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Still going RB RB next year?


Seattle Sucks
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I've been playing FF since Fred Taylor was a first rounder and Randy Moss was the man. I've always gone by the premise that you need to draft RB RB in almost every league. Every Guru swore that you should go RB RB especially in deeper leagues, but past years and this year especially is telling us that RBs are not only the most injury prone position but half of them aren't even playing to their potential. Some of the studs of a year or two ago don't even get over 20 carries anymore. Then you have the fact that many O-lines in this league are hurting and effect the running lanes for most backs.

 

Now we know this league is more of a passing league which doesn't bode well for RBs. I understand the argument that the reason you might want to go RB RB the first two rounds is because most of them can be injury prone and the many RBBCs in the league but wouldn't you rather get a stud like Peyton Manning, Brees, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, D Thomas, or Rodgers in the 2nd Round instead of a guy like S. Jackson, D. Wilson, T-Rich, Rice or Morris? Or even guys like Spiller in the first round. I don't know about you but I rather be getting 30 to 40 points from Manning or Brees every week than waiting for D Martin to bust out or S-Jax to come off injury. Sure not all backs are doing bad this year, but how are you going to know who to stay away from next year? I mean wouldn't it be safer to go with a stud receiver or QB that you know will be consistent and most likely stay away from injury? Most leagues you only start two RBs maybe three anyway and odds are another team's RB will go down which means many options on the wire for you to pick up by at least week 2.

 

I look in all my leagues and every top team has either Manning, Brees, Rodgers or great WRs on their team. Coincidence?

 

This all being said are you still going to go RB RB next year or not? Reasons for either?

Edited by Seattle Sucks
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Being strong at the RB position is more important than ever when so few are productive. I find WR & TEs are much easier to play week to week matchups or find on waivers. I swung and missed on some RBs (Spiller, Wilson) but am glad some solid RBs (Forte, Lynch) are on my rosters and that some of my other RBs have panned out reasonably well (Bernard, Powell).

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Doesn't this depend on the league setup and draft position to begin with? RB - RB is a draft philosophy to possibly consider based off these and other factors, but it shouldn't be thought of as the "rule". Most websites/forums displayed an emphasis on the RB position this year pre-draft because of the perceived lack of depth. But regardless, the approach by most sites and leagues I've seen is geared towards VBD the past few years and not RB - RB.

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I a couple of mine I went RB/WR and in one even caught brees in the third round.I think you have to make a judgement call on the way the draft is going on who to pick and there's no strict rule on u have to go rb/rb.if u get a stud rb thr first round then 2nd rd comes around and ur choices for best rb is frank gore or dez/aj/calvin you have to take the wr.just my opinion

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Good question! I went RB, RB drafted Charles and Ridley. I did get Bush in the 5th! But I am 8th in a 12 team league. The team with the best record went: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green J Graham and D Brees. Didn't take a RB until the 5th rd and he is 5-1The funny thing is he was on auto draft because he thought the draft was at a different time. We all made fun of him. Not any more

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It really depends on draft position, size of league, and the flow of the draft. Of 8 teams I have, I went RB-WR in 6, RB-RB in 1, and RB-QB in 1 (6 leagues are 12 team, 2 are 8 team). I agree that RB-RB is a thing of the past.

 

 

This.

 

Doesn't this depend on the league setup and draft position to begin with? RB - RB is a draft philosophy to possibly consider based off these and other factors, but it shouldn't be thought of as the "rule". Most websites/forums displayed an emphasis on the RB position this year pre-draft because of the perceived lack of depth. But regardless, the approach by most sites and leagues I've seen is geared towards VBD the past few years and not RB - RB.

 

 

And that.

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Good question! I went RB, RB drafted Charles and Ridley. I did get Bush in the 5th! But I am 8th in a 12 team league. The team with the best record went: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green J Graham and D Brees. Didn't take a RB until the 5th rd and he is 5-1The funny thing is he was on auto draft because he thought the draft was at a different time. We all made fun of him. Not any more

 

 

I know, the guy I thought had the worst team is now in first place....

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If someone could dig up the 7/12 Theory thread I wrote a long, long time ago that would be great. It argues that 7 out of the top-12 RBs are busts for the season, and that it makes more sense to take other positions early, positions where you can ensure elite production, and then take a handful of RBs in the midrounds with high potential.

 

A self criticism of my theory: it's damn hard to do well. Look at the names you just wrote to prove your point and who ISNT on that list.

 

A stud like Peyton Manning or Brees or Rodgers for QBs actually didn't cost people a 1st or 2nd rounder really, as their adps are 29.4, 18.07, and 15.8 respectively. Manning was available in the third round in a lot of leagues yet is the clear-cut #1 guy now.

 

For WR you listed Dez, AJ Green, and Demaryius. You ignored Calvin Johnson (the #1 WR) and Brandon Marshall (almost always ahead of Demaryius).

