No QB in the first round - why not?

[Shorttynaz]

I've never been a fan of taking a QB early (first or second round), but I decided to do some research a little into my main yearly redraft.. 10 teams, PPR, 6 point passing TD's, 1 point for 20 yards passing.

 

What I found kind of goes against taking a QB early. I went 4 years back..

 

2013: League champion (drafted Peyton Manning - 7th overall pick in our league)

2012: League champion (drafted Drew Brees - 4th overall pick in our league)

2011: League champion (drafted Drew Brees - 9th overall pick in our league)

2010: League champion (drafted Tom Brady - 10th overall pick in our league)

 

So.. Maybe this is a small sample size, but for the past 4 years, the league champion had selected a QB with his 1st overall selection. The reason I decided to look into this is cause I'm the lucky winner of the 10th overall selection. I'm toying with the idea of taking Brees if he's available there. I know Manning wont because the guy with the 5th overall pick is a Donkey's die hard and has the worlds biggest man crush on him. I've been in this league for 13 years now and we all know what we're doing. Those iffy/questionable picks generally don't start happening till round 5-6ish. I am one of the old school RB/RB guys with my first two picks, but looking over the past few years, that strategy doesn't win championships. I can't see passing him up - on top of having (on paper) one of the league's best schedules for a QB.

 

This really isn't one of those cheesey "who should I take" threads, but one to play devils advocate to the guys (who, like me up until this year) are VERY against taking a QB in the 1st round..

[Shorttynaz]

I know people say you can't win your league in the 1st round, but you sure can lose it. Seems every year about half of the first round picks (usually RB's) don't live up to 3rd or 4th round stats. For example, last year I took T-Rich in the first round. I thought that with a year of practice with the Browns O-line, getting to know the playbook - I thought he was gonna be a stud. I took him 4th overall, right behind Doug Martin. In week 5, I traded T-Rich for Doug Martin. I played Martin for weeks 5 & 6, and then fortunate for me, I traded him going into week 7 for Arian Foster (8th overall pick in our league). What did I have? I had 3 first round RB's who were all busts.

[Zooty]

The difference between those QBs and one you could have taken later probably isn't the difference between who won the league. In all cases were they the 1st QB off the board?

 

Oddly I'm in a MFL1 draft right now at pick 5.01. Here are all of the QBs so far

 

 

3.03 27. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Mon Aug 11 4:02:35 p.m. ET 2014

3.05 29. Manning, Peyton DEN QB Mon Aug 11 4:12:18 p.m. ET 2014

 

That's it. Brees still on the board.

Edited August 12, 2014 by Zooty

[Zooty]

Some light reading

 

http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

[Shorttynaz]

The difference between those QBs and one you could have taken later probably isn't the difference between who won the league. In all cases were they the 1st QB off the board?

The only one that wasn't the first QB off the board was 2010. Peyton Manning was taken 9th overall - 1 pick before Tom Brady. And the guy who took Manning was the runner up - made the dance, but lost the championship game. In 2012, Aaron Rogers was taken 10th overall. That team made it to the 2nd round of the playoff's, lost to the team who had Brees.

[keggerz]

I've never been a fan of taking a QB early (first or second round), but I decided to do some research a little into my main yearly redraft.. 10 teams, PPR, 6 point passing TD's, 1 point for 20 yards passing.

 

What I found kind of goes against taking a QB early. I went 4 years back..

 

2013: League champion (drafted Peyton Manning - 7th overall pick in our league)

2012: League champion (drafted Drew Brees - 4th overall pick in our league)

2011: League champion (drafted Drew Brees - 9th overall pick in our league)

2010: League champion (drafted Tom Brady - 10th overall pick in our league)

 

So.. Maybe this is a small sample size, but for the past 4 years, the league champion had selected a QB with his 1st overall selection. The reason I decided to look into this is cause I'm the lucky winner of the 10th overall selection. I'm toying with the idea of taking Brees if he's available there. I know Manning wont because the guy with the 5th overall pick is a Donkey's die hard and has the worlds biggest man crush on him. I've been in this league for 13 years now and we all know what we're doing. Those iffy/questionable picks generally don't start happening till round 5-6ish. I am one of the old school RB/RB guys with my first two picks, but looking over the past few years, that strategy doesn't win championships. I can't see passing him up - on top of having (on paper) one of the league's best schedules for a QB.

