The Huddles "In Season Articles"

[jonny2fngrs]

I have been a member for a while and for some reason this season I am having trouble figuring out some of these articles worthiness. The 3 sections I look to the most are the Free Agent Forecast, Rest of Season Rankings, and Weekly Player Rankings. I have no issues with the Free Agent Forecast as it is what it is but the other two constantly leave me scratching my head and I am beginning to wonder if there is something I am missing about them. Lets start with RoS rankings...

 

Lynch and McCoy are 3 and 4 on the list and with only 3 weeks left they are going to miss 33% of the regular season. Would anyone really take them over Forte? This goes for any player who has yet to have their bye...how can they hold the same value as a similar player who has had their bye? Or is that what I am missing value does not equal ranking? Not sure but even that doesn't explaing how V. Cruz is still ranked higher than A. Johnson, Welker, or Garcon. I would love to trade Cruz for one of those guys straight up but short of a free yahoo league with a bunch of NYG homers, I doubt that is going to happen. What am I missing here?

 

And next is the weekly player rankings. So based on my league scoring the top wr should be V Jackson but only with a 3 star ConFac yet Garcon is projected to score 21 with a 5 star ConFac. How can anyone make any logical sense out of that? Does that mean VJax would be a good bet for 15 points on a 5 star ConFac or would Garcon be projected at 35 points with only a 3 star ConFac. Can't we just say Megatron is going to be projected a 50 points every week with a 1 star ConFac. It just doesn't seem consistent to me and as much as I like the concept of the weekly rankings, I find this article to be useless unless I am again missing something.

 

If anyone can shed some light on this, thanks in advance.

[stevegrab]

ROS rankings are for the Rest Of The season, not just through the end of fantasy regular season (13 in many leagues). I don't think they heavily factor in the bye, every player has one at some point, just because a player still has their bye left doesn't make them worth that much less the rest of the way. I use those the most when deciding whether to hold on to one player over another, or whether a player on waivers is a better option at a position over others on my roster.

 

As far as the weekling rankings, the confidence factors (ConFac) is simply that, how confident are they that the player will have the projected results. Just because one player has a higher number does not mean they must also have a higher ConFac value.

 

Disclaimer: I'm not a paying member this year, but was last year and followed both of those articles regularly. I believe ConFac was introduced last year or in 2011 and was a welcome addition by many.

[delusions of grandeur]

And next is the weekly player rankings. So based on my league scoring the top wr should be V Jackson but only with a 3 star ConFac yet Garcon is projected to score 21 with a 5 star ConFac. How can anyone make any logical sense out of that? Does that mean VJax would be a good bet for 15 points on a 5 star ConFac or would Garcon be projected at 35 points with only a 3 star ConFac. Can't we just say Megatron is going to be projected a 50 points every week with a 1 star ConFac. It just doesn't seem consistent to me and as much as I like the concept of the weekly rankings, I find this article to be useless unless I am again missing something.

 

 

You are misunderstanding what the ConFac is there for. Yes, you could "just say Megatron is going to be projected a 50 points every week with a 1 star ConFac", but that doesn't make any sense when you can say with great confidence that he should have a very good week. The goal of the rankings is to tell you what the most likely scenario will be, and in Calvin's case, it's always a strong start (with of course a smaller potential for a really great one, but you can't say with great confidence that it's as likely as what they have projected).

 

Now looking at Vincent Jackson, he's been a target monster in past weeks and had some big games, but has also disappeared the last 2 weeks. Thus, they think he can meet their projection, but can't say that with great confidence, because he's prone to disappearing as well. On the other hand, RG3 seems to be locked in Garcon right now, so they can say with greater confidence that this is likely to continue.

 

An easy way to look at it is that not all projections are equal. Some situations can be predicted with a greater degree of confidence, whereas some are not as clear.... But they can't just pick and choose which players to project, they have to project everyone, even those in murky situations.

 

Thus, the ConFac tells you that they think that VJax should put up these numbers, but that they can say with more certainty that Garcon should meet his.

 

It is just another tool for you to make your decisions, and then you can decide things like whether you go for the safer but more modest production, or swing for the fences with a more boom/bust guy, and things like that. Don't take it as gospel, use it to help make your own decisions, and you'll find it much more helpful.

