How does 6 point passing TDs effect QB value?

[JShady]

All of my local leagues except one use 6pt TDs for QBs. Almost none of the information / rankings online is catered to this scoring system. How do you guys feel it effects the value of QBs? Do you think it should make Luck / Rodgers first rounders? Or do the rankings stay the same because all QBs get 6 pts?

[Asskickas]

In relation to other qbs the rankings won't change much but in relation to other positions qb will be more valuable... Enough to warrant a high octane qb going in rd 1 which would bump a wr/rb from round 1.

[Zooty]

It doesn't unless you are playing with 16 teams or more.

 

The drop-off isn't significant enough between the pool of QBs to justify passing on harder to find positions earlier in the draft where the drop-off and overall lack of options is greater

 

Search for the Zero QB Theorom

 

http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

Edited August 12, 2015 by Zooty

[loaf]

if you subscribed to thehuddle, you could plug in your league's scoring system and have it spit out a customized cheat sheet of the top 200 players. Just saying

[Finn5033]

I play in 3 leagues all with different scoring. It's worth it to pay for a subscription or a draft pack so you can customize your draft sheets.

[Cowboyz1]

Consider this, good QBs throw 35 or more of them? Now show me a RB or WR or TE that scores 35 or more TDs in a year.

 

So if a QB is worth 35+ or twice any other position. The guy that owns the ones that throw for 40+ have have an advantage. Some two QB leagues means they are very valuable when you can get two of them.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Cowboyz1

[Grits and Shins]

< sigh >

 

Same old, same old

 

The relative value of the QBs as compared to themselves is unchanged. There is no change in the drop off from the first QB to the last QB, regardless of how much each TD is worth.

 

The relative value of the QBs as compared to other positions is essentially unchanged as well. In the end you still have to field a full fantasy team.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Grits and Shins

[Big Country]

Consider this, good QBs throw 35 or more of them? Now show me a RB or WR or TE that scores 35 or more TDs in a year.

 

So if a QB is worth 35+ or twice any other position. The guy that owns the ones that throw for 40+ have have an advantage. Some two QB leagues means they are very valuable when you can get two of them.

 

The QB is not worth twice the other positions though, as that is not comparing apples to apples.

 

Value is determined by how much does the QB outscore the others QBs, compared to how much does a RB or WR outscore the other RBs or WRs.

 

THe move from 4 to 6 points adds 2 points to a QBs point total for each TD pass. Assuming a 12 team league, last year the top QB in terms of TD passes (Luck) threw 40 TDs and the #12 QB (Flacco/Tannehill) threw 27 TDs - a difference of 13 TDs or 26 fantasy points over the course of the season, which comes out to an increase of 1.6 PPG (26/16) over the course of the season from the #1 guy to the #12 guy - obviously the effect is even less for all of the QBs closer to the top guy.

 

All it does is increase the volume of points from the QBs, but has a minimal effect on the difference in scoring between the QBs.

 

 

ETA: QB value in a 2QB league is a different animal (as baselines and positional requirements are different), and looking at overall QB value to a lineup (which needs to take into account a leagues scoring system and lineup requirements) is also a different discussion, but a move from 4 to 6 point passing TDs has a minimal effect on the QB value.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Big Country

[stethant]

 

The QB is not worth twice the other positions though, as that is not comparing apples to apples.

 

Value is determined by how much does the QB outscore the others QBs, compared to how much does a RB or WR outscore the other RBs or WRs.

 

THe move from 4 to 6 points adds 2 points to a QBs point total for each TD pass. Assuming a 12 team league, last year the top QB in terms of TD passes (Luck) threw 40 TDs and the #12 QB (Flacco/Tannehill) threw 27 TDs - a difference of 13 TDs or 26 fantasy points over the course of the season, which comes out to an increase of 1.6 PPG (26/16) over the course of the season from the #1 guy to the #12 guy - obviously the effect is even less for all of the QBs closer to the top guy.

 

I agree with this but....you also have to factor in yardage differences and how the QB is scoring their points.

 

In total for 2014, Andrew Luck scored, over a 16-game season, an average of ~7.5 more points per game than Joe Flacco (this analysis subtracts for interceptions - a correction not relevant for all leagues).

