This years RB crop seems weak

[Flip_Side]

I'll be honest, I haven't taken fantasy football seriously the past 2 years or so due to relocation/job issues. But now I'm finally stable and have some cash to compete in a few leagues this year.

 

I'm in a couple PPR leagues and after doing some research it seems outside of the top 5 RBs such as Charles, Mccoy, Peterson, Forte, Lynch there isn't much to invest in.

 

I don't want anything to do with Lacy, and am surprised to see him as #4 RB on most lists. I like Giovani Bernard, Ellington, and Spiller but this years draft looks too easy for me to try and snag a Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Top tier WR combo with my first 2 picks which would leave me devastated trying to figure out my RB situation in the later rounds. Who are some guys to keep an eye on?

[lennykravitz2004]

Good observation(s).

 

Maybe not much help right away, but I would not be surprised if Tre Mason in STL starts getting a ton of work second half of the season. Contrary to what's being reported from NYG (RBBC), I think Jennings could be/will end up as a very solid RB2.

[irish]

Guys not on your list that should have a solid season "worth investing in" -

 

Le'veon Bell, Monte Ball, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy (I know you mentioned him but he'll be a beast and deserving of the early draft spot), Trent Richardson (i think he has a rebound season), DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Zac Stacy, Bishop Sankey, Shane Vereen , Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart and I do love Bernard, Ellington and to a slightly lesser degree Spiller.

Edited July 24, 2014 by irish

[Flip_Side]

Guys not on your list that should have a solid season "worth investing in" -

 

Le'veon Bell, Monte Ball, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy (I know you mentioned him but he'll be a beast and deserving of the early draft spot), Trent Richardson (i think he has a rebound season), DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Zac Stacy, Bishop Sankey, Shane Vereen , Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart and I do love Bernard, Ellington and to a slightly lesser degree Spiller.

 

 

I just can't see myself drafting any of those names listed above as my #1 RB if I don't get the top tier that I mentioned in my initial post. Basically if I'm not gifted a top 6 or so pick I'm screwed at RB in my eyes, because I'll for sure Go Calvin with a later pick in the first round over the names listed above

[Dolphin_Akie]

Too many RBs in RBBC situations makes them weak propositions in fantasy.

 

Plenty of good options for a late round punt though.

[Flip_Side]

I do love Sankey however, but so does everyone else with common sense and knows somewhat of what they're doing. I just don't want to get stuck with a Gerhart or Bernard as my #1 RB. First world problems

[Flip_Side]

Too many RBs in RBBC situations makes them weak propositions in fantasy.

 

Plenty of good options for a late round punt though.

 

 

So would you just stock up on top WR and mix with a top tier QB/TE and wait to draft RBs in later rounds with upside? That's my draft strategy at the moment but leaves me vulnerable

[Dolphin_Akie]

So would you just stock up on top WR and mix with a top tier QB/TE and wait to draft RBs in later rounds with upside? That's my draft strategy at the moment but leaves me vulnerable

 

 

Obviously depends a lot on the league you're in but I think it means you're better off trying to lock your stud RB down early. If you're top 5 you take the likes of McCoy, AP, Charles, Forte etc but not obsess about getting one if you're picking #10 and look at Megatron then a flurry of 2nd and 3rd RBs.

[Avernus]

In a PPR you can find some gems that catch well...

 

I like Ball, Ellington, Stacy, Sankey, Jennings and Bernard too.... also Vereen Sproles who ate not starters or every down backs. .. (even though Vereen is the starter apparently. .. we know better)

[Papa Deuce]

I do love Sankey however, but so does everyone else with common sense and knows somewhat of what they're doing. I just don't want to get stuck with a Gerhart or Bernard as my #1 RB. First world problems

 

 

Yeah, but I don't think he will be a stud in year 1. He just happens to be in the best position to do well.

[QFFL]

I don't think they are weak. J Hill and Hyde both are very good RBs, they were just not drafted in an ideal situation. You probably need a little patience with them. On the other hand Sankey seems to have an easier way for more carries, but lots of people have doubt in his talent.

[BA Baracus]

Several guys on Irish's list will do just fine as RB1. If you are drafting late in the first then you are early in the 2nd. That is a great place to go stud WR then one of those RBs. IMO that would be a great start.

