6pt touchdown pass and 1pt for 20 yards instead of 25

[RipCity]

The $100 league I've joined is a PPR league that has put more value into the QB with 6pt touchdown passes and 1pt for every 20 passing yards instead of (I think) the default 25. The passing yard bonus (300+ passing yards) is the same as the rushing yard bonus (110+ rushing yards).

 

This is my first year playing FFB and typical PPR advice still has the order going something like McCoy, Charles, AP, Forte, Lacy, C. Johnson, D. Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jimmy Graham, and maybe will throw in Peyton somewhere after the first 5 RBs.

 

It goes QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX (RB/WR/TE), D/ST, K

 

I was really wanting to get a top 5 RB workhorse and then 2 stud receivers, and try to grab Matt Ryan in the 8th round (I'll have to pick him up sooner rather than later because this is a QB frenzy league). I've been told that Manning will probably go #1 in this league.

 

Let's say Manning throws 40 TDs. 6 pointers rather than 4 pointers gives him 80 extra points right there. Then you have to consider the 20 yards vs 25 yards.

 

With the QB value in this league, would you pick Manning/Brees if you were in the top 5, or would stick with conventional PPR advice?

 

Thanks!

[Red Storm]

Stick conventional with 1-3. Take a gamble on Manning at 4-8. I had number three in mine and was torn between AP and Manning.

[robotpimp]

The $100 league I've joined is a PPR league that has put more value into the QB with 6pt touchdown passes and 1pt for every 20 passing yards instead of (I think) the default 25. The passing yard bonus (300+ passing yards) is the same as the rushing yard bonus (110+ rushing yards).

 

This is my first year playing FFB and typical PPR advice still has the order going something like McCoy, Charles, AP, Forte, Lacy, C. Johnson, D. Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jimmy Graham, and maybe will throw in Peyton somewhere after the first 5 RBs.

 

It goes QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX (RB/WR/TE), D/ST, K

 

I was really wanting to get a top 5 RB workhorse and then 2 stud receivers, and try to grab Matt Ryan in the 8th round (I'll have to pick him up sooner rather than later because this is a QB frenzy league). I've been told that Manning will probably go #1 in this league.

 

Let's say Manning throws 40 TDs. 6 pointers rather than 4 pointers gives him 80 extra points right there. Then you have to consider the 20 yards vs 25 yards.

 

With the QB value in this league, would you pick Manning/Brees if you were in the top 5, or would stick with conventional PPR advice?

 

Thanks!

 

Top RB's are a premium, with QB scoring up that does boost the TD throwers but there are a lot of yardage QB's as teams typically throw more. If Matt Ryan, Rivers or even C Palmer can hit 4500 passing the separation is the passing TD.. Ryan will be a great value later while you round out your RB1,2 and WR1,2 (Cutler probably will end up similar to Ryan, same with Brady).

 

I'm in a similar league with progressive QB scoring 1pt per 20 passing, 6 per TD, I won the league with A.Luck and he was not all that impressive, the stronger teams in the league were definitely the two with Peyton and Brees although you can't over pay as people hoard RB's and dwindle top elite WR's quick. Stay conventional. top 5 should remain the same (4 RB's, CJ or Lacy/Ball).

[Nanas4football]

He went no.1 in my league. Same 6 pt system. I would still go RB RB or RB receiver. Grab qb later. I got Dalton and Carson after the 5th round.

Just for info, at no.3 I went

 

AP

Montee

Julius Thom

Roddy white

Crabtree

then Dalton

....

[RipCity]

Thanks guys. Appreciate the advice.

[rahyde88]

i was in this exact kind of league last year with same scoring. the final 4 playoff teams at the end were me with manning, brees, rivers, and guy with combo of luck/rodgers. that should tell you something

[RipCity]

Ugh. Ya, they're too important. Can you remember if Manning, Brees and Rodgers were taken in the 1st round? I don't know what their ADP was, but if they were selected as a 2nd pick to go along with a top 5 running back last year that would have been GG right there. But if I take 1 in the 1st round this time, I miss out on the crucial RB.

[Big Country]

The $100 league I've joined is a PPR league that has put more value into the QB with 6pt touchdown passes and 1pt for every 20 passing yards instead of (I think) the default 25. The passing yard bonus (300+ passing yards) is the same as the rushing yard bonus (110+ rushing yards).

 

This is my first year playing FFB and typical PPR advice still has the order going something like McCoy, Charles, AP, Forte, Lacy, C. Johnson, D. Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jimmy Graham, and maybe will throw in Peyton somewhere after the first 5 RBs.

 

It goes QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX (RB/WR/TE), D/ST, K

 

I was really wanting to get a top 5 RB workhorse and then 2 stud receivers, and try to grab Matt Ryan in the 8th round (I'll have to pick him up sooner rather than later because this is a QB frenzy league). I've been told that Manning will probably go #1 in this league.

 

Let's say Manning throws 40 TDs. 6 pointers rather than 4 pointers gives him 80 extra points right there. Then you have to consider the 20 yards vs 25 yards.