 

I would also point out that a difference in points for a passing TD theoretically CAN change relative QB value if one QB is generating more of their fantasy points from passing TDs, whereas another is generating points from rushing yards/TDs.

 

As an example, at 1 pt per 25 passing yards, 4pts passing TD, 0.1 pt/rushing yard, 6 pt rushing TD:

QBx: 4000 passing yds, 30 passing TDs, no rushing yards or TDs = 280 pts

QBy: 3000 passing yds, 20 passing TDs, 440 rushing yds and 6 rushing TDs = 280 pts

 

If you change passing TDs now to 6 pts - but keep the stats exactly the same - you get:

QBx: 4000 passing yds, 30 passing TDs, no rushing yards/TDs = 340 pts

QBy: 3000 passing yds, 20 passing TDs, 440 rushing yd and 6 rushing TDs = 320 pts

 

You can see that changing the # of points for a passing TD changed the relative QB value - QBx's value just increased over QBy. As long as you know the particulars or your scoring system and calculate accordingly, you can make the most educated guess on QB value.

Edited August 12, 2015 by stethant

[HowboutthemCowboys]

:popcorn:

[stevegrab]

It changes their value relative to other positions, but not within the QB position (for the most part). There is some change, just a matter of is it enough to make QBx on a list a better option than RB/WR/TE x, and the trade off value if you do that or not (who do get at QB instead). Some argue there is no value change or not enough to matter, zero QB theorem and so forth.

 

But I have to ask, would these same people say that increasing rushing TDs from 6 to 8 points would not increase the value of RB relative to other positions? While 1-2 PPG may not seem like much look at the end of year stats for players and tell me how many players have PPG averages that are that close.

[Zooty]

:popcorn:

 

[Big Country]

I agree with this but....you also have to factor in yardage differences and how the QB is scoring their points.

 

In total for 2014, Andrew Luck scored, over a 16-game season, an average of ~7.5 more points per game than Joe Flacco (this analysis subtracts for interceptions - a correction not relevant for all leagues).

 

I would also point out that a difference in points for a passing TD theoretically CAN change relative QB value if one QB is generating more of their fantasy points from passing TDs, whereas another is generating points from rushing yards/TDs.

 

As an example, at 1 pt per 25 passing yards, 4pts passing TD, 0.1 pt/rushing yard, 6 pt rushing TD:

QBx: 4000 passing yds, 30 passing TDs, no rushing yards or TDs = 280 pts

QBy: 3000 passing yds, 20 passing TDs, 440 rushing yds and 6 rushing TDs = 280 pts

 

If you change passing TDs now to 6 pts - but keep the stats exactly the same - you get:

QBx: 4000 passing yds, 30 passing TDs, no rushing yards/TDs = 340 pts

QBy: 3000 passing yds, 20 passing TDs, 440 rushing yd and 6 rushing TDs = 320 pts

 

You can see that changing the # of points for a passing TD changed the relative QB value - QBx's value just increased over QBy. As long as you know the particulars or your scoring system and calculate accordingly, you can make the most educated guess on QB value.

 

That was not the question asked though. Can it shift which QB you rank at #5 instead of #7 because they throw more TDs but less yardage - sure, but the overall effect on QB value in terms of your fantasy league is negligible.

[keggerz]

[Big Country]

It changes their value relative to other positions, but not within the QB position (for the most part). There is some change, just a matter of is it enough to make QBx on a list a better option than RB/WR/TE x, and the trade off value if you do that or not (who do get at QB instead). Some argue there is no value change or not enough to matter, zero QB theorem and so forth.

 

But I have to ask, would these same people say that increasing rushing TDs from 6 to 8 points would not increase the value of RB relative to other positions? While 1-2 PPG may not seem like much look at the end of year stats for players and tell me how many players have PPG averages that are that close.

 

It would increase RB scoring minimally (leading RBs last year had 13 rushing TDs - Lynch/Murray) and it would increase their value minimally (the #24 RB had 5 TDs, so they would gain 1 PPG in value over the #24 RB) and as whole they would score 26 more points over the course of the season compared to the other positions (assuming no other scoring system change was made).

 

So yes, they do gain value, but the top rushing TD scorers would only gain 1PPG over the #24 rushing TD scorer, so it is pretty clear that the increase is negligible and likely would have virtually no effect on how RBs are valued compared to the other positions. Also, with how RB scoring is bunched (5 scored 9 TDs, 7 scored 8 TDs, thus no change in value for those players compared to the others that scored the same number of TDs), the effect is further minimized.

