Still going RB RB next year?

[darin3]

I'm saying I can go RB/WR, WR,RB, WR/WR, RB/RB...after my research this year I'm not going TE or QB early....as for RBs 10 of the top 12 were taken in the first 24 picks...15 of the top 24 were taken in the first four rounds....8 of the 9 not taken in the first four rounds were drafted between pick 99 and 217...the lone one taken between 49 and 99 was Gio (68 ADP).

 

 

Agreed... it really depends on where you're drafting and who falls.

[buddahj]

I haven't gone RB-RB in years and I probably never will again.

[Joebirds55]

Last year a guy went rb rb rb and finished damn near last. I went qb (Brady) te (gronk) wr(Andre Johnson) which completely goes against conventional wisdom. I lost in the finals. So to me it all depends on league size, scoring, etc. this year I went rb rb rb spiller Trent Reggie bush. What a disaster. Luckily via trades was able to salvage my season. But I think if you can get a top rb, and a top wr like an aj green d Thomas type I like that a bit more. Random names emerge as solid rb2s - lacy, Bernard, Fred Jackson...guys that u can grab in those 3 and 4 rounds.

[LbNiners]

nope, now i'm in ppr league, slot receivers have alot more value with the amount of touches/targets they get.

[MikesVikes]

As i do for any redraft, i don't use a predetermined order on what positions to draft. If i happen to draft a RB in the 1st and there is still a real good RB there in the 2nd, i will draft him, but is a stud WR is still standing there, i won't reach for a RB there and take the WR instead.

 

 

This is the way to do it.

[keggerz]

nope, now i'm in ppr league, slot receivers have alot more value with the amount of touches/targets they get.

 

fwiw, the numbers I listed were for a full PPR league

[keggerz]

Last year a guy went rb rb rb and finished damn near last. I went qb (Brady) te (gronk) wr(Andre Johnson) which completely goes against conventional wisdom. I lost in the finals. So to me it all depends on league size, scoring, etc. this year I went rb rb rb spiller Trent Reggie bush. What a disaster. Luckily via trades was able to salvage my season. But I think if you can get a top rb, and a top wr like an aj green d Thomas type I like that a bit more. Random names emerge as solid rb2s - lacy, Bernard, Fred Jackson...guys that u can grab in those 3 and 4 rounds.

 

Lacy (RB23) and Gio (RB26) weren't exactly random names but they did have ADPs in rounds 5-6...Lacy was taken as a RB2 and Gio was close as many viewed him as RB3 with RB2 upside...so saying they emerged is stretching it a bit. FJax on the other hand was RB43 with an ADP of round 11.

[Joebirds55]

Lacy (RB23) and Gio (RB26) weren't exactly random names but they did have ADPs in rounds 5-6...Lacy was taken as a RB2 and Gio was close as many viewed him as RB3 with RB2 upside...so saying they emerged is stretching it a bit. FJax on the other hand was RB43 with an ADP of round 11.

 

 

"Random names" was probably the wrong way to describe those guys. Agree they were well known before the draft. But you can get away with a rb1 wr1, and then there's a good chance you'll hit on a lesser name that can be a solid rb2. To me, rb has more of a chance for that player to be a bust. Consistent players hit the wall and no longer perform, the position itself is not as stressed in today's nfl, etc. so going forward ill hopefully take a rb1 (assuming he doesn't pull a spiller), and them grab a Marshall, green, dez, etc in round 2.

 

I think every year you'll have a decent percentage of guys that win going rb rb, with a good amount winning that go rb wr something like that. All comes down to weekly matchups and a lot of luck.

[keggerz]

"Random names" was probably the wrong way to describe those guys. Agree they were well known before the draft. But you can get away with a rb1 wr1, and then there's a good chance you'll hit on a lesser name that can be a solid rb2. To me, rb has more of a chance for that player to be a bust. Consistent players hit the wall and no longer perform, the position itself is not as stressed in today's nfl, etc. so going forward ill hopefully take a rb1 (assuming he doesn't pull a spiller), and them grab a Marshall, green, dez, etc in round 2.

 

I think every year you'll have a decent percentage of guys that win going rb rb, with a good amount winning that go rb wr something like that. All comes down to weekly matchups and a lot of luck.

 

You are correct that more RBs bust and that's the reason you normally need to hit the position earlier and more often than others...you increase your odds of hitting...I don't have the numbers off the top of my head but my research showed the % of finding a starting RB (RB1 or RB2) outside of RB36 is much less than finding starting WRs (WR1/2) outside of WR36...My plan is to hit this hard with an article next year...that and the new value model I mentioned.

[Macksimus]

I went RB RB this year, and my teams have not been performing well. On the flip side, the guy who picked Aaron Rogers with his first pick ended up with L. McCoy, M. Lynch and K. Moreno (so unfair!) when it was all said and done. The guy who drafted Manning with his first pick ended up with Foster and Bush as his starting back-field. Needless to say, those two guys are destroying the competition right now.

