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Draft strategy on QB’s in 6 point passing formats – Avoiding buyer's remorse and a bench too deep


Thews40
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Just completed another serpentine 12 team 6 point passing TD draft and noticed a few things. If one looks at a team like scales that are either balanced or imbalanced, in order to stack a position you have to create imbalance.

 

If you draft Peyton Manning, you will start Peyton Manning regardless of who the Broncos play. You’ll need a QB to fill in the week 4 bye, but that’s it. Drafting a good back-up QB in the middle is a mistake IMO, as there’s value in other positions. If you draft a BU for week 4, do it in the last rounds. It wouldn’t be unwise to avoid drafting another QB and pick one off the wire in week 2. Drafting Manning puts you all-in, so you may as well just ride it out.

 

In a 6 point passing TD format, I recently read an article that said it doesn’t matter regarding the QB position, because they all get 6 points for a passing TD… I couldn’t disagree more. In leagues that bias positions like 6 point for a passing TD, it skews the ADP which doesn’t factor this in. Do some math with your scoring system and gain an advantage.

 

The buzz this year on QB’s is there’s good ones that can be had later on, which is true, when you only look at the end of the year point totals. Kaepernick (in a 6 point passing TD league) finished 13th overall last year with 350 points. Stafford finished 5th with 407. So there’s only a 57 point delta between them… right? …not so fast. Look only at weeks 1-16:

 

Stafford: 28.8, 25, 30.4, 22.9, 19.1, 36, 35.8, 35.6, B, 27.9, 31.5, 29.4, 32.3, 8.5, 15.6, 11.1

Kapernick: 40.8, 11, 7.5, 20.4, 13, 24.4, 22.7, 31.6, B, 5.1, 19.8, 31.7, 21.8, 16.8, 26.3, 26.9

 

What do you see? What you don’t see is Kaepernick scored 29.9 in week 17, while Stafford scored 16.8. You don’t care about week 17, but that 57 point delta is now 69.9. Worth noting is Kaepernick scored much better in weeks 14 -16, which is showtime. This year is not last year, but worth noting nonetheless.

 

If we define a monster week is > 30, a great week as >25, a good week as >20, an average week is >15, and a stinker as <15, Stafford has 6 monster weeks, 4 great weeks, 1 good week, and 2 stinkers. Kaepernick has 3 monster weeks, 2 great weeks, 4 good weeks, and 3 stinkers. Granted, Kaepernick had two great weeks in the playoffs, but the 3 sinker weeks vs. Stafford’s two is telling. Stafford’s 6 monster weeks is twice as many as Kaepernick’s 3 and Stafford’s great weeks were also twice as many with 4 vs. 2. Stafford's stinkers in weeks 14 and 16 must still sting.

 

What is the point? The point is consistency. If you put up Manning’s numbers, you have to add categories for >50 and >60, and he had zero stinkers and only one “average” week. Same for Brees, with one stinker and one average week.

 

IMO, you can wait this year, but don’t wait too long. Having two good QB’s together Luck/Kaepernick, Ryan/Brady, etc., gives you options where you can ride the hot hand. If you draft three QB’s, you’ll burn a roster spot with a QB you really can’t drop. You can trade one though, and you may have to trade the best one (assuming you can get someone that will trade with you). I was guilty of this drafting Stafford, Cutler and Dalton, and it may have been a mistake. My logic (at the time anyway) was that this is a first year keeper league, and QB’s in 6 point passing formats tend to be kept. If I have to, I can always trade either Cutler or Dalton, or Stafford for a big name.

 

Thoughts on QB’s:

 

Manning is going to equal last year’s stats in monster weeks. The defense is better, so they won’t need score 50 points to win. Still, they look primed to score a lot of points.

 

Stafford will be better this year. The RB’s are deep and they added Golden Tate. That’s reason enough to support the opinion.

 

Cutler is going to exceed his draft pick. He's healthy and has two top WR’s and a solid RB. What’s not to like?

