Chiefs v Broncos - The Thread

[NAUgrad]

I can't believe everyone thinks this is an easy win for Denver. I certainly think Denver should win, but they can and do turn the ball over and that's where KC is dangerous. If Denver turns the ball over 3 times again, they could easily lose this game.

[bud29]

I can see some situations where the Chiefs would win - those situations involve the KC offense bringing their A game though, and that will be hard with Bowe arrested. Even though he didn't have many targets, he still got the WR1 attention from opposing secondaries.

[Rileyrott]

I can't believe everyone thinks this is an easy win for Denver. I certainly think Denver should win, but they can and do turn the ball over and that's where KC is dangerous. If Denver turns the ball over 3 times again, they could easily lose this game.

 

 

I will have to agree with this. Denver does turn the ball over, but only had 1 last week against the Chargers. I think the game comes down to the KC D vs. Den O lines. Denver has to protect a hobbled Manning against KC's front 7... a daunting task. Plus, KC has had the bye week to prepare. And, it's a divisional game, where anything can happen.

 

I too see this as a close game, with Denver having the advantage of playing at home.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

KC wins if that little mid.... wait need to be PC here , McCluster picks it up ,,, go ahead and laugh but I see him being possibly a big part of the offense for KC this week

[Big Talker]

I can't believe everyone thinks this is an easy win for Denver.

 

 

I could see the Chiefs winning if 1) the front seven gets in Manning's face quickly; 2) the corners have a fantastic game; 3) the offense commits no TO's. Lacking all that, I'm not so sure. The potential loss of Bowe is ominous, but I'm actually more concerned about the defense after watching a Jeff Tuel-led offense carve them up a couple weeks ago (470 total yards).

[stevegrab]

I could see the Chiefs winning if 1) the front seven gets in Manning's face quickly; 2) the corners have a fantastic game; 3) the offense commits no TO's. Lacking all that, I'm not so sure. The potential loss of Bowe is ominous, but I'm actually more concerned about the defense after watching a Jeff Tuel-led offense carve them up a couple weeks ago (470 total yards).

 

And the week before they gave up a lot of yards to the Browns 3rd string QB (not as many, about 360 total with 300 passing).

 

I don't think it is an easy win for Denver, I don't know who does. But many just see the Chiefs as having a 9-0 record against soft opponents. While the Broncos have one loss to a good Colts team, and some good quality wins.

 

Looking forward to this game, hopefully it lives up to the hype.

[Anthrax1]

I really don't see this as a sure-win for Denver. KC has a pretty stout Def and will probably shut down Denver's running game, which will give KC a lot of chances for pics, not to mention Manning may be a little hurt. A couple of sacks and this game might get away from Denver. Still, the problem is that Denver has so many air targets KC will have to cover man-to-man and Peyton is a master of shredding man-to-man. Den Def better step up or JC is going to do a little shredding of his own.

 

I don't see this as a runaway for Denver, but I think they'll win something like 28-21.

[Gopher]

I can't believe everyone thinks this is an easy win for Denver. I certainly think Denver should win, but they can and do turn the ball over and that's where KC is dangerous. If Denver turns the ball over 3 times again, they could easily lose this game.

 

I'll got out on a limb and say that, if DEN has 3+ turnovers, they will lose this game. I could see DEN blowing them out, simply because of how high-powered Denver's offense can be, and the simple fact that the Chiefs don't have the weapons to keep up... if it indeed becomes a track meet. But, I think it is just as likely (actually, more likely) that the Chiefs keep this game close, for a number of reasons.

 

First and foremost, people seem to have this misconception that Denver has been routinely destroying teams this season. That simply hasn't been the case (at least not as of late). They've had exactly one "easy" win since September, and that was a game in which they trailed 21-7 (at Washington). They barely beat Dallas, struggled (at home) against the Jags, got beat up by Indy, and held on to beat the Chargers. Granted, only the Dallas game would be considered a nail-biter, so I'm not proposing that each of these games could have gone either way, but they most certainly were not easy wins, either. And, before anyone points out that they beat the Chargers more handily than the score would indicate, the same could be said about their loss to the Colts.

 

Second, people can say that KC hasn't played anybody, or that their record is weak/soft, etc., but the same can be said of Denver. Neither team has beaten a team who currently owns a winning record (the closest for either team would be their respective wins over Dallas and Philly... Both 5-5 teams, and both beat one on the road, and the other at home). Their next "best" wins were likely Denver winning at San Diego (4-5), and KC winning at Tennessee (also 4-5). Bottom line... We could play tit-for-tat all day, but neither team's resume is anything close to impressive (outside of the fact that they are winning games that they should win, basically).