 

This really isn't one of those cheesey "who should I take" threads, but one to play devils advocate to the guys (who, like me up until this year) are VERY against taking a QB in the 1st round..

When you go back and look at each of those champions can you go back and subtract their QBs points in each of their wins? See how many games they still would have won and what the point avg was on the games they would have lost. I'm honestly curious.

[keggerz]

Some light reading

 

http://www.thehuddle...sy-football.php

"Light" reading...you're funny.

[MTSuper7]

I am starting to come around on the idea of taking a stud QB with a late first round pick or early 2nd. You definitely want a difference maker with that pick. We usually have 1 or 2 QBs go in the early rounds in my main local depending on the year. I'm guessing Peyton will be a top 10 pick. Not sure how much after that Brees and/or Rodgers go. A lot also has to do with what you can expect from the draft. My main local is one in which there seem to be value picks all over the place, so I'd be more inclined to go QB early if you think you will be able to take advantage of RB and WR value slipping to you in the league. If you are playing with nearly all really savvy owners, it's a lot riskier.

Edited August 12, 2014 by MTSuper7

[davesworld23]

Stud WRs go quick the rest have questions or are wr3s

[Avernus]

In my league where I have 6pt TD'S acrid the board with bonuses for distance I have had the same trend for about a decade and I have even gone QB 1st only because I had a few RB's that I loved as sleepers later that I knew I could get. ..

 

This year I don't have as many RBs later line I have in previous years. ..

 

This would mean a combination of Gio and /or Ellington and/or Jennings and/or Sankey which would be too risky for me....

 

And drafting at the 6 spot almost guarantees me Ball...

 

Previous years there have been less RBBC....it seems like it is a growing monster that you almost have to use it to your advantage later on....

[stethant]

I am starting to come around on the idea of taking a stud QB with a late first round pick or early 2nd. You definitely want a difference maker with that pick. We usually have 1 or 2 QBs go in the early rounds in my main local depending on the year. I'm guessing Peyton will be a top 10 pick. Not sure how much after that Brees and/or Rodgers go. A lot also has to do with what you can expect from the draft. My main local is one in which there seem to be value picks all over the place, so I'd be more inclined to go QB early if you think you will be able to take advantage of RB and WR value slipping to you in the league. If you are playing with nearly all really savvy owners, it's a lot riskier.

 

Pretty much this.

 

I was going to post about how it's important to know the value of QB relative to other positions, and how that value decays from the 10th to 20th player at a given position, etc, etc, but at the end of the day if you think you'll be better at finding values in the draft than your leaguemates after the first few rounds then go get that QB1 at one of the least volatile FFL positions.

 

I haven't taken a 1st or 2nd round QB in years but this year I find myself thinking about it more and more.

[Shorttynaz]

I just see it as maximizing the pick. I'm gonna be in a spot where I can take the 6th RB off the board, take the 2nd or 3rd WR, or I can take an elite player from the position that scores far and away the most points. We too have yardage bonuses in this league, along with 6 point passing TD's. The commish has tried as best he can to even out the playing field across all positions, but as the QB's have a yardage bonus, all RB's / WR's have is PPR - if you have a QB who throws for a lot of yards, the yardage bonus is greater than a point per reception. What is that bonus? Breaking the 300 yard mark nets you 5 bonus points. Every 50 yards after that is 2 bonus points. So.. 350 passing yards and 2 TD's is 36 points. 17 for 350 yards, 5 for 300 yard bonus, 2 for 350 yard bonus, and 12 for 2 TDs. Have a RB with 70 yards rushing, 3 catches for 30 yards, and a TD, that's 20 points. I know the scoring is all relevant to the position. Brees vs Rodgers vs Manning might not be that far apart. But Brees vs someone like Matt Ryan or Cam Newton, On a week in - week out basis, Brees IMO is gonna score more points than those 2nd tier players - moreso than a 2nd tier RB will score over a 3rd tier RB.