 

With the QB value in this league, would you pick Manning/Brees if you were in the top 5, or would stick with conventional PPR advice?

 

Thanks!

 

 

Unless Maning is the only QB that gets 6 points for TDs, looking at the move from 4 to 6 pts TDs being worth 80 points is flawed. You are looking at how much does Manning (or any other QB) outscore the other QBs.

 

So, assuming all QBs get 6 pts per TD pass, then you must only look atthe change in scoring for the difference i nthe number of TDs. There have been a number of threds on this already, but over the last 4-5 years, the #12 QB has thrown around 24-25 TDs. So, if weassume Manning (or the top QB in general) is going to be somewhere around 40 TDs, which is a realistic expectation, than that is a difference of 15-16 TDs over the course of the season, or about 2 points per game - and that is from the top QB to the 12th QB (where generally the guys from #10- 18 are all in this range). The difference is even less for the 2nd/3rd tier QBs

 

So, at the end of the day, the change from 4 pt to 6 pt passing TDs is an extremely minimal change in QB value.

[RipCity]

That is a GREAT post. Thank you, Big Country. That's the 1st time I've seen it put that way and it totally makes sense. This will reinforce my RB-WR-WR strategy unless better value pops up.

[rahyde88]

yes all 3 were taken in the first round in the league I was talking about. I believe Newton went in the second and Luck & Brady went shortly after

Edited August 26, 2014 by rahyde88

[rahyde88]

The numbers from out of my league last year was a 92 point average difference from QB's 1-4 to 5-8

Edited August 26, 2014 by rahyde88

[Big Country]

That is a GREAT post. Thank you, Big Country. That's the 1st time I've seen it put that way and it totally makes sense. This will reinforce my RB-WR-WR strategy unless better value pops up.

 

 

The yardage going from 1 per 25 to 1 per 20 will also have a minor effect that slightly boosts high yardage QBs, but it is also relatively minor (unlike the leagues that go 1 pt per 10 yards passing and/or have the point per completion rule).

 

I;d say QBs are slightly more valuable in the league, but not enough to make me significantly change my draft strategy.

[Football Follies]

Unless Maning is the only QB that gets 6 points for TDs, looking at the move from 4 to 6 pts TDs being worth 80 points is flawed. You are looking at how much does Manning (or any other QB) outscore the other QBs.

 

So, assuming all QBs get 6 pts per TD pass, then you must only look atthe change in scoring for the difference i nthe number of TDs. There have been a number of threds on this already, but over the last 4-5 years, the #12 QB has thrown around 24-25 TDs. So, if weassume Manning (or the top QB in general) is going to be somewhere around 40 TDs, which is a realistic expectation, than that is a difference of 15-16 TDs over the course of the season, or about 2 points per game - and that is from the top QB to the 12th QB (where generally the guys from #10- 18 are all in this range). The difference is even less for the 2nd/3rd tier QBs

 

So, at the end of the day, the change from 4 pt to 6 pt passing TDs is an extremely minimal change in QB value.

 

 

This seems like a roto style mind set when almost all leagues are head to head. I can't remember how many matchups in my league have been decided by 2 points or less but it happens nearly every week for somebody (could be the difference between playoffs and not). I'd like to see the flip side if you pass on a top QB for a WR/RB and how that plays out with the points difference between the next WR/RB you get.

 

Also, bust rate is much higher for RB/WR than it is for top QB.

[Big Country]

The numbers from out of my league last year was a 92 point average difference from QB's 1-4 to 5-8

 

 

And what was the difference for the other positions.

 

Also, to do a proper value analysis, you need to take into account number of teams and number of starters.

 

So, for a 12 team league with 1 Qb, 2 RB and 3 WR starters, you need to look at the spread from the #1-12 QB, the #1-24 RB and the #1-36 WR to make a fair comparison.... then, for draft strategy, you have to look within those blocks for the "tiers" to develop a draft strategy to maximize the value that you draft.

[Big Country]

This seems like a roto style mind set when almost all leagues are head to head. I can't remember how many matchups in my league have been decided by 2 points or less but it happens nearly every week for somebody (could be the difference between playoffs and not). I'd like to see the flip side if you pass on a top QB for a WR/RB and how that plays out with the points difference between the next WR/RB you get.

 

Also, bust rate is much higher for RB/WR than it is for top QB.

 

 

Have you read the "Dissecting QB Value" article on this site... it was originally posted last preseason, but goes pretty in depth into this.

 

Your point about the expected drop in points by position is the whole basis of value based drafting. Point being that the expected drop in points from the top QBs to ones in the 8-12 range (typically availble in the 7th round or later) is much less than the likely drop between the top RB/WRs and those taken in the 20-24 range (usually a 3rd-4th round range pick).

 

Regarding the bust rate comment, that may be true, but the bust rate for an RB/WR in the 6th-10th round is even higher than that of RB/WR in the 1st-3rd rounds, while the "bust" rate for QBs that are available that late is equally as low as the high end QBs with a much lower expected drop in production.

