Some interesting numbers

[rajncajn]

You always hear owners talk about staying away from specific teams and it got me wondering how teams rank in terms of overall fantasy production. This may or may not help anyone with their FF decisions, but I thought it would be interesting to look at anyway.

 

So, in a standard PPR league, here is what I came up with taking all players who produced a stat line for each team in the past 6 weeks. I must say, I'm a bit surprised by a few of the teams lingering near the bottom:

 

1 IND 717.55

2 ATL 642.5

3 SDC 630.4

4 BAL 610.6

5 DAL 597.3

6 CHI 596.15

7 WAS 594.3

8 PHI 586.8

9 CAR 570.3

10 NEP 569.9

11 NOS 560

12 GBP 558.65

13 DEN 552.8

14 PIT 548.3

15 SFO 539.9

16 NYG 527.65

17 BUF 504.65

18 CIN 492.5

19 TEN 477.9

20 CLE 469.65

21 STL 466.7

22 DET 463.6

23 TBB 462.4

24 HOU 460.4

25 NYJ 449.7

26 MIN 448.8

27 JAC 442.15

28 KCC 441.2

29 SEA 435.45

30 MIA 433.9

31 ARI 416

32 OAK 389.25

 

And just for reference I decided to look at IDP as well. I'm definitely going to go back and look at where some of these points are coming from on a few teams, such as the Giants. I know they are probably spending an awful lot of time on the field, but to be ranked near the top seems a bit off given they don't really have a player like a Lavonte David raking in the tackles. And again, a few of the teams near the bottom (looking at you Seattle) are a bit perplexing.

 

1 TBB 825.5

2 HOU 795.1

3 PHI 769.5

4 BUF 765.5

5 GBP 751.5

6 NYG 731

7 TEN 727

8 NYJ 709

9 JAC 702

10 ATL 700.5

11 CAR 695.5

12 BAL 673.5

13 NEP 668.5

14 MIN 650

15 DET 647.5

16 SDC 647

17 WAS 640.5

18 MIA 629

19 CHI 625.5

20 CIN 614.5

21 IND 613.5

22 PIT 608.75

23 SFO 605

24 DAL 602.5

25 OAK 597

26 CLE 589

27 DEN 582.5

28 SEA 580.5

29 ARI 565

30 KCC 554

31 STL 535

32 NOS 518.5

[rajncajn]

So for the Giants, two of the top IDP scorers are both DBs, Antrel Rolle & Prince Amukamura. Kinda telling right there why the Giants record is what it is.

[marcheese]

You should look at average points per week for the teams as opposed to total points. A lot of teams near the bottom have had byes.

[stevegrab]

Teams that throw a lot will have higher numbers than those that run more, due to points for both the TD pass and TD rec. Even if you only do 3-4 pts for passing TD, that is still 50% ,pre points for every TD pass vs. TD run. Plus the points per reception, also adds to that.

 

As for the teams at the bottom, of the bottom 10, I'm curious which are surprises to rajn. Many just have bad teams overall (TB, JAC, OAK) or at least bad offenses. Others that are good (ARI, SEA) rely more on defense and running. Haven't seen MIA play much but I get the feeling they run a lot too.

 

What surprises me is DEN is more lower top third to mid pack than in the top 5 on offense.

[kwolf68]

Seattle has been a horrible fantasy defense so far, but they have also had to deal with some great offenses lead by some great QBs....I remain hopeful they will turn it around.