 

No QB is safe as they're all just one lineman away from blowing his assignment and taking a bad hit from a rabid defender - but if I have the chance to take an elite level player at one position or take 2 2nd tier players at other positions, why not. I know every team can't be strong at every position - it's easier to find RB's and WR's through free agency as the season goes on.

Edited August 12, 2014 by Shorttynaz

[Big Country]

 

The QB value is a function of league dynamics. That;s why no one SHOULD blanketly say that a QB is not a good value in the 1st round. In some leagues, they certainly are, in many leagues they definitely are not.

 

 

Without knowing the dynamics of your leagues scoring, lineup requirements and draft tendencies of your fellow owners, it is impossible to say if a QB is a good value. The fact that the past 4 champions took QB early doesn;t say much, as it takes more than that to win a league - did they also hit on the 5th-6th round RB that played top 10 (ala Moreno last year, and he was usually taken even later), did they get lucky with the schedule and play a bunch of opponents on their off week, etc.

 

 

Now, from what you have described, your scoring system may be set up in a way that there is great separation at the QB position due to volume of points (you see this in PPC scoring and also when QB yardage scoring is something like 1 per 10. 6 pt TDs don't really affect values all that much). In these cases, it definitely makes sense to grab a QB early, as they are set up such that as your QB goes, so goes your team (essentially the opposite of the Zero QB Theorem).

 

 

 

Basically, all that to say that no, this is not the year to go QB early, not is it the year to wait on QB, It is no different than any other year - do the analysis on your projections, calculate your expected player values, and draft accordingly to maximize that value. For some leagues, that means taking a QB in the first round, for others, that may mean waiting until the 9th or 10th round to take a QB.

 

 

There is no cookie cutter answer, and anyone that tries to sell you a cookie cutter answer is full of it.

[jdilbeck]

 

The QB value is a function of league dynamics. That;s why no one SHOULD blanketly say that a QB is not a good value in the 1st round. In some leagues, they certainly are, in many leagues they definitely are not.

 

 

Without knowing the dynamics of your leagues scoring, lineup requirements and draft tendencies of your fellow owners, it is impossible to say if a QB is a good value. The fact that the past 4 champions took QB early doesn;t say much, as it takes more than that to win a league - did they also hit on the 5th-6th round RB that played top 10 (ala Moreno last year, and he was usually taken even later), did they get lucky with the schedule and play a bunch of opponents on their off week, etc.

 

 

Now, from what you have described, your scoring system may be set up in a way that there is great separation at the QB position due to volume of points (you see this in PPC scoring and also when QB yardage scoring is something like 1 per 10. 6 pt TDs don't really affect values all that much). In these cases, it definitely makes sense to grab a QB early, as they are set up such that as your QB goes, so goes your team (essentially the opposite of the Zero QB Theorem).

 

 

 

Basically, all that to say that no, this is not the year to go QB early, not is it the year to wait on QB, It is no different than any other year - do the analysis on your projections, calculate your expected player values, and draft accordingly to maximize that value. For some leagues, that means taking a QB in the first round, for others, that may mean waiting until the 9th or 10th round to take a QB.

 

 

There is no cookie cutter answer, and anyone that tries to sell you a cookie cutter answer is full of it.

 

I couldn't agree with that answer more Big Country

[Thews40]

In a 6 point passing TD league Peyton Manning is gold and worth it. There's risk, but IMO it's minimal. Brees is money as is Rodgers, but after that it's hit miss. Luck can be had later as can Kapernick, but I like Kapernick's value where he's being drafted. Newton is going to bust this year based on the WR's. IMO, Manning in the first round is solid.

[Big Country]

In a 6 point passing TD league Peyton Manning is gold and worth it. There's risk, but IMO it's minimal. Brees is money as is Rodgers, but after that it's hit miss. Luck can be had later as can Kapernick, but I like Kapernick's value where he's being drafted. Newton is going to bust this year based on the WR's. IMO, Manning in the first round is solid.

