1st Overall Pick - PPR, PPC

[Skarzon]

Hi All,

 

Having a difficult time deciding on who to take 1st overall in my PPR/PPC league. Snake draft and the top 2 (at least) QB's will be gone by the time I pick again at 20 and 21. Standard re-draft league.

• QB's get 1pt per completion, 1 per 25yrds, 4 per TD and -2 per INT. All other scoring is standard PPR format.
  
• Manning scored 856pts last year, Brees had 794 - next was Ryan at 678...
  

 

Top 2 QB's in this league have historically been HUGE, but do I pass on the top RB or WR to grab Manning or Brees?

 

Lineup:

QB

RB

RB

WR

WR

TE

Flex

D

K

Edited July 7, 2014 by Skarzon

[Big Country]

What do the top RBs and WRs score usually? What has the scoring spread been like over the last few years?

 

 

On the surface, it looks like this is one of those leagues where Qb scoring is so heavily skewed that it almost only matters what your QB does in any given week to determine your W/L for that week. We'd need to see the normal scoring distribution though to determine if htat is the case (though I am 90% sure from provided info that it is).

 

Assuming this is the case, you take your top rated QB first. Depending on the above answers, and if there really are only a couple QBs taken in the 1st 2 rounds in this system, you would heavily consider grabbing a 2nd QB very early (ie with one of your 2nd/3rd round picks) as insurance/trade bait, if the scoring drop is historically large, which often times can be the case in a PPC system.

[Skarzon]

Thanks for the reply. QB scoring is huge in this league, like you said you live an die by what they produce, so consistency is key. You can make up for it if you have some real stud RB/WR combos though.

 

I have thought about trade bait on an early second round QB, but I would feel better just getting the best guys available with my 2nd and 3rd picks, then maybe grabbing someone like Romo or Ryan that drops on the board to dangle in front of someone that has a QB injury (Me with Rogers last year).

 

Here is a breakdown of the league scoring averages by position

 

(Top 3, Top 10, Overall Position):

 

QB 49 42 27RB 21 17 12WR 19 18 12TE 15 13 10

 

 

Thinking of picking Manning first, but just not sure passing up on Peterson, Charles or McCoy is worth it. Brees has gotten his team to the SuperBowl the past two years and won one, lost the other due to a lucky Andy Dalton 58 point day...Manning would have rolled if the guy that had him didn't drop off the face of the earth for the last half of the season.

[Big Country]

What are your lineup requirements?

 

What is the spread of scoring between the required starters? (This is a simplified way of looking at positional value)

 

So, for example, if this is a 12 team league with a lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, you look at the spread between the #1 and #12 QB, the #1 and #24 RB and WR and the #1 and #12 TE. THat gives you an idea of where the value lies.

 

From the numbers you provide above, a top 3 QB gives you a 7 point advantage over a top 10 QB, a top 3 RB gives you a 4 point advantage over a top 10 RB, a top 3 WR gives you 1 point over a top 10 WR and the TE gives you a 2 point advantage. This makes it super clear that a top 3 QB is essential, as the spread is double that of the next closest position (plus the volume of scoring is more than double any other position, so a top 3, consistent QB is key).

 

I think when you look at actual values rather than averaged values, the spread will be even more apparent, especially if you extend it to the full range of starters.

[Skarzon]

This makes it super clear that a top 3 QB is essential, as the spread is double that of the next closest position (plus the volume of scoring is more than double any other position, so a top 3, consistent QB is key).

 

I think when you look at actual values rather than averaged values, the spread will be even more apparent, especially if you extend it to the full range of starters.

 

 

Think that just did it for me, QB is a must and drafting 1 then 20, 21 (10 team league, snake) will make it tough to get a top QB later.

 

If 3 QB's go in the first two rounds before my second pick at 20 (and at least 3 have gone early every year), then the drop off in Available Average goes from #1 Manning at 54ppg to #4 Rivers at 40ppg. (Kinda levels out after top 2: 54, 50, 42, 41, 40, 40, 39, 39, 39, 39, 37...).

 

Averages 14ppg difference from #1 to #4..

 

Looking at the actual point values 856, 794, 678, 654, 640, 638, 622...shows how much of a huge drop off there is and how critical it is to get a top QB.

 

202 overall point difference from #1 to #4.

 

Thanks for the time and advice! It's what I've been thinking, just had to get a second opinion on going QB #1 overall.

[robotpimp]

I would ask how many QB's will be gone by the time you pick again in round 2?