 

Brees will at least equal last year’s stats. He so good at throwing pinpoint passes the WR’s don't have to reach very much to catch them. The long pass he threw to Graham yesterday was placed so perfectly he didn’t have to miss a step in catching it.

 

Luck will be spotty. He’s a great athlete, but the O line is suspect and the RB situation is not looking good, making the team more one dimensional.

 

Matt Ryan will exceed his draft pick. Two top WR’s is going to make up for Gonzo being gone.

 

Brady will exceed his draft pick. He’s looked good in the preseason and if Gronkowski comes back to full speed, he has a lot more options.

 

Romo will disappoint. I realize he’s healthy now, but a back issue is tough for a QB to play through. When the opposing teams knows you can’t launch the bomb, they don’t have to cover it.

 

Alex Smith will be waiver wire fodder. His O line is worse and outside of Charles, there just isn’t that much talent.

 

Foles will disappoint, but not completely. Call me a non-believer, but without D. Jackson it changes things a lot.

 

RGIII will disappoint. He still looks confused in being molded into a pass-first QB. He wants to run and they don’t want him to. Cousins is waiting in the wings and all one needs is an excuse to plug him in.

 

The Raiders QB’s will be a disaster.

 

Johnny Football will be given the green light sooner rather than later. His learning curve will come at the expense of the fantasy points for the TE/WR’s.

 

Kaepernick will exceed his draft pick. With Crabtree in the mix he's a whole lot better.

 

Your thoughts…

Edited by Thews40
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I actually agree that the TD scoring means little when drafting.

 

It is about the separation of points between guys at each position not about overall points.

 

My local is a 6 pt TD scoring league and been in the league 21 years .just like in 4 pt leagues the RB's go 1st. people always at 1st went QB until they kept seeing the guy who takes 2 RB's with 1st 2 picks win it. 15 of 21 years the winner of our league went RB/RB. 4 of the 6 years the winner went RB/WR and the other 2 seasons were teams that drafted QB/rb . interesting enough is we never had a team that went WR/WR win it. and it is a PPR league where all catches are a point.

 

Of course all leagues are different and the patterns of the winners will be different from league to league.

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My league is a 6 pptd plus we have a super flex where u could start 2 QBs However, you can't have more than 2 QBS on your roster. Then as a nice bonus we add IDPs to the starting roster. At what point in the 1st do you take Peyton? Brees or Rodgers? I've been debating my mind back in forth if I would take him #1 overall. I think I would rather go qb/wr early this year as stud RB is thin after 5 and I would rather take a RB w questions in Rd5 or 6 than 1 in Rd 2 or 3 especially since RBs come from the waiver wire every year to win someone their league. If I have an early pick and go RB I would grab only Stafford in Rd 2 if he doesn't make it I don't see a reason to Draft a QB til 5 or 6 I've even toyed with the idea of grabbing Watt or Quinn in Rd 5 since it is a big play league

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My league is a 6 pptd plus we have a super flex where u could start 2 QBs However, you can't have more than 2 QBS on your roster. Then as a nice bonus we add IDPs to the starting roster. At what point in the 1st do you take Peyton? Brees or Rodgers? I've been debating my mind back in forth if I would take him #1 overall. I think I would rather go qb/wr early this year as stud RB is thin after 5 and I would rather take a RB w questions in Rd5 or 6 than 1 in Rd 2 or 3 especially since RBs come from the waiver wire every year to win someone their league. If I have an early pick and go RB I would grab only Stafford in Rd 2 if he doesn't make it I don't see a reason to Draft a QB til 5 or 6 I've even toyed with the idea of grabbing Watt or Quinn in Rd 5 since it is a big play league

 

 

 

If you can start 2 QB's I think you should.in leagues like this I treat my QB's like I do RB's in regular leagues and draft them back to back in the 1st and 2nd round. just my opinion. others may differ.

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