 

 

6 pt. TD does not make much of a difference unless you think he is realistically going to throw so many more TDs than everyone else again... and even then, 4 or 6 pt TDs wouldn' matter, it would be volume of TDs.

 

Let's say 40 TDs is a more reasonable prediction for Manning. From 2010-2013, the #12 QB averaged right around 24 passing TDs - a difference of 16 TDs over the course of the season, or 1 TD per game. THe change from 4 to 6 point TDs thus was worth an estimated 2 PPG between the #1 QB and the #12 QB - a decent bump, but not sure that it's enough to warrant a "He is Gold" classification, especially considering you can get that 12th QB in the 9th round or later.. I guarantee the expectation in production for a first round RB or WR vs. a 9th round RB or WR is still greater than the difference in expectation between a Manning and the #12 QB, even with 6 pts per TD pass

[BA Baracus]

I just see it as maximizing the pick. I'm gonna be in a spot where I can take the 6th RB off the board, take the 2nd or 3rd WR, or I can take an elite player from the position that scores far and away the most points. We too have yardage bonuses in this league, along with 6 point passing TD's. The commish has tried as best he can to even out the playing field across all positions, but as the QB's have a yardage bonus, all RB's / WR's have is PPR - if you have a QB who throws for a lot of yards, the yardage bonus is greater than a point per reception. What is that bonus? Breaking the 300 yard mark nets you 5 bonus points. Every 50 yards after that is 2 bonus points. So.. 350 passing yards and 2 TD's is 36 points. 17 for 350 yards, 5 for 300 yard bonus, 2 for 350 yard bonus, and 12 for 2 TDs. Have a RB with 70 yards rushing, 3 catches for 30 yards, and a TD, that's 20 points. I know the scoring is all relevant to the position. Brees vs Rodgers vs Manning might not be that far apart. But Brees vs someone like Matt Ryan or Cam Newton, On a week in - week out basis, Brees IMO is gonna score more points than those 2nd tier players - moreso than a 2nd tier RB will score over a 3rd tier RB.

 

No QB is safe as they're all just one lineman away from blowing his assignment and taking a bad hit from a rabid defender - but if I have the chance to take an elite level player at one position or take 2 2nd tier players at other positions, why not. I know every team can't be strong at every position - it's easier to find RB's and WR's through free agency as the season goes on.

 

 

More leagues should do this kind of scoring. Typical scoring systems have a sort of cheat code built in to them that allows you to nearly replicate the performance of an elite QB by just drafting a mediocre QB who can run. It really devalues the position in a way that IMO, takes something away from the game.

[Avernus]

 

 

More leagues should do this kind of scoring. Typical scoring systems have a sort of cheat code built in to them that allows you to nearly replicate the performance of an elite QB by just drafting a mediocre QB who can run. It really devalues the position in a way that IMO, takes something away from the game.

 

Exactly I don't understand 4pts per TD plus I am all for awarding bonus points for 300+ passing yards. ...

 

My old system that I had on sportsline allowed for bonuses when a player performed or of position. ... so if a QB ran the ball or caught it then it was 2pts per 10 rush/rec yds and the TD's started at 9 pts up to 12pts depending on the length of the TD....

 

basically for QB's it was...

10 pts @ 200 pass yds

1pt per 10 pass yds after 200 was reached

Pass TD 6-9 pts depending on the distance

Rush/rec yds 2pts per 10 yds

Rush/rec TD 9-12 pts depending on the distance

[BA Baracus]

In a 6 point passing TD league Peyton Manning is gold and worth it. There's risk, but IMO it's minimal. Brees is money as is Rodgers, but after that it's hit miss. Luck can be had later as can Kapernick, but I like Kapernick's value where he's being drafted. Newton is going to bust this year based on the WR's. IMO, Manning in the first round is solid.

 

Newton's WR's are no worse than last year, or any year except maybe when he was a rookie (when Smith still has gas in the tank). Whether he busts or not (which is unlikely as an 8th round pick) will be determined by whether or not the ankle keeps his rushing stats down.

[Avernus]

 

 

Newton's WR's are no worse than last year, or any year except maybe when he was a rookie (when Smith still has gas in the tank). Whether he busts or not (which is unlikely as an 8th round pick) will be determined by whether or not the ankle keeps his rushing stats down.

