Draft 7-23-14 results - RBs still the darlings

[DMD]

8 RBs taken in the first round but only 5 in the second. This is pretty representative of the other drafts I have seen as well. With all the RBs in the first round, it plays out like maybe 5 years ago and older in that the #1 pick gets the best RB and then takes (to me) the best QB too. But WR are raided pretty good in the second round.

 

Ellington keeps rising...

 

 

1.1 RB McCoy,L.

1.2 RB Peterson,A.

1.3 RB Charles,J.

1.4 RB Lacy,E.

1.5 WR Johnson,C.

1.6 RB Forte,M.

1.7 RB Ball,M.

1.8 TE Graham,J.

1.9 WR Thomas,D.

1.1 RB Lynch,M.

1.11 RB Bernard,G.

1.12 WR Bryant,D.

 

2.1 WR Green,A.

2.2 WR Jones,J.

2.3 WR Jeffery,A.

2.4 RB Bell,L.

2.5 RB Murray,D.

2.6 RB Foster,A.

2.7 RB Martin,D.

2.8 RB Morris,A.

2.9 WR Marshall,B.

2.1 QB Brees,D.

2.11 WR Nelson,J.

2.12 QB Manning,P.

 

3.1 RB Ellington,A.

3.2 WR Jackson,V.

3.3 RB Spiller,C.

3.4 RB Stacy,Z.

3.5 QB Rodgers,A.

3.6 WR Cobb,R.

3.7 WR Brown,A.

3.8 WR Allen,K.

3.9 TE Thomas,J.

3.1 RB Mathews,R.

3.11 RB Sankey,B.

3.12 RB Johnson,C.

 

4.1 RB Vereen,S.

4.2 RB Gerhart,T.

4.3 QB Stafford,M.

4.4 WR Garcon,P.

4.5 WR Cruz,V.

4.6 QB Foles,N.

4.7 TE Gronkowski,R.

4.8 WR Patterson,C.

4.9 WR Fitzgerald,L.

4.1 WR Harvin,P.

4.11 TE Davis,V.

4.12 WR Johnson,A.

[irish]

I wouldn't be shocked to see Ellington climb into Murray territory in the early-mid 2nd.

[Dolphin_Akie]

Surprised Lynch is falling that far, not seen that happen yet but would love it (picking at #9 in my main league). The 2nd round RBs are mostly in the right place, dont want Murray or Bell in R1. Alfred Morris is my favourite out of that group though.

[Zooty]

Surprised Lynch is falling that far, not seen that happen yet but would love it (picking at #9 in my main league). The 2nd round RBs are mostly in the right place, dont want Murray or Bell in R1. Alfred Morris is my favourite out of that group though.

 

 

That's what I've seen but Lynch and Morris should climb in non-PPR leagues IMO

[stethant]

That RB-QB start for the #1 and #3 spots looked real good until you look at their WR1s - Andre Johnson and Percy Harvin.

 

They both went RB-QB-RB to start so I guess the roster has to give somewhere. If you miss on one of those RBs though you're in a world of hurt.

[BA Baracus]

Surprised Lynch is falling that far, not seen that happen yet but would love it (picking at #9 in my main league). The 2nd round RBs are mostly in the right place, dont want Murray or Bell in R1. Alfred Morris is my favourite out of that group though.

 

 

Yeah...people are crazy to pass on Forte and Lynch for Lacy in a redraft IMO.

[Def.]

Yeah...people are crazy to pass on Forte and Lynch for Lacy in a redraft IMO.

 

 

Por que?

[BA Baracus]

Forte is the centerpiece of that Trestman offense. I wouldn't argue with someone for taking him #1 overall. He has started getting TDs and now and that Bush is gone he should get even more goal line looks. He caught more passes than any RB not named Danny or Pierre. Forte is just an all purpose beast who will never disappear due to game script.

 

I guess I wouldn't argue too hard for Lynch over Lacy, but for me the tie breaker in Lynch's favor is that he is the focal point of the offense and will almost never dissappear for a week. Lacy plays an important role un a pass first offense, but I think there will be weeks where he throws up a 10 for 40 and no TDs that can hurt when they come from a first round pick.