[Zooty]

So would you just stock up on top WR and mix with a top tier QB/TE and wait to draft RBs in later rounds with upside? That's my draft strategy at the moment but leaves me vulnerable

 

 

I don't think that there is any strategy that won't leave you vulnerable at some position. If there is then I haven't figured it out after 20 years.

 

Best I have is to wait on QBs, load up on RB and WR earlier and hope you find a couple sleepers in rounds 6-10 or so

Edited July 25, 2014 by Zooty

[irish]

 

 

I don't think that there is any strategy that won't leave you vulnerable at some position. If there is then I haven't figured it out after 20 years.

 

Best I have is to wait on QBs, load up on RB and WR earlier and hope you find a couple sleepers in rounds 6-10 or so

 

 

The only way you end up stacked at every position is to get lucky. I remember the separate years when both Ray Rice and Foster broke out and they could be had at a bargain compared to how they performed. Now if you filled needs at WR and TE, another RB spot and then got these RBs in the 4th or later, you struck gold. That breakout player had to exist each year and you have to play your cards right to get him. This year it's...

Edited July 25, 2014 by irish

[Flip_Side]

I don't think that there is any strategy that won't leave you vulnerable at some position. If there is then I haven't figured it out after 20 years.

 

Best I have is to wait on QBs, load up on RB and WR earlier and hope you find a couple sleepers in rounds 6-10 or so

 

 

My past strategy used to be to go with RB-RB-WR-WR and draft a decent QB. Things have changed now with most leagues going to PPR and so many stud QBs now. RB's have basically dropped off my radar unless McCoy or Charles lands in my lap. I think I'd actually choose Megatron over any other RB's but those two

[irish]

My past strategy used to be to go with RB-RB-WR-WR and draft a decent QB. Things have changed now with most leagues going to PPR and so many stud QBs now. RB's have basically dropped off my radar unless McCoy or Charles lands in my lap. I think I'd actually choose Megatron over any other RB's but those two

 

 

Sound strategy but seriously consider adding Forte to that mix. However, I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple others jump up in status to their level this season.

[Delicious_bass]

 

 

I don't think that there is any strategy that won't leave you vulnerable at some position. If there is then I haven't figured it out after 20 years.

 

Best I have is to wait on QBs, load up on RB and WR earlier and hope you find a couple sleepers in rounds 6-10 or so

 

Agreed. Every player an owner drafts comes with the opportunity cost of the player he/she could have had at other positions or even the same position.

 

An observation I have made is there is no foolproof strategy or silver bullet. Whichever strategy/tactic an owner chooses to go with can succeed or fail. It comes down to getting the right players and those are (obviously) the ones who score the most points.

[silverback]

;This year it's...

 

 

WELL? For God's sake man don't leave us hanging!

Edited July 26, 2014 by silverback

[irish]

WELL? For God's sake man don't leave us hanging!

 

 

Here's a post I made in the Jamal Charles thread...

 

 

Let's consider everyone starting with a clean slate of health (and we all know that some have a greater propensity toward getting hurt), Charles, McCoy and Forte are Top 3.

 

Who joins them (PPR)?

 

-Monte Ball - If he can fill Moreno's shoes and bit even a bit better runner, than he's right there and should be with the Top 3.

 

-Eddie Lacy - If he doesn't miss basically 2 games, he's sitting at #5 with Lynch last season. A full season, with Rodgers back and he just might be sitting with the Top 3.

 

-Demarco Murray - He also missed 2 games and with his average pts per game, if he plays an entire season, he's Top 4 as well.

 

-Adrian Peterson - He was Top 8 in pts per game and also missed 2 games. If he plays a full he's sitting Top 5 with Lynch last year. Having Patterson being more matured and attracting more attention on the outside will help but we'll see what happens with the QB position.

 

-Reggie Bush - He was Top 6 in avg. pts per game and #7 at the RB position even after missing 2 games. He plays a full, and he's right there with the Top 5. Even if he doesn't, having him ranking near the top 5 when he is playing and having a decent backup to covering the couple games he misses works out well.

 

-Le'Veon Bell - Bell was top 9 last year in avg. pts per game and top 15 even after missing 3 games. I think with more consistent O-line play and another year under his belt that he could also make a push toward the top. Love this guy!

