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Ranking TEs


ImNotSoIgnorant
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Been thinking about how I rank TEs before and during a draft. My thought is that TEs require a lot less looking at history and their QB than WRs do. It seems TEs values are more based on their own talent/skills that they've shown which, in part, is evaluated from stats of course, but I seem to see lots of ranking relying more on the TEs actual body and what he looks like on tape.

 

Thoughts?

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Some TE's block and some catch passes. Some teams utilize the TE position as a WR in their plans (Graham), while others use the TE as an outlet when the play breaks down (Witten). Using a TE's total score for a year tells less of a story than how then got the points (PPR or TD) and how often. My mancrush on the TE position is due to the drop-off, which is steep. You can draft a RB12 and have him perform like an an RB2, but it's rare when that happens at the TE slot. Thoughts on a few...

 

Jimmy Graham - Hands down the best there is and you play him every week no matter what. People are catching on to his value and he's going in the first.

 

Rob Gronkowski - He's a beast, but his body has taken the brunt of his playing style. He's already 50/50 for week one, just like last year. I would stay away from Gronk like the plague this year. Brady is an 8th round ADP while Edelman is a 6th rounder... that should shed some light on NE's passing game. When Gronkowski was tearing it up, he also had Hernandez as an option and they played a lot of two TE sets. Somewhere in the 5th maybe, but even that's too much risk IMO.

 

Julius Thomas - With so much WR talent in Denver it's hard to predict who is going to get their share, but I think Thomas is set up for an every week play this year. He may have a few bad games, but it won't be what you expect from a TE drafted late, which is a lot of bad games. Worth a third round pick as TE#2.

 

Jordon Cameron - Ok, so he had a good year last year. One thing we know for sure, this year is not last year. His first 4 games were huge, then after the other teams figured out how to stop him, he had two more good games with a lot of meh in between. FF points are scored when NFL teams are good... the Browns are not very good.

 

Jason Witten - He's a good TE. Not great, but not too bad and very consistent. Romo trusts him and you get what you pay for.

 

Dark horse value pick - Jordan Reed. He runs excellent routes and there a lot of talent in the WR positions, which means less defense to cover him. I like him a lot this year.

 

Bust - Greg Olson. The Panthers lost a lot of WR talent, which means more focus on Olson in the red zone, but that only counts when they're in the red zone, which I don't think will happen that often.

 

Best value if you're going to tank TE - Delanie Walker. I had him last year and used him more than a few weeks. The roller-coaster will have its ups and downs, but for a late pick he has great value and will have some great games.

 

In closing, if you tank the TE slot and expect to get 5 points or less a week, it'll cost you some games. Do you expect to get 5 points out of your RB2? If you make sure that your RB2 is covered two deep, but expect your TE tank, what's the delta between a top TE and an ok RB2?

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maybe im really slow....but im confused as to what they OP is trying to say

 

I'm not sure either but I think his analysis of each tight end is pretty solid. I do disagree on gronk, for some reason I think him and Brady are going to both have big years. The young receivers have another year to improve, vereen had a big second half once he came back from injury last year, and to me having 100 plus catches (edelman) takes some sort of talent so I don't think the offense is as bad as some are saying. I think gronk is worth the risk in the 3rd round.

 

Other than that I agree with the other player analysis for the most part. If I am able to take gronk that early if he is unable to start week 1 I'd also be looking at Rudolph and walker later on in the draft

Edited by Joebirds55
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maybe im really slow....but im confused as to what they OP is trying to say

 

 

Maybe I did not say it well. What I'm saying is that the 'normal' process for ranking players doesn't apply as much to TEs. Their playing history is not a strong predictor. Same for who is throwing to them. How well they do from year to year seems to vary a lot, except for the top TEs like Graham, Gronk when he's healthy, etc. But otherwise for the rest of the TEs I think to rank them you have to rely mostly on their own talent/skills, size, and strength/block ability.

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Thews, I like reading your comments but you just downgraded TEs that play with other good receivers and other TEs that do not have any competition from other receivers.

 

Not sure what you mean? If there's good WR's and a QB surrounding the TE, the options will open for the TE. Example is Reed in Washington and Thomas in Denver. Conversely, I don't think Olson and Cameron (minus Gordon) have enough scary WR's to complement them, so the defense focuses more on them = less production.

Edited by Thews40
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Gronkowski somewhere in the 5th?!?!? That's crazy talk and would never happen at this point. I'm in 4 drafts right now and he went 3.02 in a 12 team, 2.10 in a 16 team, 2.12 in a 12 team and 2.01 in a 16 teamer. To think you could ever get Gronk in the 5th round at this point is insanity.

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Gronkowski somewhere in the 5th?!?!? That's crazy talk and would never happen at this point. I'm in 4 drafts right now and he went 3.02 in a 12 team, 2.10 in a 16 team, 2.12 in a 12 team and 2.01 in a 16 teamer. To think you could ever get Gronk in the 5th round at this point is insanity.

 

Drink your KoolAid and walk off the cliff... it's why you lose so often.

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Drink your KoolAid and walk off the cliff... it's why you lose so often.

 

 

Just saying never gonna see him in the 5th, that's all. Never. The rest of your opinions on the TEs I happen to agree with for the most part. But not with Gronk.

