the outlaw Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 What is your view on the pros/cons of starting your QB (if you have 2 equally ranked options), based on your opponent's WR? I'm faced with Cutler vs. Rivers this week and my opponent starts Marshall. Not interested in a WDIS thread, but rather just curious as to your views on strategy in this situation. From my perspective, on the one hand if you start Cutler, you're off-setting any receiving TD Marshall receives, but on the other hand an off-set gives him an advantage in the QB position (if you don't have the ability to start one of his QB's WRs)... BTW, for what it's worth, I went w/Rivers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I never let my opponent's lineup affect mine. Last week I was starting Cutler when my opponent had Bennett go off for 3 TDs, honda happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 I never let my opponent's lineup affect mine. Last week I was starting Cutler when my opponent had Bennett go off for 3 TDs, honda happens. I would agree with you in general, but as I indicated, I view Cutler/Rivers as fairly equivalent starts (at least thus far) this season... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I would agree with you in general, but as I indicated, I view Cutler/Rivers as fairly equivalent starts (at least thus far) this season... I own them as well, first time Rivers plays for me, the Jaguars matchup is too juicy. I understand where you going, but its fruitless playing that kind of 'point cancelling' game with lineups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 Ughhhhh, Marshall just got what appeared to be an uncontested TD....grrrrrrrrrrrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I guess I just can't truly think of a situation where factors like matchup, weather, recent trending, gut feel etc. leave me with truly exact equal options that I would actually look at my opponents lineup. As a rule, I don't even look at my opponents roster until I have set my lineup, as I don't want non-factors like who my opponent has to influence my decision. In my opinion, it would be akin to drafting a lesser rated player just because I already had a player from the same team, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awahl63 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I never let my opponent's lineup affect mine. Last week I was starting Cutler when my opponent had Bennett go off for 3 TDs, honda happens. 100% this. Points are points. Shouldn't matter who your opponent is starting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 (edited) What is your view on the pros/cons of starting your QB (if you have 2 equally ranked options), based on your opponent's WR? I'm faced with Cutler vs. Rivers this week and my opponent starts Marshall. Not interested in a WDIS thread, but rather just curious as to your views on strategy in this situation. From my perspective, on the one hand if you start Cutler, you're off-setting any receiving TD Marshall receives, but on the other hand an off-set gives him an advantage in the QB position (if you don't have the ability to start one of his QB's WRs)... BTW, for what it's worth, I went w/Rivers... You start the players on your team whom you believe will score the most points, who your opponents starts is 100% irrelevant. Having matched players with your opponent doesn't cancel out points - doesn't "offset points" any more than any other player. Cutler's ability to "offset" points scored by Marshall is no more and no less than Rivers' ability to "offset" points scored by Marshall. The QB that scores the MOST points is the one that "offsets" Marshall's points the best. So suppose you start Cutler because your opponent starts Marshall. At the end of the day Cutler has 400 yards and 3 TDs while Marshall has 10 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs. Both went off ...so you are thinking "GREAT! My strategy paid off Marshall's points were 'offset' by Cutler's points, what a master manager I am". Then you see that Rivers had 500 yards and 5 TDs. How do you feel about your strategy then? Would you rather have started Rivers despite the fact that Cutler had a great day throwing to your opponent's WR? Sorry, but giving consideration to whom your opponent starts when deciding who to start is about the most inane "strategy" ever. You might as well pick your line up based on their last names or uniform colors. [ETA] The goal in fantasy football is to maximize the points you score with your lineup. When you are determining which players on your squad will score the most points the players your opponents starts is just not relevant. Edited September 28, 2014 by Grits and Shins 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 You might as well pick your line up based on their last names or uniform colors. Have actually seen people win office pick 'em pools using this "strategy"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I never let my opponent's lineup affect mine. Last week I was starting Cutler when my opponent had Bennett go off for 3 TDs, honda happens. You