[rahyde88]

WR difference from 1-4 and 5-8 on average was 22 points. RB was 72. 10 team league. don't have time to go into everything else as I am at work, but just trying to contribute as much as I can so the discussion can continue.

[Big Country]

WR difference from 1-4 and 5-8 on average was 22 points. RB was 72. 10 team league. don't have time to go into everything else as I am at work, but just trying to contribute as much as I can so the discussion can continue.

 

 

I assume you start more than 1 RB and WR though

[RipCity]

Great stuff, guys. I believe I'm starting to grasp the thought process here.

 

If I take a 1st round QB, I need to look at the average point advantage he'll have against a 7/8 round QB. Then I must compare that against the same rounds for a RB, so a 1st round RB against a 7/8 round RB.

 

In the 7th and 8th rounds it starts looking really shaky for RB, so I would expect a huge point differential there, more than the QB difference for those same rounds.

 

It'll be easy for me to tell, though. I'm in an ESPN league and can use my league's scoring rules while looking at the players' 2013 stats.

 

Hopefully I'm not missing anything. I'll post back later with what I find.

[Football Follies]

Have you read the "Dissecting QB Value" article on this site... it was originally posted last preseason, but goes pretty in depth into this.

 

Your point about the expected drop in points by position is the whole basis of value based drafting. Point being that the expected drop in points from the top QBs to ones in the 8-12 range (typically availble in the 7th round or later) is much less than the likely drop between the top RB/WRs and those taken in the 20-24 range (usually a 3rd-4th round range pick).

 

Regarding the bust rate comment, that may be true, but the bust rate for an RB/WR in the 6th-10th round is even higher than that of RB/WR in the 1st-3rd rounds, while the "bust" rate for QBs that are available that late is equally as low as the high end QBs with a much lower expected drop in production.

 

 

I did read some of it but it was a long articleI remember Locker being used as an example. My main point is the top 3 QBs are very safe picks and a ton of first and second round picks bust. Your argument about later round RBs and WRs having a higher bust rate is valid but the guys in the first 2 rounds need to be safer picks IMO as they are your big scorers. I'd rather bust on a 5th rd RB and have a top 2/3 QB than bust on my first rd RB.

[RipCity]

Average points in my league in 2013, with standard scoring points in parenthesis:

 

Peyton Manning: 38.6 (25.4) - ESPN 2014 Live Draft ADP #4

 

Matt Ryan: 23.2 (14.9) - ESPN 2014 Live Draft ADP #80

 

QB Difference: 15.4

 

Jamaal Charles: 22.2 (18.4) - ESPN 2014 Live Draft ADP #3

 

Stevan Ridley: 7.6 (6.8) - ESPN 2014 Live Draft ADP #76

 

RB Difference: 14.6

 

 

I need a bigger sample size in order to make anything of this. Also, I'm using 2013 stats with 2014 ADPs, so that's weird.

 

That's what I have for now.

[keggerz]

That is a GREAT post. Thank you, Big Country. That's the 1st time I've seen it put that way and it totally makes sense. This will reinforce my RB-WR-WR strategy unless better value pops up.

 

Big County is a very smart man and I'm sure he'd be in agreeance that you should read, "Dissecting QB Value In Fantasy Football" or as it's also known as the #ZeroQBTheorem

[keggerz]

I did read some of it but it was a long articleI remember Locker being used as an example. My main point is the top 3 QBs are very safe picks and a ton of first and second round picks bust. Your argument about later round RBs and WRs having a higher bust rate is valid but the guys in the first 2 rounds need to be safer picks IMO as they are your big scorers. I'd rather bust on a 5th rd RB and have a top 2/3 QB than bust on my first rd RB.

 

So you didn't read the article because it was too long? You probably missed the metrics about pR(Positional Replaceability) and mR (Miss rate). In any event, if you want a safe 1st round pick, you are absolutely right you should go QB. But from where I stand it isn't about safe and the numbers just don't support a 1st round or early round for that matter QB.

[keggerz]

Try and think of it this way....there's 25 balloons on a wall and inside one of them is a ticket to win $1,000,000. If you draft a QB in round 1 or early you get 5 darts and $100/dart but if you draft your QB late (round 9 or later) you get 10 darts and $25/dart. Which play are you making?

[Football Follies]

So you didn't read the article because it was too long? You probably missed the metrics about pR(Positional Replaceability) and mR (Miss rate). In any event, if you want a safe 1st round pick, you are absolutely right you should go QB. But from where I stand it isn't about safe and the numbers just don't support a 1st round or early round for that matter QB.

 

 

Not saying I would take a QB in the first round. But in the 2nd or 3rd I would if I see value there. I read most of the article it is a good read. I still think the bust rate is a big factor. You may want to go with a boom or bust guy your first few round all about your risk tolerance. A lot of this assumes you are hitting on your RB/WR picks. Also a lot of RB and WR 2 and 3's aren't necessarily started every week they often have boom or bust weeks and are borderline starts based on matchup. Your stud QB is an every week player regardless.

[RipCity]

Thanks guys. I'll be reading that article very soon. It's long, but I'm here to learn. Appreciate it.