Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Just curious to get some thoughts here, I know that drafting a RB is 9 times out of 10 the way to go as ive done it many times before and ive had plenty of success. However, ive always had success taking QBs first but not always so early, however in the league its 6pt TDs, 3 bonus for 300 yards and 5 point bonus for 400 yards, plus 3 points for TDs 40+ yards. Does this justify it in any shape or form for some guys? Throw me some thoughts, again I know its almost taboo to do so but want some opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millworkguy Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I don't think I could do it in a 10 team redraft. If it was a ppc, 2 qb league yeah I could see it, even with your scoring in a 16 team league maybe, where your second pick is forever away and you may see 3 off the board before it comes back to you, but with Charles and McCoy at the top I think that's were I would be going Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 with the bonuses, almost but not at 2 overall, especially in a 10 teamer. Non-PPR I could consider it at 3 this year but doubt I could pull the trigger. Even in no-PPR I doubt I could do it before 7 or 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 See what I sometimes feel that gives me success is having that almost weekly guaranteed elite QB reliability and 25-40+ points. Are you guys happy with teams you're getting early I'm 10 mans? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolphin_Akie Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Outside the top 5 I would be much more inclined, I have enough faith in the top 5 RBs on my board that I'd choose them in a 10 team re-draft even with bonuses for QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 Last year put a little fear in me is all, that top 5 just burned so many. But I am a bigger fan of guys like McCoy and peterson etc, still I guess reliability attracts me even more. Even Megatron would feel safer, RBs just get so busted up these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Do some basic analysis. With your scoring system, look at scores over the last 3-4 years. What do the top Qbs score compared to the QBs in the 8-10 range. What do the top RBs score compared to the RBs in the 16-20 range. This gives you a basic idea of what position is offering the most value in general. Obviously a more detailed analysis based on current year projections is required for any more concrete suggestions, but at least looking at trend data, you can see if there is even any reason to look further into whether or not a QB should make sense that early in your league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rimmytose Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I agree with the crowd here, but I am not big on having an elite QB myself. I went heavy on RBs and WRs last year and had a lot of success. Winning one league with RGIII (Charles/Forte were my studs) and coming close in another with Stafford. While it is only one season so not a great sample, I am sticking with it. The two years prior I went with elite QBs and by the time playoffs rolled around they were not nearly as productive and cost me the playoffs. I have found that the difference in points, at least in my experience, the drop off in production from tier 1 to tier 2 of QBs is less than the drop off in other positions. There is a well written article on the huddle somewhere about this as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 Do some basic analysis. With your scoring system, look at scores over the last 3-4 years. What do the top Qbs score compared to the QBs in the 8-10 range. What do the top RBs score compared to the RBs in the 16-20 range. This gives you a basic idea of what position is offering the most value in general. Obviously a more detailed analysis based on current year projections is required for any more concrete suggestions, but at least looking at trend data, you can see if there is even any reason to look further into whether or not a QB should make sense that early in your league. Yea I'll take a peek, however I do know that Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady is typically 100+ over your Dalton's and other mid late round QBs. See what I've always observed is late round QBs might end up with 280-350 points, but what they lack is consistency. But they achieve those points because they have those occasional monster games, but have many bad to mediocre weeks. But in the end, the scores don't look that big of a drop off. The elites are from my experiences steady 25-40+ week to week, so even those extra 10-15 points can be key. But the only reason I thinking or leaning is simply because last year the top 5 RBs were such a crap shoot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Yea I'll take a peek, however I do know that Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady is typically 100+ over your Dalton's and other mid late round QBs. See what I've always observed is late round QBs might end up with 280-350 points, but what they lack is consistency. But they achieve those points because they have those occasional monster games, but have many bad to mediocre weeks. But in the end, the scores don't look that big of a drop off. The elites are from my experiences steady 25-40+ week to week, so even those extra 10-15 points can be key. But the only reason I thinking or leaning is simply because last year the top 5 RBs were such a crap shoot. It's not late round QBs that you are neccessarily looking for - you look at the end of the fantasy starter QBs - the guys that are in the top 10-12 depending on league size. Do a consistency analysis then along with your value anlaysis. What I have done in the past is take all the weekly scores and then do a count for how often a QB was: A. Top 4 in a week - call that elite level B. Top 12 (or 10, depends on league size) - fantasy starter C. 13-18 range - Serviceable (usually the drop between 12 and 18 is not that significant) D. 19+ - Dud With this info in hand along with your projections, you can better guess who you think will provide you a decent score with some level of consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 I just always noticed over the last 10 some years with fantasy its generally 2-4 players on someone's team that sort of carries them. So some teams it might be that beast RB and WR with a decent rest of a team, or someone with a beast QB, WR and TE that just carries. I think its because of having success with sometimes great RBs, but then having great success with other positions and being light on RB. That's really the main reason I'm a bit torn this year. Let me ask this, does Megatron or Graham per say seem viable at all with a 2nd pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skarzon Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Had this same discussion around the first overall pick in a 10 team PPC league. QB is looking like the best bet there, but the data really backs it up. In your league, QB isn't as obvious a powerhouse, but I agree completely with the consistency week to week being huge. Tough call and if the analysis BC suggests doesn't show a clear path, then I could certainly see taking Megatron second, might be a bit high for Graham even in a PPR, but you have to know how your league will draft and what you can expect to be available at your next pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Had this same discussion around the first overall pick in a 10 team PPC league. QB is looking like the best bet there, but the data really backs it up. In your league, QB isn't as obvious a powerhouse, but I agree