[Avernus]

Forte is the centerpiece of that Trestman offense. I wouldn't argue with someone for taking him #1 overall. He has started getting TDs and now and that Bush is gone he should get even more goal line looks. He caught more passes than any RB not named Danny or Pierre. Forte is just an all purpose beast who will never disappear due to game script.

 

I guess I wouldn't argue too hard for Lynch over Lacy, but for me the tie breaker in Lynch's favor is that he is the focal point of the offense and will almost never dissappear for a week. Lacy plays an important role un a pass first offense, but I think there will be weeks where he throws up a 10 for 40 and no TDs that can hurt when they come from a first round pick.

 

 

Packers made it a point last year that they will alter their philosophy and focus more on the run game to preserve Rodgers more. .

 

I expect a ton of Lacy in the regular season and more passing in the playoffs

[Avernus]

 

 

Yeah...people are crazy to pass on Forte and Lynch for Lacy in a redraft IMO.

 

 

Lacy should go ahead of Lynch....I even recall JUM saying this about Lynch on Twitter recently

 

"#MarshawnLynch 1002 carries in last 3 years, a helluva lot... plus each of his runs are mini-Vietnams, so it's really like 2002. #BustAlert"

 

And if not. ..I think Michael could really get some looks to ease him in to the starting role for next year

[Avernus]

I think we might see Ellington and Stacy hover around the top 10 come mid august. ..

 

Stacy will get run into the ground until he breaks so I would probably handcuff even though I don't subscribe to that theory

[DMD]

No concern about Tre Mason? Rams spent their #2 pick on a RB for some reason.

[Avernus]

No concern about Tre Mason? Rams spent their #2 pick on a RB for some reason.

 

 

I am but I think there will be a lot of carries to go around for the Rams....

 

If Mason beats him out then I will gladly bump him up

[BA Baracus]

With Lynch holding out I will bump Lacy past him. I am starting to like Lacy as maybe the top of the second tier of RBs as I read more about him. I don't see him cracking my top 4 though.

[Avernus]

I have had Lacy, Ball and Bell all ahead of him and the only one I think is debatable is Bell....

[Tripleshot]

Anyone wanting Ellington in the top 10 is welcome to him. I guess in a ppr he's more valuable, but still, top 10?. Can he handle a primary back workload? Can he take the hits?

 

I kind of disagree with Lynch being downgraded because of his number of carries the last three years. The dude doesn't seem to ever get hit squarely and gives more punishment than he takes. If his style of running was going to get him injured, then how did he stay healthy through three years and 1000 touches?

[Avernus]

Anyone wanting Ellington in the top 10 is welcome to him. I guess in a ppr he's more valuable, but still, top 10?. Can he handle a primary back workload? Can he take the hits?

 

I kind of disagree with Lynch being downgraded because of his number of carries the last three years. The dude doesn't seem to ever get hit squarely and gives more punishment than he takes. If his style of running was going to get him injured, then how did he stay healthy through three years and 1000 touches?

 

 

Add 400 touches ro his resume last year and see: what you said about Ellington in the top 10.....even though I said around the top 10 RBs and not in it....which translates to a mid-late 2nd rounder to some people. ..I just took him 3.9 in a mock and he doesn't seem to make it into the 4th when I try to wait...

 

After a preseason game or two he could easily propel into the 2nd round

[irish]

My feeling, Ellington is gonna be a beast this year and outperform his ADP. I wouldn't be shocked if he cracked top 5.

[Avernus]

My feeling, Ellington is gonna be a beast this year and outperform his ADP. I wouldn't be shocked if he cracked top 5.

 

 

If he plays 14 games he will crack the top 5.....but that is the big question for him...can he handle the load?..

 

I think that if he is one of the best RBs after week 4 I may end up trading him for something that I believe is more concrete

[darin3]

Ellington top-5, that's rich. I guess stranger things have happened but i'd be shocked if he finished top-10. Arians is calling him a "bellcow", which is a complete 180 from the "touch limit" they confirmed would still be the case from last season. Can he finish top 10? Top 5? He'd have to stay healthy, Palmer would have to stay upright a whole lot more than last year, and Arians will have to be telling the truth and won't give Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer much work at all. We'll see.

