Random dynasty related thoughts

[Riffraff]

The dynasty rankings topic had my mind thinking of random things...

 

My random thoughts when discussing dynasty:

 

1. You can only win a title in the year you are playing, don't sacrifice a real Championship shot for random luck possibilities of future championships. Too many variables to guarantee future success.

2. Old players get old because they are good. Young hopefuls that don't pan out, don't get old in football years.

3. Just because you have "some" old studs does not mean you cannot back them up with young hopefuls. The entire roster doesn't to need to be fully old or fully youthful. The best rosters mix in all ages.

4. A fantasy season boils down to getting a good enough record to get into the play-offs. Then it becomes a 3 week season. Can you compete in that 3 week season? If not, rebuild. If so, go for the gold.

5. Shiny toy rosters rarely win championships. Looks cool to have all those 1st and 2nd year players. Need vets to balance it out though.

6. Don't always have to "win" trades. Do try to get the player you want. Overpay -a little- if you must. Don't be scared to "lose" a trade.

7. Some people like to sell a year too early (costing them points/wins) rather than a year late (costing them trade value). What's more important in the current year? Trade value or wins? See #4 to determine if you should rebuild or go for it.

8. When deciding between 2 equal valued players, choose the younger one. Awesome tie-breaker.

9. Never seen a complete fire-sale work. Usually just ensures the team sucks for multiple years. Have seen mediocre teams turn into contenders with just 1 studly addition.

10. Having a "stud for the next 10 years" is usually a fallacy. Most NFL careers are not that long. Injuries happen. Players change teams. Teammates change. Coaches change. Systems change. Off the field issues happen. 10 years is a long time in the NFL.

11. Things change quickly. Look back at your own league's draft from 3-5 years ago. How many of the 1st or 2nd round players are still playing at a high level? How many are still in the league?

12. Don't intentionally be the loser. Tanking is just bad for the league. The top pick isn't always the best player. Again look at your past drafts, how many 1.01 guys are truly can't miss studs?

13. Draft picks can be the cheapest you'll ever get a player. In that regards, picks can be pretty valuable.

14. The time to buy draft picks is during the season when teams still think they can compete.

15. The time to sell draft picks is close to the NFL draft, or on the clock during your draft. Maximize the trade power.

16. Owners will overpay for rookie picks, you can gain some startable players with draft picks.

17. The best way to gauge -true- rookie pick value is to look at start-up drafts that include rookie picks in the selection process. You'll soon find out those 2nd round rookies just might not even get drafted in a start-up.

18. Not all rookies will be studs. Nor will they all land in ideal situations.

19. Be aware that you over-value the guys on your team. And so do all the other owners with their guys.

20. Draft for talent. Trade for needs.

21. Potential versus production. Which side do you go for? Neither is wrong. A mixture is best. Back up the producers with hopefuls.

22. Try to anticipate rising and losing values. Which players may get more opportunity with their teams. Coaching changes mean opportunity changes. Free agency means opportunity changes. Being on the IR means opportunity changes.

23. IR players can be had at a discount. Could be a lower cost gamble that's worth taking. Or the player may never be completely back. Who knows?

24. Gambler vs risk aversion. You want a few risky players, but not a roster majority of them.

 

I can go on and on. So much more can be said.

 

Oh, yeah... Nobody remembers second place.... let alone the other losers. Win!

 

You don't have to agree with mine. What are your dynasty related random thoughts?

[Zooty]

1,3,6,9,19,20

Good stuff

 

2nd place is just the first loser....LOL

[irish]

The dynasty rankings topic had my mind thinking of random things...

 

My random thoughts when discussing dynasty:

 

19. Be aware that you over-value the guys on your team. And so do all the other owners with their guys.

 

 

No, my guys are amazing and their guys do suck but I may just want one of them in a trade any way.

[whomper]

I love # 6 the most. So very true

[Orange Crazed]

Very good points thanks for the input

[darin3]

I love # 6 the most. So very true

 

 

Anyone in a league with you knows you do.

[QFFL]

Very nice post, great reading for those into Dynasty leagues.

 

The only one I have some reservations is point No. 7. To keep a competitive team every year, you have to think about the future, old stars fade really fast especially their trading value. What you don't want is to rebuilt unless you absolutely have to.

 

Since no one cannot predict the future, you'd better off trade those aging stars one or even 2 years earlier to get the best return. The one trade I was always bragging about was trade Westbrook for Jonathan Stewart. Those kind of trades enable your team to compete every year instead of a total rebuilt.

Edited April 15, 2014 by QFFL

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

# 1 rule in Dynasty for myself involving trades of player or picks is

 

Quality over quantity ( depth can always be acquired thru the wire )

[Brentastic]

Great post, Riffraff!

[tazinib1]

interesting you excluded the Taxi Squad in regards to draft picks.

 

Great list though...good read.

[Henry Muto]

Patience is a virtue.

 

I drafted Charles in 2008 and sat on him for a year and a half then I finally traded him the day before he become a starter and the rest is sad history for me.

 

I sat on Julius Thomas for 2 years finally gave up and traded him.

 

I cut Z-Stacy the week before he became a starter in my FFPC dynasty (20 man roster limit) and I have been sick about it ever since.

Edited April 16, 2014 by Henry Muto

[Delicious_bass]

The dynasty rankings topic had my mind thinking of random things...

 

My random thoughts when discussing dynasty:

 

1. You can only win a title in the year you are playing, don't sacrifice a real Championship shot for random luck possibilities of future championships. Too many variables to guarantee future success.

2. Old players get old because they are good. Young hopefuls that don't pan out, don't get old in football years.

3. Just because you have "some" old studs does not mean you cannot back them up with young hopefuls. The entire roster doesn't to need to be fully old or fully youthful. The best rosters mix in all ages.