Edited by irish
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IN every Huddle Ladder draft he went-

 

HoF - 3.02

AP - 2.12

Semi - 2.02

PW - 2.11

PS - 2.02

 

So, in regard to Gronk, I don't know what you're smoking but it's some good shizz!

Edited by irish
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I drank the Gronk koolaid last year and it hurt me a little. I finished top 3 in both leagues I drafted him so if you plan for it, the magic could happen and totally worth the risk of what he can bring. I won't shy away this year either but I won't reach if i don't have an optimal Draft position

Edited by davesworld23
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Gronkowski somewhere in the 5th?!?!? That's crazy talk and would never happen at this point. I'm in 4 drafts right now and he went 3.02 in a 12 team, 2.10 in a 16 team, 2.12 in a 12 team and 2.01 in a 16 teamer. To think you could ever get Gronk in the 5th round at this point is insanity.

 

 

If they are expecting to get Gronk in the 5th then they are going be sorely disappointed in pretty much every draft they do.

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Yeah I don't see him being there at 5 in my main league, although in the past many guys in it have avoided gronk due to the injury worries so it is possible.

 

I'd take him in the third depending on the other players available, but am hoping to get him in the 4th.

 

 

That's where I took him and thought it was a solid value. I doubt he makes it to the 4th, that would be a steal.

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Gronkowski somewhere in the 5th?!?!? That's crazy talk and would never happen at this point. I'm in 4 drafts right now and he went 3.02 in a 12 team, 2.10 in a 16 team, 2.12 in a 12 team and 2.01 in a 16 teamer. To think you could ever get Gronk in the 5th round at this point is insanity.

 

Just saying never gonna see him in the 5th, that's all. Never. The rest of your opinions on the TEs I happen to agree with for the most part. But not with Gronk.

 

If they are expecting to get Gronk in the 5th then they are going be sorely disappointed in pretty much every draft they do.

 

Yeah I don't see him being there at 5 in my main league, although in the past many guys in it have avoided gronk due to the injury worries so it is possible.

 

I'd take him in the third depending on the other players available, but am hoping to get him in the 4th.

 

 

 

Your reading comprehension sucks. He values him as a 5th round selection. I really don't disagree with him. He's perennially hurt. He's only 50/50 for the first game. That is NOT the kind of guy perennial fantasy winners invest in in the 2nd round. He's high risk. I see him at a 4th round value. Thews sees him as a 5th round value. You were just looking to argue with him so you jumped all over his comment but you have the context wrong. I'm pretty sure Thews is aware of where Gronk is being drafted. He and I don't agree with it.

 

Rob Gronkowski - He's a beast, but his body has taken the brunt of his playing style. He's already 50/50 for week one, just like last year. I would stay away from Gronk like the plague this year. Brady is an 8th round ADP while Edelman is a 6th rounder... that should shed some light on NE's passing game. When Gronkowski was tearing it up, he also had Hernandez as an option and they played a lot of two TE sets. Somewhere in the 5th maybe, but even that's too much risk IMO.
Edited by Zooty
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Your reading comprehension sucks. He values him as a 5th round selection. I really don't disagree with him. He's perennially hurt. He's only 50/50 for the first game. That is NOT the kind of guy perennial fantasy winners invest in in the 2nd round. He's high risk. I see him at a 4th round value. Thews sees him as a 5th round value. You were just looking to argue with him so you jumped all over his comment but you have the context wrong. I'm pretty sure Thews is aware of where Gronk is being drafted. He and I don't agree with it.

 

 

Dammit! I just finished a Hooked on Phonics workshop and they didn't spend any time on strengthening comprehension skills.

 

Anyway that's what makes FF do much fun, people valuing players differently.

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Your reading comprehension sucks. He values him as a 5th round selection. I really don't disagree with him. He's perennially hurt. He's only 50/50 for the first game. That is NOT the kind of guy perennial fantasy winners invest in in the 2nd round. He's high risk. I see him at a 4th round value. Thews sees him as a 5th round value. You were just looking to argue with him so you jumped all over his comment but you have the context wrong. I'm pretty sure Thews is aware of where Gronk is being drafted. He and I don't agree with it.

 

 

Well I did say IF because he wasn't really clear what he was referring to, I mean he talked about ADP for Brady and Edelman so easy to see how it could be confused.

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Well I did say IF because he wasn't really clear what he was referring to, I mean he talked about ADP for Brady and Edelman so easy to see how it could be confused.

 

 

Good point! Yeah Zooty, take that.

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Well I did say IF because he wasn't really clear what he was referring to, I mean he talked about ADP for Brady and Edelman so easy to see how it could be confused.

 

 

Oh, I only quoted you for added emphasis of people who misunderstood Thew's post. Like why you'll screw your whole draft if you take Graham in the first with a bunch of good fantasy football players (not you local chump leagues)

 

 

Good point! Yeah Zooty, take that.

 

Yeah, no you're not off the hook. You should have your pi$$ing match with him elsewhere. Or at least attack something he actually has wrong

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Yeah, no you're not off the hook. You should have your pi$$ing match with him elsewhere. Or at least attack something he actually has wrong

 

 

We do have enough of those. Alright, not drafting Gronk in the 3rd, 4th or especially 5th round is a mistake. Now, we're on track!

Edited by irish
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Can't we all just get along?!?!

 

 

We are, this is just for fun.

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