Gallo's 'Dissecting QB Value' article.

[Deadwood]

Simply fantastic. That article alone is worth the price of this year's membership. Not only was the work that went into it above and beyond pretty much any fantasy football article I've seen in years, but it's extremely well written too.

[keggerz]

Thank you. Glad you enjoyed it, and I appreciate the kind words. Good luck this season!

[Deadwood]

Thank you sir, and good luck to you too. Only realized now that the article was from way back in July (when I tried to find it again now but couldn't).

 

Here's a link for those who missed it the first time around, like me. Well worth the time: http://www.thehuddle...sy-football.php

[Grenaid]

Now I read this a couple weeks ago, so forgive me if I misread any part of it, but does this work only cover 1 QB leagues? Since I am in a 2 QB league, doesn't this at least change things around a bit? Meaning, picking up at least 1 good QB is probably necessary rather than waiting for the 8th or 10th round in a 1 QB league to pick up 1 OK Quarterback. I really enjoyed the article and tried to figure this one out on my own, but a 2 QB league seems to throw everything off. Once again, sorry if I misunderstood anything. Great read though, thanks!

[keggerz]

Now I read this a couple weeks ago, so forgive me if I misread any part of it, but does this work only cover 1 QB leagues? Since I am in a 2 QB league, doesn't this at least change things around a bit? Meaning, picking up at least 1 good QB is probably necessary rather than waiting for the 8th or 10th round in a 1 QB league to pick up 1 OK Quarterback. I really enjoyed the article and tried to figure this one out on my own, but a 2 QB league seems to throw everything off. Once again, sorry if I misunderstood anything. Great read though, thanks!

 

All the research performed was for 1QB leagues only. I may try and look at 2QB leagues for next year.

[Trots]

Simply fantastic. That article alone is worth the price of this year's membership. Not only was the work that went into it above and beyond pretty much any fantasy football article I've seen in years, but it's extremely well written too.

 

I see Keg has another alias.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

I see Keg has another alias.

 

Edited September 5, 2013 by HowboutthemCowboys

[keggerz]

I see Keg has another alias.

 

Absolutely not, and I didn't pay him off either.

 

 

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Absolutely not, and I didn't pay him off either.

 

 

no worries Stats

[Tripleshot]

There should be an ass-kissing smiley(emoticon).

[Deadwood]

Haha, fair enough. Just giving due props.

[DanTheMan_5]

I wonder how many people who win this week because of Manning agree with the zero QB Theorem.

Edited September 6, 2013 by DanTheMan_5

[keggerz]

I wonder how many people who win this week because of Manning agree with the zero QB Theorem.

 

Makes perfect sense to base your decision on a guy setting an NFL record and doing something that hasn't been done since 1969. And if they drafted Manning they probably did so early which means they already didn't buy into it.

 

Oh, and by the way, Flacco scored 22.48 pts last night...Last year, Drew Brees averaged 23.54 PPG...

Edited September 6, 2013 by keggerz

[Deadwood]

Current Manning owner here. I always used to go for a big QB but, in the face of a very compelling argument, I will change my gameplan next year.

[Delicious_bass]

There is always much debate over when to draft a QB and people on all sides of the argument. Thought it would be interesting to look at the rankings (based on fantasy points) of QBs for different scoring systems and re-visit it a few times throughout the season.

 

Here is the order for one of my leagues. I grabbed all QBs that have scored a point though that's obviously deeper than we probably are interested to look. Anyway, scoring in this league = 1pt/25 PaYds, 3pt bonus at 300 PaYds, 4pts/PaTD, 2pts/2pt conv, 1pt rushing/receiving. Start 1 QB. 12 teams.