 

-Giovani Bernard - Bernard is another guy a really like and sure, he'll be sharing touched with Hill, but again, another year under his belt and I think he'll be even more dangerous. He has ridiculous talent and he's the one RB I think who can make a run at the very top if he's used as a 3-down RB with Hill only providing breathers. **** Love this kid!

 

-Andre Ellington - Here's another player about to make a HUGE jump! He gets an uptick in catches, carries and GL touches and he stays healthy doing it all...we have ourselves another player like Bernard with a real shot to join the Big 3 but certainly settling in the Top 10. 1,275 rushing yards 7 TDs, 45 rec 430 rec. yards 3 TDs = 275.5 pts and Top 6 for last year up from 26.

 

-Zac Stacy - I know Tre Mason. However, I think Stacy has shown enough to be the top dog at least for this season and possibly beyond. After not doing anything for 4 weeks last season, he exploded onto the scene. I thin at the very least he repeats last season just spread over 16 games which would place him within the Top 20. However, if he gets 275 carries 1,100 rush yards 7 TDs, 40 rec for 220 yards and 2 TDs = 225 pts and good enough for Top baker's dozen status.

 

-Doug Martin - This is a much trickier prospect with Sims and Mike James returning. However, I still see Martin getting 240 carries for 1,105 rushing yards and 7 TDs, 35 rec for 335 yards and 1 TD = 227 pts and in competition with Stacy in the baker's dozen.

 

-Arian Foster - I believe without Tate or real competition for touches, if he stays healthy, we'll be looking at the Foster of yester year. 305 carries for 1,225 yds and 9 TDs, 45 rec for 300 yds and 2 TDs = 263.5 pts and right back in the top 5.

 

Others I don't have the time to do now but will be in the running for Top 5-15 status -

 

Lynch

Spiller

Gerhart

Morris

Vereen

Chris Johnson

J. Bell

Richardson

Mathews

R. Jennings

 

Outside chances to Sankey and Tate.

 

So looking at the list above, a couple of guys that are being drafted around the 4th or later as of now that could perform like Top 5-10 RBs and really put you over the top are -

 

Toby Gerhart (but he's been on the rise)

Reggie Bush (probably won't happen)

CJ Spiller (again probably won't fall out of the 3rd)

Ellington (again probably won't make it past 3rd though)

Stacy

Chris Johnson should have a very nice year.

Vereen

Sankey

R. Jennings

Mathews

Richardson

Tate

Ray Rice (could be HUGE, since he's only suspended for 2 games)

Joique Bell should have another very solid year, both he and Bush finished in the Top 15 last year - Bush #7, Bell #14)

Moreno (really slipping and could pay off)

Carlos Hyde (great flyer in later rounds even for the non-Gore owner)

Also taking flyers in deeper leagues on Terrance West, Tre Mason, and/or Devonta Freeman is a solid plan in case the #1s on those teams falter, these guys would be primed for big roles.

 

 

**Just to name a few

[Thews40]

An observation I have made is there is no foolproof strategy or silver bullet. Whichever strategy/tactic an owner chooses to go with can succeed or fail. It comes down to getting the right players and those are (obviously) the ones who score the most points.

 

The strategerie I've found to work best is to know what your opponents are going to and mock what happens if you switch to plan B, which is to do the opposite. Most drafters will pull when someone they didn't think would fall to them does, so they succumb to the little box in the LH corner that tells them who they should draft.

 

Let's say you are in a 6 point passing TD league. Not taking a QB early is a hugh mistake IMO, as claiming "QB's are deep this year" really isn't true. Manning, Brees and Rodgers are the locks. If you're choosing between a lesser team's QB every week, you'll hit sometimes, but you need to hit most times. NFL teams that score real points every week score more fantasy points. Are the Raiders for real this year? How about the Bills? IMO, teams like KC are not going to measure up and are not worth the risk. The Broncos are going to the SB again (again IMHO), and there will be a lot of points scored if Manning stays on his feet. What if he doesn't and you bank on it... then you lose. Banking on the Browns to score points is a bigger mistake, because if they do, no one saw it comming.

 

The moral of the story is history. How many first round picks have turned into busts? I'm not factoring in injury, as that can happen to any player, but if a player isn't 100% (Gronk), or holding out (Lynch), or unhappy (AJ, V. Davis etc), you're managing risk... don't deal with risk when you don't have to.

