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Let's play "Who is my torpedo this year?".


Tripleshot
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Two years in a row my first round picks in Prime Time(BoTH) have torpedoed my season. Two years ago it was McCoy with the third overall pick. Granted, he was a consensus pick there but it doesn't change that he stunk. Oh to have had him last year...

Last year Rice fell to me at 8th when I was convinced I was getting Forte. I've had Rice on some of my older teams since his second year in the league and let my heart color my decision. Unfortunately that color was brown.

Who are the first round players you think most likely to be a torpedo this year?

Edited by Tripleshot
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I really like this player and his game but watch it be Jamaal Charles. I can see him let his owners down with the tougher schedule or a weird injury doing something stupid, like moving a box, and then watch Knile Davis take over.

Edited by irish
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I think JC is talented enough to finish as a strong RB1 even with the OL shakeup. Injury is the only thing that can stop him.

 

I think we are all a little worried about any of the 2nd yr backs going in the first two rounds, especially after last season.

 

Foster is a huge torpedo waiting to happen with his balky hamstrings.

 

Gronk has torpedo potential due to injury.

 

Romo's back scares me in regards to Dez. I'd rather gamble Julio's foot than the two Cowboys' backs.

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For me I think it could be Andrew luck. Ignoring any injury possibilities for a guy like calvin, I think at this point a lot expect luck to be mentioned with Rodgers Peyton and brees. Does he make the jump? While I don't see him regressing at all, him taking the next step could be the difference maker in a championship team or torpedoing out in the first round of the fantasy playoffs

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I also think spiller could be my torpedo, or bill belichick. I gave spiller a second chance after last year's debacle. If Murray goes down and spiller disappoints again I will be hurting big time at rb. It seems vereen is the only one bill may give a second chance to if he fumbles, but maybe he doesnt.

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Most of my team are possible torpedos. Andrew Luck, Charles, Crabtree, Marshall, Michael Floyd, Gronk.

 

I list Marshall simply because I had him ...4 or 5 years ago he was an ok receiver, but not a round 2 receiver.

Then there's this feeling Luck could do less well simply because he has great WRs options. Like the whole plan will fail because its set up to be great. Charles the injury. Floyd because of high expectations. Crabtree...for being crabtree. Gronk for injury.

 

But its a keeper league so I had to keep charles at 2, luck at 7, floyd at 15 and gronk at 12. Too good to pass up each draft round.

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It may just be me, but if you're hinging your season on either Foster or Gronk then you're asking to be disappointed. I wouldn't rely on either one without having a very solid #2 with a ton of upside. The same goes for Demarco Murray.

 

My torpedo is Matt Forte. I feel like the Bears will be a bit less consistent on offense this year and the injury bug will come back to bite him again this year despite a healthy 2013 season.

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he said first round torpedos...

 

 

I guess we all need a lesson in reading comprehension. That or paying attention. Including me... :)

 

Exclusively first round I guess I could say calvin. Little dip last year, but who knows, maybe this year the injuries he usually always keeps under control really derail his season. Maybe the wear and tear on his body drops him to the bottom of the top receiver tier.

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Since he's going in the 1st round almost exclusively, I gotta think it could be Jimmy Graham. Out of the gate, he's gangbusters, but seems to get hobbled mid-season by one thing or another....not serious injuries (like Gronk), but nagging ones.

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Most of my team are possible torpedos. Andrew Luck, Charles, Crabtree, Marshall, Michael Floyd, Gronk.

 

I list Marshall simply because I had him ...4 or 5 years ago he was an ok receiver, but not a round 2 receiver.

Then there's this feeling Luck could do less well simply because he has great WRs options. Like the whole plan will fail because its set up to be great. Charles the injury. Floyd because of high expectations. Crabtree...for being crabtree. Gronk for injury.

 

But its a keeper league so I had to keep charles at 2, luck at 7, floyd at 15 and gronk at 12. Too good to pass up each draft round.

 

 

hmmm...marshall is ok?

 

well yeah maybe if you drafted him in his miami years which were just bad to watch....even then it was clear he was not an just an ok receiver.....it was that they didnt have the scheme and the qb to take advantage of his skills....marshall is clearly at home again and feeling comfy in chicago...his two year average there year is pretty good with me....and last year he showed he could still get it done with another top receiver along side him and a rb that caught 70 passes......