 

(ETA: I don't mean to act like I know their reasoning behind their rankings, they may be taking other factors into consideration, just trying to explain how the ConFac works with an example of their possible reasoning)

Edited November 13, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[keggerz]

And next is the weekly player rankings. So based on my league scoring the top wr should be V Jackson but only with a 3 star ConFac yet Garcon is projected to score 21 with a 5 star ConFac. How can anyone make any logical sense out of that? Does that mean VJax would be a good bet for 15 points on a 5 star ConFac or would Garcon be projected at 35 points with only a 3 star ConFac. Can't we just say Megatron is going to be projected a 50 points every week with a 1 star ConFac. It just doesn't seem consistent to me and as much as I like the concept of the weekly rankings, I find this article to be useless unless I am again missing something.

 

If anyone can shed some light on this, thanks in advance.

 

ConFac(Confidence Factor) is just that, how confident we are that that player will achieve the projection that they were given. There can be any given number of things that can impact a ConFac...things like an opposing defense possibly being without a top CB, pass rusher etc...a WRs QB being questionable or having been erratic...possible impending bad weather...all those types of things can impact how confident we are in a projection. Hope that helps. Edited November 13, 2013 by keggerz

[keggerz]

let me also add that if you use the PVT (player write-ups) along with the projections that it also helps to add clarity and understanding for why a player is projected like they are.

[keggerz]

 

 

(ETA: I don't mean to act like I know their reasoning behind their rankings, they may be taking other factors into consideration, just trying to explain how the ConFac works with an example of their possible reasoning)

 

I'll use an example from how I do IDPs and maybe that will help...Paul Posluszny suffered a concussion last week and when I was doing projections there was no clear indication on if he would play or not...that means whatever I project for him, be it zeros across the board or 8 solos and a sack, I'm giving him a 1 ConFac...Friday when I do my updates if it says he's probable to play I will more than likely adjust my projection and ConFac and my ConFac will more than likely be dependent on his injury status.

[DMD]

Echo what was said.

 

A projection is what you think the most likely stat would be given all history and variables. It is but one of many possible outcomes but it is the one that you think is most likely. But you have to express it all in a single number. As stated - the Peyton Mannings, Calvin Johnsons and Jamaal Charles out there are pretty much 5 star. You can feel really really good about using them. There is a wealth of reasons why a particular projection can occur. But for guys say like Jarrett Boykin in his first ever start. You have to come up with a number, but how much do you have to go on considering you have never seen the player before? And there are a ton of pretty inconsistent players out there. While I have done projections for the 17 years of The Huddle, I know as well as anyone what a projection can and cannot say. It was a way to help people beyond the number. If you have player X forecasted with 14 fantasy points and 5 stars and player Y has 16 points but only two stars, I would probably prefer Player X. Projections also can be problematic by themselves when you factor in a TD. That can greatly change their ranking based on one single pass they may or may not catch. Some places use fractional TDs which I never have.

 

There are a lot of factors going into a ranking that cannot be controlled by a single number projection. Even less since people like to use custom rankings based on their scoring so we lose all control where a player falls into relation to another. Confidence factors tries to address that a little.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

ConFac(Confidence Factor) is just that, how confident we are that that player will achieve the projection that they were given. There can be any given number of things that can impact a ConFac...things like an opposing defense possibly being without a top CB, pass rusher etc...a WRs QB being questionable or having been erratic...possible impending bad Josh Gordon...all those types of things can impact how confident we are in a projection. Hope that helps.

 

fixed , signed Dewayne Bowe

[Tripleshot]

I still can't find the lineup optimization link, where I input my roster and am told who to start every week, which, of course, has a Huddle membership money-back guarantee.

Edited November 14, 2013 by Tripleshot

[MikesVikes]

Five star is money back guarantee. Three star is, "as long as you actually followed our advice and drafted this guy, you might as well play him against the Cowboys." Works like a charm.

[Jackass]

i wouldn't worry about the bye weeks; that would be a huge pain to factor in each week and you can see who has a bye and adjust down if you want.

