Where do you prefer to take your starting QB?

[DMD]

This is one of the most interesting questions of your draft because you know you go hard and heavy on RB and WR early on. You might get Jimmy Graham super early but 11 others in the league are just going to wait this year. But QB is an area where you might get a starter in the first round or wait to be the 12th team to grab a starter. Assume an average league with 1/20 pass yardage and 4 pt pass TDs. 1/10 rush and 6 pt rush TDs.

 

For reference, here is the current ADP of the top 12 QBs

 

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Peyton Manning

3. Drew Brees

4. Andrew Luck

5. Matthew Stafford

6. Cam Newton

7. Nick Foles

8. Matt Ryan

9. Robert Griffin III

10. Colin Kaepernick

11. Russell Wilson

12. Tom Brady

 

The NFL is a pass happy league and top passers always score a lot of points. Can you win with no advantage at QB?

[BA Baracus]

I just got Rodgers in the mid 3rd in an MFL10. That sort of value is hard to pass up.

[stethant]

I agree with the value argument - thing is the top QBs always go sooner than I'm willing to take them. I usually end up with a QB in the later rounds or at least after rounds 5-6. Yes it creates in-season headaches but the extra WR or RB I pick up in leagues with larger starting roster requirements (for example 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1flex) seem to come in handy before all is said and done.

[darin3]

I voted for the second option, although I do see plenty of merit in the final option. I do like having a plug-and-play "almost stud" type of QB.

 

Definitely won't overpay but have a loose plan to grab one (hopefully top 8ish) when it feels right.

[irish]

I picked the last option as I honestly think it's the only way to go. You should never make a definitive plan going into the draft and be so rigid. I take each pick as it comes and never reach on as QB.

[millworkguy]

The last two years my local has been won by the same guy who both years took 4 qb's in a row, from rounds 11-15, then dropped the lesser two after the first few weeks, got rivers last year in the 12th, I used to always plan for drafting one in rounds 6-8, I may wait this year and try the same thing.

[BA Baracus]

I voted on the last option. I tend to wait but where I take one is 100% based on the value at the pick.

[flemingd]

BPA. I'll take a top 3 QB in the mid 2 or later or a tier 2 in the 4/5 if that's how the chips fall.

 

McCoy, Charles, Lynch, AP, Forte, Lacy, Bell, Ball

Calvin, Thomas, Green, Bryant, Marshall, Cobb, Brown,

Graham

 

That's right about where QB comes into play for me.

[keggerz]

Let me think about this.

[Seahawks21]

I avoid the 2nd tier. I like to nab one of the top arms, but I never take one in the first round. If one of the top guys are there in the 2nd or early third, I'm all over it. I am supremely confident in my ability to outdraft my peers at the RB and WR positions, and find some diamonds deeper in the draft. Give me a stud QB and a #1 RB, and I'll piece together the rest of a roster and get to the playoffs. It seems to me that the top QB's annually make their fantasy playoffs.

 

If I don't land one of the top guys, I stack the rest of my roster, and take two high upside QB's around the 7th/8th or something like that. Young guys that I think will break out, or guys that have maybe been average in the past but find themselves now in great situations. One of the two hopefully stud out.

 

I hate working with a deficit at the QB position. If your opponent has a QB that is going to put up 300 and 3 TD's, and yours probably isn't, you might not have a chance that week. I hate that feeling.

Edited June 1, 2014 by Seahawks21

[keggerz]

 

 

I hate working with a deficit at the QB position. If your opponent has a QB that is going to put up 300 and 3 TD's, and yours probably isn't, you might not have a chance that week. I hate that feeling.

 

if you haven't read this, you should http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

[Seahawks21]

I've read the article, and in a vacuum you may be right. For me, that hasn't been the case at all. For giggles, I went back over my last five years to test the theory. My data is a bit skewed because until 2010, one of my leagues was a keeper so the playing field isn't even. But in large part, when I've had a top QB, I've done well, and when I didn't have one, I didn't. This past year is the biggest exception, but McCown played like a top QB for me for a good stretch, and I pulled some FA signings out of my rear to save my season. I was 1-4 before I got good QB play, and it turned my season around.