 

i may agree that he might be slightly overvalued by some.....because i dont think you are likely to see a 1500 yard 14-15 td season out of him.....i have him behind dt, mega, dez, and julio(even though the foot scares me and thats what it all hinges on).....but i think hes there with aj green and jordy........if yer paying a late first(deeper league) or early 2nd price on him then i think you might be slightly disappointed....but i think hes highly unlikely to sink your season unless theres an injury problem or we see 8 games from jimmy clausen

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I think the biggest one is gonna be Charles as well - lost a lot of that O-line in the offseason, and isn't one of the starting tackles out for the first few weeks? I just don't see him living up to a top 3 RB that people are expecting him to be.

 

Lynch is another player that comes to mind. I think Seattle will mix in Turbin and Michael more than people think - trying to keep everyone in good health for a postseason run again. Just my gut feeling.

 

Arian Foster is another one - dude was contemplating retirement this offseason - why? Not sure his head is into it anymore - especially how his team regressed last year - and his injuries.

 

Another one is Doug Martin. He put up a dud last season, his O-line is still in shambles, he has no true backup - he's certainly gonna be given the opportunity but I don't see him being very productive, not to mention holding up all season long.

 

Last off on my list is LeVeon Bell. This one really isn't cause of an issue with the line, or the offense he plays on - but it's been reported (even Bell acknowledged it), Blount is going to be the 3rd down and redzone / goal line back. Sounds like another Ryan Matthews in the making. Gets the lions share of the carries up to the 20, then in comes Blount.

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hmmm...marshall is ok?

 

well yeah maybe if you drafted him in his miami years which were just bad to watch....even then it was clear he was not an just an ok receiver.....it was that they didnt have the scheme and the qb to take advantage of his skills....marshall is clearly at home again and feeling comfy in chicago...his two year average there year is pretty good with me....and last year he showed he could still get it done with another top receiver along side him and a rb that caught 70 passes......

 

i may agree that he might be slightly overvalued by some.....because i dont think you are likely to see a 1500 yard 14-15 td season out of him.....i have him behind dt, mega, dez, and julio(even though the foot scares me and thats what it all hinges on).....but i think hes there with aj green and jordy........if yer paying a late first(deeper league) or early 2nd price on him then i think you might be slightly disappointed....but i think hes highly unlikely to sink your season unless theres an injury problem or we see 8 games from jimmy clausen

 

 

Well its a keeper league and I already kept Rashad Jennings and Charles. My league very very few RBs are available the first two rounds, so I drafted marshall in the first. Yeah, I had him on Miami. Its all sort of superstitious, but I worry what happened in Miami will somehow come to pass this year for him. Its not based on logic.

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I think the biggest one is gonna be Charles as well - lost a lot of that O-line in the offseason, and isn't one of the starting tackles out for the first few weeks? I just don't see him living up to a top 3 RB that people are expecting him to be.

 

Lynch is another player that comes to mind. I think Seattle will mix in Turbin and Michael more than people think - trying to keep everyone in good health for a postseason run again. Just my gut feeling.

 

Arian Foster is another one - dude was contemplating retirement this offseason - why? Not sure his head is into it anymore - especially how his team regressed last year - and his injuries.

 

Another one is Doug Martin. He put up a dud last season, his O-line is still in shambles, he has no true backup - he's certainly gonna be given the opportunity but I don't see him being very productive, not to mention holding up all season long.

 

Last off on my list is LeVeon Bell. This one really isn't cause of an issue with the line, or the offense he plays on - but it's been reported (even Bell acknowledged it), Blount is going to be the 3rd down and redzone / goal line back. Sounds like another Ryan Matthews in the making. Gets the lions share of the carries up to the 20, then in comes Blount.