4. A fantasy season boils down to getting a good enough record to get into the play-offs. Then it becomes a 3 week season. Can you compete in that 3 week season? If not, rebuild. If so, go for the gold.

5. Shiny toy rosters rarely win championships. Looks cool to have all those 1st and 2nd year players. Need vets to balance it out though.

6. Don't always have to "win" trades. Do try to get the player you want. Overpay -a little- if you must. Don't be scared to "lose" a trade.

7. Some people like to sell a year too early (costing them points/wins) rather than a year late (costing them trade value). What's more important in the current year? Trade value or wins? See #4 to determine if you should rebuild or go for it.

8. When deciding between 2 equal valued players, choose the younger one. Awesome tie-breaker.

9. Never seen a complete fire-sale work. Usually just ensures the team sucks for multiple years. Have seen mediocre teams turn into contenders with just 1 studly addition.

10. Having a "stud for the next 10 years" is usually a fallacy. Most NFL careers are not that long. Injuries happen. Players change teams. Teammates change. Coaches change. Systems change. Off the field issues happen. 10 years is a long time in the NFL.

11. Things change quickly. Look back at your own league's draft from 3-5 years ago. How many of the 1st or 2nd round players are still playing at a high level? How many are still in the league?

12. Don't intentionally be the loser. Tanking is just bad for the league. The top pick isn't always the best player. Again look at your past drafts, how many 1.01 guys are truly can't miss studs?

13. Draft picks can be the cheapest you'll ever get a player. In that regards, picks can be pretty valuable.

14. The time to buy draft picks is during the season when teams still think they can compete.

15. The time to sell draft picks is close to the NFL draft, or on the clock during your draft. Maximize the trade power.

16. Owners will overpay for rookie picks, you can gain some startable players with draft picks.

17. The best way to gauge -true- rookie pick value is to look at start-up drafts that include rookie picks in the selection process. You'll soon find out those 2nd round rookies just might not even get drafted in a start-up.

18. Not all rookies will be studs. Nor will they all land in ideal situations.

19. Be aware that you over-value the guys on your team. And so do all the other owners with their guys.

20. Draft for talent. Trade for needs.

21. Potential versus production. Which side do you go for? Neither is wrong. A mixture is best. Back up the producers with hopefuls.

22. Try to anticipate rising and losing values. Which players may get more opportunity with their teams. Coaching changes mean opportunity changes. Free agency means opportunity changes. Being on the IR means opportunity changes.

23. IR players can be had at a discount. Could be a lower cost gamble that's worth taking. Or the player may never be completely back. Who knows?

24. Gambler vs risk aversion. You want a few risky players, but not a roster majority of them.

 

I can go on and on. So much more can be said.

 

Oh, yeah... Nobody remembers second place.... let alone the other losers. Win!

 

You don't have to agree with mine. What are your dynasty related random thoughts?

 

Good topic and I agree with much of the above. One of the biggest mistakes I see people make in the dynasty league I am in is putting too high a value on youth and (seemingly) always playing for the future. Also, as others have mentioned, patience is hugh.

[Henry Muto]

I seen a total rebuild work once. The guy in my CFL league was horrible from 1997-2009 he got 1 playoff win in 13 years going 67-114 in the regular season and 1-6 in the playoffs. Then he tore his entire team down got 8 1st round picks for the 2009 draft and from 2010-2013 he went 31-21 in the regular season and 2-3 in the playoffs and has a really nice team right now still able to compete for a title.

[NAUgrad]

Patience is a virtue.

 

I drafted Charles in 2008 and sat on him for a year and a half then I finally traded him the day before he become a starter and the rest is sad history for me.

 

I sat on Julius Thomas for 2 years finally gave up and traded him.

 

I cut Z-Stacy the week before he became a starter in my FFPC dynasty (20 man roster limit) and I have been sick about it ever since.

 

sooo, ummm who are you dropping this year?

[keggerz]

# 1 rule in Dynasty for myself involving trades of player or picks is

 

Quality over quantity ( depth can always be acquired thru the wire )

 

Not always: http://football7.myfantasyleague.com/2014/top?L=33229&SEARCHTYPE=BASIC&COUNT=500&YEAR=2013&START_WEEK=1&END_WEEK=17&CATEGORY=freeagent&POSITION=*&DISPLAY=points&TEAM=* but I still agree with quality over quantity.

[Henry Muto]

I actually seen a pretty much a total rebuild steal a title away from me last year with my best dynasty team. Going into the season most in my league felt there was a good chance my team would go undefeated and between 2 year stretch I won 19 straight games at 1 point but this other owner who entered the season as basically a 50/50 shot just to make the playoffs built upon trades he made in 2012 when he seen he wasn't going anyway selling off his older players Brady, Welker, Gore and rebuilt and with some smooth trades where other owners made huge mistakes over paying for older vets to try and win it in 2012 he built a team that now rivals mine in talent.

 

Just a few basic trades turned a kitty into a lion.

 

2012 he traded Gore for Josh Gordon and a future 1st round pick

2012 he traded Brady for Cutler, 4 2nd round picks for the 2012 draft and a future 1st round pick

He then stuck gold on Jeffery and Lamar Miller in the 2nd round with 2 of those 4 picks.

Not that Lamar Miller was any good but he stuck gold on his over hyped value before the start of last year and sold Miller for 2 future 1st and 3 future 2nds (with 1 of those future 1st obviously going to be the 1.01 this year after 4 weeks in)

He then traded those 2 future 1st and 3 future 2nd he got for Miller in 2 separate trades for Romo, Foster, Tony Gonzalez, Des-Jackson, Vincent Jackson.