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What wide receiver would you take in a ppr league?


Irish27
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Is this a dynasty league or straight up yearly redraft? If redraft, i give Nelson the slight edge. If dynasty, Cobb gets the slight edge. Allen, however, is not far off in either situation.

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I like both Packers ahead of Allen, but it is close. Nelson is the safer pick, but Cobb possibly has more upside, IMO. In other words, if he comes back to his 2012 form (or close), he could very well outscore Nelson in PPR. But, again, there's some risk in that assumption.

 

Meanwhile, while I like Allen, there's also risk in taking a guy who only has one year under his belt. Not a lot of data to go by, other than the fact that he had a really good rookie season. Granted, Cobb hasn't been around much longer than Allen, but I still think Allen is the less-proven player, by a ways. Not to mention, not having "competition for targets" isn't always a good thing... If Allen is truly the #1 option, he might start seeing even more defensive attention than he was last year.

 

Comparing Cobb to Allen, a couple of things stuck out to me. Allen had more games last year with 5 or less targets (5 games) than he had games with double-digit targets (4 games). He also had 3 games with 6 targets, and one game each of 7, 8, and 9 targets. That might not seem like a big deal (even the top WR's in the league don't get double-digit targets consistently). However, Cobb (prior to getting hurt last year) was averaging 10+ targets per game... He had 12, 10, 11, and 8 in Weeks 1-4. Allen also had a very mixed bag, in terms of games, particularly in the first half of the season. He had five games of his first nine in which he scored 25 points (PPR)... TOTAL. So, he had some monster games, and some games in which he did virtually nothing. The last half of the season (or six games, actually) were somewhat more consistent... hitting double-digits in points in all six.

 

So, I'm just a little bit hesitant on Allen. Call it unfamiliarity, or whatever. I could be way off. I just wonder if some of his success last year wasn't due to there being limited options, in terms of who Rivers could throw to. Outside of Allen and the TE's, who did SD have... Eddie Royal? Vincent Brown? Those guys averaged less than 3 targets per game (each). So, to me, it's sort of like the chick/egg argument... Was Allen productive because of his talent, or was he productive because there was no other talent around him? I think the answer is somewhere in the middle of the two... just not sure exactly where.

 

Again, if Cobb comes back to his pre-injury form, I think he's got the most PPR upside of the three WR's you're looking at. I guess it depends on what your confidence level is (in Cobb) versus how you think Allen will perform in Year 2. Meanwhile, Nelson might be the most safe pick of the three, like I mentioned earlier. He had a very good year last year, even during the part of the season in which Cobb played.

Edited by Gopher
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