[rajncajn]

Ok, per request I went with the 6 week average score per player rather than the overall. I also went ahead and filtered out any players scoring less than 2 points since I know a lot of those may have come in on a single down. That would probably need to be adjusted more to get an accurate picture of players who are actually part of a typical game plan. To be clear, this would be the total average PPG by team. Here are the results again for both Offense & IDP:

 

Offense

1 NOS 123.59

2 CAR 121.25

3 SDC 120.31

4 IND 119.43

5 DEN 117.88

6 BAL 117.20

7 JAC 114.37

8 WAS 114.31

9 ATL 113.89

10 ARI 111.91

11 NEP 111.62

12 MIN 110.19

13 CIN 106.48

14 KCC 106.18

15 BUF 104.70

16 STL 102.93

17 TBB 102.57

18 CLE 102.33

19 CHI 99.69

20 DAL 99.45

21 NYG 98.87

22 PHI 98.53

23 TEN 95.13

24 SFO 94.19

25 GBP 93.98

26 DET 93.00

27 MIA 92.69

28 PIT 92.67

29 OAK 91.77

30 SEA 89.50

31 HOU 80.46

32 NYJ 78.97

 

IDP

1 TBB 161.60

2 MIA 157.13

3 HOU 148.74

4 SDC 140.65

5 OAK 139.37

6 BUF 138.82

7 PHI 138.69

8 KCC 131.44

9 CIN 131.02

10 GBP 130.02

11 NYG 129.50

12 NEP 129.02

13 TEN 128.68

14 CAR 128.33

15 CHI 126.37

16 DEN 126.00

17 CLE 125.34

18 DET 124.47

19 BAL 123.70

20 WAS 123.04

21 SEA 122.65

22 DAL 122.02

23 ARI 121.98

24 ATL 120.48

25 NYJ 120.42

26 JAC 120.32

27 IND 119.80

28 PIT 116.88

29 MIN 113.92

30 NOS 112.98

31 STL 109.93

32 SFO 106.72

[rajncajn]

Teams that throw a lot will have higher numbers than those that run more, due to points for both the TD pass and TD rec. Even if you only do 3-4 pts for passing TD, that is still 50% ,pre points for every TD pass vs. TD run. Plus the points per reception, also adds to that.

 

As for the teams at the bottom, of the bottom 10, I'm curious which are surprises to rajn. Many just have bad teams overall (TB, JAC, OAK) or at least bad offenses. Others that are good (ARI, SEA) rely more on defense and running. Haven't seen MIA play much but I get the feeling they run a lot too.

 

What surprises me is DEN is more lower top third to mid pack than in the top 5 on offense.

 

Keep in mind the idea of this is to try to get a picture of how teams rank in generating FF production per player, so it wouldn't really make a difference if it's a running team. By default, that teams production is going to be more focused on one player so it makes sense to rank them lower.

 

Teams that suprised me on offense were Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit and just outside the bottom 10, Philly. Not necessarily all for the same reason. I'm surprised that Seattle isn't generating more fantasy points, but I guess when your primary weapon is Lynch you're going to have a lower average. Green Bay should be doing much better with their offense. With Cobb, Jordy & Rodgers you'd think they'd be near the top. The same goes for Detroit and Philly.

 

On Defense the second table turned out to be a bit more accurate with Seattle jumping up. They haven't been generating the turnovers this year, so I wouldn't expect them to be much higher.

Seattle has been a horrible fantasy defense so far, but they have also had to deal with some great offenses lead by some great QBs....I remain hopeful they will turn it around.

 

 

Just to be clear, the defensive numbers are not a reflection of the team defense rather they are taken from individual playes which would include stats such as tackles, passes defended and forced fumbles which are normally not factored into team defense scoring. That's why you see teams like Tampa & Oakland at the top, because they spend a lot of time on the field.

[stevegrab]

rajn thanks for the number crunching and the explanation, its good info for sure.. Philly is a surprise based on pre-season ranking, but having watched them a few times I just don't see that same high powered offense (except against Giants last weekend). But they've done a lot on defense, so the O hasn't had to (or gotten the chance to) score as much.

 

One interesting thing I read today about the PHI offense today is Ertz was on the field a lot less last week (30 of 73 snaps), they used Celek more (57 snaps) instead because he is a better blocker. And the running game was much better. Ertz was dropped in our league for Cook (owner was only carrying 1 TE and PHI is on bye).