MTSuper7 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Local talk radio in Detroit metro doesn't care much for Matthew Stafford. Among the numbers they cite when bashing him, the biggest one that sticks out is Stafford's 2-28 record against teams with winning records over his 67 game career. Well, they started to opine that Stafford might be dependent on Calvin Johnson for his success and that the team struggles without Calvin to throw to. I got curious about this, so I dug up some stats. For the purposes of this post, I considered 62 Stafford games with Calvin Johnson and 5 without him. Three games truly were without Calvin, and I threw in the last two games in which Calvin was active yet ineffective. Here's what I found: Stafford career stats in those 62 games: 1514-2538-17878 with 116 TDs and 77 INTs. - This averages to 24.4 of 40.9 (59.65% completion rate), 288.35 Yds per game, 1.79 TDs per game and 1.21 INTs per game. Yds per attempt is 7.04 while his yards per completion is 11.81. In the five games without Calvin (effectively): 103-171-1171 with 5 TDs and 2 INTs - This averages to 20.6 of 34.2 (60.23% completion rate), 234.2 Yds per game, 1 TD per game and 0.4 INTs per game. Yds per attempt is 6.85 while his yards per completion is 11.37. Stafford's five games without Calvin came against teams with a combined 18-40-2 record, and the only win among them was the week 4 win over the Jets this season. That includes losing in 2009 to the lowly 1-15 Rams (the only win of the Rams' 2009 season). The biggest impacts that I can see from this data (albeit a small sample size) is the low TD per attempt in those 5 games (2.9% compared to 4.4% in the 62 games with Calvin) and the lower yards per game (almost 55 ypg without Calvin). In fact, the Lions have averaged a paltry 14 ppg in those games against teams with an under .400 winning percentage (the best of those teams was the 8-7-1 Packers last year). I know there isn't much data to go on for what to expect when Calvin isn't in there. But I found this interesting to note, and it made me realize just how Calvin dependent Stafford might be (particularly Stafford's fantasy value). Also, in looking at Calvin's game logs, I noticed Calvin has an outlier game in 2010 against the Jets. In short, he got lost on Revis Island. Yet Stafford went 20-36 (55%) with 2 TDs, a rushing TD and 240 yards passing with no INTs (10 ypc, 6.67 ypa). So his averages were once again lower than career averages in yards passed, completion percentage, ypc and ypa. Digest and enjoy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Good work dude. I think it makes perfect sense that a QB would perform worse when his #1 WR is out, particularly when his #1 is THE #1. I bet Stafford is not the only QB who is dependent on his WR1 in a measurable way. Without doing the legwork to prove it, I feel it's safe to say that a lot of Matt Ryan's crapiness last year had to do with Julio being out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Good work dude. I think it makes perfect sense that a QB would perform worse when his #1 WR is out, particularly when his #1 is THE #1. I bet Stafford is not the only QB who is dependent on his WR1 in a measurable way. Without doing the legwork to prove it, I feel it's safe to say that a lot of Matt Ryan's crapiness last year had to do with Julio being out. Yeah, I don't think my goal was to prove that Stafford suffers without Calvin, but what the measurable amount of suffering might be. 55 YPG and almost 1 TD per game is a pretty big hit in fantasy football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sausagekingchi Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 And also Stafford sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 So in summary....Matt Stafford suffers quite a bit when Calvin Johnson is out of the lineup. This is like saying Matt Ryan is a better QB at home than on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 He's sitting until Megatron's healthy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I assume these weeks game was not part of your analysis, s In the five games without Calvin (effectively): 103-171-1171 with 5 TDs and 2 INTs - This averages to 20.6 of 34.2 (60.23% completion rate), 234.2 Yds per game, 1 TD per game and 0.4 INTs per game. Yds per attempt is 6.85 while his yards per completion is 11.37. Stafford's five games without Calvin came against teams with a combined 18-40-2 record, and the only win among them was the week 4 win over the Jets this season. That includes losing in 2009 to the lowly 1-15 Rams (the only win of the Rams' 2009 season). I assume that this weeks win over the Vikings wasn't included in your analysis. Good info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishPride Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Good stuff, that's like dissecting a batters swing, The real meat and potatoes, his route trees and offense suffer also because the defensive scheme's change because there is no Megatron to scheme against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Great info. I have Stafford on 2 of 4 teams and expected much more. I sat him for Cousins this week and am glad I did. Without Calvin and Bush, things are different. If they can win a few games until Calvin gets back, when he does things will change. Safford is streaky... you just have to know when you can sit him if you have other options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sausagekingchi Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Stafford can be streaky even with Calvin in the lineup. He was absolutely awful down the stretch last season. Over the last 7 games he threw 11 picks and lost two fumbles. Heck in one game he fumbled the ball 5 times. Lions were 1-6 over those games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 So in summary....Matt Stafford suffers quite a bit when Calvin Johnson is out of the lineup. This is like saying Matt Ryan is a better QB at home than on the road. The point was offering tangible value to the amount of suffer to Stafford's numbers sans Megatron. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Something else I don't understand... I know Eric Ebron is a rookie, but he was drafted in the early first round, and usually guys drafted that early are expected to produce. I haven't paid much attention to Stafford's reads to see if they are calling many plays with Ebron as the first or second read. It is puzzling to me why he isn't a bigger part of the offense by now. Especially when they clearly need some playmakers. It could be that the TE in the Lions' offense is more of a check down option and that Stafford is more of a risk taker / gunslinger than the kind of guy who just takes what the defense gives him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Stafford is streaky... sit him this week. He was money for more games than he wasn't last year. The bitter pill for most is that he caved during the playoffs last year...this year is not last year. When Calvin is back, then play him... it's a symbiotic relationship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
splotchman Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Stafford is streaky... sit him this week. He was money for more games than he wasn't last year. The bitter pill for most is that he caved during the playoffs last year...this year is not last year. When Calvin is back, then play him... it's a symbiotic relationship. +1. Once Megatron comes back, I'll be firing Stafford back up as a Top 5/6 weekly QB. As a Lions homer and Stafford owner this year, I was really hoping Stafford was going to make the leap. However, partly due to a pretty poor offensive line, Matty boy hasn't done that. So I think the best we can hope for here is Calvin to get back and become the primary chess piece the Lions offense needs to help create the diversions necessary to free up its players to start getting more plays, yards, and ultimately scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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