 

Third, the Chiefs will score points against Denver's defense. Everybody does. The Broncos continue to give up nearly 28 PPG, and year-to-date, have surrendered more than double what the Chiefs have. I'd say the floor for what KC scores is roughly 20, but the more likely number is high 20's or low 30's.

 

Fourth, the Chiefs defense will get to Manning. Arrowhead is known to be one of the toughest road venues in the NFL, and quite frankly, KC's defense is better than Indy's. In other words, if Robert Mathis can cause Denver fits, Tamba Hali and the rest of the KC defense should get their fair share of chances as well. Manning is arguably the least mobile QB in the league... basically a statue of sorts. I'd say 3-4 sacks, and a couple of turnovers, minimum. If that number creeps up to 3-4 takeaways, the chances that KC wins increase dramatically. If, on the other hand, Denver wins the turnover battle, they win easily. If they stay within 1-2 TO's of KC, it should be a close game.

 

I think the KC home field advantage is being underestimated, and Manning's ankle is also a concern. The longer KC sticks around, the more I like their chances. We should know by the 2nd quarter, which way this game goes. KC either gets blown out, or wins a close game.

 

My prediction... KC wins 31-27.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Gopher

[BA Baracus]

I'll got out on a limb and say that, if DEN has 3+ turnovers, they will lose this game. I could see DEN blowing them out, simply because of how high-powered Denver's offense can be, and the simple fact that the Chiefs don't have the weapons to keep up... if it indeed becomes a track meet. But, I think it is just as likely (actually, more likely) that the Chiefs keep this game close, for a number of reasons.

 

First and foremost, people seem to have this misconception that Denver has been routinely destroying teams out this season. That simply hasn't been the case (at least not as of late). They've had exactly one "easy" win since September, and that was a game in which they trailed 21-7 (at Washington). They barely beat Dallas, struggled (at home) against the Jags, got beat up by Indy, and held on to beat the Chargers. Granted, only the Dallas game would be considered a nail-biter, so I'm not proposing that each of these games could have gone either way, but they most certainly were not easy wins, either. And, before anyone points out that they beat the Chargers more handily than the score would indicate, the same could be said about their loss to the Colts.

 

Second, people can say that KC hasn't played anybody, or that their record is weak/soft, etc., but the same can be said of Denver. Neither team has beaten a team who currently owns a winning record (the closest for either team would be their respective wins over Dallas and Philly... Both 5-5 teams, and both beat one on the road, and the other at home). Their next "best" wins were likely Denver winning at San Diego (4-5), and KC winning at Tennessee (also 4-5). Bottom line... We could play tit-for-tat all day, but neither team's resume is anything close to impressive (outside of the fact that they are winning games that they should win, basically).

 

Third, the Chiefs will score points against Denver's defense. Everybody does. The Broncos continue to give up nearly 28 PPG, and year-to-date, have surrendered more than double what the Chiefs have. I'd say the floor for what KC scores is roughly 20, but the more likely number is high 20's or low 30's.

 

Fourth, the Chiefs defense will get to Manning. Arrowhead is known to be one of the toughest road venues in the NFL, and quite frankly, KC's defense is better than Indy's. In other words, if Robert Mathis can cause Denver fits, Tamba Hali and the rest of the KC defense should get their fair share of chances as well. Manning is arguably the least mobile QB in the league... basically a statue of sorts. I'd say 3-4 sacks, and a couple of turnovers, minimum. If that number creeps up to 3-4 takeaways, the chances that KC wins increase dramatically. If, on the other hand, Denver wins the turnover battle, they win easily. If they stay within 1-2 TO's of KC, it should be a close game.

 

I think the KC home field advantage is being underestimated, and Manning's ankle is also a concern. The longer KC sticks around, the more I like their chances. We should know by the 2nd quarter, which way this game goes. KC either gets blown out, or wins a close game.

 

My prediction... KC wins 31-27.

 

 

The game is at Mile High

[BA Baracus]

I have a nagging feeling that this game is going to be very disappointing for all involved FF owners.

[Gopher]

The game is at Mile High

 

 

OK... Well, that changes things, obviously. I must have mis-read the KC schedule, when looking at team defense schedules for the remainder of the season, and had it stuck in my head that KC was at home this week, and at Denver in Week 13. Save my previous post for two weeks from now, I guess, although this weekend will obviously tell us a lot about how legitimate the Chiefs really are. I still think there is a good chance KC keeps it close, but not being at home does change at least 2-3 components of my argument.

