Pierre Garcon stats in games Kirk Cousins has played

[MTSuper7]

After last week, I was a little nervous about Garcon's 1 catch performance, so I got curious about what history tells us about Cousins' targets, specifically how often he has looked for Garcon in the past.

 

Here's a breakdown of what I found:

 

vs. ATL on 10/7/12 - 9 attempts, 2 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)

vs. BAL on 12/9/12 - 2 attempts, 1 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)

@. CLE on 12/16/12 - 37 attempts, 12 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 6-65-0)

@ DEN on 10/27/13 - 9 attempts, 3 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)

vs. KC on 12/8/13 - 16 attempts, 3 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)

@. ATL on 12/15/13 - 45 attempts, 10 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 7-129-1)

vs. DAL on 12/22/13 - 36 attempts, 18 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 11-144-1)

@. NYG on 12/29/13 - 49 attempts, 10 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 6-56-0)

vs. JAX on 9/14/14 - 33 attempts, 4 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)

 

There are a couple of things that stick out to me from this data (albeit small sample size):

 

1 - In games where Cousins goes into the week taking reps with the first team, knowing he will start that Sunday, Garcon averaged 12.5 targets. That extrapolates to 200 targets over a 16 game span which would have been 13 more targets than A.J. Green last year who led the NFL at 187 targets.

 

2 - Garcon averaged over a 7.5-98.5-0.5 line over those starts. That extrapolates to 120-1568-8 over a 16 game span.

 

3 - In games where Cousins came on in relief prior to this year, he targeted Garcon on just 25% of his passes. That's only 5% fewer than the 30% target rate in games he started.

 

4 - The 12% target rate from last week's Jacksonville game is the first Cousins game under new head coach Jay Gruden's offensive scheme. For what it's worth, Garcon was targeted on 12 of 37 RG3 passes in week 1 under Gruden's offensive scheme (32.4%).

 

So is there anything that can be assumed going forward?

 

This data at least makes me feel like last week was probably an anomaly. Garcon was the most targeted receiver last week, and he has been the most targeted receiver for Cousins in the games that Cousins has started this week. Further, Garcon has led the team in receiving yards in all four of those starts and led them in targets in 3 of the 4 (Santana Moss had 8 catches in the ATL game compared to Garcon's 7). Plus, even though the extrapolated numbers aren't a realistic expecation for what would happen with a Cousins-Garcon 16 game season, it does serve as a reminder that Garcon has a history as the clear cut #1 receiver for the team, and Jay Gruden's Cincinnati offenses ranked higher in each of his successive years in pass attempts, passing TDs and passing yards (and that was on a team that has a really good defense, meaning they weren't throwing out of necessity as often as Washington probably will).

 

I hope this info is useful to people holding or considering a trade for Garcon. It certainly helped me kill the end of my work day posting this!!!

[Favreforlife]

Very interesting!

[MTSuper7]

Sorry, some of my last week / this week comments make no sense in the paragraph talking about last weeks Jacksonville game being an anomaly.

[Grits and Shins]

I bet you would find in games where he came in for an injured RGIII that he often dumped it off to the RB or TE.

[blahwoop]

lets hope he has a better week. Garcon has killed me the last two weeks.

[ChampSampson]

nice write up

+1

[faceplant]

This does give me a bit more comfort starting Garcon.

I didn't like the 1 catch for 12 yards last week.

So thank you.

[silverback]

Good way to finish a day. I think I'll plug Garcon into my starting lineup. thanks

[ShuckCreations]

Excellent research. Thanks for the knowledge. Now...If we can just figure out what is going on with VJax.

[loaf]

nicely done

[Thews40]

nicely done

+3

[MTSuper7]

Thanks, everyone... I figured if as went through all that trouble for a little peace of mind about Garçon, others might appreciate the info.

[loaf]

I'm starting him over Floyd because of these findings

[VegasMax]

Very informative post!

[Dcat]

every now and then I find it worth the dime to renew my annual membership to the Huddle. Your post is a prime example. Thank you!

Edited September 18, 2014 by Dcat

[darin3]

I hate to slap this around with a dead trout, but those stats are misleading.

 

The Redskins are operating within a completely different offense this season.

 

Look, I'm a Garcon fan and even drafted him in a couple leagues, understanding that the ridiculous amount of targets would likely go down in the Gruden offense, but would still represent a huge PPR value based on his talent and schedule.

 

Garcon had 2 games last year... TWO... where he had less than 10 targets. That's nuts.

 

Now, we're only two games into 2014, and he started with 12 targets in Week 1 but dipped to FOUR in Week 2. That's a telling stat. Yes, the Skins whooped up on the Jags and didn't need to pass... but... Cousins finished with a 22-33 completions/attempts line. Putting that together with Garcon's 4 targets would raise a red flag, at least to me.

 

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that Cousins settles in and realizes who his best target is, despite the constructs of the Gruden offense.

[ChampSampson]

every now and then I find it worth the dime to renew my annual membership to the Huddle. Your post is a prime example. Thank you!

 

 

Forums are free, ldo.

[ChampSampson]

 

Now, we're only two games into 2014, and he started with 12 targets in Week 1 but dipped to FOUR in Week 2. That's a telling stat. Yes, the Skins whooped up on the Jags and didn't need to pass... but... Cousins finished with a 22-33 completions/attempts line. Putting that together with Garcon's 4 targets would raise a red flag, at least to me.

 

 

 

 

You obviously missed OP's opening point 1 & 3.

[MTSuper7]

I hate to slap this around with a dead trout, but those stats are misleading.

 

 

I appreciate the devil's advocate view - and what you say is true: 4 targets among 33 Cousins attempts is alarming. Why do you think I went to all this trouble to see what history says about the Cousins - Garcon connection?

 

I didn't watch the game last week, so I can't speak to whether or not the Jaguars game planned to take Garcon away (did they roll coverage that way?). For now, last week's game is an outlier. I don't see any reason to panic yet. The Redskins are very unlikely to get out to a big lead this weekend vs. Philly (or against most opponents). If Garcon gets another < 20% target game, then there will be cause for concern.

 

I'd say things are at DEFCON 4.

[ShuckCreations]

Looks like the stats point toward truth. Garcon was excellent today. Let's start a campaign to keep RGIII off the field.

Edited September 21, 2014 by ShuckCreations

[Thews40]

Really happy with the K. Cousins WW pickup on three teams this week... RGIII who?

Edited September 21, 2014 by Thews40

[gilthorp]

Went with Garcon in my local, but going up against Garcon, Jones, and Maclin in Outraged. Ouch.

[Cowboyz1]

Thank you. Great info.

[MTSuper7]

Garçon had 16 targets today which is 33% of Cousins' attempts (48). He also had over 1/3 of Cousins' completions (11 Garçon catches on 30 Cousins completions). Last week feels like a distant memory. This game was definitely about the most you can expect from Garçon. Let's hope he keeps getting this much attention!

[darin3]

As a Garcon owner (and Cousins, in another league), I'm impressed after one game. Let's hope it continues!!

 

Maybe all of the "experts" were reading too much into the whole "Jay Gruden offense = less looks for Garcon" stuff.