 

Just like the move from 4 to 6 point passing TDs will have a slight increase to QB values, but it is a very minimal amount that would likely not have a significant adjustment be made to overall player values.

[Grits and Shins]

But what if I make passing TDs worth 10,000 points each ....

[Big Country]

But what if I make passing TDs worth 10,000 points each ....

 

Then you just hope your QB outscores your opponents QB.. no different than what you have to do in leagues with points per completion, one point per 10 yards passing and a plethora of other rules that make QB scoring so high that they are 50+% of a team;s usual weekly score that they essentially become the only player that matters to your fantasy team's success.

 

 

But the relative value of QBs within the position would be virtually unchanged.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

 

Then you just hope your QB outscores your opponents QB.. no different than what you have to do in leagues with points per completion, one point per 10 yards passing and a plethora of other rules that make QB scoring so high that they are 50+% of a team;s usual weekly score that they essentially become the only player that matters to your fantasy team's success.

 

 

But the relative value of QBs within the position would be virtually unchanged.

/thread

[ChampSampson]

Ask Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, Dree Brees, Peyton Manning owners about 6pt TDs. When you have it going on...it can be a huge difference maker. Your talking about one player putting up 25-40% of what most most teams put up -- every single week.

[keggerz]

Ask Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, Dree Brees, Peyton Manning owners about 6pt TDs. When you have it going on...it can be a huge difference maker. Your talking about one player putting up 25-40% of what most most teams put up -- every single week.

I did, I asked to the tune of around 600 games over 7 years and guess what, the majority of teams still won their games without their QBs points.

 

Top-3 ADP QBs from 2006-2012

Wins...../.....% of time win total was achieved

0-1...../.....1.33%

2-3...../.....9.33%

4-5...../.....10.67%

6-7...../.....20.00%

8-9...../.....33.33%

10-11...../.....24.00%

12-13...../.....1.33%

 

An ADP top-3 QB is supposed to give you an advantage. When almost half of them (41.33%) don't win more than 7 games I'd say that's not much of an advantage.

Edited August 13, 2015 by keggerz

[Grits and Shins]

Ask Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, Dree Brees, Peyton Manning owners about 6pt TDs. When you have it going on...it can be a huge difference maker. Your talking about one player putting up 25-40% of what most most teams put up -- every single week.

But when they have to also start Skip Hicks, Robert Woods, and Jared Cook ... the points from QB are pretty but not enough to win

Edited August 13, 2015 by Grits and Shins

[keggerz]

But when they have to also start Skip Hicks, Robert Woods, and Jared Cook ... the points from QB are pretty but not enough to win

The bigger issue that fuels that perception is that they had one of those QBs and won by 37 points and they say, look my QB went off and got me a win! The reality is that more often than not they didn't even need the QBs points or only needed a fraction of them at best.

Edited August 13, 2015 by keggerz

[ChampSampson]

I did, I asked to the tune of around 600 games over 7 years and guess what, the majority of teams still won their games without their QBs points.

 

Those are phantom seasons I just mentioned, whereas; Peyton's 55TD season being the latest. In those examples he took many people to the glory land in 6pt leagues.

 

I would be interested in your stat gathering if its in displayable form? Curious to see the point distribution and drop-off.

[keggerz]

 

Those are phantom seasons I just mentioned, whereas; Peyton's 55TD season being the latest. In those examples he took many people to the glory land in 6pt leagues.

 

I would be interested in your stat gathering if its in displayable form? Curious to see the point distribution and drop-off.

There's a point distribution chart in the article. http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

 

If you want the raw data I'll have to see if I can dig it up off my laptop that's been retired.

[keggerz]

 

Those are phantom seasons I just mentioned, whereas; Peyton's 55TD season being the latest. In those examples he took many people to the glory land in 6pt leagues.

 

I would be interested in your stat gathering if its in displayable form? Curious to see the point distribution and drop-off.

People like to point to Peyton that year but truth is he wasn't an overly early QB draft wise...He wasn't a late round QB but I believe his ADP was round 3 but I vaguely remember him making it into round 4 in quite a few expert drafts.