 

My confidence in the confidence factor is 2 stars.

[jonny2fngrs]

Thanks for all the replies and I am trying to follow. I know it is hard to project for a player with an injury concern but I still am having difficulty understanding why there would be multiple ConFac for 2 healthy players such as VJax and Garcon. If you are not that confident that VJax will be the top scoring wr then why not project him to be top 15 and use same ConFac across the board. I guess what I was expecting, based on all things equal (and assuming no injury concerns) that projections would take matchups, location, and such into consideration and provide a ranking that one could look at gauge all players for a given week without having to break out my calculus. The example above with player X and Y was not too difficult but what if player X had 30pts and 3 stars versus player Y with 21pts and 5 stars? Maybe if the stars had a value such as 10% or 20% it would make adjusting the projections a little easier.

 

As for the RoS rankings, if they are in fact for entire season then I would like to think the Huddle, as the premier fantasy football site, could come up with something a little more relevant for fantasy owners. I would like to think most of us that use this site are not your "free yahoo league" type owners and are in highly competitive leagues. That being the case we don't get points going forward for what a player has or has not done only what they will do. If I don't make the playoffs then I don't care what a player does after week 13. Going into week 11 and trade deadlines looming, I absolutely do care that Lynch and McCoy have yet to have their bye and it should be reflected in their value. As a Cruz owner, I have held on to him this long because the RoS rankings have consistently had him as a top 6 wr and the guy hasn't scored a TD or had over 90 yards since week 4. I mean it should be easy to test...Just try to trade McCoy for Forte or Cruz for Welker in any of your leagues and see if anyone would do it. If they do please let me know as I would like to invite them to my league next year and will send the limo for them

 

Thanks again for the responses

[stevegrab]

Thanks for all the replies and I am trying to follow. I know it is hard to project for a player with an injury concern but I still am having difficulty understanding why there would be multiple ConFac for 2 healthy players such as VJax and Garcon. If you are not that confident that VJax will be the top scoring wr then why not project him to be top 15 and use same ConFac across the board. I guess what I was expecting, based on all things equal (and assuming no injury concerns) that projections would take matchups, location, and such into consideration and provide a ranking that one could look at gauge all players for a given week without having to break out my calculus. The example above with player X and Y was not too difficult but what if player X had 30pts and 3 stars versus player Y with 21pts and 5 stars? Maybe if the stars had a value such as 10% or 20% it would make adjusting the projections a little easier.

 

As for the RoS rankings, if they are in fact for entire season then I would like to think the Huddle, as the premier fantasy football site, could come up with something a little more relevant for fantasy owners. I would like to think most of us that use this site are not your "free yahoo league" type owners and are in highly competitive leagues. That being the case we don't get points going forward for what a player has or has not done only what they will do. If I don't make the playoffs then I don't care what a player does after week 13. Going into week 11 and trade deadlines looming, I absolutely do care that Lynch and McCoy have yet to have their bye and it should be reflected in their value. As a Cruz owner, I have held on to him this long because the RoS rankings have consistently had him as a top 6 wr and the guy hasn't scored a TD or had over 90 yards since week 4. I mean it should be easy to test...Just try to trade McCoy for Forte or Cruz for Welker in any of your leagues and see if anyone would do it. If they do please let me know as I would like to invite them to my league next year and will send the limo for them

 

Thanks again for the responses

 

I still think you're overthinking the ConFac, as everybody has explained "it is their confidence in the predicted stats", nothing more than that. Also not sure what you mean by

"I still am having difficulty understanding why there would be multiple ConFac for 2 healthy players such as VJax and Garcon."

Each player has one ConFac and only one (that I recall). Those may change from week to week depending on a mutitude of factors. Two completely healthy players can have two different ConFac because of things like matchup, weather, and more.

 

ROS

But if you do make the playoffs you do care about weeks 14-16. Do you want multiple ROS ranking, or the ability to say which weeks you want to include (when it stops). Other sites that I've seen with similar rankings all work the same, they cover the "rest of the season" usually including week 17 even though most leagues are done by then (but I suspect most non H2H leagues play that week).

