Still going RB RB next year?

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Always draft best available , you can always trade after draft

[Avernus]

Always draft best available , you can always trade after draft

 

 

exactly...I never get the whole falling in love with the team you draft philosophy...I look at any chance to improve my team...sometimes you just can't get the players you are targeting during the draft..

[BA Baracus]

Just a thought and not sure if it was touched on in any of the above posts, but next year I'd assume the top 5 picks in any order would be:

 

Charles, mccoy, forte, AP, lynch. With so many first round talents being busts or close to it this year: spiller Trent Morris foster etc, where will the second half of the draft go for 2014?

 

It seems like if you get a bottom half pick you're taking a big risk no matter what, unless you took Calvin dez etc

 

 

My guess is that the bottom half consists of Megatron, Dez, Manning, Graham, and Bush (if no more injuries), with Brees and Rodgers as possible guys to sneak in if somebody late in the order loves them.

 

If Welker keeps up his torrid pace, he could be a late 1st early 2nd in PPR. There is also the possibility that somebody like Cam or RG3 goes on a huge tear late this year and gets up into that range.

 

As far as more running backs, you have differnt groups that will put members into the second tier at the position:

 

1. The busts who could resurge like Martin, TRich, and Alamo.

2. Steady producers that no one believes in like Moreno, FJax, and Gore

3. Guys that put up big numbers when healthy like Murray, Foster, and Bush

4. Young guys who haven't shown much but could, or who could get a favorable change in their situation like Gio and LeVeon

 

Outside of those top 5 backs, it's really hard to see who else could round out the top 10 right now.

[Joebirds55]

 

 

My guess is that the bottom half consists of Megatron, Dez, Manning, Graham, and Bush (if no more injuries), with Brees and Rodgers as possible guys to sneak in if somebody late in the order loves them.

 

If Welker keeps up his torrid pace, he could be a late 1st early 2nd in PPR. There is also the possibility that somebody like Cam or RG3 goes on a huge tear late this year and gets up into that range.

 

As far as more running backs, you have differnt groups that will put members into the second tier at the position:

 

1. The busts who could resurge like Martin, TRich, and Alamo.

2. Steady producers that no one believes in like Moreno, FJax, and Gore

3. Guys that put up big numbers when healthy like Murray, Foster, and Bush

4. Young guys who haven't shown much but could, or who could get a favorable change in their situation like Gio and LeVeon

 

Outside of those top 5 backs, it's really hard to see who else could round out the top 10 right now.

 

 

That's what I mean. Seemed like at this time last year we all knew guys like Trent spiller Martin Morris would be top 10 picks. Now there are huge question marks after those top 5 or 6 picks. Will be interesting to say the least to see how the experts forecast the first two rounds, given rb rb has been conventional wisdom.

[Henry Muto]

My best NFFC team currently is in 20th place out of 1800 people. I scored a 225 this week that may be the most single high score I have ever had in the NFFC not sure but has to be close if not the highest...oh ya I didn't go RB/RB in fact I didn't go RB in the top 3 rounds....I went WR-WR-WR folks and this was 3RR which mean I had to wait to pick 4.10 for my RB1.....Pick 10-15-27 I went WR-WR-WR....then went RB-RB at 46/51....wishing at 51 I had NOT gone RB took freaking Mathews....been saved by my 10th round pick Moreno and waiver wire pick up Stacy.....I had many experts tell me THIS IS NOT LAST YEAR YOU CAN NOT WIN GOING WR/WR TO START ESPECIALLY FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE DRAFT!

 

Knock on wood now that I didn't just jinx this team because this team has me thinking if I can stay healthy I have a shot to be in the mix at least going into the playoffs to do the unthinkable...I mean it really is unthinkable to think someone could win back to back championships for 100K beating 1800+ people 2 years in a row so I am not going to get ahead of myself but it is hard not to be excited to see what this team is doing right now. Going to be a monster struggle this week with my top 4 WR's and Moreno on bye.....I am only 5-3 amazingly started 0-2 and was in 1198th place before this team turned it around so after this week will be 5-4 so I need to keep pounding the points to get into the playoffs as only 2 teams from each league make the playoffs (though like last year when I went 9-4 and finished 2nd in the league in pts and missed my league playoffs I was a wildcard team and went on to win it all anyway).