 

...and I am not.

[byroz]

I went RB RB this year, and my teams have not been performing well. On the flip side, the guy who picked Aaron Rogers with his first pick ended up with L. McCoy, M. Lynch and K. Moreno (so unfair!) when it was all said and done. The guy who drafted Manning with his first pick ended up with Foster and Bush as his starting back-field. Needless to say, those two guys are destroying the competition right now.

 

...and I am not.

 

 

How many teams?it must be a small league or with un experienced players.say in a 10 team league if.you have first pick and take rodgers that means mccoy went 2.20 and lynch in the 3rd rd...how on earth could they still be there lol.

[Avernus]

The only way I can say for sure that I won't go rb-rb in the 1st 2 rounds is if I only start 1 rb....it all depends on who is available at my draft slot...and what the scoring looks like and all sorts of things that impact the rest of my draft from that pick on...

[Seahawks21]

You can find receivers, but if you have bad RB's, you're done.

[Delicious_bass]

I went RB RB this year, and my teams have not been performing well. On the flip side, the guy who picked Aaron Rogers with his first pick ended up with L. McCoy, M. Lynch and K. Moreno (so unfair!) when it was all said and done. The guy who drafted Manning with his first pick ended up with Foster and Bush as his starting back-field. Needless to say, those two guys are destroying the competition right now.

 

...and I am not.

 

"ended up with" as in drafted? Or acquired through trades? If you mean they drafted those players even after going QB with their first picks, then (like byroz said) I would question how many owners are in your league and their level of fantasy acumen. Are you really saying you went RB RB and did not take one of Foster, Lynch, or McCoy with either pick?

[BA Baracus]

You can find receivers, but if you have bad RB's, you're done.

 

 

This.

 

You have to use several high picks on RBs so that you have a shot at owning at least one, and hopefully two every week starters.

[Company of Heroes]

This.

 

You have to use several high picks on RBs so that you have a shot at owning at least one, and hopefully two every week starters.

 

 

Completely agree.

[stevegrab]

You can find receivers, but if you have bad RB's, you're done.

 

 

But going RB-RB or picking 2 RB in the first 3-4 rounds doesn't gaurantee you don't have good RB. it may increase your odds, but since many of the top RB picks bust it also opens you up to more potential risk there.

 

Mine is a keeper league, I had Chris Johnson as my only RB going into the draft (with Megatron, Fitz, DemThomas, & Witten). My RB2 so far has been Sproles. I had to use a lot of early draft picks looking for RB, but was set at WR and didn't need many picks on that position. 4-2 and a game behind first, but would be in the playoffs right now. There is a team that protected Foster and Murray, also drafted Ball & Tate, he's 2-4 and not doing so well in part because of his RB, but also Brady and his WR haven't been great.

[Company of Heroes]

But increasing your odds of getting good production is exactly what we are trying to do.

 

AND, it is still easier to find production late or with waivers at WR than RB.

 

While it depends greatly on draft spot and it's too simple to toss out names than have or haven't panned out, the drafts I went with Calvin and Julio (2 consensus top 5 WRs) did not pay dividends. The leagues I went with Forte and/or Lynch (2 consensus top 10 RBs) most definitely did.

 

If I went with Spiller instead, I'm going to offer up my best WR to get back a performing RB, simply because the production is easier to replace at WR.

[NAUgrad]

Yeah, I've always been a RB whore, but can clearly see that there is a shift to QB and WR. However, what I'm really seeing is that it has become harder and harder to get any quality RB's that are consistent. Which is why this year I spent a number of picks drafting depth which meant that I missed out on better quality at WR. I did target D. Jackson who just had to have a good year this year based on injuries and changes to the offense. So far so good. So you could almost argue that due to an increase in passing, there are more WR's that produce than in previous years.

 

I guess what I've come to the conclusion of on a full redraft: Don't be afraid to draft a QB high, late 1st, early 2nd, and don't reach for RB's just for depth. Draft the best available player even if it means that you go QB, WR, WR, TE, or RB, TE, QB, WR, WR, etc. I'll still most likely grab a RB in the 1st, but I'll sure think twice before pulling the trigger.

[Seattle Sucks]

Yeah, I've always been a RB whore, but can clearly see that there is a shift to QB and WR. However, what I'm really seeing is that it has become harder and harder to get any quality RB's that are consistent. Which is why this year I spent a number of picks drafting depth which meant that I missed out on better quality at WR. I did target D. Jackson who just had to have a good year this year based on injuries and changes to the offense. So far so good. So you could almost argue that due to an increase in passing, there are more WR's that produce than in previous years.