[Delicious_bass]

Thanks for all the replies and I am trying to follow. I know it is hard to project for a player with an injury concern but I still am having difficulty understanding why there would be multiple ConFac for 2 healthy players such as VJax and Garcon. If you are not that confident that VJax will be the top scoring wr then why not project him to be top 15 and use same ConFac across the board. I guess what I was expecting, based on all things equal (and assuming no injury concerns) that projections would take matchups, location, and such into consideration and provide a ranking that one could look at gauge all players for a given week without having to break out my calculus. The example above with player X and Y was not too difficult but what if player X had 30pts and 3 stars versus player Y with 21pts and 5 stars? Maybe if the stars had a value such as 10% or 20% it would make adjusting the projections a little easier.

 

As for the RoS rankings, if they are in fact for entire season then I would like to think the Huddle, as the premier fantasy football site, could come up with something a little more relevant for fantasy owners. I would like to think most of us that use this site are not your "free yahoo league" type owners and are in highly competitive leagues. That being the case we don't get points going forward for what a player has or has not done only what they will do. If I don't make the playoffs then I don't care what a player does after week 13. Going into week 11 and trade deadlines looming, I absolutely do care that Lynch and McCoy have yet to have their bye and it should be reflected in their value. As a Cruz owner, I have held on to him this long because the RoS rankings have consistently had him as a top 6 wr and the guy hasn't scored a TD or had over 90 yards since week 4. I mean it should be easy to test...Just try to trade McCoy for Forte or Cruz for Welker in any of your leagues and see if anyone would do it. If they do please let me know as I would like to invite them to my league next year and will send the limo for them

 

Thanks again for the responses

 

First, you're putting way too much thought into the Confidence Factor. All projections are an educated guess and the CF is basically a guess as to how accurate the first guess is. As I have said before, the CF is pointless to me. When I see a stud like Calvin Johnson projected for > 100 yards and 1-2 TDs and Conf Factor of 5, I know what went into that projection and I would expect the most confidence. When I see more of an unknown player projected for 50 yards and no TDs and a Conf Factor of 1,2, or 3, I know what went into that projection. Part of the reason I have been a paying customer here for as long as I have is I trust the projections take into account all the relevant info and are the best guess as to what will happen. Attempting to assign a value as to how accurate that best guess is does nothing for me.

Next, you seem to be confused as to what a ROS ranking is here. Its a rank of the player's value from now until the end of the fantasy season (typically, NFL Week 16). Its purpose is to help owners evaluate which player hold more value for the rest of the way. If you only care to know what value they hold in the more short term future, then look at the weekly projections. And if you're looking for something somewhere in between, well, you may just have to make your own mind up on where players belong. Not to be a Richard, but how much spoonfeeding do you really want or need? ETA:stevegrab beat me to most of this

Edited November 14, 2013 by Delicious_bass

[jonny2fngrs]

I don't need or want any spoonfeeding. I am just trying to determine if I am missing something or if these articles hold little value to me. For me money talks so usually when someone pipes off and makes a bold claim someone can expect to hear "BET". My point is, if you are going to have VJax as your top scoring wr of the week you better damn well be fairly certain in your projections, otherwise lower his numbers. Its kinda like if you ask me to pick a winner this week and I come back with Minnesota over Seattle. Sure if they somehow win I look like a genius but do I really want to look like an idiot 20 times just to look like a genius once. Rarely do I spend more than 5 or 10 minutes looking at these articles so having list uses the same ConFac across the board would be more beneficial to me. Thats just me, I guess I will be benching Brees this week in favor of Keenum because he is more likely to score 24 points than Brees.

 

And with the RoS rankings, I guess I thought they would be fairly accurate in terms of if a new league were to be drafted each week, how would they be ranked. Instead, I think this is a list from week 1 in which each week a handful of guys with big games, injuries, or bad games gets bumped up or down.

[stevegrab]

It is obvious you are missing many things, tact, brains, the ability to think on your own and so much more.

 

I don't know why any of us tried to explain anything to you, its obvious you think the predictions are crap and not worth trusting.