 

As for Lacy.... Lacy owners are going to be ruing the name James Starks this year. I like Lacy, but they are going to try to keep him fresh for the playoffs. A healthy Starks is going to be used more than people may be willing to admit at this point.

[Avernus]

Ellington top-5, that's rich. I guess stranger things have happened but i'd be shocked if he finished top-10. Arians is calling him a "bellcow", which is a complete 180 from the "touch limit" they confirmed would still be the case from last season. Can he finish top 10? Top 5? He'd have to stay healthy, Palmer would have to stay upright a whole lot more than last year, and Arians will have to be telling the truth and won't give Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer much work at all. We'll see.

 

As for Lacy.... Lacy owners are going to be ruing the name James Starks this year. I like Lacy, but they are going to try to keep him fresh for the playoffs. A healthy Starks is going to be used more than people may be willing to admit at this point.

 

Any RB who starts 14 games or more and had the skillset that Ellington has can finish in the top 5. The defense is strong and the offense will have the chance to run quite a bit. ..

 

And I am not as big on Lacy as other people even though Green Bay is running a lot more these days but I don't like Lacy in the long term. .. they will either spell him more than I like or he gets hurt with his run style. ...too much target for defenders to hit

[darin3]

Any RB who starts 14 games or more and had the skillset that Ellington has can finish in the top 5. The defense is strong and the offense will have the chance to run quite a bit. ..

 

And I am not as big on Lacy as other people even though Green Bay is running a lot more these days but I don't like Lacy in the long term. .. they will either spell him more than I like or he gets hurt with his run style. ...too much target for defenders to hit

 

Ellington "gets" to play SF twice and SEA twice. That's 1/4 of his games against top defenses. I understand he'll still be active in the passing game, but 4 games against super-elite defenses isn't what I'd want my RB1 up against. Especially if he's a guy that is one season away from being on a "touch limit". He gained 10 pounds and is now magically a bellcow back?

 

Thanks, but no thanks. I'll let someone else deal with that bag of risks.

 

Edit... silly me, forgot the Rams and their stifling D are also twice a year. 6 games against some of the stoutest defenses in the league. And while we're at it, they play the Chiefs too. Week 14. Followed by STL, SEA and SFO to round out the season.

 

If he miraculously becomes a top 5 or even 10 back, I would be shipping him off by mid-season to avoid that fantasy playoff mess.

 

But who knows, maybe I'm completely wrong.

Edited July 29, 2014 by darin3

[Avernus]

 

 

Ellington "gets" to play SF twice and SEA twice. That's 1/4 of his games against top defenses. I understand he'll still be active in the passing game, but 4 games against super-elite defenses isn't what I'd want my RB1 up against. Especially if he's a guy that is one season away from being on a "touch limit". He gained 10 pounds and is now magically a bellcow back?

 

Thanks, but no thanks. I'll let someone else deal with that bag of risks.

 

Edit... silly me, forgot the Rams and their stifling D are also twice a year. 6 games against some of the stoutest defenses in the league. And while we're at it, they play the Chiefs too. Week 14. Followed by STL, SEA and SFO to round out the season.

 

If he miraculously becomes a top 5 or even 10 back, I would be shipping him off by mid-season to avoid that fantasy playoff mess.

 

But who knows, maybe I'm completely wrong.

 

 

Oh....I thought he was best suited to draft at RB2 especially when I said he is about top 15....

 

All I am saying based on volume if he played that many games he would finish around the top 5

 

You also forget the fact that he plays the NFC east, AFC west...Lions and Falcons...only one good defense out of those games. ... he has 7 unfavorable matchups and 9 rather lucrative ones

[Mustangt125]

What did he do against SF and SEA last year?

 

That same argument gets used against Stacy, yet he did very well considering against SF and SEA.

[Avernus]

@SF 7 carries 56 yds 1TD 5 rec 36 yds

SEA 3 carries 3 yds 2 rec 10 yds

@SEA 15 carries 64 yds 2 rec 8 yds

SF 9 carries 30 ydd 3 rec 12 yds

 

He didn't get double digit carries in a game until week 8... however he did have 42 receptions and if he can build on that then he can be rather productive in PPR leagues