Drafting strategy

[rush00756]

I play in a 10 team ppr league. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR and 2 Flex (RB/WR) 1 TE. I've been reading about drafting WR's, if you fall mid to late in the order, it's a snake draft. Or even Jimmy Graham going 1st round this year. Since I only have to play 1 RB and let's say I can't get McCoy or JC in the first, this format setting looks good to go after 5 rounds have 1 TE and 4 WR's. This is close to the Zero RB theory.

 

Last year in this league alone, if you looked at the top 20 scorers, non QB's, (RB/WR/TE) only 5 were RB's.

 

I've always tried to get two WR's after three rounds in this league and even though i have never won the league, (finished 2nd 3 times) I have either finished 1st or 2nd in scoring the last five years. So I am picking players who score a lot of points. So with that being said, wouldn't it make more since to load up on wr's and Graham early and use later rounds for a QB and RB's.

 

We also use FAAB for our waiver wire, so I will have money to spend, if I need to go after my one starting rb.

 

Do you guys think this is a good theory? Thanks in advance for the advice.

[Zooty]

yes, it can work. The hard part is identifying which RBs are the ones to grab in rounds 4-7. Pretty hit or miss there so I personally would rather lock up one if the 1st round if there is one to grab. Otherwise, go for it

[rush00756]

Thanks. I think all you need is one rb to hit and being able to mine the ww with blind bidding, this could work if i get stuck in the middle or the back of the draft.

[Zooty]

Thanks. I think all you need is one rb to hit and being able to mine the ww with blind bidding, this could work if i get stuck in the middle or the back of the draft.

 

 

I guess. RBs are hard to come by but if you only need 1 in a 10 team league you'll probably be OK. That's assuming there is greater depth at WR than RB considering average points per week and/or you're well above average at WR 1,2 and TE

[Gopher]

To me, it's all about value. I rarely go into any draft knowing what position I'm picking with my first pick (unless I've got the top pick, or maybe top 2-3), much less the first few rounds. In other words, I usually take the best player available in the first several rounds, then start worrying about filling open positions (and bench depth).

 

I've seen people win a league with a RB as the #1 overall pick, and other years, a team wins the same league with no RB's taken in the first 4-5 rounds. Here's a good example of winning without drafting a RB early... This is a PPR BOTH league, and the RB's I drafted (round in parentheses):

 

2012

Jonathan Stewart (6)

David Wilson (8)

C.J. Spiller (9)

Ronnie Hillman (13)

Robert Turbin (18)

 

Spiller was the 7th highest RB in scoring. My next highest RB was Powell (#40 RB overall). So, although I got a bit lucky with Spiller, it also paid off that I played off of the scoring/lineup parameters of the league. We start 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, and 1-3 TE. I drafted Jimmy Graham in the 1st round, and Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, and Eric Decker in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th. Those four players averaged 265 points, and were the #1, 9, 13, and 17 scorers in the league (QB's not included). Add in a top-5 QB (I took Matt Ryan in the 3rd), and it was a recipe for success (albeit a somewhat unconventional one). So, although it's easy to say that I got lucky with Spiller (#7 RB) in the 9th round, that's pretty much what I was betting on... Drafting a bunch of RB's in the mid/late rounds, and hoping that 1 or 2 of them panned out to being at least startable. Spiller just ended up being better than that.

 

2013

Daryl Richardson (7)

Andre Brown (9)

Bilal Powell (13)

Joique Bell (15)

Zach Stacy (18)

 

Similar situation last year... Drafted Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White (ouch), Tony Gonzalez, Tom Brady, and Cecil Shorts in the first 6 rounds. My top RB drafted was barely in the top 75 RB's in scoring. Obviously, drafting Bell and Stacy in rounds 15 and 18 helped... They ended up #15 and #20 in RB scoring. Still, I'd argue that it's not like my draft was all luck... Three of my top six picks were relative disappointments (White, Brady, and Shorts). But, the strategy was similar to the year before... Load up on stud WR's, grab a solid QB and a TE or two, and stock up on RB fliers in the mid/late rounds. Just like with Spiller in 2012, I got lucky again (but this time twice, with Bell and Stacy).