 

Moral of the story...draft the players that will score you the most points!

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Wrong draft the player that scores more points than the next available at that positionWhat I mean by that is the RB available you project to out score the next RB by 20ptsis not as valuable than the next available WR you project to out score the other best WR by 60pts even if the RB available you think is going to score 300pts but the WR you think is only going to score 240pts , makes sense ?

WR's left project scores for the year

260

210

205

195

RB's left projected scores for the year

320

310

305

298

 

In this case drafting the WR who you project to score the 260 is the best bet because he is far superior to the remaining WR's but all the remaining RB's are in the same tier

[keggerz]

Wrong draft the player that scores more points than the next available at that positionWhat I mean by that is the RB available you project to out score the next RB by 20ptsis not as valuable than the next available WR you project to out score the other best WR by 60pts even if the RB available you think is going to score 300pts but the WR you think is only going to score 240pts , makes sense ?

WR's left project scores for the year

260

210

205

195

RB's left projected scores for the year

320

310

305

298

 

In this case drafting the WR who you project to score the 260 is the best bet because he is far superior to the remaining WR's but all the remaining RB's are in the same tier

 

Yes and no...you're using VBD or a quasi-VBD but I think VBD is faulty...my next big project for next year (This year brought you the Zero QB Theorem) is a new value model that I'm currently referring to as rV(Real Value). It values players based on historical numbers but you can use projections if you want (I wouldn't because they're usually faulty. Instead use the historical projections and then plug the players in wherever you want to rank them), as well as total players drafted at each position, # of starters as well as some other factors like mR(Miss Rate) and pR (positional replaceability) etc.

 

EDIT: If things work out like I hope I'll have an app to make using rV much easier.

Edited October 29, 2013 by keggerz

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Yes and no...you're using VBD or a quasi-VBD but I think VBD is faulty...my next big project for next year (This year brought you the Zero QB Theorem) is a new value model that I'm currently referring to as rV(Real Value). It values players based on historical numbers but you can use projections if you want (I wouldn't because they're usually faulty. Instead use the historical projections and then plug the players in wherever you want to rank them), as well as total players drafted at each position, # of starters as well as some other factors like mR(Miss Rate) and pR (positional replaceability) etc.

 

EDIT: If things work out like I hope I'll have an app to make using rV much easier.

 

 

Thanks Keg ,, can't wait until next year to see this in action !

I was kind of rambling ( writing when I should be quoting customers ) but you see where I was going

[historymike]

I do not go into drafts with a set position order, and I instead focus on getting the best value available in each round. I also tend to be contrarian, knowing that if (for example) there is a run on RBs that there should be value in another position. That being said, one of my main goals is to get as many potential starting RBs as possible: I want one marquee WR, and no less than a second-tier QB, but I usually load up on at least four starting RBs by the end of the eighth round. This varies, of course, depending on the scoring system, but I am very desirous of being able to field at least two serviceable RBs every week and not be dependent on WW slags if injuries happen.

[keggerz]

Thanks Keg ,, can't wait until next year to see this in action !

I was kind of rambling ( writing when I should be quoting customers ) but you see where I was going

 

My plan is to start on it right after the SB and if working on the Zero QB Theorem is any indication, I'll barely get it done by July. But I'm committed to getting it done because I really do feel that VBD is majorly flawed.

[Luger]

Nope. To answer the OP. RB/RB doesn't seem to make sense.

[keggerz]

Nope. To answer the OP. RB/RB doesn't seem to make sense.

 

Making canned statements actually is what doesn't seem to make sense.

 

RB Charles

RB Forte

WR Cruz

WR Jordy

WR Antonio Brown

Would have worked very well

 

As would

WR CJ

WR Demaryius Thomas

WR Jordy Nelson

RB Gore

RB Bernard

 

A multitude of strategies work, but only if you pick the right guys...still there is no denying that RB is much thinner than the WR position.

Edited October 30, 2013 by keggerz

[Delicious_bass]

Making canned statements actually is what doesn't seem to make sense.

 

RB Charles

RB Forte

WR Cruz

WR Jordy

WR Antonio Brown

Would have worked very well

 

As would

WR CJ

WR Demaryius Thomas

WR Jordy Nelson

RB Gore

RB Bernard

 

A multitude of strategies work, but only if you pick the right guys...still there is no denying that RB is much thinner than the WR position.

