak DL? are their LBs fast and undisciplined (meaning they over-run plays and allow cutback runs)? etc.

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It adds perspective. We look at consistency for players and not just their end of year point totals. So an exercise like this can have value. I'm sure his league awards points for long TDs, but more than likely they're worth the same as short ones...in leagues that award bonuses for long TDs info like this is very important.

 

 

 

Again, why toss them out? They count just as much if not more as any other. If you take one particular catch out then Santonio Holmes has zero Super-Bowl MVP awards. If you take away one of Brett Favre's starts he's just a dude that started a bunch of NFL games. You can't take them away. They happened. If you want to take away the Immaculate Deception that's fine, that's a fluke, but long TD's are a result of his skillset, they are what he does. You keep giving him the ball, taking the 2 yards 2 yards 2 yards 2 yards knowing that eventually he'll bust one out. That's like saying take away Randy Moss's 5 longest TD's and see how good he is - he's not the same guy by a longshot.

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Again, why toss them out? They count just as much if not more as any other. If you take one particular catch out then Santonio Holmes has zero Super-Bowl MVP awards. If you take away one of Brett Favre's starts he's just a dude that started a bunch of NFL games. You can't take them away. They happened. If you want to take away the Immaculate Deception that's fine, that's a fluke, but long TD's are a result of his skillset, they are what he does. You keep giving him the ball, taking the 2 yards 2 yards 2 yards 2 yards knowing that eventually he'll bust one out. That's like saying take away Randy Moss's 5 longest TD's and see how good he is - he's not the same guy by a longshot.

 

No one's taking them away...but I get it...our views differ, and that's fine. Edited by keggerz
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Im thinking CJ represents some value at his ADP. He is not in a timeshare and he can score on any play. Getting a guy like that late 2nd early 3rd is big time value. I think that he will be more consistent running behind an improved OL.

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It is interesting to see which guys grind out their value vs. those who need to hit home runs to do it. And since consistent production helps win championships, it is a valid topic to dig into. But I think there's more to it than this... I'd be curious about the home run value along side the red zone opportunity. In other words, are guys like Chris Johnson consistently getting touches inside the 10 yard line? I'd be concerned if the answer was no and that they HAD to hit the long ball to get TDs. What the Titans plan to do at the goalline (Shonne Greene?) would be a hugh question to want to have answered.

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It's important to look at a player's performance. CJ's indicates that he is a good threat on any given play. What if a play that could've been a CJ 50 yard run was given to another player instead. What if it was one of those five long runs last year? What if another played got called to run a play when CJ would've housed it if it was him instead?

 

There's lots to look at in his numbers. Like what didn't he do? He didn't score on any red zone plays except once last year. Will they send him out there this year? Probably not.

 

I just don't think that a player, including CJ, will average close to 50 yards per Td score ever again. I see that as a unique year.

 

I'm not saying that it is fair to compare him to AP. A few years ago it was more fair and now it isn't. Why?

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He didn't score on any red zone plays except once last year. Will they send him out there this year? Probably not.

 

 

He scored on three red zone plays last year with runs of 2, 16 and 17 yards.

 

Those red zone opportunities are probly gone this year with the arrival of Greene, leaving his other 3 distance TDs.

 

This is why I have been calling him CJ2tds.

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One goal line td but thanks. But if the Red zone channel had the Titans on the screen, you would more than likely not have seen him score a td.

 

Every year when September rolls around we get all these "I'm never drafting CJ ever again!" Posts. Seems like waiting for a 80 yard td run to happen is not a good thing every week. You would've been happy or at least unpleased with his performance probably about 3 times in your regular FF season last year.

Edited by MikesVikes
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Redzone and goaline are not the same. No way TEN takes their best playmaker off the field in the redzone. I agree that greene get the work inside the five, but from the 5 out its all CJ unless its 3rd and 1 to covert.

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