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NFL Coaching Hot Seat


Gopher
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Didn't see a thread on this yet (if I missed it, I apologize). Here is who I see on the hot seat, with two weeks left, in order of the probability that they're canned (in my opinion)....

 

Shanahan (WAS) - As good as gone, IMO. Train wreck. Chances of getting the axe: 95%

 

Frazier (MIN) - I'm hoping he's gone, but as a diehard MIN fan, nothing shocks me anymore. Nice guy, but in way over his head, it seems. Needs to stick to the defensive side of the ball (he's one of those coaches who is the perfect fit as a secondary coach, or maybe even D coordinator, but a HC he is not). Likelihood he's gone: 90%

 

Jason Garrett (DAL) - Barring a playoff win, I find it hard to believe Garrett keeps his job. He's in danger of having another .500 season, and that's simply not good enough in Dallas.

 

Chance that he's fired: 75%

 

Rex Ryan (NYJ) - All in all, it might be accurate to say that the Jets have overachieved, given their lack of talent. After all, up until a week or two ago, they were still arguably in playoff contention. That alone, however, might not be enough for Rex to save his job. Working against him are a few things. First, the Jets have been horribly inconsistent, beating New England and New Orleans at home, yet losing (badly) to the likes of Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Buffalo, and Miami. In those 6 losses, Rex's team was outscored 185-48.... Ouch. And, 13 of those 48 points came in Week 4 (@ Tennessee). So, to say that the offense has been mostly anemic, would be a severe understatement.

 

The other problem Rex has is that he's dealing with new GM (who likely wants a more offense-oriented head coach). Rex has survived seasons of turmoil before, living to see another day, but this factor alone might make this off-season different than the ones prior. My prediction is that the Jets start fresh, and Rex is gone.

 

Fire factor (not hosted by Joe Rogan): 70%

 

Mike Smith (ATL) - If it were just this year's 4-10 record working against him, I would say that last year's 13-3 season (combined with the team's first playoff win under his tenure) would be enough to offset that. However, he's made a bunch of blunderous coaching decisions in the past year, not the least of which took place in the playoff game last year (where it appeared as though he tried to give the game away, basically).

 

Considering this team was considered a SB contender last year, I'm not sure you can blame their regression purely on injuries. The offensive line has been terrible, the running game got worse by adding Jackson (instead of better, which was what everyone expected was a given), and the defense needs fixing (in spots) as well. Add all of that up, and I'm not sure this team is a legitimate contender next year, even if they enter the season 100% healthy. I'm not going to say Smith is gone for sure, but I think he's in serious jeopardy.

 

Chance he's let go: 60%

 

Jim Schwartz (DET) - His antics haven't exactly done him any favors, during his time in Detroit. Schwartz has, at times, been somewhat of an embarassment to the team, and if Detroit's implosion continues (and they manage to miss the playoffs), I think it finally catches up with him. What he has working in his favor is the remaining schedule. Detroit has two very winnable games remaining (NYG, @MIN), while it's very possible that both CHI and GB both lose at least one of their remaining two games. If that happens, Detroit sneaks in, and Schwartz likely buys himself more time. If not, I think he's gone.

 

Canned factor: 55%... This one depends so much on whether or not they make the post-season. I'm saying 90% if they miss, 20% if they get in (split the difference).

 

Coughlin (NYG) - I doubt he gets fired (the Giants are a loyal organization that acts with utmost class, and he's simply done too much for that to happen). However, I could see him retiring (I think he's got one year left on his contract, but the Giants need to clean house to some degree, and a coinciding coaching change would make sense).

 

Likelihood he's gone: 50% (although I'd say the chances of him actually getting fired are closer to 20%).

 

Mike Munchak (TEN) - He seems to have flown under the radar, at least on a national level, in terms of being on this list. Munchak has a couple of things working against him. First and foremost, the team has seemingly regressed during his tenure... after a winning season in 2011, they won just 6 games in 2012. This year, it appears, they will likely win no more than 6, again.

