Papa Deuce Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 (edited) I am seriously considering not keeping him for next year. We must keep 4 players. We start 3 WR, and will have a flex next season. In my league he is ahead of last year's pace for TD's, but behind in YPC, rushing yards, and points.... Granted, he has been banged up this season, but that is my point....he will be 29 next season, so close to the dreaded 30 year slide for RBs. I'm not asking for trade advice, but let me just put this out there; I may not keep him, or I may dangle him as trade bait. With 4 keepers, I will likely keep 1. Calvin 2. Julio 3. Josh Gordon, if he stays clean over the off season 4. Matthew Stafford, Peterson, D-Jax, or whomever I trade Peterson for..... If I trade for someone, I must keep who I get in return. He has me worried. EDIT: Had Julio not gone down, I likely would have had 4 of the top 8 WR's in scoring for my league. Maybe 4 of the top 6. And they can all start. Edited November 28, 2013 by Papa Deuce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satelliteoflovegm Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 There will be a point when trading him is wise and he still has top value. I would say that time has not come yet. He is pretty much the only sure thing at RB and one of the few 1st round RB picks to not disappoint. Charles, Forte, and maybe a 3rd guy that doesn't come to mind. (Lynch) AP is a one of the few remaining set it and forget RB's. I like having one fewer decisions to make each week. If the Vikings square away the QB spot, HAHA, then I think he regains is alien freak stature. Having said all that, everyone is tradable depending on the return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 This thread seems oddly disguised as an advice post.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 This thread seems oddly disguised as an advice post.... Keeping my eye on it as it is borderline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 (edited) Keeping my eye on it as it is borderline. I'm not asking for advice but here are the guys I would keep. All that's missing is "what do you think?" LOL and yeah, with those options I'd keep AP as my 4th. unless you can trade him for a younger stud RB Edited November 28, 2013 by Zooty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I would say it's more of a plateau. Hard to improve on last season. Not like he's had a BAD season here in 2013. Still a stud, but there's plenty of reasons to think he may start to slowly decline over the next 1-3 seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Deuce Posted November 28, 2013 Author Share Posted November 28, 2013 (edited) Well, it wasn't meant for advice, regardless of what anybody thinks. I just type what my brain thinks before I think it out sometimes. I could easily have put it in the advice area. So no, no advice needed. Edited November 28, 2013 by Papa Deuce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tripleshot Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 (edited) The dude comes back from a torn ACL in 3 1/2 weeks and then goes out and runs for 9000 yards when he is supposed to be recovering from said torm ACL and you're worried about him declining because he's 29 years old. Methinks he's going to be one of those rare RBs who remain a stud well into their 30s. He's good for at least another year, if not more, and if he starts to show signs of slowing down next year, then you can ditch him. Your WR corp should more than carry you. Edited November 28, 2013 by Tripleshot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I think he's going to do what all RBs do and start a decline right around 30 years of age. I LOVE Adrian Peterson as a player and have won championships with him in the past. The harsh reality is that the team around him is really bad and I seriously think he made a deal with the devil last year and whatever he was taking has to be paid for by his body eventually. Not predicting a decline but wouldn't be surprised by it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Deuce Posted November 28, 2013 Author Share Posted November 28, 2013 The dude comes back from a torn ACL in 3 1/2 weeks and then goes out and runs for 9000 yards when he is supposed to be recovering from said torm ACL and you're worried about him declining because he's 29 years old. Methinks he's going to be one of those rare RBs who remain a stud well into their 30s. He's good for at least another year, if not more, and if he starts to show signs of slowing down next year, then you can ditch him. Your WR corp should more than carry you. I may have mentioned he will be 29, but my biggest concern is that he looked much better last year, and now he has another year away from surgery, and looks slower.... But maybe not less beastly. I think he is starting to decline, but I wanted opinions. Thanks for yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faceplant Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 He's good for at least another year, if not more, and if he starts to show signs of slowing down next year, then you can ditch him. This is probably spot on. I think he's got at least one more year of guaranteed +1000yds, 10TDs if healthy. So I'd keep him. After that, who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 He will be in decline at least 2 times this week as he slows down after crossing the goal line. He's got another 4-5 years of big production in front of him, so as far as NFL RB's go, I'd say no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Adrian is seriously considering making you look very, very foolish for not keeping him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I think that we may start seeing a lot of prognosis of his decline that could push him down draft boards. Probably not next season, but after that he could become a draft day value as a second rounder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcmast Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Even if he declines, I think he has way more value as a keeper than Julio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 (edited) He's got another 4-5 years of big production in front of him Not a chance. He's approaching 2,200 career touches already at age 28. I give him 1 more year of elite production in his age 29 season, and then a sharp drop in his age 30 season when he's around 2,500 touches. Every RB hits the cliff eventually, and history has shown it is usually a fast decline once you get there. Edited November 29, 2013 by nelsosi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's a guessing game with Peterson, but you have to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point. Whereas his production may fall off of a cliff once he does begin his decline (Shaun Alexander comes to mind with how fast it can happen), it just seems really unlikely that it happens next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 He led the NFL in rushing this month. Kind of hard to improve on a 2000 yard season, and anything less would be a decline, would it not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Not a chance. He's approaching 2,200 career touches already at age 28. I give him 1 more year of elite production in his age 29 season, and then a sharp drop in his age 30 season when he's around 2,500 touches. Every RB hits the cliff eventually, and history has shown it is usually a fast decline once you get there. But not every RB comes back from a major season ending injury and rushes for 2k yards. AP is a special breed. Wouldn't suprise me to see him do what Curtis Martin did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 But not every RB comes back from a major season ending injury and rushes for 2k yards. AP is a special breed. Wouldn't suprise me to see him do what Curtis Martin did. Pretty sure he's the same kinda mutant as Wolverine. He's probably been living among us for hundreds of years and he will stop playing football when he gets bored with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 He's approaching 2,200 career touches already at age 28. I give him 1 more year of elite production in his age 29 season, and then a sharp drop in his age 30 season when he's around 2,500 touches. Every RB hits the cliff eventually, and history has shown it is usually a fast decline once you get there. I did some number-crunching on this awhile back, and it really appears that the magic number in the equation isn't the number of touches, but the age of the back - (relatively) low-mileage backs like Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson fell off at age 30(-ish) just like high-use RBs did. As far as Peterson being in decline, I don't see it - you need to realize first of all that '12 was the outlier, the career year; he'll never match that yardage total - that aside, his ypc (4.4) is on the low side for his career but not a drastic falloff from where he's been previously, his yards per game (both rushing and total) are right where he's historically been, and his td-a-game pace this year is also smack in the middle of what he's generally done. Peterson is fine, but if he's a keeper, I'd probably play the odds and try to get a bonanza for him by the start of the 2015 season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 So what are we saying. He has a chance, or doesn't have a chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 So what are we saying. He has a chance, or doesn't have a chance? What I'd say is that Peterson should be fine through next season, after that, you run into issues. People talk about "slow decline" but in reality it's more often like RBs fall off a cliff - "hey, he was maybe a smidge off but still solid last year at age 30" and *BOOM* at age 31, he looks like Trent Richardson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Shaun Alexander is the one I recall really falling off a cliff. The big year in 2012 coming off the injury could be a(nother) sign that AP is a freak of nature and could pass the 30 yr old or some set # of carries. But I think there is a decline by 2015, how big and quick will be the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.