start the players on your team whom you believe will score the most points, who your opponents starts is 100% irrelevant. Having matched players with your opponent doesn't cancel out points - doesn't "offset points" any more than any other player. Cutler's ability to "offset" points scored by Marshall is no more and no less than Rivers' ability to "offset" points scored by Marshall. The QB that scores the MOST points is the one that "offsets" Marshall's points the best. So suppose you start Cutler because your opponent starts Marshall. At the end of the day Cutler has 400 yards and 3 TDs while Marshall has 10 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs. Both went off ...so you are thinking "GREAT! My strategy paid off Marshall's points were 'offset' by Cutler's points, what a master manager I am". Then you see that Rivers had 500 yards and 5 TDs. How do you feel about your strategy then? Would you rather have started Rivers despite the fact that Cutler had a great day throwing to your opponent's WR? Sorry, but giving consideration to whom your opponent starts when deciding who to start is about the most inane "strategy" ever. You might as well pick your line up based on their last names or uniform colors. [ETA] The goal in fantasy football is to maximize the points you score with your lineup. When you are determining which players on your squad will score the most points the players your opponents starts is just not relevant. That's not the case with Full Impact Scoring I will say that I do think looking at your opponents lineup is an important exercise. Why? Because there are times you may have guys that are very boom or bust versus someone with a lower ceiling but is a "safer" play. Looking at your opponents lineup allows you to assess if you are in need of a big game (go with the boom/bust guy) or just solid points (lower celling guy) to get you the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Have actually seen people win office pick 'em pools using this "strategy"... Well ... if that is the type of "strategy" you are comfortable using then more power to you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 That's not the case with Full Impact Scoring I will say that I do think looking at your opponents lineup is an important exercise. Why? Because there are times you may have guys that are very boom or bust versus someone with a lower ceiling but is a "safer" play. Looking at your opponents lineup allows you to assess if you are in need of a big game (go with the boom/bust guy) or just solid points (lower celling guy) to get you the win. I would argue that you don't really care WHO your opponent is starting but on how much they will score. Then you determine if you need to take chances in your lineup based on the ability of your "standard" lineup being able to compete with that projected scored. I get that ... but the bottom line is you are still trying to maximize your score. In some cases you might feel like you can play it safer and settle for a safer lower score versus taking chances to milk the most out of your lineup. That is NOT the same as saying ... "my opponent is starting Marshall so I should start Cutler instead of Rivers" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 That's not the case with Full Impact Scoring I will say that I do think looking at your opponents lineup is an important exercise. Why? Because there are times you may have guys that are very boom or bust versus someone with a lower ceiling but is a "safer" play. Looking at your opponents lineup allows you to assess if you are in need of a big game (go with the boom/bust guy) or just solid points (lower celling guy) to get you the win. That's the only league where I look at my opponent's lineup 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 That is NOT the same as saying ... "my opponent is starting Marshall so I should start Cutler instead of Rivers" 100% agree about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I would argue that you don't really care WHO your opponent is starting but on how much they will score. Then you determine if you need to take chances in your lineup based on the ability of your "standard" lineup being able to compete with that projected scored. I get that ... Well put. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 That's not the case with Full Impact Scoring Must be a chess match of lineup changes ... which is another thing I didn't bring up ... if the OP starts Cutler because his oppenent started Marshall what does he do when his opponent makes line up changes at the last minute Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Must be a chess match of lineup changes ... which is another thing I didn't bring up ... if the OP starts Cutler because his oppenent started Marshall what does he do when his opponent makes line up changes at the last minute Well in Full Impact you can't see the opponent's lineup. And after all the pluses and minuses it's usually only a 5 point change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Cutler - 19.14 points - 22/34 256 yards 2 TD, 2 INT ... 