 

Player FPTS

Manning, Peyton QB DEN 174

Brees, Drew QB NO 134

Rivers, Philip QB SD 125

Ryan, Matt QB ATL 116

Romo, Tony QB DAL 116

Vick, Michael QB PHI 109

Cutler, Jay QB CHI 106

Stafford, Matthew QB DET 103

Manning, Eli QB NYG 100

Luck, Andrew QB IND 99

Bradford, Sam QB STL 97

Wilson, Russell QB SEA 96

Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 96

Smith, Geno QB NYJ 94

Schaub, Matt QB HOU 89

Griffin III, Robert QB WAS 86

Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA 86

Smith, Alex QB KC 86

Kaepernick, Colin QB SF 78

Flacco, Joe QB BAL 78

Newton, Cam QB CAR 77

Brady, Tom QB NE 77

Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT 74

Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK 73

Dalton, Andy QB CIN 71

Manuel, EJ QB BUF 69

Palmer, Carson QB ARI 68

Locker, Jake QB TEN 64

Ponder, Christian QB MIN 53

Hoyer, Brian QB CLE 47

Weeden, Brandon QB CLE 35

Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN 32

Freeman, Josh QB TB 31

Henne, Chad QB JAC 30

Gabbert, Blaine QB JAC 24

Foles, Nick QB PHI 20

Cassel, Matt QB MIN 17

Jackson, Tarvaris QB SEA 15

Flynn, Matt QB OAK 13

Glennon, Mike QB TB 11

Tuel, Jeff QB BUF 3

Hasselbeck, Matt QB IND 1

 

 

I don't have time to go back and look at where all these players were drafted in this league (or how their rank compares to their ADP) but a few interesting things to note I guess: Peyton Manning was the 2nd QB taken (1st pick in round 3) and Rivers was taken in round 14. The owner who has Eli Manning (9th rd) also has Cutler (11th rd) and waited until all other owners had a starter and still got 2 top 10 (so far) QBs. Should be interesting to look at this again down the road as well as get some data from other scoring systems/league sizes/etc.

[Delicious_bass]

Re-visiting this now that the fantasy season (for most leagues(including this one)) is done. Below is a list of QBs generated using the same criteria as above(basically, any QB who got into a game and scored at least 1 point):

 

Player FPTS

Manning, Peyton QB DEN 448

Brees, Drew QB NO 369

Stafford, Matthew QB DET 319

Dalton, Andy QB CIN 311

Rivers, Philip QB SD 296

Luck, Andrew QB IND 295

Newton, Cam QB CAR 293

Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT 292

Romo, Tony QB DAL 286

Wilson, Russell QB SEA 283

Ryan, Matt QB ATL 283

Brady, Tom QB NE 277

Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA 271

Smith, Alex QB KC 258

Kaepernick, Colin QB SF 258

Palmer, Carson QB ARI 247

Foles, Nick QB PHI 247

Griffin III, Robert QB WAS 241

Flacco, Joe QB BAL 240

Manning, Eli QB NYG 219

Smith, Geno QB NYJ 215

Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN 186

Cutler, Jay QB CHI 179

Henne, Chad QB JAC 169

Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 163

Glennon, Mike QB TB 162

Manuel, EJ QB BUF 148

Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK 144

McCown, Josh QB CHI 144

Bradford, Sam QB STL 127

Ponder, Christian QB MIN 126

Schaub, Matt QB HOU 124

Campbell, Jason QB CLE 117

Keenum, Case QB HOU 116

Cassel, Matt QB MIN 111

Vick, Michael QB PHI 110

Weeden, Brandon QB CLE 109

Locker, Jake QB TEN 105

McGloin, Matt QB OAK 92

Clemens, Kellen QB STL 91

Flynn, Matt QB GB 88

Lewis, Thad QB BUF 53

Hoyer, Brian QB CLE 47

Cousins, Kirk QB WAS 45

Tolzien, Scott QB GB 44

Freeman, Josh QB MIN 38

Gabbert, Blaine QB JAC 24

Tuel, Jeff QB BUF 17

Jackson, Tarvaris QB SEA 15

Simms, Matt QB NYJ 12

Barkley, Matt QB PHI 11

Wallace, Seneca QB GB 5

Taylor, Tyrod QB BAL 4

Webb, Joe QB MIN 4

Davis, Dominique QB ATL 3

Yates, T.J. QB HOU 3

Hasselbeck, Matt QB IND 3

Moore, Matt QB MIA 2

Painter, Curtis QB NYG 1

Johnson, Josh QB CIN 1

Daniel, Chase QB KC 1

Orton, Kyle QB DAL 1

 

Some interesting things to note:

-Peyton Manning was the highest scoring QB. As mentioned previously, he was the 2nd QB drafted (behind only Brees). The team that had him won its division (best record in the league) and won high points for the season. He was beaten in the playoff semis and again in the 3rd place game, though.