 

I guess what I've come to the conclusion of on a full redraft: Don't be afraid to draft a QB high, late 1st, early 2nd, and don't reach for RB's just for depth. Draft the best available player even if it means that you go QB, WR, WR, TE, or RB, TE, QB, WR, WR, etc. I'll still most likely grab a RB in the 1st, but I'll sure think twice before pulling the trigger.

 

 

Yeah due to the WR depth I would be more likely to go RB then QB the first two rounds. Then just stock up on RBs and WRs the rest of the way.

[keggerz]

But increasing your odds of getting good production is exactly what we are trying to do.

 

AND, it is still easier to find production late or with waivers at WR than RB.

 

 

COH gets it

[keggerz]

Yeah, I've always been a RB whore, but can clearly see that there is a shift to QB and WR. However, what I'm really seeing is that it has become harder and harder to get any quality RB's that are consistent. Which is why this year I spent a number of picks drafting depth which meant that I missed out on better quality at WR. I did target D. Jackson who just had to have a good year this year based on injuries and changes to the offense. So far so good. So you could almost argue that due to an increase in passing, there are more WR's that produce than in previous years.

 

I guess what I've come to the conclusion of on a full redraft: Don't be afraid to draft a QB high, late 1st, early 2nd, and don't reach for RB's just for depth. Draft the best available player even if it means that you go QB, WR, WR, TE, or RB, TE, QB, WR, WR, etc. I'll still most likely grab a RB in the 1st, but I'll sure think twice before pulling the trigger.

 

I just can't get on board with a QB early...the math doesn't support it...for those saying they are less likely to bust, you are correct, but that doesn't mean they are valued more or enough to take that early. http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

Yeah due to the WR depth I would be more likely to go RB then QB the first two rounds. Then just stock up on RBs and WRs the rest of the way.

 

Again, the math just doesn't support a QB value that early.

[delusions of grandeur]

As i do for any redraft, i don't use a predetermined order on what positions to draft. If i happen to draft a RB in the 1st and there is still a real good RB there in the 2nd, i will draft him, but is a stud WR is still standing there, i won't reach for a RB there and take the WR instead.

 

 

Add to that, if I think I can address a particular position later, then I may wait and choose another that is likely to go dry with acceptable players (this assuming i trust the guy there enough to draft).

 

With the advent of PPR to help balance positional value, there are many ways to build a strong team. If I think I can double up on RBs and early, but still address the other positions adequately, then why not?

 

I think people focus too much on what position to go for or avoid early, and forget that the goal is to build the strongest team as a whole... To me, it's "If I go here, how will I address this later?", in addition to my talent evaluations. Cheatsheets help greatly to this end.

[keggerz]

Add to that, if I think I can address a particular position later, then I may wait and choose another that is likely to go dry with acceptable players (this assuming i trust the guy there enough to draft).

 

With the advent of PPR to help balance positional value, there are many ways to build a strong team. If I think I can double up on RBs and early, but still address the other positions adequately, then why not?

 

I think people focus too much on what position to go for or avoid early, and forget that the goal is to build the strongest team as a whole... To me, it's "If I go here, how will I address this later?", in addition to my talent evaluations. Cheatsheets help greatly to this end.

 

They also tend to look at the total points a position scores and think that makes it more valuable but that's a faulty way to look at it.

[delusions of grandeur]

They also tend to look at the total points a position scores and think that makes it more valuable but that's a faulty way to look at it.

 

 

Yep, every year, it never fails, "but QBs score the most points, and score more consistently", not realizing that that applies to most if not all startable QBs.

 

I know you've actually quantified what BC has been preaching around here for years, but it bears repeating the 3 major components of positional value:

 

1. Scarcity - If there aren't many high-scoring RBs, then that makes finding the ones who are more valuable, not less valuable. Conversely, in a year that's so deep at QB like this one appeared to be, there were options later you could have even doubled up on later and found a legitimate starter.

 

2. Point Differential - can't over-emphasize how important this is... An easy way to look at it is, it's my QB vs your QB, my RBs vs yours, etc. So if your QB scores high, but the difference between yours and mine I drafted later is not more than the differential I gained at other positions by waiting, then your strength there is actually a disadvantage by losing points elsewhere.

 

3. Predictability - This is where the anti-RB advocates may think they have won, but it's not just the top RBs that are less predictable. As of late, there aren't many predictable sleepers later. Sure you might land this year's Foster, but you could just as easily land this year's Chris Ivory. The odds are much more in the favor of the latter.

 

Plus, I might add that QB and WR haven't exactly been predictable this year either. Seriously, go look at FPS for those positions and tell me they haven't been a crapshoot.

 

So yes, it is of course important to choose the right players, no matter which position you go with, but like most, I'm more comfortable in my ability to peg WRs and QBs who will outperform their ADP later than I am running back sleepers, so when I see a strong opportunity to gain strength there (strength meaning an advantage of point differential and scarcity at the position), I will take it every time.