 

If you could let me know with 100% confidence who the #1 WR is for next year, I would take him mid-1st. Just because that would be guaranteed performance. But you can't. I'm not sold that the bust rate is really significantly lower on a top-3 QB or a top-5 WR. If you want to do some further resaerch, look into that!

 

 

ADPs are from MFL

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Doesn't this depend on the league setup and draft position to begin with? RB - RB is a draft philosophy to possibly consider based off these and other factors, but it shouldn't be thought of as the "rule". Most websites/forums displayed an emphasis on the RB position this year pre-draft because of the perceived lack of depth. But regardless, the approach by most sites and leagues I've seen is geared towards VBD the past few years and not RB - RB.

 

 

Well of course scoring matters. I'm talking just standard leagues and not PPR or WR/QB friendly leagues. Sorry should have been more clear.

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If someone could dig up the 7/12 Theory thread I wrote a long, long time ago that would be great. It argues that 7 out of the top-12 RBs are busts for the season, and that it makes more sense to take other positions early, positions where you can ensure elite production, and then take a handful of RBs in the midrounds with high potential.

 

A self criticism of my theory: it's damn hard to do well. Look at the names you just wrote to prove your point and who ISNT on that list.

 

A stud like Peyton Manning or Brees or Rodgers for QBs actually didn't cost people a 1st or 2nd rounder really, as their adps are 29.4, 18.07, and 15.8 respectively. Manning was available in the third round in a lot of leagues yet is the clear-cut #1 guy now.

 

For WR you listed Dez, AJ Green, and Demaryius. You ignored Calvin Johnson (the #1 WR) and Brandon Marshall (almost always ahead of Demaryius).

 

If you could let me know with 100% confidence who the #1 WR is for next year, I would take him mid-1st. Just because that would be guaranteed performance. But you can't. I'm not sold that the bust rate is really significantly lower on a top-3 QB or a top-5 WR. If you want to do some further resaerch, look into that!

 

 

ADPs are from MFL

 

 

I only skipped some names because they fit my example of the argument I was speaking of. Of course there is an exception to every rule, but you have to admit there have been many RB busts so far this year.

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If someone could dig up the 7/12 Theory thread I wrote a long, long time ago that would be great. It argues that 7 out of the top-12 RBs are busts for the season, and that it makes more sense to take other positions early, positions where you can ensure elite production, and then take a handful of RBs in the midrounds with high potential.

 

A self criticism of my theory: it's damn hard to do well. Look at the names you just wrote to prove your point and who ISNT on that list.

 

A stud like Peyton Manning or Brees or Rodgers for QBs actually didn't cost people a 1st or 2nd rounder really, as their adps are 29.4, 18.07, and 15.8 respectively. Manning was available in the third round in a lot of leagues yet is the clear-cut #1 guy now.

 

For WR you listed Dez, AJ Green, and Demaryius. You ignored Calvin Johnson (the #1 WR) and Brandon Marshall (almost always ahead of Demaryius).

 

If you could let me know with 100% confidence who the #1 WR is for next year, I would take him mid-1st. Just because that would be guaranteed performance. But you can't. I'm not sold that the bust rate is really significantly lower on a top-3 QB or a top-5 WR. If you want to do some further resaerch, look into that!

 

 

ADPs are from MFL

 

I included research about mR (Miss Rate) in my "Dissecting QB Value In Fantasy Football (Zero QB Theorem)" article.

 

I decided that looking at ADP (average draft position) and seeing how ADP compared to end of season rankings could prove fruitful. In short, I found my bow.

I had bounced a ton of stuff off Jake, and at times, I think I probably almost made his head explode, but honestly, it was helping to keep mine from doing just that. Anyway, I was re-reading an email I had sent Jake when something I wrote jumped off the page at me, “if you “miss” on a QB”, that was it, my aha moment. Calculating a miss rate (mR) by position, based on ADP and end of season rankings is another piece of the context puzzle.

The following table shows the mR average, mR percent and an “Olympic” mR based on the past five years.

Position 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total mR Average mR Percent "Olympic" mR

QB 6 3 4 4 3 20 4.00 33.33% 30.60%

RB 10 9 10 10 6 45 9.00 37.50% 40.30%

WR 12 14 13 11 11 61 12.20 33.89% 33.33%

TE 6 4 6 4 7 27 5.40 45.00% 44.44%

K 8 6 6 4 3 27 5.40 45.00% 44.44%

D/ST 4 6 5 4 6 25 5.00 41.67% 41.70%

The numbers in the above chart constitute the number of times a player, based on ADP data, was drafted to be a starter at their position, and failed to rank as a starter in the end of season rankings. So if the ADP QB6 finishes as QB15 in the end of season rankings that would constitute a miss. Note: The “Olympic” mR throws out the high and low score and was included to make sure that an outlier wasn’t severely impacting the averages.

The next step is to look at “replaceability” for each position. Doing so required a few different steps. One step would be to figure out the parameters for calculating a mR mean.

