eataylor87 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 (edited) I'm in a high-stakes Auction league and we can keep up to two players from one year to the next. You basically keep a player for the value that you purchased him in the prior year, rounded up to $20 (if less) or down to $45 (if more) or somewhere in the middle. If it's a 2nd time (or more) keeper, the player's value is whatever the avg. sale price is for that player in Yahoo Leagues. Ex. being that I bought Adrian Peterson for $29 in 2012 ... he blew up ... I kept him for $29 last year when he went on average for $72 in Yahoo leagues. So his keeper price this year is $45 (rounded down from $72). If you have a plethora of keeper options, you can sell ONE to another team for a fee. Example here being Le'Veon Bell, who can be kept for $20 ... he's going for $46 in Yahoo Leagues, so I could sell him for $20 to someone ... get that extra cap space and my trade partner gets to keep him for $40 rather than buy him for $43 or more. Anyway, it allows for everyone to get at least one keeper if they want, and creates some engagement prior to our draft. It's a 10 team 0.5 PPR league. We get 16 roster spots ... start QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K, DEF and a W/R and W/R/T. These are the following players I am considering to keep and sell, with their keeper cost and "avg. sale rate" as of now in yahoo league's, inflated up to match our $220 cap. - Adrian Peterson ... keeper cost $45 ... going for $62 in auctions - Le'Veon Bell ... keeper cost $20 ... going for $41 in auctions - Jordy Nelson ... keeper cost $20 ... going for $34 in auctions - Jimmy Graham ... keeper cost $41 ... going for $57 in auctions - Zac Stacy ... keeper cost $20 ... going for $33 in auctions I also have Alfred Morris ($44) and Pierre Garcon ($22) but from a pure value stand point, it would probably not be beneficial to keep them. So last year I came in 5th despite finishing in the league lead with points. I faltered primarily because I built a run-heavy team that did not live up to expectations. I was essentially carried by Jimmy Graham and Nelson/Bell/Stacy in the latter portion of the season. I plan to build a team that features 4-5 strong WR options and 2-3 RBs to go along with RGIII at QB (betting heavy on him ... carried me in 2012). I'm currently leaning toward keeping Jordy Nelson and Le'Veon Bell ... then targeting Doug Martin/Alfred morris as my RB2/RB3 ... and Julio Jones to be my WR2. I then plan to spend cheap but grab a bunch of guys in the mold of C. Patterson, Crabtree, M. Floyd, Trent Richardson, R. Jennings, Christine Michael, etc. to get a good mix of studs and breakout/sleepers. I would try and sell Stacy or Peterson for $15-20 before the draft so my starting cap would be $235-240 before taking away the $40 to keep Bell/Nelson. Is that a smart move? Or am I crazy for not keeping Jimmy Graham or AP. I'm afraid of the cliff for Peterson, and while I love Graham, I feel like I can either re-buy him for around $50 or spend $10-15 combined and grab two guys like Reed/Ertz to rotate the position and spend heavily elsewhere. I have a hard time believing Graham would go for $57 in my league, but I'm even weary of spending $41 on a TE, even if it's Graham. I feel like I could get pretty good production at TE out of someone like Reed or Ertz for a lot less, and spend that money on a stud WR3 or WR4. I know this is a bit long, but I'm really struggling with this decision. I've been burned in the past building teams around the run game, even in the .5 PPR format ... and I feel I can't go wrong ... but do want to keep Nelson ... I guess the decision comes down to whether or not to go cheap and take a flyer on Bell for $20 and hope he lives up to the hype ... or take a risk on AP at $45 and hope he doesn't hit the cliff ... or spend "bigger" on Graham but build the pass game. Thoughts? Thanks guys! Edited July 22, 2014 by eataylor87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 (edited) I'll also mention that I've built a number of mock rosters based on keeper costs and current avg. auction values. I know it will vary greatly by league, but it gives me a bit of a benchmark for how I can at least try and structure my team. I was able to build this team ... assuming I sell AP or Stacy for $15 and have a starting cap of $235 ... I still have $10 left over to ensure I can get the guys I want, but here's my favorite one: QB: RGIII ($7) RB: Doug Martin ($33) RB: Alfred Morris ($29) WR: Jordy Nelson ($20) - Keeper