 

-Drew Brees finished 2nd in QB scoring and was the starting QB for the team that ended up losing in the Fantasy Bowl. During the regular season, that team was .500 but got hot the first couple rounds of the playoffs.

 

-Aaron Rodgers was the 3rd QB drafted (behind Brees and Manning). He was not performing to his ADP even before injury and obviously now falls very far down the list.

 

-Matt Stafford was the 4th QB drafted and finished 3rd in QB scoring.

 

-Dalton(8th rd) and Rivers (14th rd) came in 4th and 5th in QB scoring. Both were drafted as backups.

 

-The team that won the Fantasy Bowl in this league also won its division and was the last team to draft a QB (Eli Manning(9th rd)) and also drafted Jay Cutler(11th rd) a couple rounds later. This team also used Alex Smith at least one week and was largely successful down the stretch due to Josh McCown (added via FA). Cutler was the starting QB in the championship game and scored 15 points. Margin of victory was 18 points.

 

I would say these results support the thinking (that many folks here have) that you can definitely score hugh value waiting on QB and you don't necessarily need one of the elite QBs to be successful. These results also indicate taking a QB early can pay off (as it did for the Manning owner) if you happen to chose the right one. And, really, that is the key. Picking the "right" players who will score the most points is the only guaranteed recipe for winning. Whether you go QB early or late, stockpile RBs right away, take all receivers to start then hunt for RB value later, and/or any mix of the previous...getting the right players is all that matters. Strategies, theorems, etc can all fail or be successful.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Delicious_bass

[Henry Muto]

I hate to say it but it all comes down to drafting the players that score the most points. I mean if you are purposely passing on QB's to wait and value and you took Lamar Miller over Peyton Manning in the 3rd or 4th round I think we can all agree that it didn't work out even if you ended up getting a solid QB later. It all comes down to what you got in place of those QB's you waited on if your QB 1 ended up being Eli Manning because you waited I would say you got burned pretty bad. It all depends on who you passed up and who you took in place of that QB. There is no right or wrong way to draft a team I was told many times this year that you couldn't win by going WR/WR and of my 20 championships this year many of my teams were WR/WR to start. I have some drafts where I took a QB early like A-Rodgers in the 4th and he went down to injury yet I still won 3 championships with A-Rodgers as my 4th round pick I had many teams over come Julio's injury and many teams over come both Julio and Rodgers or similar fate's while other teams did not over come. I found Foles on the waiver wire and I also struggled in 1 league to find a solid QB all year by waiting. You can win doing anything it just depends on who you pick where you pick em and who you get later and also who you get off the waiver wire. Sometimes the waiver wire is like a tree full of fruit for you to pick and other leagues it's a nasty crabtree full of rotten apples.

[keggerz]

Of course picking the right players matter, that doesn't change for any strategy. And yes, you can win with any strategy. This article showed how the positions truly are valued against each other...if that helps people to formulate better strategies that's great, but if they feel it's useless info then that's fine too. lt's out there and people can use it as they see fit. For me, and yes I'm biased since I wrote it (but the research wasn't biased), as a numbers guy I like that positional value is able to be quantified. Main reason is because I don't like it when people just say, "well it's easy to see this person is more valuable than that one"...I like concrete evidence when making statements like that, and I believe this article allows for that. Heck, you can draft a kicker and defense in the first few rounds and still win a league, but that doesn't mean it was a good strategy to use.