The parameters I came up with are; QB9-QB12, RB16-RB24, WR25-WR36, TE8-TE12, K8-K12, and D/ST8-D/ST12. Those parameters are derived from the average number of misses (see the highlighted mR Average column above) for each position. As an example, the quarterback position has a mR average of four, so the mR mean is calculated using the final four starting quarterback positions (QB9-QB12), if the mR number was three then the mR mean would have been calculated using QB10-QB12.

Based on the five-year scoring chart for QB9 (277.74), QB10 (272.41), QB11 (260.71) & QB12 (256.04) the mR mean is 266.73. That same process was used to calculate the mR mean for each position.

Following that, using the five-year scoring chart, I calculated the percent to mR mean for all non-starters for each position. Dividing the average by the mR mean created a percent to mR.

Those percents were then grouped into ranges. The number of instances within each range was then divided by the available supply of non-starters, leading to a positional replaceability percent (pR)...

 

 

 

Edited by keggerz
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I only skipped some names because they fit my example of the argument I was speaking of. Of course there is an exception to every rule, but you have to admit there have been many RB busts so far this year.

There are always RB busts, ALWAYS! Edited by keggerz
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Doesn't this depend on the league setup and draft position to begin with? RB - RB is a draft philosophy to possibly consider based off these and other factors, but it shouldn't be thought of as the "rule". Most websites/forums displayed an emphasis on the RB position this year pre-draft because of the perceived lack of depth. But regardless, the approach by most sites and leagues I've seen is geared towards VBD the past few years and not RB - RB.

To 1st bolded part, correct.

As for VBD, I started working on a new value model -- I think that VBD is flawed -- but wasn't able to finish it this year. Hope to have it finished and ready for public consumption for next season.

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There's just no way I DON'T take a WR in the first 2 rounds.

 

Only way I could see me doing that would be if I was one of the first couple of picks and after taking a top RB with my 1st pick, following it up with a RB that has fallen WAY too far.... and thought that I could snare a solid WR1 with my 3rd round choice.

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There's just no way I DON'T take a WR in the first 2 rounds.

 

Only way I could see me doing that would be if I was one of the first couple of picks and after taking a top RB with my 1st pick, following it up with a RB that has fallen WAY too far.... and thought that I could snare a solid WR1 with my 3rd round choice.

So you're saying that bolded statement is false? :shades:
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I dunno. In the leagues I typically associate myself with, there is like a 0.00000000000000001% chance of an RB actually "falling".

I know, was just ribbing you...you also know I'm not just a staunch RB/RB guy...but I will come back at you with this with regard to your needing a WR in the 1st 3 rounds...6 of the top 12 WRs were drafted outside of the top 36 picks...and 50% of the top 24 WRs were drafted after pick 48.
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I know, was just ribbing you...you also know I'm not just a staunch RB/RB guy...but I will come back at you with this with regard to your needing a WR in the 1st 3 rounds...6 of the top 12 WRs were drafted outside of the top 36 picks...and 50% of the top 24 WRs were drafted after pick 48.

 

So if you're not a RB/RB guy, and assuming those figures, and assuming we don't need to draft a QB at all... then are you saying draft TE early? Or are you taking Phil Dawson in the 2nd? :thinking:

 

There've been a lot of WRs come out of nowhere this year. I will stand by my "general rule" that I want a "no-brainer" WR within my first two rounds of picking. I don't think that'll ever change.

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I was saved this year by my draft positions. In 2 keeper leagues all the so called studs were kept. In one league I had Lynch and Foster and stuck with them despite all the Foster hoopla. In another keeper I only had Rice and was lucky that I grabbed Reggie when he somehow fell to me in the 2nd round (4th) keeper draft. I was just lucky that all the "studs" were being kept. Martin, Ridley, Spiller etc. In a best ball league I went for Charles as 1.04 and was glad he fell to me. After that I went Peyton and then stud WR's. So far I am a contender. Just lucky because I would have gone after TRich or Spiller if they were available.

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As i do for any redraft, i don't use a predetermined order on what positions to draft. If i happen to draft a RB in the 1st and there is still a real good RB there in the 2nd, i will draft him, but is a stud WR is still standing there, i won't reach for a RB there and take the WR instead.

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So if you're not a RB/RB guy, and assuming those figures, and assuming we don't need to draft a QB at all... then are you saying draft TE early? Or are you taking Phil Dawson in the 2nd? :thinking:

 

There've been a lot of WRs come out of nowhere this year. I will stand by my "general rule" that I want a "no-brainer" WR within my first two rounds of picking. I don't think that'll ever change.

I'm saying I can go RB/WR, WR,RB, WR/WR, RB/RB...after my research this year I'm not going TE or QB early....as for RBs 10 of the top 12 were taken in the first 24 picks...15 of the top 24 were taken in the first four rounds....8 of the 9 not taken in the first four rounds were drafted between pick 99 and 217...the lone one taken between 49 and 99 was Gio (68 ADP).
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