Zooty Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 (edited) We do have enough of those. Alright, not drafting Gronk in the 3,4 or especially 5th round is a mistake. Now, we're on track! as a blanket statement I disagree. With a player who has issues staying healthy it becomes a question of how risk adverse you are, what players you already have and what TE may be available later. I personally don't see a team being in a position to draft him until the 4th without reaching. Taking him any early IMO is a high risk play. If he plays 7 games you'll likely crash and burn. If he plays 16 and is healthy you have a steal in the 2nd or 3rd. But you can't just blankly say he's worth a 2nd round pick Edited August 14, 2014 by Zooty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Julius Thomas - With so much WR talent in Denver it's hard to predict who is going to get their share Jordan Reed. He runs excellent routes and there a lot of talent in the WR positions, which means less defense to cover him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 as a blanket statement I disagree. With a player who has issues staying healthy it becomes a question of how risk adverse you are, what players you already have and what TE may be available later. I personally don't see a team being in a position to draft him until the 4th without reaching. Taking him any early IMO is a high risk play. If he plays 7 games you'll likely crash and burn. If he plays 16 and is healthy you have a steal in the 2nd or 3rd. But you can't just blankly say he's worth a 2nd round pick Ok, I agree that you can't say that for everyone and it also depends on league size. A guy in one of my 16-teamers just took Graham at 1.16 and Gronk at 2.01. I wouldn't do that in a 16-teamer. I just think it's worth the gamble in the 3rd-5th. On the teams I drafted him it looks like this- In a 16-team league I have Ellington, Vereen, Demaryius Thomas and Gronk. That's a solid start with 8 solid QBs still on the board 7 starting RBs, and a bunch of WRs left. I get a QB and a decent WR with my next 2 and that's a solid team. In a 12-teamer I have Luck, McCoy, Tate, West, MJD, SJax, Jeffery, Fitz, Colston, Shorts, Gronk. Can't complain there either. In that league I took Gronk at 3.02. I guess the only way we'll know is by season's end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joebirds55 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Yeah irish I'm in a similar spot as you. I'm picking 4th in my 10 team, and plan on going wr wr. I would almost guarantee knowing the other guys and their tendencies I could get gronk in the 3rd. I feel like if there really aren't any rb worth it (I'd be happy with a guy like ellington) I'd maybe do it. If a decent rb is there I'd hopefully get gronk in the 4th but am already preparing for him to be gone by that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 My point about Gronkowski is managing risk. He's not even 50/50 to start game #1. What if he doesn't start, would that surprise anyone? What makes you think game 2 is a lock? In 2013 he finished 19th in TE scoring (WCOFF) and didn't start until week 7. He was out after week 14, so when the playoffs came, it was lights out. I seriously don't get a third round pick for him this year. Multiple surgeries later and a noticable gimp favoring his good knee, how long are you willing to wait for the brass ring? A 7-7 team is 9-5 with two wins extra... two. Ever watch Monday night where your TE needs only 6 points and come up empty? I've been there many times (because I've owned him) and had Graham get the 15 I needed. You can have all the excuses in the end, but the risk here is something I want no part of. No matter how strong the KoolAid is the prognosticators are selling, one has to consider their own opinion and manage risk. This year is not last year... remember that, and if you discount it, last year was not even 14th round worthy. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5729/rob-gronkowski Watching Patriots practice, The MMQB's Greg Bedard observed Rob Gronkowski (knee) "favoring his right knee," and running with a "decent but not terrible limp." The former Pats beat writer believes Gronk is "far from a lock" to suit up for Week 1. After a sunny summer of updates, the Gronk news has grown a bit more pessimistic this week, but ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Thursday there's still "optimism" around his Week 1 status. This being the Pats, things will surely come down to the wire. It's possible we won't know Gronk's status until the opening day inactives are announced. Aug 14 - 7:19 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 My point about Gronkowski is managing risk. He's not even 50/50 to start game #1. What if he doesn't start, would that surprise anyone? What makes you think game 2 is a lock? In 2013 he finished 19th in TE scoring (WCOFF) and didn't start until week 7. He was out after week 14, so when the playoffs came, it was lights out. I seriously don't get a third round pick for him this year. Multiple surgeries later and a noticable gimp favoring his good knee, how long are you willing to wait for the brass ring? A 7-7 team is 9-5 with two wins extra... two. Ever watch Monday night where your TE needs only 6 points and come up empty? I've been there many times (because I've owned him) and had Graham get the 15 I needed. You can have all the excuses in the end, but the risk here is something I want no part of. No matter how strong the KoolAid is the prognosticators are selling, one has to consider their own opinion and manage risk. This year is not last year... remember that, and if you discount it, last year was not even 14th round worthy. http://www.rotoworld.../rob-gronkowski No doubt he's screwed people over. I'm one of those guys last year. However, why not take him in the 3rd and then draft a guy like Delanie Walker who's incredibly undervalued for how he should perform this year and if Gronk doesn't play, you have a solid backup. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 No doubt he's screwed people over. I'm one of those guys last year. However, why not take him in the 3rd and then draft a guy like Delanie Walker who's incredibly undervalued for how he should perform this year and if Gronk doesn't play, you have a solid backup. Thoughts? Because the third round has many other players that should play. Either play the ADP game and pick who you should, or pick who gives you the best chance to win. If you're a KoolAid drinker, then walk off the cliff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Because the third round has many other players that should play. Either play the ADP game and pick who you should, or pick who gives you the best chance to win. If you're a KoolAid drinker, then walk off the cliff. Last year in the games Gronk played he had a 17.46 pts per game avg, 2nd only to Jimmy Graham who was 18.97. IN the 7 games he played he scored 4 TDs and was targeted 66 times averaging over 9 targets a game and almost 6 receptions per contest. Graham over the 17 game stretch was targeted over 8 times per game and averaging over 5 catches per game with some higher games and some lower. Graham averaged 71 yards per game and 1 TD. Gronk through his 7, averaged just under 85 yards per game and a little over half a TD. I will drink the KoolAid and hope he can play the entire season, if not getting 10-14 games of Jimmy Graham production or better from a 3rd round pick (versus a 1st rounder in Graham) with Delanie Walker to fill in if necessary is a very sound plan. No? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 I will drink the KoolAid and hope he can play the entire season, if not getting 10-14 games of Jimmy Graham production or better from a 3rd round pick (versus a 1st rounder in Graham) with Delanie Walker to fill in if necessary is a very sound plan. No? No, you have no logic other than wishful thinking. Drafting Gronk last year was a mistake. Pointing out his stats after 7 games missed is really just a weak attempt at justifying your logic, which isn't based on anything sound. Bottom line is this is a third round pick. You drink lots of KollAid Irish and would have had the same Ladder team after the third round going auto-draft. If you don't want to hold out hopes that Gronk starts week one, then don't take the risk. If you believe Gronkowski will hold up, then by all means roll the dice. If he's a game-time decision week one, you either get an egg or ? I'm not saying I'm right, because I really don't know for sure, but what I do know for sure is there's risk I don't want to bank on... let someone else take that risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 (edited) Man you're an ignorant tool. Just look at the "points" awarded to you for picking the ADP. Pick Player Expected Actual Points 1.06 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 5 6 -34 2.07 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 13 19 -96 3.06 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 20 30 -100 So you got lucky in one random league. In the last 6 years you have failed to break .500 in the Ladder. You know why, it's because the draft is an early one. KoolAid drinkers like you like to comb over various expert's picks and tweak them, claiming you have some sort of edge... smoke and mirrors. 6 years straight Irish at <.500. You'll no doubt have your excuses, but they don't amount to anything. Risk in reaching is entirely different than banking on something that carries risk. You have no logic, no sound basis for your argument and it's all just echoed opinion of the so-called experts. Wait for more data so your opinion can change, but right now, if you're drafting Gronk in the third round is a hugh risk. We'll see who's right... maybe the blind squirrel finds a nut this year? Regardless of what the ADP says, those are the players I felt had the most value at that specific spot. Do you also realize that the 2 examples you used don't work as I took them at greater value? You don't have to be verbally abusive about it. Even if I based my entire draft off of the ADP, what's it to you? My opinion differs from you and you have to attack it because of your insecurities. It's okay if we disagree and that one of us will be wrong. Life will go on, I promise. Did you happen to see your draft results from the ladder, Mr. I Don't Follow the ADP? 9 of your picks, half of you draft followed the ADP...9!! So, ultimately I guess that's what most of us do while taking a couple chances here and there, no? Examples - Expected - Actual Calvin Johnson 3-3 Julius Thomas 29-22 Spiller 33-27 Luck 37-46 Hilton 49-51 Jordan Reed 70-75 Sproles 106-99 Denver D 153-142 Britt 165-166 So should I cry like a little biatch now that a lot of what you do is follow the ADP? No, cause I don't care. However, you do look a bit stupid now don't ya. Just a wee-bit! But wait there's more... Feel like shutting up now? No? Okay, I'll give you more reason... You keep mentioning 6 years straight and .500. When we were in the same division you finished with a .500 record against me (2-2) and never had an overall record better than mine in either year, and 1 of the 2 years, I took your money and won the title. Not only did I finish with a better record but I finished with more points. 2007 - Irish - 2,197.1...Thews - 1976.4 (beat you by over 220 pts). 2008 - Irish - 1,853.6...Thews - 1,611.8 (this time over 240 pts) Can you ever say that? NOPE! Can you believe that this "Ignorant Tool" took your money?!? LOL! Proof is in the pudding pal. And if this blind squirrel happens to find "yet another nut" you'll say it was luck again and how I'm .500 in the Ladder. Old, worn-out news pal. Not shutting up yet? Alright, one more... You mention how I got lucky in one random league last year. What about the 4 others I won last season and seem to win at least 2-3 every season? All luck too? I'm one lucky SoB, maybe that's why I'm Irish. Maybe next year, we'll get to play in the same ladder division and I'll finish better than you AGAIN! Go Gronk!! And if he fails, SO WHAT?!? Edited August 16, 2014 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfv87 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I also think Rudolph is in for a big year... Yes I know "homer" is being said/typed.. but look at the Case and points, Cassel and he are clicking in Preseason (Big1st half vs ARI), just signed a big new contract so front office will want him to be a big part of he offense, Norv Turner does a great job of utilizing the TE and lastly I am a MN Homer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I also think Rudolph is in for a big year... Yes I know "homer" is being said/typed.. but look at the Case and points, Cassel and he are clicking in Preseason (Big1st half vs ARI), just signed a big new contract so front office will want him to be a big part of he offense, Norv Turner does a great job of utilizing the TE and lastly I am a MN Homer! Completely agreed. And if I remember correctly, he also dropped so weight and is moving around quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfv87 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yes... this also! He was the target all 1st half by Cassel. And showed "speed" (ok relative speed... for him) to score from 51 yds out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Jesus H take it to PM you two totally crapped up what could have been a rare decent thread around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Jesus H take it to PM you two totally crapped up what could have been a rare decent thread around here. I apologize for doing my part in making this threads suck nuts. Carry on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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