 

This

[Geo33]

I went rb-rb-rb in all of my drafts this year. All my teams are solid with either or 2 or 3 losses and am most likely gonna make the playoffs. It's frustrating that I drafted Sjax in most of my leagues, but I'm doing fine without him. I have serviceable wrs such as A. Brown, Nicks, Bolden, etc. Although It would be nice to have a Dez Bryant or Jordy that I could rely on week in and week out. No always aim for wrs with targets being the most impkrtNt factor. For example, Nicks has yet to score a TD this year, but his targets and yards are there. I can live with that knowing he will probably produce later in the year. Especially with 2 stud rbs and a qb like stafford.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

None of us have a crystal ball ( that works ) and most of us that are serious make our own projections based on past history and situation changes ( some just look at FF sites ) but the point I was trying to make and Kegg is going to expand on next year is if the season ended today and our predictions were correct when we drafted ,, RB Jamaal Charles would of been the correct section over WR Calvin Johnson and not because Charles has more points but because Charles has 33.4 points more than the next RB & Calvin only has 11.6 more points than the next highest scoring WR. This is bases or 1ppr leagues ,,,

 

I can't wait to see what Kegg comes up with , I'm always looking for more tools to help me win my leagues , just too bad my rookie draft start the day after the NFL draft before he will have it out and I no longer play in redraft leagues.

[NAUgrad]

I do not go into drafts with a set position order, and I instead focus on getting the best value available in each round. I also tend to be contrarian, knowing that if (for example) there is a run on RBs that there should be value in another position. That being said, one of my main goals is to get as many potential starting RBs as possible: I want one marquee WR, and no less than a second-tier QB, but I usually load up on at least four starting RBs by the end of the eighth round. This varies, of course, depending on the scoring system, but I am very desirous of being able to field at least two serviceable RBs every week and not be dependent on WW slags if injuries happen.

 

 

And this is exactly what I've done for years. The point I'm starting to change to is to just flat out go best available. If I end up with 1 starting back and a couple of RBBC backs, so be it. It's a big change draft wise for me, but one I think I'm going to try next year. I know if sounds dumb to draft best available, of course that's what you should do. Because I've always believed that RB's were rare, and while others were dying to just field decent backs, I've got starters in place.

[byroz]

My best NFFC team currently is in 20th place out of 1800 people. I scored a 225 this week that may be the most single high score I have ever had in the NFFC not sure but has to be close if not the highest...oh ya I didn't go RB/RB in fact I didn't go RB in the top 3 rounds....I went WR-WR-WR folks and this was 3RR which mean I had to wait to pick 4.10 for my RB1.....Pick 10-15-27 I went WR-WR-WR....then went RB-RB at 46/51....wishing at 51 I had NOT gone RB took freaking Mathews....been saved by my 10th round pick Moreno and waiver wire pick up Stacy.....I had many experts tell me THIS IS NOT LAST YEAR YOU CAN NOT WIN GOING WR/WR TO START ESPECIALLY FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE DRAFT!

 

Knock on wood now that I didn't just jinx this team because this team has me thinking if I can stay healthy I have a shot to be in the mix at least going into the playoffs to do the unthinkable...I mean it really is unthinkable to think someone could win back to back championships for 100K beating 1800+ people 2 years in a row so I am not going to get ahead of myself but it is hard not to be excited to see what this team is doing right now. Going to be a monster struggle this week with my top 4 WR's and Moreno on bye.....I am only 5-3 amazingly started 0-2 and was in 1198th place before this team turned it around so after this week will be 5-4 so I need to keep pounding the points to get into the playoffs as only 2 teams from each league make the playoffs (though like last year when I went 9-4 and finished 2nd in the league in pts and missed my league playoffs I was a wildcard team and went on to win it all anyway).

 

Moral of the story...draft the players that will score you the most points!

 

 

I wanna know what your team looks like can you post it?

[cubdaddy]

First time in last 5 years I picked a RB before RD3 (went Martin with #3 pick), this is the first time I won't be making playoffs in the last 5 years. Get Brees, Rodgers, or Manning and a top WR1 if u can.