 

That said, I didn't go into either of those drafts with the strategy of not taking a RB early. It was all about value, and taking the best players available. Granted, after the success in 2012, I had that in the back of my mind last year. But, I didn't know for sure, which direction I would go, until my pick was on the clock.

 

Here are links to the drafts:

 

2012: http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2012/options?L=53117&O=17

2013: http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=45566&O=17

[NAUgrad]

Completely agree. I've always been a RB whore and it has usually paid off. But because of the way QB's score now it's dumb to go into a draft and just say I'm getting a RB no matter what. So last year I drafted Rodgers first and picked up Big Ben after Rodgers got injured. Of course I still had my share of RB's, but that QB tandem took me to the championship.

[Gopher]

I should add that, not only did I not go into the draft with that strategy, I didn't even necessarily go into any particular ROUND with that strategy. In other words, just because I drafted Calvin Johnson in the 1st round, doesn't mean that I decided to scrap the RB position until the 7th round. I weighed all of my options in Rounds 2-6, and in each case, felt that there was something better (than a RB) available. Had there been a RB available (that I liked) in those rounds, I most certainly would have taken one (or several). But, in every round, I felt like I would be somewhat reaching to take the best RB available, when there was a better player on the board (that I could feasibly still fit in my starting lineup).

 

And, it's also important to note that this obviously isn't a failsafe strategy. Regardless of who you draft, there is a lot of luck that goes into fantasy football, and I certainly had my share both years. Not only in the sense that I hit on a RB or two each year (that I drafted relatively late), but also in some of my waivers acquisitions (I added Foles, Boykin, and Terrence Williams last year through the WW, which helped make up for Brady, Roddy, and Shorts). Not to mention, you always have to have a bit of luck to win in the fantasy playoffs, and both years, the matchups worked out in my favor. I also drafted Julius Thomas late (part of my strategy was to load up on TE's, since the PPR scoring was tiered in favor of the TE position).

 

So, it's not always going to work out, but it helps to keep an open mind when drafting (keep multiple options on the table, at all times). That also helps when a player you are targeting gets snagged right in front of you.

[Gopher]

One other thing... Fantasy football has obviously evolved. It made a lot more sense to be a RB whore 15 years ago, than it does now. I won my local (about 15 years ago) drafting Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, and Williams Green in the first three rounds (all RB's for you young bucks)... in a league where I could only start two of them. Now, I'd be more inclined to do the opposite... Draft 5 WR's in the first 6-7 rounds (in a league where I can only start 4), and worry about RB and/or QB later.

 

Just as in many other facets of life, those who are able to adapt to change (in terms of FF) are usually able to sustain long-term success better than those who stick with the same gameplan for 15-20 years.

 

Edit: I should probably mention that the league where I won with a draft start of LT/FT/Green is a non-PPR league. That league still exists today, and it's the biggest bunch of RB whores I've ever seen, in any one league. And, it's still very hard to win that league if you don't have two good (or at least one VERY good) RB. I've won that league three times (since the late 90's), and every time, I had a pair of stud RB's (or at least one stud, and a couple of very serviceable options that I could play matchups with).

 

So, being aware of your league scoring/lineup requirements is also very important, obviously. I probably wouldn't draft 5 WR's early in a non-PPR league.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Gopher

[NAUgrad]

Also, it's good to know your opponents. Example: In one league last year i knew there were some people that were very football savvy and some that had no clue. Based on that, there were times I knew I could wait on a player and position and watch others take different positions I didn't value at that time. I still default to RB's sometimes...just can't help it. But WR's and QB's are much more important than ever.

[buddahj]

I try to not get as drunk as the other guys.

[chiroacademy]

I studied for hours last year. Decided to focus on RBs early but had to see what dropped to me. This strategy worked great years prior. Waited till late on a QB. The strategy was sound but my draft sucked. 3 out of my first 4 picks were busts! I only drafted 4 consistent players in my entire draft, one being a kicker. J. Charles, R Bush, L MIller were my best drafted players! I turned over all of my WRs with the WW. Ouch! I started 1-4 but worked the WW like crazy and ended 8-5 in a 12 team league with the 2nd best record and finished 2nd in the playoffs

 

I tend to focus on RBs but if you draft late in a snake and it's down to 2nd tier RBs it's better to go WR, WR and get 2 stud WRs.