 

Secondly, there are a lot of question marks, in terms of the Titans' marquis players. Jake Locker, who was thought to be the team's future at QB, has been oft-injured, leaving the team (and fans) wondering if they need to look elsewhere for their franchise QB. Meanwhile, it sounds like Chris Johnson is as good as gone. All of that adds up to Munchak being less than likely to keep his job, in my opinion, but I say that without knowing much about the relationship between Munchak and the Tennessee front office/ownership.

 

Probability that he's whacked: 45%

 

Greg Schiano (TB) - Early on, I think most people thought it was a given that he would lose his job, especially after the team started out 0-8. I know a lot of people will disagree with this (having written Schiano off, after the mess that occurred with Josh Freeman), but I really like what I've seen from the Bucs over the last month and a half. They gave Seattle their toughest contest (at home) all year in Week 9, and have won 4 of 6 since then. More importantly, I like the fact that Schiano seems to have the team playing with confidence... They're competing in (nearly) every contest as though they can win, and they've done more winning than losing since October.

 

In the Week 10 Monday Night victory over Miami, Vincent Jackson said it best, when he simply said that Coach Schiano has the team believing in themselves. At that point, they had just (barely) won their first game of the year (in 9 tries), so the comment may have sounded a bit odd to some listeners (admittedly, myself included). But, given what they've done since then, I have to believe that their confidence has grown over the past month. Will that be enough for Schiano to keep his job? I don't know, but the last two weeks might be critical in determining his fate, in one direction or the other. They've got their work cut out for them (@STL, @NO), but if they can at least continue to compete, I like Schiano's chances of being given one more season.

 

Chance he's cut loose: 40% (call me crazy)... I'd actually go lower, but the fact that TB has two tough road games remaining probably works against Schiano here.

Edited by Gopher
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Some excellent analysis being presented in the above statement. I can't see Schiano beign fired the way TB has played the last 6 weeks. Crazy to think they are better off without Doug Martin.

 

Mike Smith and above are all fired in my opinion, Jim Schwartz gets 1 more year for his band of thugs to screw up again.

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These (3) all need to go fore sure & I would be very surprised if either of them are coaching next year

 

Shanaha

Garrett

Fraizer

 

Agreed. If anybody hires any of those three as HC's next year, they themselves should be fired. :lol:

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I think that Chip Kelly will be the NFC East coach with the longest tenure as of February.

 

I think you might be right, although I stand by my thought that Coughlin will be much more likely to resign than get fired. I honestly was second-guessing whether 50/50 was too conservative of an estimate. If I had to say yes or no, as to whether he'll be gone, I'm leaning towards yes. He's the oldest NFL head coach (by far, I believe), and considering how this year played out, it just makes sense.

 

Hopefully, if it comes down to it, he just walks away amicably, as opposed to getting canned.

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If I had to guess, I'd say all of the above are gone, except Schiano and (somehow) Schwartz.

 

Munchak is probably the one I am least sure about... I really have no feel for his relationship with the GM/owner in Tennessee, so my thoughts are mostly speculation (based on what I've read in various places).

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I think Garrett's safe for another yr. In fact, I'd be surprised if any changes are made on either side of the ball in Dallas.

 

Jerry thinks they're close...

 

Close to what... Making the playoffs?

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I think Garrett's safe for another yr. In fact, I'd be surprised if any changes are made on either side of the ball in Dallas.

 

Jerry thinks they're close...

 

 

take the poll http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/dallas-cowboys/headlines/20131218-should-the-cowboys-fire-head-coach-jason-garrett.ece

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I think it could be argued the Cowboys have already done something this year. A few times, actually.

 

 

 

And Frazier definitely needs to go. As Goph said...he's in way over his head as HC. Get rid of both coordinators and Spielman, too. If they start getting their honda together now, they might be relevant by the time the new stadium opens.

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