29 rushing yards Rivers - 27.08 points - 29/39 377 yards 3 TDs Marshall - 9.90 points - 2 receptions for 19 yards and 1 TD So which QB "offset" Marshall's points the best? If Marshall's stat line had been 10 receptions for 150 yards and 3 TDS ... which QB would have "offset" Marshall's points the best? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mano22 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 The point that you should always start the player that gives you most expected points is almost always true, but when my team is WAY better than my opponent (for whatever reason, good draft, luck, injuries, bye weeks, etc) I will sometimes start a QB who is throwing to my opponents WR, or vice versa (if it is a relatively close call.) If you are favored by 30+ points, they need to get pretty lucky to win. One of the ways this can happen is if one of their few good players (say, Marshall) blows up. In this case, if you start Cutler over Rivers, you are somewhat hedging this blowup potential. It is actually a situation where you can give up some expected points in order to increase the chance you win the game, as crazy as that sounds. Similarly if my team is way worse than my opponent, I would specifically start Rivers over Cutler in the above situation because I need to increase my variance, and starting Cutler vs Marshall lowers it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 The point that you should always start the player that gives you most expected points is almost always true, but when my team is WAY better than my opponent (for whatever reason, good draft, luck, injuries, bye weeks, etc) I will sometimes start a QB who is throwing to my opponents WR, or vice versa (if it is a relatively close call.) If you are favored by 30+ points, they need to get pretty lucky to win. One of the ways this can happen is if one of their few good players (say, Marshall) blows up. In this case, if you start Cutler over Rivers, you are somewhat hedging this blowup potential. It is actually a situation where you can give up some expected points in order to increase the chance you win the game, as crazy as that sounds. Similarly if my team is way worse than my opponent, I would specifically start Rivers over Cutler in the above situation because I need to increase my variance, and starting Cutler vs Marshall lowers it. This makes sense to me. I do the same for the same reasons...though it is very rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 The point that you should always start the player that gives you most expected points is almost always true, but when my team is WAY better than my opponent (for whatever reason, good draft, luck, injuries, bye weeks, etc) I will sometimes start a QB who is throwing to my opponents WR, or vice versa (if it is a relatively close call.) If you are favored by 30+ points, they need to get pretty lucky to win. One of the ways this can happen is if one of their few good players (say, Marshall) blows up. In this case, if you start Cutler over Rivers, you are somewhat hedging this blowup potential. It is actually a situation where you can give up some expected points in order to increase the chance you win the game, as crazy as that sounds. Similarly if my team is way worse than my opponent, I would specifically start Rivers over Cutler in the above situation because I need to increase my variance, and starting Cutler vs Marshall lowers it. LOL ... you are not "hedging" anything ... the predicted margin of victory doesn't factor in either ... you start the player you believe will score the most points. Predicted victory margin is no more relevant than the color of their uniforms, the attractiveness of their girlfriends/wives, how hot the cheerleaders are, how expensive the cars the drive .... If you predict Cutler will score 100 points and Rivers will score 150 ... then you start Rivers regardless of who your opponent starts. The simple fact that Marshall blows up does not lead to the conclusion that Cutler will blow up AND score more points than Rivers. With this kind of thinking I am baffled why you guys waste your money on the Huddle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mano22 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Guy, you are just dead wrong on this. Sure you almost always start the guy with the highest expectancy. But lets look at the scenario where it's Bears vs Bolts on MNF. You can either start Cutler or Rivers, you opponent is playing Marshall. You are up by 30. So you need Marshall to outscore your QB by 30 points in order to lose. You have to start Cutler in this situation NO MATTER what, even if he is expected to get 10 less points than Rivers! There is almost no way for Marshall to score 30 more than Cutler, because Cutler will get at least half a point for every point Marchall scores. So Marshall would have to put up like a 50 point game while catchign almost all of Cutlers passes for you to lose. What is the probability of this? Probably something like 1-2%. I could maybe see you losing this game 1 out of 50 times or so. But Marshall could easily outscore Rivers by 30. What if Marshall just has an amazing game, 10 catches, 150 yds, and 3 TDs or whatever (38 points in a half PPR) instead of al off the charts/all time record setting game? Rivers could easily drop a 5 point stinker, seen it a million times. So what is the probability you lose if you start Rivers? I dunno, you are certainly still a huge favorite, but maybe 4-5%? Certainly much more likely than you chances of losing if you started Cutler. Now obv I just made up numbers, and the scenario as well, but the underlying point still applies. It is clear you have a better chance of winning by starting Cutler, even if Rivers is expected to score more points. 