 

 

The team that won our league forgot about the draft and the computer auto picked for him. He dominated. Didn't take a RB till the 7th round and 9th round! Wr, Wr, TE, QB, WR, WR We all laughed at him after the draft. We didn't laugh long.

 

This year I'm going to focus on the player with the greatest possible impact available regardless of position. If I don't get a RB till late so be it.

[Dolphin_Akie]

Sorry to jump in.

 

I play in a 12 team league and Im drafting at #9 next month in a snake draft (draft position being determined by your finishing position the previous year in reverse order). Looks like all the top RB's would be gone by the time I pick and then when I pick again #16 there won't be great value so I pondered ignoring RBs until R4 unless someone falls to me?

 

In which case go something like Calvin Johnson R1, AJ Green/Julio Jones R2 and Drew Brees R3 then address the RB position knowing that I've got three elite guys elsewhere and if I pick whichever RB is left at #9 they could be a bust anyways.

[bwebs13]

all about value if the top 6 rbs are not avail i am going with either peyton, calvin, or jimmy. so if all the 6 rbs are gone when i am picking in the middle to late slots i like to get the best qb/wr/t(wr). i really like getting jimmy as having him in the TE slot as basically a top 5 pass catcher is just so nice to have. now in your league its a bit different with the positions but still i think jimmy is a top 5 wr.

 

there is some rb value later in the 3-6 rnds and even later, someone like lamar miller would be a good pick in the later rounds, as i think knowshon is not going to work out well and miller will be a lot better with a year of experience and a better o line and coordinator.

 

i have done mocks in the past couple years as well taking a WR or TE (grahm or gronk) in rnds 1-3 and still gotten a pretty solid RBs.

[Metalhead316]

Many interesting posts in here as some of you are the first guys I've come across that don't believe RB in the first is the only key to success. I definitely know the strat, know that it can be good but I feel some years there are exceptions.

 

So with that said my big dilemma is I've the second pick in a 10 man league, its 6pt TDs with bonus points for various yardage settings, plus bonus for 40+ TDs whether passing, running etc...

 

I feel after last years embarrassment Manning has yet again something to prove, so I just want him. Is it an understandable pick? Is it a good pick even hoping for something similar to last year? I don't expect duplicate numbers, but the man put up 580 points in my league, even 490-500 I feel is doable.

 

What about Megatron or graham for the 2nd pick?

 

As I said for me I realize the RB strategy, however I've always been a good WW hunter, I've enjoyed Murray, moreno, Stacey and many more over the years when they broke out. I feel I can build throughout the year.

 

Just lookin for some thoughts, talked to some guys and they are just dead set on rbs, so its like there is "no" other way.

 

Would love to hear some thoughts.

[osu1322]

The only problem i have with the drafting WRs really high is there are so many talented rookies coming in this year. Wakins, Evans, and Cooks look like they will make an impact right away. They bonus is they will cost next to nothing to draft.

 

If you compare that to the rookie RBs, well lets just say Bishop Shanky isn't going to be draft for his elite skills.

[Dolphin_Akie]

The only problem i have with the drafting WRs really high is there are so many talented rookies coming in this year. Wakins, Evans, and Cooks look like they will make an impact right away. They bonus is they will cost next to nothing to draft.

 

If you compare that to the rookie RBs, well lets just say Bishop Shanky isn't going to be draft for his elite skills.

 

 

WR has easily the best depth in this draft so for me drafting Megatron at #2 is a bit high. I'm drafting #9 in my main league and I'm basically pondering which RBs I would take over him if they were still there, not to say Megatron is a bad pick at #2 but just seems to be bad value for me.

 

As for the rookies, so many good players came in this year but I wouldn't draft any of them in the opening 8 rounds or so in a ten teamer.