completely with the consistency week to week being huge. Tough call and if the analysis BC suggests doesn't show a clear path, then I could certainly see taking Megatron second, might be a bit high for Graham even in a PPR, but you have to know how your league will draft and what you can expect to be available at your next pick. This. Do the anlaysis, see if the data available presents any clear conclusions (as clear as it can get in FF at least), and proceed from there accordingly. I personally don't see enough of a difference between what you will likely get from Calvin compared to a WR avai;lable in the 2nd/3rd round to warrant taking him that high. Graham really depends on your projections. Probably a bit early for him. The call between QB and RB comes down to what your analysis based on your scoring system, lineup requirements and league draft tendencies tells you is the most prudent course to build the strongest team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 Only thing is with yahoo I don't think I can look at the week to week stats, I can see the games but not sure if I can see what the players did for past seasons. What I did do tho a bit was look at championship teams and noticed how many had elite QBs in them for a handful of years, but I know thats just a loose bit of data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 See I feel, just my gut feeling that this year mid to late is where teams are getting better value and a better quality team, but that's just my opinion from a handful of mocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustangt125 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 (edited) No. If you have top 3, you pick McCoy, Charles, or AP. You could potentially get one of the QBs on the way down in round 2 if the draft is RB/WR heavy. Just yesterday I saw a guy get Brees with the last pick of the 2nd round in a 12 team league. Set yourself up with one of the top RBs and then plan to take one of those elite QBs if they are there near the end of round 2. IF they aren't, then you should be able to pick up a top WR or another stud RB, like Le'Veon Bell. Edited July 21, 2014 by Mustangt125 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 No. If you have top 3, you pick McCoy, Charles, or AP. You could potentially get one of the QBs on the way down in round 2 if the draft is RB/WR heavy. Just yesterday I saw a guy get Brees with the last pick of the 2nd round in a 12 team league. Set yourself up with one of the top RBs and then plan to take one of those elite QBs if they are there near the end of round 2. IF they aren't, then you should be able to pick up a top WR or another stud RB, like Le'Veon Bell. How can you say this for sure without knowing how the unique aspects of his scoring system (which he mentioned in his first post, but has not followed up with actual scoring info) affect player valuations or even what his lineup requirements are. In a cookie cutter league, I'd agree with you most of the time, but in this league, there is the possibility with that scoring that the importance of snagging a top QB cant be understated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 Big I haven't had a chance to really sit with it and get that scoring info sadly. Overall I'm pretty much grabbing Peterson or Charles, but I don't like the spot because both I really don't feel will have amazing seasons, out of those two. I almost want like the 6th or the pick to not have to make the choice however, I'm just not in love with Charles and that OL, and Peterson is just getting so hyped with Norv, tough decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Big I haven't had a chance to really sit with it and get that scoring info sadly. Overall I'm pretty much grabbing Peterson or Charles, but I don't like the spot because both I really don't feel will have amazing seasons, out of those two. I almost want like the 6th or the pick to not have to make the choice however, I'm just not in love with Charles and that OL, and Peterson is just getting so hyped with Norv, tough decision. What was last years scoring - skip consistency worries, a simple look at what QBs are scoringcompared to the other spots is all that is neede for a better bit of advice. Earlier you mentioned the top QBs average 25-40 a game... that;s a big range, but let's say at 30 points a game, a top QB is putting up about 480 points on the season. You then mention that a late round QB will score 28-350 - also a pretty large range, call it 330 on average. So, that is a 150 point hit if you wait on Qb and take a late round one. What did the top RBs score? How about those RBs that are still fantasy starters but taken later, the RB 18-24 range... how much dip is there in scoring there? Then, you look at your confidence in predictions - you've already said that you are not too confident in the RBs, but let's say we are pretty confident in Manning/Bress being the top QBs. Really looking at the gap in scoring is key here. You won't/haven't done the homework, but are already commiting to a strategy without having the key information in place. Not exactly a wise idea - take the 5 minutes to look up the scoring from last year (better if you look at scoring over a few years to eliminate outliers) and then make an educated decision. No matter what you do, it may not work out, or it may work despite your decision, but at least attempt to make an informed decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 Crap I deleted my post on accident on my phone lol, I'll repost in a bit in case you didn't catch it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpr103 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Just curious to get some thoughts here, I know that drafting a RB is 9 times out of 10 the way to go as ive done it many times before and ive had plenty of success. However, ive always had success taking QBs first but not always so early, however in the league its 6pt TDs, 3 bonus for 300 yards and 5 point bonus for 400 yards, plus 3 points for TDs 40+ yards. Does this justify it in any shape or form for some guys? In a word, yes. I'm answering your question in bold, but, like others have mentioned you need to look at previous years points and how they stack up. This kind of league slants heavily toward QBs, so everyone's QB will be their highest scorer - but the elites that throw in the neighborhood of 5,000 yards and 40 TDs will get a lot more of those bonus points that don't exist for RBs or WRs getting getting 100 yd games. If you're picking #2 Manning, Brees and Rodgers will be gone by the time you get your second pick. In a standard, 4-point league Stafford or Newton or one of the other middlers will do, but in a league like this, I wouldn't go to battle without one of the big three. I'd favor Brees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead316 Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 (edited) Big here are some players and scores, grabbing some of the ones i come across here checking teams: Peyton 587 Ellington 156 Sjax 131 Charles 347 Graham 295 L.Bell 197 Brady 332 McCoy 357 Brees 503 Matthews 215 Gore 196 Romo 348 Ryan 332 Fjax 214 Dalton 381 Johnson 236 Murray 245 Moreno 275 Luck 356 The interesting thing about the last 5 i gave you was all on one team. A dude had all those guys, on top of having Aj Green and his record was 6-7, and he came in 6th. But those were some really nice RB performances imho. He is a great player as well, never misses a lineup set, just a great all around player and plays hard. But even with all that RB action came up pretty short. Anyways, those were some numbers. Edited July 28, 2014 by Metalhead316 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.