46k posts and you don't understand this simple variance vs expectancy point? You must be REALLY lucky! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 LOL ... you are not "hedging" anything ... the predicted margin of victory doesn't factor in either ... you start the player you believe will score the most points. Predicted victory margin is no more relevant than the color of their uniforms, the attractiveness of their girlfriends/wives, how hot the cheerleaders are, how expensive the cars the drive .... If you predict Cutler will score 100 points and Rivers will score 150 ... then you start Rivers regardless of who your opponent starts. The simple fact that Marshall blows up does not lead to the conclusion that Cutler will blow up AND score more points than Rivers. With this kind of thinking I am baffled why you guys waste your money on the Huddle. Just because you think Rivers will outscore Cutler doesn't mean it will happen. if you start rivers and he under-performs, and cutler and marshall connect for 150 yards and 3 TDs you just lost that projected edge you gave yourself. Where as, if you started Cutler and rivers goes off and Marshall doesn't have a big game, your margin of victory is still the same and may even go up if cutler throws a decent game but fails to connect significantly with Marshall. Its the same as a decision to play a high-risk high reward guy like VJax or Darren Sproles over a TY Hilton or Monte Ball, Even though you may "project" VJax or Sproles to have a better game, you might give the consistent guy a start because your match-up tells you that it isn't worth the risk and vice versa. There is an inherent risk with all strategies that you employ with your weekly lineups, knowing when to mitigate risk or take risks based on match ups one of the keys to consistent performance. We all do it, none of us are fortunate enough to ever have studs at all positions. If you don't like the strategy of starting your QB based on the others stud WR when your team is projected to have a sizable advantage then don't do it. I think it is a good strategy in specific situations, why risk a qb throwing a dud, when, if your other qb throws a dud, a player from your opponents team gets a donut as well (when your projected totals are lopsided)? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Guy, you are just dead wrong on this. Sure you almost always start the guy with the highest expectancy. But lets look at the scenario where it's Bears vs Bolts on MNF. You can either start Cutler or Rivers, you opponent is playing Marshall. You are up by 30. So you need Marshall to outscore your QB by 30 points in order to lose. You have to start Cutler in this situation NO MATTER what, even if he is expected to get 10 less points than Rivers! There is almost no way for Marshall to score 30 more than Cutler, because Cutler will get at least half a point for every point Marchall scores. So Marshall would have to put up like a 50 point game while catchign almost all of Cutlers passes for you to lose. What is the probability of this? Probably something like 1-2%. I could maybe see you losing this game 1 out of 50 times or so. But Marshall could easily outscore Rivers by 30. What if Marshall just has an amazing game, 10 catches, 150 yds, and 3 TDs or whatever (38 points in a half PPR) instead of al off the charts/all time record setting game? Rivers could easily drop a 5 point stinker, seen it a million times. So what is the probability you lose if you start Rivers? I dunno, you are certainly still a huge favorite, but maybe 4-5%? Certainly much more likely than you chances of losing if you started Cutler. Now obv I just made up numbers, and the scenario as well, but the underlying point still applies. It is clear you have a better chance of winning by starting Cutler, even if Rivers is expected to score more points. 46k posts and you don't understand this simple variance vs expectancy point? You must be REALLY lucky! a couple people get it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 (edited) a couple people get it 2 people out of thousands, so obviously they are right Starting a player on your team because he has more upside and you need to score a ton to beat a good team, there is some legit reason for that. But making line-up decisions based on your opponents roster is useless. Edited September 30, 2014 by stevegrab Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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