 

2009--Peyton Manning--lost in finals

2009--Peyton Manning--lost in 2nd round

2010--Peyton Manning--lost in finals

2010--Ryan/Roethlisberger--No playoffs

2011--Cutler/Freeman--No playoffs

2011--Rodgers--Championship

2012--Luck/RGIII--Lost in 1st round

2013--Cutler/McCown/RGIII--Championship

[keggerz]

I've read the article, and in a vacuum you may be right. For me, that hasn't been the case at all. For giggles, I went back over my last five years to test the theory. My data is a bit skewed because until 2010, one of my leagues was a keeper so the playing field isn't even. But in large part, when I've had a top QB, I've done well, and when I didn't have one, I didn't. This past year is the biggest exception, but McCown played like a top QB for me for a good stretch, and I pulled some FA signings out of my rear to save my season. I was 1-4 before I got good QB play, and it turned my season around.

 

2009--Peyton Manning--lost in finals

2009--Peyton Manning--lost in 2nd round

2010--Peyton Manning--lost in finals

2010--Ryan/Roethlisberger--No playoffs

2011--Cutler/Freeman--No playoffs

2011--Rodgers--Championship

2012--Luck/RGIII--Lost in 1st round

2013--Cutler/McCown/RGIII--Championship

what happened in 12 & 13 in the other league?

[CowboysDiehard]

I voted the final option. Several times I have waited knowing that the other drafters had QBs, and needed to fill other positions, only to see a solid starter (in top 12) go to other teams as a second QB--sometimes before that owner even has a RB or WR on their roster...I'm talking 4th round here.

 

Two of my three leagues are QB heavy scoring, and if this happens, the season can end on draft night. Never fun to try to navigate a season platooning two Tier 3 qbs.

 

I typically won't go early for one, but I won't wait as long as I used to.

[Big Country]

I chose the last option, and as most know, I am generally a proponent of waiting on a QB in most situations, but I am a bigger proponent of paying attention to what is happening in the draft and adjusting as needed.

 

There are times where I may take a QB in the 2nd/3rd round, and there have been times where I waited until the 10th/11th round, and I have had success with both strategies (and failures with both strategies).

 

Beyond scoring system, one must factor in league size, starting lineup requirements, owner tendencies and draft position when evaluating the decision. To have a cookie cutter one-size-fits-all strategy is a strategy doomed for failure over the long run.

[Seahawks21]

what happened in 12 & 13 in the other league?

 

I quit the keeper league in 2010 and played in 2 redraft leagues in 2011 before I realized I didn't care enough to stay on top of two rosters.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Seahawks21

[NAUgrad]

I voted the final option as well. I've always been a hugh RB whore, but last year changed everything. At the 10th spot in a 12 team redraft, Rodgers was starring me in the face. However, the only reason I went with him was because there was still RB depth to be had. So I grabbed Rogers and in the 2nd grabbed J. Charles in the early 2nd. These two led me to a championship and I firmly believe it was in large part due to grabbing a QB early but at the right value.

[flemingd]

I voted the final option as well. I've always been a hugh RB whore, but last year changed everything. At the 10th spot in a 12 team redraft, Rodgers was starring me in the face. However, the only reason I went with him was because there was still RB depth to be had. So I grabbed Rogers and in the 2nd grabbed J. Charles in the early 2nd. These two led me to a championship and I firmly believe it was in large part due to grabbing a QB early but at the right value.

 

 

A - 11 other owners should be smacked for letting Charles get to you in the 2nd.

B - You should be smacked for not taking Charles at 1.10

[irish]

 

 

A - 11 other owners should be smacked for letting Charles get to you in the 2nd.

B - You should be smacked for not taking Charles at 1.10

 

 

Completely agree! How the hell did that happen!?!

[lennykravitz2004]

Where do I prefer to take my starting QB?

 

 

TGI Fridays, then a movie. Who knows where THAT might lead...

 

Last option of value is my selection too, at least in my 10 team redraft.

 

Romo and some Schlomo fill-in (I'd have to go back and look) took me to the title last year. Went J Charles @ 1.3, CJ0K in 2nd, then Graham in third. I selected Romo in round 7.

