Ridiculous Keeper PPR Team - Only Three to Keep

[bpr103]

We don't get a FLEX, but we can do 1-3 RBs or WRs (our choice: 1-3, 2-2, 3-1). Can't trade for draft picks or I would.

 

My team won last year, so we get pick 12 in the draft. Not sure who to keep this year:

 

Peyton Manning (QB/Den)

Montee Ball (RB/Den)

Chris Ivory (RB/NYJ)

Marshawn Lynch (RB/Sea)

DeMarco Murray (RB/Dal)

Ray Rice (RB/Bal)

Tavon Austin (WR/StL)

Riley Cooper (WR/Phi)

Michael Crabtree (WR/SF)

Demaryius Thomas (WR/Den)

Roddy White (WR/Atl)

Jimmy Graham (TE/NO)

Matt Prater (K/Den)

Seattle D (D/Sea)

 

Scoring is standard PPR with small twists (in Bold):

Passing 4pts./TD, 1pt/25 yds, -2pts. /int, 2pts. /2-pt conversion, 1pt per 30-yds on a passing td

 

Rushing: 1pt/10yds; 6pts/TD; 2pts/2-pt conversion; 1pt/20yds on a long rushing TD

 

Receiving: 1PPR; 1pt./10yds.; 6pts/TD; 2pts/2-pt conversion; 1pt/20yds on a long rec TD

 

K, D/ST, are standard, 6 points per TD, 2 pts. for turnovers, 1 pt. per sack, standard yardage for kickers, which I don't plan on keeping.

 

I've got my thoughts, but I want to hear from you pros. This is a keeper league, and with Peyton aging (and in a PPR league) he's questionable. On the other hand, with Peyton aging, his teammates are just as questionable over the long haul!

 

What do you think?

[Zooty]

D. Thomas is the obvious first keeper.

The next 2 for me would be between Graham, Lynch and Murray.

 

I'm assuming this is a TE mandatory league? I would keep Graham because he is so far ahead of everyone else at TE. If you don't have to use a TE I wouldn't keep him at all.

 

My 3rd choice would be Lynch over Murray. Since you play to win this year and I just don't trust Murray and his ability to stay healthy.

[bwebs13]

Montee Ball (RB/Den)

Demaryius Thomas (WR/Den)

Jimmy Graham (TE/NO)

 

wow this is tough, it was hard to get rid of peyton. since its keeper i dont see lynch or murray lasting toooo much longer therefore i chose Ball even though I am not a huge fan.

 

hard not to keep Jimmy as he is by far the best TE (do TE's count as WR's in your league?)

 

Demaryius is a beast and a top WR hard to let go.

 

wow this is a nice tough decision to have good luck.

[Big Country]

We don't get a FLEX, but we can do 1-3 RBs or WRs (our choice: 1-3, 2-2, 3-1). Can't trade for draft picks or I would.

 

 

 

First off, that is 2 flex positions - just the flex doesn't include TE which is not that uncommon (though should be IMO)- 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 RB/WR (just had to be nitpicky)

 

I think I would go Ball. Thomas and Graham, assuming TE is required.... if TE is not required, I think I would go Ball, Lynch and Thomas.

 

Hard to drop Manning there, but reality is that he is the option that is easiest to make up for in the draft.

[bpr103]

Thanks for the feedback, folks. Yeah, I didn't look at it that way, but it is two flex positions.

 

And yes, TE is mandatory.

 

So, you pretty much confirmed for me that it's okay to let go of Peyton.

 

I have until the draft in August to make a final decision, but barring injury to anyone I think it'll be Graham, Thomas and Ball.

[romie24]

I would need to know what rounds you drafted guys in. Assuming you draft Ball much later than Lynch and Murray I would have to say keep Ball, Graham, and Thomas this way you can still have a top pick and get one more good rb

[Big Country]

I would need to know what rounds you drafted guys in. Assuming you draft Ball much later than Lynch and Murray I would have to say keep Ball, Graham, and Thomas this way you can still have a top pick and get one more good rb

 

 

Why does this matter? He's not forfeiting picks in order to keep players.

[bpr103]

I would need to know what rounds you drafted guys in. Assuming you draft Ball much later than Lynch and Murray I would have to say keep Ball, Graham, and Thomas this way you can still have a top pick and get one more good rb

 

 

It's not that kind of league: my pick is going to be 12 in every round no matter what.

[bpr103]

Thanks again for the feedback. Lynch and Manning are still possibilities - I just HATE having two players on the same team as my keepers, let alone three.

[Big Country]

Thanks again for the feedback. Lynch and Manning are still possibilities - I just HATE having two players on the same team as my keepers, let alone three.

 

 

Why?

 

If they are the best player you have available to choose, you choose them.

[bpr103]

Why?

 

If they are the best player you have available to choose, you choose them.

 

 

Of course, you're right. But I always feel it's best to have stars from a diversity of teams. This limits exposure to injury or simply bad performances/strong opponents.

 

In this case, if Peyton goes down for a few weeks (or they face a DEF like the Seahawks) my WR and my RB are going to be affected negatively in the same week, and we'll probably lose. We all saw what happened to the Colts when backups came in.