 

The end result will be a .500 team if you follow the cheatsheets... think outside the box and study your scoring system with past data. The guys that draft 4 RB's before a QB or WR have no clue IMO. KoolAid may taste good, but RB Koolaid is at least 5 years stale.

Edited July 27, 2014 by Thews40

[irish]

 

The strategerie I've found to work best is to know what your opponents are going to and mock what happens if you switch to plan B, which is to do the opposite. Most drafters will pull when someone they didn't think would fall to them does, so they succomb to the little box in the LH corner that tells them who they should draft.

 

Let's say you are in a 6 point passing TD league. Not taking a QB early is a hugh mistake IMO, as claiming "QB's are deep this year" really isn't true. Manning, Brees and Rodgers are the locks. If you're choosing between a lesser team's QB every week, you'll hit sometimes, but you need to hit most times. NFL teams that score real points every week score more fantasy points. Are the Raiders for real this year? How about the Bills? IMO, teams like KC are not going to measure up and are not worth the risk. The Broncos are going to the SB again (again IMHO), and there will be a lot of points scored if Manning stays on his feet. What if he doesn't and you bank on it... then you lose. Banking on the Browns to score points is a bigger mistake, because if they do, no one saw it comming.

 

The moral of the story is history. How many first round picks have turned into busts? I'm not factoring in injury, as that can happen to any player, but if a player isn't 100% (Gronk), or holding out (Lynch), or unhappy (AJ, V. Davis etc), you're managing risk... don't deal with risk when you don't have to.

 

The end result will be a .500 team if you follow the cheatsheets... think outside the box and study your scoring system with past data. The guys that draft 4 RB's before a QB or WR have no clue IMO. KoolAid may taste good, but RB Koolaid is at least 5 years stale.

 

 

I understand it's your opinion but I think drafting a QB in a 6 pt passing td league is a mistake. Why not wait and grab guys like Romo, Rivers, RG3, Luck, Foles, Stafford, Brady, or Ryan and stock up elsewhere? Be solid at WR, RB and TE and than not suffer much of a drop-off with one or two of the QBs mentioned above.

Edited July 27, 2014 by irish

[Thews40]

I understand it's your opinion but I think drafting a QB in a 6 pt passing td league is a mistake. Why not wait and grab guys like Romo, Rivers, RG3, Luck, Foles, Stafford, Brady, or Ryan and stock up elsewhere? Be solid at WR, RB and TE and than not suffer much of a drop-off with one or two of the QBs mentioned above.

 

Take you advice and wind up at .500.

[irish]

Take you advice and wind up at .500.

 

 

Or making the playoffs in 5 out of 9 leagues last year, winning the Title in 4 of them and always taking home more money than I put out every year since I started playing in 1989. Don't be defensive over the fact that I have a different opinion. It's okay, that's what makes this hobby fun. You can still like your opinion better and not have to attempt to insult others when they disagree.

Edited July 27, 2014 by irish

[Thews40]

Or making the playoffs in 5 out of 9 leagues last year, winning the Title in 4 of them and always taking home more money than I put out every year since I started playing in 1989. Don't be defensive over the fact that I have a different opinion. It's okay, that's what makes this hobby fun. You can still like your opinion better and not have to attempt to insult others when they disagree.

 

In the Huddle Ladder, you have failed to break .500 for six years. That metric is evidenced by playing against people that know what they're doing. Again, follow your advice and wind up a .500 or less team. Do you want to win, or just finish in the middle?

[irish]

In the Huddle Ladder, you have failed to break .500 for six years. That metric is evidenced by playing against people that know what they're doing. Again, follow your advice and wind up a .500 or less team. Do you want to win, or just finish in the middle?

 

 

You're going by 1 league that I'm in that I place the least importance on. I play in at least 8 others of which one is 32 teams and 2 others are 16 teams and in the 32 team league I missed winning the Title, in the Title game.

 

I know my stuff and for you to think otherwise is silly. Hell, the 2 years that I was in the Huddle Ladder with you I won the Title and finished better than you both years. My record against you is 2-2, so I guess against me you're no better than a .500 team either. Funny how that worked, huh?

 

Not too mention that over the last 4 years my life has gone through some major changes with divorce, major family fall out and then remarriage, purchasing of a new house and the birth a newborn and through that all I've still experienced plenty of success always taking home more than a shelled out. But sure, I guess if we go by "1" of my leagues than I'm a .500 player.