[Papajohn]

I don't need or want any spoonfeeding. I am just trying to determine if I am missing something or if these articles hold little value to me. For me money talks so usually when someone pipes off and makes a bold claim someone can expect to hear "BET". My point is, if you are going to have VJax as your top scoring wr of the week you better damn well be fairly certain in your projections, otherwise lower his numbers. Its kinda like if you ask me to pick a winner this week and I come back with Minnesota over Seattle. Sure if they somehow win I look like a genius but do I really want to look like an idiot 20 times just to look like a genius once. Rarely do I spend more than 5 or 10 minutes looking at these articles so having list uses the same ConFac across the board would be more beneficial to me. Thats just me, I guess I will be benching Brees this week in favor of Keenum because he is more likely to score 24 points than Brees.

 

And with the RoS rankings, I guess I thought they would be fairly accurate in terms of if a new league were to be drafted each week, how would they be ranked. Instead, I think this is a list from week 1 in which each week a handful of guys with big games, injuries, or bad games gets bumped up or down.

 

 

Nobody is spoon feeding you anything. You basically just don't get it when it comes it projections and confidence rating. Without being a bag of dicks I would suggest you pick up an beginner's guide to basic statistics.

[BeachBum]

This is all pretty funny.

 

If you use MFL for a league, you are spoon-fed Sharks predictions for a player for that week. When I see those I add my own ConFac - I predict whether or not I believe them to be correct. So if I have 2 WRs one predicted to 10 points and another at 6, I decide if I think either or both will come ttrue and pick accordingly.

 

At the Huddle it's nice to have the predictor actually give you HIS (or HER) confidence in that prediction, to add in with mine.

 

Oh, yeah and then start the player who will score the most points.

[boltnlava]

I'll tell you what's "Missing"....The SOLR (Strength Of Luck Ranking) . Could you put that in for me DMD???

[Big John]

I'll tell you what's "Missing"....The SOLR (Strength Of Luck Ranking) . Could you put that in for me DMD???

 

And for non Colts without Andrew Luck?

[BA Baracus]

The projection is what they think the player will do. Confidence factor is how likely they think it is yhat he willl meet or exceed the projection.

 

Example

 

You can project a guy like steve johnson for 6/70/1 any week thst he is active. If he's fully healthy and going against a secondary that is depleted by injury, he get 5 stars. If he is going against Joe Haden but he's healthy, he gets 3 stars. If he's hurt and facing top coverage he gets one star.

[MikesVikes]

Seriously, if you don't care how your players do in the playoffs if you ever make the playoffs then fantasy football may not be for you.

 

You must be in a competitive league because you get your arse handed to you more than once in awhile.

 

If a player is questionable to play, that doesn't equate to 40 of 50% of their normal production.

 

I usually don't even look at the confidence factor and perhaps you shouldn't either. If player A is the 6th ranked player while player B is the 15rh ranked player for the week, which one starts? OR if player A is projected to score 25 points in YOUR scoring rules while player B is only projected to score 16, which one do you start?

[BA Baracus]

I personally like the con fac. It gives me a clearer picture of DMD's opinion, which I respect and use as a significant influence on my weekly WDIS decisions.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

 

 

If player A is the 6th ranked player while player B is the 15rh ranked player for the week, which one starts? OR if player A is projected to score 25 points in YOUR scoring rules while player B is only projected to score 16, which one do you start?

 

 

the one that plays on Monday night ?

[Phat Rugby]

I have been a Huddle subscriber for a number of years and if you are looking for a site to pick your lineup, draft players and pick up free agents, you should look elsewhere. What the site does, is makes you think and gives some insight into your decisions. The projections are not a magic ball. So if Vincent Jackson is projected to have a lot of points, it means he SHOULD have a lot of points due to the matchup. However, we all know that VJax likes to disappear (I know, I own him in a league) and cannot really predict when that will happen. So, the porjection is made with lower confidence. Take a consistant performer like a Peterson, CJohnson, AJGreen, etc., and your confidence level is higher as they most likely will perform as predicted.

 

The only thing I miss is projections from a couple sources. One of my favorite articles was where 2 different guys made thier projections and then had a discussion on the players that were drastically different. It gave another perspective.

 

As far as some of the other articles, they are entertaining and some make you think just a bit more.