 

 

Agreed. ..Newton is tremendously under valued and if they really are running 2TE sets then I think he can be a big surprise at QB..

[Thews40]

Agreed. ..Newton is tremendously under valued and if they really are running 2TE sets then I think he can be a big surprise at QB..

 

One guy can't win a game by himself. It would be a surprise to me if Newton finishes in the top 12. You may be right, but I'd rather have P. Rivers based on value.

[MikesVikes]

I did a few MFL10 drafts and I was surprised on how everyone sat on taking a QB in both if these. That did include myself. There are just too many decent options available right now. No sense of urgency. You could've gotten a decent QB that you could start in the final two rounds of each draft.

[MikesVikes]

I did a few MFL10 drafts and I was surprised on how everyone sat on taking a QB in both if these. That did include myself. There are just too many decent options available right now. No sense of urgency. You could've gotten a decent QB that you could start in the final two rounds of each draft.

[Zooty]

I did a few MFL10 drafts and I was surprised on how everyone sat on taking a QB in both if these. That did include myself. There are just too many decent options available right now. No sense of urgency. You could've gotten a decent QB that you could start in the final two rounds of each draft.

 

 

you can say that again. Just finishing one and I thought I got great value with Peyton as the #2 QB in the 3rd. Very wrong..... So much for me changing it up. I'll go back to drafting one maybe 2 late ones

Pick Ovr Selection

3.03 27 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

3.05 29 Manning, Peyton DEN QB

 

5.02 50 Brees, Drew NOS QB

6.05 65 Luck, Andrew IND QB

7.06 78 Stafford, Matthew DET QB

8.12 96 Griffin III, Robert WAS QB

9.04 100 Ryan, Matt ATL QB

9.06 102 Foles, Nick PHI QB

9.07 103 Newton, Cam CAR QB

9.11 107 Brady, Tom NEP QB

9.12 108 Cutler, Jay CHI QB

10.04 112 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB

10.05 113 Wilson, Russell SEA QB

11.08 128 Romo, Tony DAL QB

12.02 134 Dalton, Andy CIN QB

12.04 136 Rivers, Philip SDC QB

12.08 140 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

 

13.04 148 Smith, Alex KCC QB

13.07 151 Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB

13.12 156 Palmer, Carson ARI QB

14.03 159 Manning, Eli NYG QB

14.09 165 Manziel, Johnny CLE QB ®

14.1 166 Flacco, Joe BAL QB

15.02 170 Bradford, Sam STL QB

15.1 178 Smith, Geno NYJ QB

15.12 180 Locker, Jake TEN QB

16.02 182 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

17.01 193 McCown, Josh TBB QB

18.03 207 Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB ®

 

 

In my other I got Brady at 10.11 and Romo at 11.02

Edited August 14, 2014 by Zooty

[Jackass]

6 pt. TD does not make much of a difference unless you think he is realistically going to throw so many more TDs than everyone else again... and even then, 4 or 6 pt TDs wouldn' matter, it would be volume of TDs.

 

Let's say 40 TDs is a more reasonable prediction for Manning. From 2010-2013, the #12 QB averaged right around 24 passing TDs - a difference of 16 TDs over the course of the season, or 1 TD per game. THe change from 4 to 6 point TDs thus was worth an estimated 2 PPG between the #1 QB and the #12 QB - a decent bump, but not sure that it's enough to warrant a "He is Gold" classification, especially considering you can get that 12th QB in the 9th round or later.. I guarantee the expectation in production for a first round RB or WR vs. a 9th round RB or WR is still greater than the difference in expectation between a Manning and the #12 QB, even with 6 pts per TD pass

 

 

Expecation, yes. But what about actual production. Because i keep hearing that 5 to 7 rb's fall out of top 10. so take their average actual production from the year before. QB production is much more predictable. Not to mention QB's get injured a lot less. And maybe factor in that it's easier to find wr or rb off the waiver wire vs. a QB and perhaps the equation changes.

Edited August 14, 2014 by Jackass