 

 

In general, I don't like taking tandems like Brees/Graham; Brady/Gronk; Stafford/Calvin... because an injury (or simply a bad statistical week) to either affects both players, doubling its impact on my team.

 

Of course, you have to take the best player available off the board. But sometimes I believe the best pure player isn't the best player for my team (maybe because of position needs, maybe because I already have a bunch of players from the same offense).

 

EDIT: one thing I wouldn't sacrifice a better player for is bye week: sometimes I'll find 4-5 of my starters having the same bye week and simply sacrifice that week for a better team.

Edited July 30, 2014 by bpr103

[Big Country]

Of course, you're right. But I always feel it's best to have stars from a diversity of teams. This limits exposure to injury or simply bad performances/strong opponents.

 

In this case, if Peyton goes down for a few weeks (or they face a DEF like the Seahawks) my WR and my RB are going to be affected negatively in the same week, and we'll probably lose. We all saw what happened to the Colts when backups came in.

 

 

In general, I don't like taking tandems like Brees/Graham; Brady/Gronk; Stafford/Calvin... because an injury (or simply a bad statistical week) to either affects both players, doubling its impact on my team.

 

Of course, you have to take the best player available off the board. But sometimes I believe the best pure player isn't the best player for my team (maybe because of position needs, maybe because I already have a bunch of players from the same offense).

 

EDIT: one thing I wouldn't sacrifice a better player for is bye week: sometimes I'll find 4-5 of my starters having the same bye week and simply sacrifice that week for a better team.

 

 

FYI - the statistics on this stuff do not back up your concerns. Several posts from the last few years culling data that showed this to not be the case.

 

 

The best player is the best player. Each decision is independent of the other in terms of fantasy football.

[flemingd]

It's Ball, Thomas, and Graham for me, and it's not even close. You could keep those guys for 5-10 years in this league.

[Avernus]

It's Ball, Thomas, and Graham for me, and it's not even close. You could keep those guys for 5-10 years in this league.

 

 

THIS.

[bpr103]

Thanks for all the feedback, it reinforces my initial feelings.

 

FYI - the statistics on this stuff do not back up your concerns. Several posts from the last few years culling data that showed this to not be the case.

 

 

The best player is the best player. Each decision is independent of the other in terms of fantasy football.

 

 

I'm interested in this, and here's what I found:

 

1. Here's a Manning/Wayne comparison of weeks that shows that having same team QB/WR1 has a very high volatility rate.

2. Here's a 2008 article that studies pairs of top WRs, RB/QB, and RB/WR pairs from the same team but contains the important parenthetical:

(Note that QB/WR pairs are very different. They will, in the vast majority of cases produce a postive [sIC] covariance, and hence make your team less consistent.)

 

We're talking about Peyton Manning here. Not a top ten QB. A top 3 QB, and the entire offense is dependent on him. Averaging things out over top tens makes sense, but when you're dealing with teams like the Broncos, Packers, and Saints, an injury to the QB can cripple every player on the team. RBs may not be affected so much, but when the running game is dependent on a competent passing game (as the Broncos and many current offenses are) you're headed for trouble if the QB goes down. Bottom line, Peyton Manning made Joseph Addai a viable starter.

 

It's like when Troy Aikman went down and was replaced by Babe Laufenberg back in the nineties: that team couldn't do anything. Emmitt Smith had terrible games after scoring four touchdowns in Aikman's last full week.

 

Some Quarterbacks are different, and their performance (or lack thereof) will affect every player on the offense.

[Big Country]

Are you drafting a team based on fear of injury to a player? If you fear the injury that much, then you shouldn't be drafting the player in the first place.

 

Let's say you have Manning already.

 

Your next pick is up.

 

You have to choose between Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant.

 

You project Thomas to be a better WR than Bryant this year.

 

If you choose Bryant because you have Manning, you have made a poor value decision based on your projections.

 

 

At the end of the year, you want to score the most points. It is possible that the same team combo of QB/WR is more volatile in terms of highs/lows on a weekly basis, but if you project (and the player performs accordingly) one for more points, then you should be drafting the one you project for more points.

[bpr103]

Are you drafting a team based on fear of injury to a player? If you fear the injury that much, then you shouldn't be drafting the player in the first place.

 

Let's say you have Manning already.

 

Your next pick is up.

 

You have to choose between Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant.

 

You project Thomas to be a better WR than Bryant this year.

 

If you choose Bryant because you have Manning, you have made a poor value decision based on your projections.

 

 

At the end of the year, you want to score the most points. It is possible that the same team combo of QB/WR is more volatile in terms of highs/lows on a weekly basis, but if you project (and the player performs accordingly) one for more points, then you should be drafting the one you project for more points.

 

 

You make good points, but in your example, I'd take Bryant, because my point predictions put him very close to Thomas (<2 pts per game). They're both tier-1 WRs. If the spread was, say, Demaryius vs. Vincent Jackson or Pierre Garcon we're looking at >3 pts per game, and I'd take the risk of WR/QB on the same team.

 

It's not about drafting based on fear of injury, but reducing risk by diversifying. If you have a QB/WR1 combo, when the QB has a bad night (or an injury) your whole team has a bad week because your WR1 is also affected by the bad week (or injury). If you have WRs from different teams than your QB, then you can survive a dud by your QB (or, say, a 1st quarter concussion).