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Which RB is on final descent?


DMD
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Time for the fork or good value this year?  

74 members have voted

  1. 1. Which RBs are likely to turn around and have a good year?

    • Chris Johnson
      27
    • Steven Jackson
      5
    • Maurice Jones-Drew
      9
    • Arian Foster
      53
    • Ray Rice
      18
  2. 2. Which RBs are into the fantasy death spiral?

    • Chris Johnson
      16
    • Maurice Jones-Drew
      42
    • Arian Foster
      5
    • Ray Rice
      21
    • Steven Jackson
      54


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A number of RBs come off bad years - can they turn it around? They were good before. They might be great draft values this year. Or you may just be chasing the past.

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I voted SJax and MJD as being on the decline, with Foster and Rice (to a lesser degree) bound for bounce-back seasons.

 

Not sure on CJ... I think he'll have another decent year, but nothing like his monster years early in his career. But, it's not like last year was an abysmal disappointment... He was the #8 RB in PPR (and it was his best all-around season since 2010).

 

So, yeah, I'm conservatively optomistic that he'll remain a mid/low RB1, with the off-chance that he might creep back into the upper half of that RB1 category.

Edited by Gopher
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Sorry... Didn't intend to derail the thread into a CJ discussion. Plus, I just realized that I was commenting on his 2014 projections (on MFL), not his 2013 statistics. That changes things even more. Man, I must need a second cup of coffee. :lol:

Edited by Gopher
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Steven Jackson is definitely the #1 guy on the death spiral. Freeman well be stealing time this year and may take the job altogether next season.

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The rest of the RBs on the list can all have a solid year. But all are in the twilight of their careers for sure. Rice's main concern is the looming suspension and the idea that the job will never be his again.

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I though we all knew last year that MJD was done? SJax looks finished to me as well. Foster has too many miles IMO. I think Hou will hand him the ball until he breaks down which will be around week 3.

 

CJ and Rice both probably have another 1200 or so yard year left in them over the next couple/3 years

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Good years: Chris Johnson (love the OL and lack of passing game) and Arian Foster (great schedule and something to prove)

 

Stick a fork in 'em: MJD (seriously?) and S-Jax (has a little gas left but will break down eventually)

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S jax does have a lot of miles but the 1 reason i have kept him on my radar is Jake Matthews. He is a beast on the OL and have someone like that to block for you might just let him have a good season.

 

MJD and CJ have the same problem IMO neither is a clear cut starter anymore. Until they win the job or show that they are producing in a RBBC situation I'm not trusting in them.

 

Foster and Rice are lead backs on their teams and just need to step up and prove it. Foster's only real question is his health cause when he's on the field he ends up producing. Rice on the other hand I have concerns for. He had a terrible year last year and there wasn't any clear cut reason why and with the off season legal issues he has had I wouldn't draft very high or possible at all.

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CJ has always been 1,000 yards runners. I don't think he has another 2,000 yards season in him any more. But I expect him to keep the same productivity as in the past couple of years.

 

I think MJD and S Jax won't be fantasy relevant any more. The one I suspect will go down hill is Foster. Rice is a myth to me, his down fall has more to do with is off court issue.

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Half the people have voted for Foster to bounce back back but no one is really saying why. Other than he has something to prove. Ummm yeah, I think most NFL players feel they have something to prove but can't always do it physically.

 

Anywho it made me rethink my evaluation of him and I realized I have over-estimated how many carries he really has and how long he has been in the league. Surprisingly its the least of all of them and he still is only 27. Same as Rice and less touches. I am kind of interested in what he has left.

Edited by Zooty
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I just listened to the Fantasy Focus podcast and heard them talking about Foster's Back surgery. They said it was the same surgery that S jax bounced back from a couple yeah and had a 1200yd season. Their injury expert also noted that Foster's back problems may have contributed to his ACL injuries.

 

The other fact they mentioned was he was cleared for full contact in April. He played less then half the season and has had a lot of time to recover.

 

I'm keeping a close eye on Foster because I'm looking to trade him in my Keeper league before we announce Keepers...

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I just listened to the Fantasy Focus podcast and heard them talking about Foster's Back surgery. They said it was the same surgery that S jax bounced back from a couple yeah and had a 1200yd season. Their injury expert also noted that Foster's back problems may have contributed to his ACL injuries.

 

The other fact they mentioned was he was cleared for full contact in April. He played less then half the season and has had a lot of time to recover.

 

I'm keeping a close eye on Foster because I'm looking to trade him in my Keeper league before we announce Keepers...

 

 

Trade him for whom? If you don't mind me asking.

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Half the people have voted for Foster to bounce back back but no one is really saying why. Other than he has something to prove. Ummm yeah, I think most NFL players feel they have something to prove but can't always do it physically.