 

DEN 31

KC 24

Edited November 12, 2013 by Gopher

[BA Baracus]

 

OK... Well, that changes things, obviously. I must have mis-read the KC schedule, when looking at team defense schedules for the remainder of the season, and had it stuck in my head that KC was at home this week, and at Denver in Week 13. Save this post for two weeks, I guess, although this weekend will obviously tell us a lot about how legitimate the Chiefs really are. I still think there is a good chance KC keeps it close, but not being at home does change at least 2-3 components of my argument.

 

DEN 31

KC 24

 

 

The rest of your post was quite apt tho. Good points throughout.

 

[Gopher]

Say what you want about KC's schedule, I think it's pretty impressive that they've gone nine weeks without giving up 20 points (maybe longer... I didn't look at last year, since it isn't really relevant). Meanwhile, Denver has given up 20+ every week, with the exception of the 19 that Jacksonville scored against them.

 

In KC's previous 4 road games, they've won each by more than a touchdown... 28-2 (JAC), 26-16 (PHI), 26-17 (TEN), and 23-13 (BUF). I don't know what that means, necessarily, other than that this will obviously be their first major test on the road.

 

I'm really looking forward to this game, regardless of where it is being played. Not from a fantasy perspective, but from a football fan's perspective. Easily the most intriguing game this year, so far....

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Say what you want about KC's schedule, I think it's pretty impressive that they've gone nine weeks without giving up 20 points (maybe longer... I didn't look at last year, since it isn't really relevant). Meanwhile, Denver has given up 20+ every week, with the exception of the 19 that Jacksonville scored against them.

 

In KC's previous 4 road games, they've won each by more than a touchdown... 28-2 (JAC), 26-16 (PHI), 26-17 (TEN), and 23-13 (BUF). I don't know what that means, necessarily, other than that this will obviously be their first major test on the road.

 

I'm really looking forward to this game, regardless of where it is being played. Not from a fantasy perspective, but from a football fan's perspective. Easily the most intriguing game this year, so far....

 

We had two teams going into this week , both 0-8 , both underdogs , both won , not sure if that has ever happened before and even know less than what that has to do with your thoughtful post , just saying anything can happen and that is why they play the games and why the sports books make so much $$

[bud29]

It'll come down to pressuring manning for sure. Against San Diego, Peyton.....well......did not look like Peyton when there were defenders in his face. As a Chiefs fan, it's a bit disconcerting that KC couldn't come up with a single sack against the Bills. However, I could see them getting fired up and wreaking havoc. If they can't penetrate the Denver O line, it could get ugly.

 

Without getting to Manning:

KC 13

DEN 31

 

Getting to Manning:

Anybody's ball game

[Gopher]

We had two teams going into this week , both 0-8 , both underdogs , both won , not sure if that has ever happened before and even know less than what that has to do with your thoughtful post , just saying anything can happen and that is why they play the games and why the sports books make so much $$

 

I get that anything can happen. Denver could win in a landslide, and so could KC, frankly. All I'm saying is that KC has performed pretty well on the road, so far this year. Those aren't playoff teams, but other than Jacksonville, they're not exactly bottom-dwellers, either. The fact that they've won all four by (nearly) double-digits tells me they've played well on the road, relatively speaking.

 

I'm just putting my thoughts on paper, so to speak, in terms of what I think is likely to happen. Nothing is a sure thing, and like you said, that's why they play the games. Based on trends, based on what we've seen through half of a season, etc., I can tell you a few things about these two teams. KC plays well on the road, Denver gives up a ton of points against pretty much everybody, and KC gets to the QB almost every week. Those three things lead me to believe that KC can make it interesting.

 

The flip-side to that is Denver gets up 14-0 early, KC has to press to try to keep up, and it gets ugly. I'd like to think that won't happen, but who knows. I would prefer to watch a close/interesting game, but not so much that I think my "bias" causes me to view things unrealistically. I have no rooting interest in either team, and don't really care who wins. If I had to put money on it, though, I'd say it's highly likely that these two teams split their two matchups in the next three weeks. That said, if one team is more likely than the other, to win both games, I don't think it should be a foregone conclusion that Denver is the more likely team to do so.

 

In other words, I'm not so sure Denver is more likely to win in KC, than KC is to win in Denver.

[stevegrab]

We had two teams going into this week , both 0-8 , both underdogs , both won , not sure if that has ever happened before and even know less than what that has to do with your thoughtful post , just saying anything can happen and that is why they play the games and why the sports books make so much $$

 

 

The Vikings also won their first game on American soil to start the week.

 

 

No doubt KC getting pressure on Manning is going to be key.