[keggerz]

Food for thought:

2013: 4 of top 12 were drafted outside the top 12 & 3 of top 7 drafted outside of top 7

2012: 3 of top 12 were drafted outside of the top 12 & 2 of top 7 drafted outside of top 7

2011: 4 of top 12 were drafted outside of the top 12 & 4 of top 7 drafted outside of top 7

[darin3]

Food for thought:

2013: 4 of top 12 were drafted outside the top 12 & 3 of top 7 drafted outside of top 7

2012: 3 of top 12 were drafted outside of the top 12 & 2 of top 7 drafted outside of top 7

2011: 4 of top 12 were drafted outside of the top 12 & 4 of top 7 drafted outside of top 7

 

 

 

So then you're saying....

 

2013: 8 of top 12 (67%) were drafted inside the top 12 & 4 of top 7 (57%) drafted inside of top 7

2012: 9 of top 12 (75%) were drafted inside of the top 12 & 5 of top 7 (71%) drafted inside of top 7

2011: 8 of top 12 (67%) were drafted inside of the top 12 & 3 of top 7 (43%) drafted inside of top 7

 

Probably not the stats you want to post to prove some "theory". There are relative busts at every position. What you just posted proves that. Not sure how them being QBs changes anything.

 

I agree with many that say waiting on QB is wise. But to ignore value that's fallen - regardless of position - is simply an unsound process.

[Big Country]

I crunched some numbers to throw out there.

Granted, I am limited on time, so right now I am only doing this for 2013. The performance data is based on the Huddle PPR scoring system, which can be viewed by going to the Stats section here at the huddle. For simplicity reasons, I stuck with overall points scored rather than going with a PPG method and arbitrarily determining a cutoff for games played. ADP data for 2013 is from MFL – I only made one adjustment to their default settings, and that was to set this to PPR scoring systems – so the ADP data is for all PPR based redraft leagues.

Apologies in advance if the tables look like crap – I’ve never been good at getting them to line up well in a post

 

 

Top 12 QB Performers

Rank PLAYER NFL FPTS FPTS/G ADP Rank ADP

1 Peyton Manning DEN 497 31.05 3 32.79

2 Drew Brees NO 437 27.33 2 20.12

3 Andy Dalton CIN 377 23.57 14 115.33

4 Matthew Stafford DET 367 22.96 8 60.32

5 Cam Newton CAR 359 22.47 4 40.18

6 Philip Rivers SD 359 22.44 24 159.47

7 Andrew Luck IND 345 21.55 9 61.76

8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 341 21.31 16 128.81

9 Matt Ryan ATL 335 20.95 6 48.12

10 Russell Wilson SEA 332 20.73 11 71.26

11 Ryan Tannehill MIA 321 20.09 23 157.76

12 Colin Kaepernick SF 320 20.02 7 54.44

Top 12 RB Performers

 

Rank PLAYER NFL FPTS FPTS/G ADP Rank ADP

1 Jamaal Charles KC 382 25.47 4 6.78

2 Matt Forte CHI 339 21.21 10 16.19

3 LeSean McCoy PHI 333 20.79 8 9.72

4 Knowshon Moreno DEN 297 18.54 52 162.02

5 Marshawn Lynch SEA 277 17.33 9 10.61

6 DeMarco Murray DAL 260 18.58 18 35.53

7 Reggie Bush DET 247 17.66 14 27.64

8 Eddie Lacy GB 245 16.3 23 54.82

9 Chris Johnson TEN 244 15.26 12 22.73

10 Adrian Peterson MIN 239 17.05 1 1.74

11 Fred Jackson BUF 235 14.67 44 134.51

12 Danny Woodhead SD 227 14.21 43 132.07

Top 12 WR Performers

Rank PLAYER NFL FPTS FPTS/G ADP Rank ADP

1 Demaryius Thomas DEN 319 19.94 6 22.49

2 Josh Gordon CLE 314 22.46 34 89.46

3 Antonio Brown PIT 308 19.27 22 60.01

4 A.J. Green CIN 307 19.16 2 14.59

5 Calvin Johnson DET 305 21.8 1 6.37

6 Brandon Marshall CHI 302 18.84 4 18.37

7 Dez Bryant DAL 294 18.4 3 15.29

8 Alshon Jeffery CHI 284 17.73 50 124.92

9 Eric Decker DEN 282 17.61 23 60.13

10 Andre Johnson HOU 280 17.48 8 29.3

11 Pierre Garcon WAS 280 17.47 20 58.14

12 DeSean Jackson PHI 269 16.84 26 73.29

 