 

 

i dont really look at guys like martin, foster, and bell as guys that can sink a season either.......i dont really think any of those guys...except for martin go in the 2nd round....i think foster and bell are 3rd rounders....maybe late 2nd....i can see martin being a late 2nd rounder

 

last year he def sunk seasons....at first i wasnt that into martin this year.....especially with the drafting of sims...and of course their offensive line is pretty bad......they aquired anthony collins who is a very underrated pass blocker but im not sure how good of a run blocker he is and hes never played/started for an entire year......i guess they might be talking to incognito....which would give them a mean run blocking guard in there.....and there was also talk of them maybe trying to aquire alex boone from the 9ers......with sims out im starting to warm up to martin.....i think mccown can make enough plays with vjax and evans to keep things moving and create opportunities.....i could see alot of penalties getting called on guys covering those two especially down near the goal

 

guys like martin and foster shouldnt sink your season unless you go wr/wr or wr/te and yer depending on them to be your number 1....even then if you draft well enough around a guy like that shouldnt kill you

 

last year in a high stakes start 3rb 4wr league.....i drafted sjax in the 2nd round and colston in the 5th....they were virtually useless and by the time colston became startable he was long gone.....but i drafted a good team around them with some depth and finished 2nd in the league in total points.....drafted guys like charles, marshall, decker, bernard, l bell, v davis....hit the waiver wire at the right times with z stacy, edelman, and patterson......

 

a 2nd or 3rd round rb shouldnt kill your year if you draft well before and after them.....and are agressive on the wire

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Well its a keeper league and I already kept Rashad Jennings and Charles. My league very very few RBs are available the first two rounds, so I drafted marshall in the first. Yeah, I had him on Miami. Its all sort of superstitious, but I worry what happened in Miami will somehow come to pass this year for him. Its not based on logic.

 

 

over the last 5-6 years marshall is the one guy that ive owned the most....always end up drafting the guy...i fell in love with the guy in denver even though he never blew the roof off with tds.......

 

and i followed him right to miami....i really figured that he was going to be the centerpiece and they were going to find ways to get him the ball....and they just werent good at it....they were inept and just an unbearable garbage team to watch......i was as letdown as anyone....but the i followed him right to chicago too....and the love affair was reignited........trust me there is a huge difference between this chicago team and that dolphins team...in terms of talent and coaching.....

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It's gonna be Charles. The more I see and hear about this team, I think it's gonna be ugly this year.

 

 

Him and Graham are a tight #2 on my list. I think Graham will do well this year, but will see a dip in overall production with the Saints opening up the running game more. I also believe he will see more attention & subsequently less targets in the red zone.

 

In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the production of all the top TE's drops a bit with defenses getting a little better at defending them, not to mention that their production as a whole fluctuates wildly from season to season. Last year you had only Graham cracking the top 50, 2012 there were none, 2011 only Graham and Gronk & again none in 2010. So, while hitting the jackpot with one of these guys when you're picking them in latter rounds may have won a lot of people their championships, taking any one of them in the 1st is a huge risk IMO.

Edited by rajncajn
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I picked 12th in a 12 team league, so technically he wasn't my first round pick but he was the #1 pick in the 2nd round and the more I read the less enthusiastic I am about this pick - Giovani Bernard.

 

 

i drafted him last year in the 6th in two leagues and he was great for that value.....i love him and his talent....i just dont know if hes worth that...im not even positive hes worth a mid 2nd........i suppose if you land gio and a stud wr you could be worse off...im just no sold

 

eveyone seems to think with hue jackson in the fold that the bengals are going to pound and pound the ball...i dont think the offense will change all that much in terms of pass/run ratio.......i keep seeing people project around 65 catches for bernard which is good....but thats about 10 more than he had last year.....and im just not sure how many more carries in the run game yer gonna see from him over what he had last year......they spent another 2nd rounder on a fresh legged battering ram in hill.....

 

last year bernard had a lot of frustrating games where he was able to salvage the day by popping off a play in the passing game...which of course is part of his allure....but look at his last two games of the year....basically dead and then he popped off a nice catch that made the day somewhat bearable.....and he had some duds in the middle of the year against some tough run d's

 

theres always going to be a market for a 15-18 touch guy with dynamic ability....but i just dont know if there is enough volume for him to be a consistent guy.....i think he will frustrate people and leave you wanting more.....you may watch him and feel frustrated that he isnt the focal point of the offense the way some other backs are......

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It's gonna be Charles. The more I see and hear about this team, I think it's gonna be ugly this year.

 

 

Agreed.

 

I also think Graham has a bit of a dip this year - still will be one of the better TEs, but not enough to justify his high ADP. Another guy I'm staying away from this year is Lynch, although he's not a first rounder.

Edited by bud29
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