 

I regardless the league and scoring if the league embraces this scoring and there is a big QB push in the first two rounds then I would maybe consider it because all other positions shift.

You will either set the trend with Peyton @ 1 or maybe Brees and Rodgers will go by the time your 2nd round pick comes back.

If you don't set the QB run trend you're looking to play catch up on both RB and WR because their are only 4 Tier 1 backs (AP, Forte, Charles, McCoy..imo).. and probably 7-8 top WR's even at 10 teams you're looking at the end of both those.

For me having a solid RB1 and then evaluating you have 2.10/3.1 picks at that moment you can decide on a QB. but I don't know your league. Like RB's, the top QB's drop after three as you have shown and stated.

I like Peyton I could see that with the drastic amount of points above everyone else.. But if you could target Matty Ice with JJ back, 3 WR sets and a more formable receiving RB or RB's (more formable compared to when Turner was there) its risky but I think you could see similar completions at a value that gives you an elite back and possibly WR1. tough spot.. you could argue both ways. I'm leaning towards Charles or AP but that's just me based on roster fulfillment and depth of other positions.

 

Did the guy who had Peyton hands down win the league? just wondering not that it matters..

[mac88]

With that scoring type I would definitely take Manning, he's going to have another monster season.

[Skarzon]

I would ask how many QB's will be gone by the time you pick again in round 2?

 

 

Top 3 or 4 QB's will go before I pick again at 2.10, whether I start the run on em or not. Manning, Brees and Rogers for sure.

 

If you don't set the QB run trend you're looking to play catch up on both RB and WR because their are only 4 Tier 1 backs (AP, Forte, Charles, McCoy..imo).. and probably 7-8 top WR's even at 10 teams you're looking at the end of both those.

 

 

Yep, that's why it's dangerous taking the QB first overall, but if Manning even does 70% of last year he's still a top 2 QB...

 

For me having a solid RB1 and then evaluating you have 2.10/3.1 picks at that moment you can decide on a QB. but I don't know your league. Like RB's, the top QB's drop after three as you have shown and stated.

I like Peyton I could see that with the drastic amount of points above everyone else.. But if you could target Matty Ice with JJ back, 3 WR sets and a more formable receiving RB or RB's (more formable compared to when Turner was there) its risky but I think you could see similar completions at a value that gives you an elite back and possibly WR1. tough spot.. you could argue both ways.

 

 

The Matty Ice scenario is the reason I've been debating who to take, but it's still close to 200 points to make up at QB. Does a stud RB1 make that up? AP vs someone like Le'Veon Bell, Reggie Bush or Giovani? #1RB to #10RB spread was about 140 points last year.

 

I've been mocking a few different scenarios, but I haven't found even PPR mocks, let alone PPC as well. Just standard 10 man snakes...but it give a few things to think about.

 

My gut feeling is that Manning or Brees is more of a sure thing than AP, Charles, Forte or Shady. Same guy has ended up with Brees two years in a row and he won it all 2 years ago and lost in the Superbowl last year.

 

Did the guy who had Peyton hands down win the league? just wondering not that it matters..

 

 

No, he didn't, but he should have. He disappeared halfway through the season, didn't update his roster after week 4 and still made the playoffs (and won his 1st round game) pretty much on Manning alone.

[Big Country]

Top 3 or 4 QB's will go before I pick again at 2.10, whether I start the run on em or not. Manning, Brees and Rogers for sure.

 

 

 

Yep, that's why it's dangerous taking the QB first overall, but if Manning even does 70% of last year he's still a top 2 QB...

 

 

 

The Matty Ice scenario is the reason I've been debating who to take, but it's still close to 200 points to make up at QB. Does a stud RB1 make that up? AP vs someone like Le'Veon Bell, Reggie Bush or Giovani? #1RB to #10RB spread was about 140 points last year.

 

I've been mocking a few different scenarios, but I haven't found even PPR mocks, let alone PPC as well. Just standard 10 man snakes...but it give a few things to think about.

 

My gut feeling is that Manning or Brees is more of a sure thing than AP, Charles, Forte or Shady. Same guy has ended up with Brees two years in a row and he won it all 2 years ago and lost in the Superbowl last year.

 

 

 

No, he didn't, but he should have. He disappeared halfway through the season, didn't update his roster after week 4 and still made the playoffs (and won his 1st round game) pretty much on Manning alone.

 

 

All of your answers are the exact reason why going QB first is the right choice in this setup. Even if you are wrong on Manning, if that is your choice, even Manning at 75% of last year is giving you more of a value advantage than AP/Charles/McCoy at their best.