Measure QB RB WR

Top 12 Outside Top 12 33% 50% 50%

Top 6 Outside of Top 6 50% 83% 33%

 

Now, one of the first thing that pops out to me is that a top 12 comparison is not exactly valid, as there are different numbers of starter's required, and I think a more valid comparison would be to look at players projected to be a fantasy starter vs. producing as a fantasy starter. Again, given limited time, I didn't have time to go and recrunch for the top 24 RBs, 24 or 36 WRs etc.

 

What I am seeing, at least based on 2013 data (obviously need more data points to make any possible conclusions) is that RB is the most volatile position, but still very difficult to find the diamond in the rough that explodes onto the scene (Moreno, FJax and Woodhead last year were the 3 low ranked guys (outside top 24) that jumped up, but for those 3, there were 20+ misses drafted earlier), WR is fairly consistent with only 3 guys outside the top 24 performing in the top 12 With Alshon Jeffrey the only one outside the top 36, and QB was pretty much in line with ADP, especially if you include the fact that two of the Qbs than finished 13-15 were in the top 12 ADP and performed less than 1 PPG less than Kap - which means that 10 of the top 12 ADP QBs finished in the top 15 for performance - the only outliers were Aaron Rodgers who was injured (but was performing as the #4 QB PPG wise) and RG3 (#12 QB PPG wise but missed 3 games)

 

Now, taking a leap here and working on the assumption that this data is normal for a given year, some fun discussion can ensue:

 

 

QB - ADP data is fairly accurate in identifying the top 12-15 QBs. In addition, the PPG differential between QB1 and QB12 will be approximately 10 PPG, with the first QBs being taken in the late 1st/mid 2nd and the 10th-12th Qbs being taken in the 5th-6th rounds

 

RB - Lots of volatility at the top, but generally speaking, barring injury, top 20 ranked RBs will finish near the top. PPG Wise, the top RB will outscore RB12 by about 11 PPG and RB24 by 14-15 PPG. Top 10 RBs are taken in the 1st round, with RBs 22-24 being drafted by the end of the 4th round.

 

WR - ADP Data is fairly acurate for top 20ish rated WRs. PPG wise, the top WR will outscore WR12 by about 6 PPG and WR 24 by about 10 PPG. WR1 goes in the 1st, with WRs 2-6 ADPing in the 2nd round. WR 12 usually goes early 4th with WR24 going late 5th/early 6th.

 

 

What does this all mean? No matter what, it still comes down to drafting the combination of players that will score the most points. That is more important that what position the player plays.

 

WR is the easiest to take later and not lose out on significant points - you could wait 4 rounds and expect only a 6 PPG drop off, while at RB you would expect a 14-15 PPG drop off for that same drop from round 1 to round 4. At QB, you can wait until round 5 or 6 and expect a 10 PPG drop off from the top QBs taken in round 2. The main difference I see is that with the ADP appearing to be a much more accurate indicator for QB performance, you have a much lower chance of the player drastically exceeding expectation. With the RBs, IMO due to the higher injury chances, there is a chance to hit on a player that performs at a top 6 level later, but I think those odds are a lot slimmer than the general population believes. For every 10th round Knowshon Moreno pick there were 15 other RBs picked that did very little.

 

 

If Iget some more time, I'll try crunch some other numbers, but want to go ahead and post this to see if we can generate some better discussion.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Big Country

[darin3]

Great post, BC, and boiling it all down:

 

What does this all mean? No matter what, it still comes down to drafting the combination of players that will score the most points. That is more important that what position the player plays.

 

 

.... seems like the biggest takeaway.

 

[MikesVikes]

I don't like using the word "always" anytime I'm drafting so I prefer the last option over the third. I've had more success with being the last person to take a QB than being the first. Sometimes the last starting QB drafted has been the top point producer of the year.

 

But if I do wait to draft one then I may also be the first to pick a second one.