WR: Julio Jones ($40) TE: Rob Gronkowski ($14) Flex: Le'Veon Bell ($20) - Keeper Flex: Michael Crabtree ($13) Kicker: Anyone for $1 Defense: Spend $2 BENCH: RB Trent Richardson ($4) BENCH: RB Christine Michael ($2) BENCH: WR Cordarrelle Patterson ($12) BENCH: WR Michael Floyd ($5) BENCH: QB Matt Ryan ($6) BENCH: TE Jordan Reed ($2) Total Spent: $210 Starting Cap: $230 ($220 + $10 fee for trading AP or Stacy) Extra: $20 Edited July 22, 2014 by eataylor87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Are those auction values based off of the same cap that you guys use? Numbers seem kind of high for a $220ish cap. I think Bell for $20 is an obvious choice. Second choice is a bit more difficult.... Nelson is okay value at the price, but I think you could easily find comparable players in the auction. The same can't be said of Graham, though I think at $41 is a bit more than I;' like to pay for a TE, however, that is offset if you succesfully sell a player for $15-20, which means you are essentially keeping him for $20-25, which would be a no brainer. I guess my advice/approach would be: Sell Stacy or Peterson, which ever one nets you the most. Keep Bell for $20 Keep Graham for $41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 (edited) Are those auction values based off of the same cap that you guys use? Numbers seem kind of high for a $220ish cap. Yahoo provides data in their draft prep section that tells you what their yahoo value is (based on standard leagues) but then provides the average cost per player across Yahoo drafts to date. It certainly is inflated ... but it provides for the human element and I always like to use that as a reference. So Yahoo says Adrian Peterson is worth $55 ... but in Yahoo league's his average going rate is something like $60.7 ... but that's against a $200 cap. So what I do, to make it as comparable as possible to my league, is take every player and multiply their yahoo avg. by 1.1 (10% increase of the $220 over the base $200 yahoo cap). So that's where I get AP for $67 ($60.7 x 1.1) ... Although, now that I think about it, the reason we bumped the cap to $220 was because we added a flex ... so instead of the Yahoo base of 9 starters and 6 bench, we have 10 starters and 6 bench. If you divide $200 by 9 starters you get a value of $22 per starter ... if you divide $220 by 10 starters, you get $22 per starter ... so in the end, I really shouldn't be scaling up that number at all. Somehow after doing this method for 2 years, this JUST occurred to me! Oye. I'm editing the values in the OP to reflect the change. Edited July 22, 2014 by eataylor87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwebs13 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 i really like your league it reminds me of my dynasty league. i would keep: - Adrian Peterson ... keeper cost $45 ... going for $62 in auctions - Le'Veon Bell ... keeper cost $20 ... going for $41 in auctions I know you said you have your qualms about RB but I think solidifying your 2 RBs and working off that is much easier than trying to get a RB in the auction. 45 for AP is a good value IMO. I have no doubts he will be a top 5 RB this year and it would be very hard to let him go for that value. I almost said to keep Nelson but the value for Bell is too good to pass up. Keeping these two RBs leaves you with 155 to work with. I think that's enough to build a solid team and focus on primarily WRs and a backup rb or 2 and then go with RG3. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Good luck! Thanks Bwebs ... the only thing preventing me from going AP/Bell is I did something similar last year and it backfired. I kept AP for $29 and Alfred Morris for $20, thinking I would be set ... neither really panned out for me, at least in terms of living up to their potential. This year, though, I think there's a real crap-shoot outside of the Top 5-6 RBs. I think there are quite a few fringe top 10 guys like Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, CJ Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Zac Stacy, etc. etc. that could be more than serviceable RB1/RB2 types and will be had for relatively cheap. I think Martin is going for $33, Morris $29, etc. I've got a couple months to decide ... but you can see where my anxiety is! I guess I can't go wrong ... I'm just pretty scared of AP's "cliff" at the 29 YO season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 And for whatever reason, in every mock roster I find myself targeting Alfred Morris ($29) and Doug Martin ($33). But in that scenario they'd be my #3/4 RBs and my flex options behind Bell and AP. I would think my RBs would be stacked, but then I'd have to pinch pennies with my WRs, which is the opposite of what I had wanted to do! But if I don't keep AP and I go with Bell/Nelson ... I can roll with Bell/Morris/Martin at RB and then target Julio Jones to pair with Jordy Nelson ... along with Crabtree/Patterson/Floyd/Trent Richardson to be my competition for that 2nd flex spot. It all really comes down to AP and whether or not he's a Top 5 guy this year or ranked between 8-12 ... if he's between 8-12, I can get similar production for about $20-25 in the end. I don't want to pay $45 for a 10-12 ranked RB like AP was last year ... only way I get "value" out of that keep is if he ends up Top 3 ... if that makes sense ... which is why I'm so hesitant on that with him being in his 29-30 year old season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwebs13 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I would keep AP and Bell and go big on WR try and get 1-3 top 15 WRs then grab some flyer rbs like lamar miller, ray rice (should be cheap) stevan jackson (cheap). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Here's where I keep coming back to I guess. I'm really intrigued by the prospect of going after Doug Martin and Alfred Morris. I think one or both can re-gain their 2012 form fairly easily, which would put them at 2nd and 6th in my scoring format in my league at RB that year. Both would be steals if they do get to that level. Martin is going for $33 and Morris for $29. But I am a little nervous relying so heavily on RBs. If I keep Adrian Peterson and Le'Veon Bell ... and am able to acquire Morris and Martin, I'm looking at the possibility of having four Top 10 RBs in a best-case scenario. But that would leave me a little thin at WR. I do want to target Michael Crabtree ($13), Cordarrelle Patterson ($12) and Michael Floyd ($5) ... and be fairly confident that one of those 3 could be a legit WR2. I would probably try to get Jordy Nelson or Julio Jones to be my WR1 in that scenario. But then that leaves me a little high and dry at TE, where I've had Jimmy Graham the past two years and become very spoiled. I could try and get Gronk and trust he is healthy and back to 2011 standards ... or I could go after Jordan Reed ($4) and Zach Ertz ($2) and hope/trust that they'll continue to emerge. I guess I've been burned in the past over going heavy at RB. Edited July 23, 2014 by eataylor87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 If I keep Adrian Peterson for $45 ... and Le'Veon Bell for $20 ... here's a roster I could very realistically build based on how much players are going for, currently, in auction leagues. Their positional rankings in parentheses ... QB: Robert Griffin III - $7 (7) RB: Adrian Peterson - $45 (3) RB: Doug Martin - $33 (11) WR: Jordy Nelson - $34 (7) WR: Michael Floyd - $5 (15) W/R: Alfred Morris - $29 (14) W/R/T: Le'Veon Bell - $20 (9) TE: Jordan Reed - $4 (8) K: Anyone - $1 DEF: Rams - $2 Bench: WR Michael Crabtree - $13 (23) Bench: WR Cordarrelle Patterson - $12 (20) Bench: RB Trent Richardson - $4 (30) Bench: WR Jeremy Maclin - $5 (27) Bench: TE Zach Ertz - $2 (12) Bench: QB Jay Cutler - $2 (14) While I wanted to stay away from loading up at RB, those 5 RBs would be so tantilizing if they could reach their potential ... particularly if Morris/Martin relived 2012 and AP remained a Top 5 RB and Bell replicated what he did last year across a 16 games. And the WRs would have loads of potential for cheap with one strong anchor in Jordy Nelson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eataylor87 Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 (edited) I ended up selling Graham for $15 and keeping Jordy Nelson for $20 and Adrian Peterson for $45. Le'Veon Bell was my first choice but the events of the last week pushed me toward going Jordy. Just less of a risk ... plus it opens me up to get an RB2 that I actually love ... not one that I feel like I "had" to keep. I was going to target Jordy was #1 guy in the draft anyway, so this way I get a guy I love and ditch the risk. I can always re-draft Bell if his cost is right ... but I'm leaning toward my RB2 being Ellington and my RB3 being Rashad Jennings ... and loading up at WR. My starting cap will be $170 ... which should be plenty to land a bunch of other impact guys. Thanks for the advice! Edited August 26, 2014 by eataylor87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.