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Percy Harvin projections for rest of season?


Papa Deuce
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All indications point to the Seahawks easing him back in gradually. Of course, we thought that with the Giants and Andre Brown, but they have nothing else in their backfield to turn to, and the Seahawks feel they don't have to rush Harvin back. That said, watch him go off on one of his first handful of plays and force their hand.

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He is the 2013 year end difference maker....

 

7 TDs

649 yards

47 catches

 

I thought he would be great in this offense before he got hurt, I am staying with that now that he is healthy.... I am a Percliever!!!

 

 

Too optimistic. One, he's going to be eased back initially. Two, the Seahawks don't throw enough to get him an average of 8 catches and 110 yards per game even if they weren't going to take the cautious route with him.

 

I'm going to Price Is Right that prediction.

 

4 TDs

511 yards

39 Catches

 

 

This is a little closer to what can be expected, but still likely too optimistic on the catches and maybe even yards end.

 

The focal point of the offense is still going to be running the ball. Harvin just gives them a ton more options when they pass.

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I don't know what his stats for the rest of the season will be, but I do know that I am starting him right away. Easing him in my ass, they want production from him and they want it right away.

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I think they intend to give him a slightly less than normal workload, meaning fewer snaps, but probably still close to 8 touches with which he could potentially eclipse 100 total yards... Or not break 40. Still, since he is playing the Vikings who didn't want him (and with whom he might have a chip on his shoulder - he was rumored to have wanted out of Minnesota anyway before he did leave), I think he it's he worth the risk this week if you don't mind the risk of a dud.

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I don't know what his stats for the rest of the season will be, but I do know that I am starting him right away. Easing him in my ass, they want production from him and they want it right away.

 

I have to save this quote for later :rolleyes:
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I've got him stashed in a couple of leagues, just in case injuries cause me to become desperate, OR on the slight chance that he greatly outperforms my expectations. But, in my opinion, if you're holding him and expecting WR1 (or even WR2) production, right out of the gate, for the next six weeks, you're most likely going to be sorely disappointed. There are too many variables that would lead me to believe that that is an unlikely outcome.

 

- He will be eased into their plans. SEA is bringing him back because they need him for the NFL playoffs, not fantasy football playoffs. :lol:

 

- They're already winning without him, and four of their remaining six games are at home. They are one of only two NFL teams to have already played six road games (speaking of which, how in the world is Philly 5-1 on the road, and 0-4 at home?). :wacko:

 

- They have their bye next week. All the more reason why he'll see limited time this weekend. Why rush him back, against MIN (a game they should win by 3 TD's minimum), when you have a bye next week? I'm guessing he wants to play against his old team, and Pete Carroll seems like the type to let things like that matter, but it's not like it's going to be a game where they need Percy to win. MIN might keep it close for a while, but it's bound to get ugly, sooner or later (unless SEA sleeps on MIN like they did TB, but I'd say that's unlikely).

 

- They have a 2-game lead over SF. Even if SF beats them to split HTH, they still have an advantage in that SEA plays NO at home, while SF travels to NO. Their next toughest win will be at the Giants, a game they should win easily. In other words, it's unlikely that SEA doesn't win the division, and take the #1 seed as well. If anything, they need to get Harvin ready to contribute against NO (Week 13), not the Vikes in Week 11.

 

I think a much more realistic set of projections (and this might be optomistic, if they do truly ease him in, which is quite possible) is:

 

25 catches

325 rec yards

100 rush yards

3 TD's total

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The Seahawks have been bringing him along slowly, but once he gets unleashed, he isn't a guy you can hold back if you value your eardrums. He'll play sparingly this week, then has a bye. After that, he plays most snaps and easily leads the team in targets. The Hawks passing game hopefully doesn't throw more than about 25 times per game, so he should figure on 5-7 targets most weeks, a couple carries per week, and a kick return here and there. He'll have big weeks, and a couple where there just aren't enough balls to get him a credible fantasy game, especially if he's the focus of the defense. I don't really play the statistics game, but those thinking he isn't going to be featured prominently during a push for home field throughout, with huge games against the Saints and 49ers on the horizon, are being wayyy too cautious. We didn't give up a first rounder and pay him big bucks to just become another piece of the puzzle.

Edited by Seahawks21
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The Seahawks have been bringing him along slowly, but once he gets unleashed, he isn't a guy you can hold back if you value your eardrums. He'll play sparingly this week, then has a bye. After that, he plays most snaps and easily leads the team in targets. The Hawks passing game hopefully doesn't throw more than about 25 times per game, so he should figure on 5-7 targets most weeks, a couple carries per week, and a kick return here and there. He'll have big weeks, and a couple where there just aren't enough balls to get him a credible fantasy game, especially if he's the focus of the defense. I don't really play the statistics game, but those thinking he isn't going to be featured prominently during a push for home field throughout, with huge games against the Saints and 49ers on the horizon, are being wayyy too cautious. We didn't give up a first rounder and pay him big bucks to just become another piece of the puzzle.

 

The fact that he'll most likely be on a snap count doesn't mean he's just another "piece of the puzzle." They're going to ease him in this week, so that they have a better idea of how much they can use him in Week 13 and beyond. And, like I said, they may not need to win Week 17... or even 16, for that matter... depending on how their next 4 games go.

 

Certainly, if they're fighting for the division a month from now, and he's 100% healthy, he's going to play a large role in the offense (I would think). In fact, if he handles this week without any cause for concern, I would expect him to be a full go for the New Orleans game in Week 13. But, like you said, the primary passing target in their offense might only get 5-7 balls thrown his way... which equates (most likely) to 3-5 catches per game... which adds up to about what I projected above.

 

All I'm saying is that they're going to be cautious with him, until they know he can handle playing full games. Maybe this week will be enough of a sample for them to make that determination. But, 50 (or even 40) catches is pretty unrealistic, IMO, given all of the factors to consider (not the least of which is the fact that SEA is a run-first offense). Even if he were to play the remaining 6 games at 100% (no limitation or snap count), I'd say his ceiling is 5-6 catches per game (30-35 total). That's a big "if"... In fact, it's pretty much guaranteed not to happen (not the 30-35 catches, but the 6 full games with no limitations).

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Harvin has a week 12 Bye, Keggerz. Please do not forget that Harvin also runs the football so 100 yrds if he is 100% healthy is a good average. The question is the TDs.. I would go with 5TDs and hope for more.

 

my post was tongue in cheek
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Nothing for first quarter and a half. Caught a 17-yard pass midway through the 2nd quarter, and he drew a big PI flag on a deep ball as well. Also returned a kickoff into MIN territory. So, for the first half, just one catch (17 yards), but he made a couple of big plays that didn't involve offensive touches, technically.

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