 

As far as their defense and it holding opponents to under 20 points, the Broncos are much better than most of those teams, only DAL & PHI are even close. Broncos have averaged 41.2 PPG, the Chiefs opponents averaged JAX=12.8, DAL=27.4, PHI=25.2, NYG=18.3, TEN=22.2, OAK=18.4, HOU=18.9, CLE=19.1, BUF=19.9

 

Of their 9 wins, 6 teams average lower than 20 points per game, so holding them to their average isn't that impressive.

 

Also KC averages 23.9 points, so they're probably going to need to score more as well as holding DEN to less than their average to get a win.

[Chief Dick]

Good stuff Gopher. A lot of truth in there. My gut just tells me it goes the bad way, unfortunately. We'll see.

[Gopher]

The Vikings also won their first game on American soil to start the week.

 

 

No doubt KC getting pressure on Manning is going to be key.

 

As far as their defense and it holding opponents to under 20 points, the Broncos are much better than most of those teams, only DAL & PHI are even close. Broncos have averaged 41.2 PPG, the Chiefs opponents averaged JAX=12.8, DAL=27.4, PHI=25.2, NYG=18.3, TEN=22.2, OAK=18.4, HOU=18.9, CLE=19.1, BUF=19.9

 

Of their 9 wins, 6 teams average lower than 20 points per game, so holding them to their average isn't that impressive.

 

Also KC averages 23.9 points, so they're probably going to need to score more as well as holding DEN to less than their average to get a win.

 

Obviously, Denver is better than the teams KC has played so far.. Nobody is disputing that. The same can be said for the other side of that coin. All I'm saying is that holding your opponents under 20, for nine weeks straight, is somewhat impressive... regardless of who you've played. Not impressive in the sense that KC is a dominant team, necessarily, but impressive in that they've been very consistent... Much more consistent than the Broncos have been. Most NFL teams have off-weeks, particularly on the road, multiple times throughout a 16-game season. Through 9 games, the Chiefs really haven't had that. That's all I'm saying.

 

Does that mean the Chiefs win, or even keep it close? Of course not... For all I know, the Chiefs could get crushed, and end up 10-6. Again, I'm just hoping it's an entertaining game, and I think it will be.

 

All things considered (and considering who they've played), I'm not so sure both teams aren't slightly overrated, with the best team in the NFL residing in the NFC (West).

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

OK two teams 0-8 one from AFC south & one NFC south , both underdogs , both win , but it is week 11 and they each only played 9 games ?? so who is on first & who did the surgery ?

[Big John]

OK two teams 0-8 one from AFC south & one NFC south , both underdogs , both win , but it is week 11 and they each only played 9 games ?? so who is on first & who did the surgery ?

 

Last week was week 10 and both teams had their bye week.

[51Butkus]

The game is at Mile High

 

 

Dwayne Bowe certainly got the memo.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Last week was week 10 and both teams had their bye week.

 

you knew I was kidding right , even though the Cowboys aren't involved the BBroncos are so I was making a joke because their is a BBronco fan here that scares me

[stevegrab]

Obviously, Denver is better than the teams KC has played so far.. Nobody is disputing that. The same can be said for the other side of that coin. All I'm saying is that holding your opponents under 20, for nine weeks straight, is somewhat impressive... regardless of who you've played. Not impressive in the sense that KC is a dominant team, necessarily, but impressive in that they've been very consistent... Much more consistent than the Broncos have been. Most NFL teams have off-weeks, particularly on the road, multiple times throughout a 16-game season. Through 9 games, the Chiefs really haven't had that. That's all I'm saying.

 

Does that mean the Chiefs win, or even keep it close? Of course not... For all I know, the Chiefs could get crushed, and end up 10-6. Again, I'm just hoping it's an entertaining game, and I think it will be.

 

All things considered (and considering who they've played), I'm not so sure both teams aren't slightly overrated, with the best team in the NFL residing in the NFC (West).

I keep looking at the stats to provide info that backs up my gut feeling based on seeing the teams play. I think I've seen 3 Chiefs games, @PHI, CLE and @BUF. They killed PHI on the road. They struggled against the Browns and Bills, both .500 or worse teams. I expected them to handle those two games more easily. I've seen a lot of Broncos games, and only remember them struggling against DAL and IND, both much better than CLE/BUF. Yes they were down early to WAS, but knowing their offensive power I figured they'd come back.

 

The more I review and think about it, I realize I have a bias for DEN that is clouding my judgement. They have been a good team recently, while KC is not so I'm probably giving them the benefit of the doubt on more things.

[Tripleshot]

CD had me at "bbq".