Chief Dick Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Him and Graham are a tight #2 on my list. I think Graham will do well this year, but will see a dip in overall production with the Saints opening up the running game more. I also believe he will see more attention & subsequently less targets in the red zone. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the production of all the top TE's drops a bit with defenses getting a little better at defending them, not to mention that their production as a whole fluctuates wildly from season to season. Last year you had only Graham cracking the top 50, 2012 there were none, 2011 only Graham and Gronk & again none in 2010. So, while hitting the jackpot with one of these guys when you're picking them in latter rounds may have won a lot of people their championships, taking any one of them in the 1st is a huge risk IMO. (files this one away, as this is the guy who correctly picked the greatest sleeper of all time - Colston) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tripleshot Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 (edited) I'm not worried about Lybch at all, even before reading the article by Tristan Cockraft on ESPN, found here: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14marshawn/marshawn-lynch-being-underappeciated-fantasy-drafts-2014 None of my fellow Prime Timers need read this. Just let him fall to me in the 2nd Round. Edited August 25, 2014 by Tripleshot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 (edited) I'm not worried about Lybch at all, even before reading the article by Tristan Cockraft on ESPN, found here: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14marshawn/marshawn-lynch-being-underappeciated-fantasy-drafts-2014 None of my fellow Prime Timers need read this. Just let him fall to me in the 2nd Round. I just look at over 1000 touches over the last 3 years and how physical he runs. ..I will always go for the younger back with less mileage Edit: 988 touches. ...901 rushes... Edited August 26, 2014 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Him and Graham are a tight #2 on my list. I think Graham will do well this year, but will see a dip in overall production with the Saints opening up the running game more. I also believe he will see more attention & subsequently less targets in the red zone You know a helluva lot more about the Saints than me, but as long as Payton and Brees are there I'll believe the bolded when I see it. As far as the red zone..it seems like everyone knew it was going to Graham last yr and still couldn't do anything about it. Guys unstoppable and Brees is too when they get down there IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joebirds55 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 You know a helluva lot more about the Saints than me, but as long as Payton and Brees are there I'll believe the bolded when I see it. As far as the red zone..it seems like everyone knew it was going to Graham last yr and still couldn't do anything about it. Guys unstoppable and Brees is too when they get down there IMO Agreed on graham. Don't buy for a second that hell receive more attention. I think he already has received it and in the words of I'm not sure who "you can't stop him you can only hope to contain him". Only thing bringing graham down is an injury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tripleshot Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 I just look at over 1000 touches over the last 3 years and how physical he runs. ..I will always go for the younger back with less mileage Edit: 988 touches. ...901 rushes... The thing is, he doesn't take big hits. Yes, he is a physical, punishing runner, but he doles it out, he doesn't take much. How many games has he missed in those three years? One game. He's been as durable as anyone, and it's not like he had tons of miles on him before he came to Seattle. I predict he's one of those special backs who remains productive past that set-in-stone age 28 mark where supposedly every running back goes to die. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 The thing is, he doesn't take big hits. Yes, he is a physical, punishing runner, but he doles it out, he doesn't take much. How many games has he missed in those three years? One game. He's been as durable as anyone, and it's not like he had tons of miles on him before he came to Seattle. I predict he's one of those special backs who remains productive past that set-in-stone age 28 mark where supposedly every running back goes to die. That is fine. ..regardless of how he runs...he is still a humam being constantly enduring contact on his body and is close to 30... plus he is not even considered a top 5 back....I am avoiding and will let someone else take a flier on him while I go with Ball instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davesworld23 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 (edited) In the last 3 years the torpedo was someone you didn't expect. I am going to say McCoy is the torpedo(again). Even though I would take him before any other RB I would actually take Calvin #1 overall and hit 2RBs in 2/3. This year there are many RBs all through out the 1st 10 Rds that could put up decent #s. WRs may be deep but Elite WR is not and you can snag a replacement RB off the WW like every year and ride him to the ship. NFL has changed and so has fantasy. Edited August 26, 2014 by davesworld23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davesworld23 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 And as far as Foster is concerned. His value is dropped to mid/end 2nd round. That is great value for what he could bring to the table. Yeah he has injury risks but what RB doesn't? In the 1st, no way. .. In the 2nd it depends on who I'm passing up but I think he rebounds this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MothAudio Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Other than McCoy the other three top backs [not to mention Foster] scare me. So I went with Ball. Most backs have a short shelf life, instead of grabbing the hot guy last year better to reach for the break out star. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 You know a helluva lot more about the Saints than me, but as long as Payton and Brees are there I'll believe the bolded when I see it. As far as the red zone..it seems like everyone knew it was going to Graham last yr and still couldn't do anything about it. Guys unstoppable and Brees is too when they get down there IMO The year they won the Superbowl they were a top 5 rushing team. Payton has really made an emphasis this offseason to get back to that balanced attack. Take that FWIW. Graham will still get his, I just don't believe he will be worth anywhere near his ADP. Especially since you can get a Gronk or JT in the 3rd, Jordan in the 4th & VD etc in the 5th & beyond. Not to mention, history says there will be at least one breakout TE taken as a flyer. I think you have better odds picking a sleeper TE and taking a very good TE in the middle rounds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 That is fine. ..regardless of how he runs...he is still a humam being constantly enduring contact on his body and is close to 30... plus he is not even considered a top 5 back....I am avoiding and will let someone else take a flier on him while I go with Ball instead This notion that a physical RB like Lynch doles out the hits and doesn't take them doesn't diminish the punishment on his body. Whether he runs into and levels a player or that player runs into him and levels him both take their toll. As far as his mileage before coming to SEA, he didn't sit on the bench in BUF either. He may not have averaged 300+ touches a year but the numbers were still pretty high. I looked them up, othern than one off year had a very big load. 07 - 280 rush, 18 rec, 298 total in 13 games 08 - 250 rush, 47 rec, 297 total in 15 games 09 - 120 rush, 28 rec, 148 total in 13 games (he started only 6 games sharing with Fred Jackson) 10 - 202 rush, 43 rec, 245 total in 16 games (first 4 with BUF, remainder in SEA) that is 988 total in 4 years, or 247 a year before his first full season in SEA touches in his 7 year career 1753 rush + 202 rec, total 1955, or 280 per year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 This notion that a physical RB like Lynch doles out the hits and doesn't take them doesn't diminish the punishment on his body. Whether he runs into and levels a player or that player runs into him and levels him both take their toll. As far as his mileage before coming to SEA, he didn't sit on the bench in BUF either. He may not have averaged 300+ touches a year but the numbers were still pretty high. I looked them up, othern than one off year had a very big load. 07 - 280 rush, 18 rec, 298 total in 13 games 08 - 250 rush, 47 rec, 297 total in 15 games 09 - 120 rush, 28 rec, 148 total in 13 games (he started only 6 games sharing with Fred Jackson) 10 - 202 rush, 43 rec, 245 total in 16 games (first 4 with BUF, remainder in SEA) that is 988 total in 4 years, or 247 a year before his first full season in SEA touches in his 7 year career 1753 rush + 202 rec, total 1955, or 280 per year. Mhm there is a high misconception about his mileage. .. or lack there of....he had played a ton without getting hurt. .. I will let someone else draft him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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