 

Anywho it made me rethink my evaluation of him and I realized I have over-estimated how many carries he really has and how long he has been in the league. Surprisingly its the least of all of them and he still is only 27. Same as Rice and less touches. I am kind of interested in what he has left.

 

 

I'll say this: the Texans schedule vs. the run is very favorable. I believe they have one of the most favorable schedules vs. the run if you're looking at 2013 stats. Of course, things could shift as the season goes on, but at first blush it appears he will have a pretty easy road schedule wise.

 

They let Ben Tate go. Andre Brown was brought in spell Foster but I don't see him as a threat to major vulture carries.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will take the snaps for the offense. He's a vet that can move in the pocket. I don't see defenses going after him overly aggressive as they could with Case Keenum last year.

 

That all said, he has a lot of mileage on those tires. I could see him producing BIG time ... but I could also see him completely breaking down.

 

And no, not all players have "something to prove". Some are locked into lucrative, long-term contracts. Some players have little to prove. They know they're going to be fed the ball (in the case of a RB) with no competition behind them. Foster has something to prove.

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I'll say this: the Texans schedule vs. the run is very favorable. I believe they have one of the most favorable schedules vs. the run if you're looking at 2013 stats. Of course, things could shift as the season goes on, but at first blush it appears he will have a pretty easy road schedule wise.

 

They let Ben Tate go. Andre Brown was brought in spell Foster but I don't see him as a threat to major vulture carries.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will take the snaps for the offense. He's a vet that can move in the pocket. I don't see defenses going after him overly aggressive as they could with Case Keenum last year.

 

That all said, he has a lot of mileage on those tires. I could see him producing BIG time ... but I could also see him completely breaking down.

 

And no, not all players have "something to prove". Some are locked into lucrative, long-term contracts. Some players have little to prove. They know they're going to be fed the ball (in the case of a RB) with no competition behind them. Foster has something to prove.

 

 

I agree with the assessment of the Texans though I don't hold much stock in SOS stuff based on higher seaons.

 

As far as proving stuff. ...the contrats won't pay sheet if they don't continue to prove that they are worth itm. NFL not for long

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I agree with the assessment of the Texans though I don't hold much stock in SOS stuff based on higher seaons.

 

As far as proving stuff. ...the contrats won't pay sheet if they don't continue to prove that they are worth itm. NFL not for long

 

 

I try not to put much stock in SOS either but if a very good schedule is added to other positive factors, I think it bears mentioning. Had it just been a good schedule I don't think I would have given Foster much consideration as a bounce-backer. But there are other factors, IMO.

 

I will contest that some players have more to prove than others. I would classify Foster as a player ... let's not even say he has "something to prove" ... let's say that he's eager to show that 2013 was an anomaly based on injuries and that, entering 2014 healthy, he can post 2012 or even 2010 numbers.

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I try not to put much stock in SOS either but if a very good schedule is added to other positive factors, I think it bears mentioning. Had it just been a good schedule I don't think I would have given Foster much consideration as a bounce-backer. But there are other factors, IMO.

 

I will contest that some players have more to prove than others. I would classify Foster as a player ... let's not even say he has "something to prove" ... let's say that he's eager to show that 2013 was an anomaly based on injuries and that, entering 2014 healthy, he can post 2012 or even 2010 numbers.

 

 

maybe..... pretty sure he's one of the guys sitting on a fat contract already....

 

I don't personally know him so I would be hard pressed to assume that he's eager to show that last season was an anomaly. Let's hope he's more like Adrian Peterson than Chris Johnson

 

ETA- Hopefully Jerry Ricecake can take some pressure off the running game :unsure:

Edited by Zooty
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maybe..... pretty sure he's one of the guys sitting on a fat contract already....

 

I don't personally know him so I would be hard pressed to assume that he's eager to show that last season was an anomaly. Let's hope he's more like Adrian Peterson than Chris Johnson

 

ETA- Hopefully Jerry Ricecake can take some pressure off the running game :unsure:

 

 

I don't know the guy either ... maybe it's just a gut feel + schedule + addition of Fitzpatrick to stablize the offense (to a degree).

 

Just thinking he has a big year. And I don't own him in any league FWIW.

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I voted on the poll, but as an aside, and obviously just my opinion, I have this sneaky suspicion that this will be Peterson's last "great" season. I hope to trade him around the 3rd week of November for a younger stud RB. I actually hope I am wrong, as I have had him on my team since his rookie year.

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MJD will have at least 200 total yards more than anyone in the poll. MJD was one of the best, after-contact, RBs in the league last year. 2013 JAC sucks much worse than 2014 OAK.

 

Remember my post and bump it in December.

200 more total yards than Arian Foster? That's downright crazy talk. Besides, MJD will be splitting carries with the more athletic RUN-DMC.

Edited by electricrelish
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