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How does 6 point passing TDs effect QB value?


JShady
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I did, I asked to the tune of around 600 games over 7 years and guess what, the majority of teams still won their games without their QBs points.

 

Top-3 ADP QBs from 2006-2012

Wins...../.....% of time win total was achieved

0-1...../.....1.33%

2-3...../.....9.33%

4-5...../.....10.67%

6-7...../.....20.00%

8-9...../.....33.33%

10-11...../.....24.00%

12-13...../.....1.33%

 

An ADP top-3 QB is supposed to give you an advantage. When almost half of them (41.33%) don't win more than 7 games I'd say that's not much of an advantage.

Stats :clap:
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I took Brady at 7 overall in 2012 in the NFFC and that is 6 pts per TD pass and I did ok that season.............but I wouldn't recommend even taking Luck or Rodgers in the 1st round this year.

 

That said I play in NFFC, RTS, FFPC and FFWC and NFFC is the only league that gives 6 the rest 4 and what it does for me is it moves Luck and Rodgers from the bottom of my tier 3 to the top of my tier 3. The other QBs do the same thing they just move up slightly as a group.

 

That's how I see it.

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Those are phantom seasons I just mentioned, whereas; Peyton's 55TD season being the latest. In those examples he took many people to the glory land in 6pt leagues.

 

I would be interested in your stat gathering if its in displayable form? Curious to see the point distribution and drop-off.

When a QB goes off like Peyton did that year historically they were not predicted to do so and historically they don't do it the next year. So the big problem I see with pointing to an outlier example like that one is how can you predict whic QBs will be the outliers this year? And some years there are no outliers so you could have waited ti mid to late rounds to get essentially the same QB as in the early rounds.

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I did, I asked to the tune of around 600 games over 7 years and guess what, the majority of teams still won their games without their QBs points.

 

Top-3 ADP QBs from 2006-2012

Wins...../.....% of time win total was achieved

0-1...../.....1.33%

2-3...../.....9.33%

4-5...../.....10.67%

6-7...../.....20.00%

8-9...../.....33.33%

10-11...../.....24.00%

12-13...../.....1.33%

 

An ADP top-3 QB is supposed to give you an advantage. When almost half of them (41.33%) don't win more than 7 games I'd say that's not much of an advantage.

 

So if a team wins without their 24 ppg QB, they would still win without their 19 ppg RB1, no?

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So if a team wins without their 24 ppg QB, they would still win without their 19 ppg RB1, no?

If you look at the research in the article it points to why the QB position is the one that's least valuable. If it pointed to RB then that's what I'd be preaching.

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Ask Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, Dree Brees, Peyton Manning owners about 6pt TDs. When you have it going on...it can be a huge difference maker. Your talking about one player putting up 25-40% of what most most teams put up -- every single week.

 

 

If your league is set up such that a single player regularly puts up 30+% of your teams points for the week, I would postulate that you have a flaw in your scoring system and/or your lineup options.

 

When QBs score that many points compared to the combined score of every other player you are starting, you aren't playing fantasy football anymore, you are playing fantasy quarterback and hoping yours outscores your opponents for that week.

 

 

Those are phantom seasons I just mentioned, whereas; Peyton's 55TD season being the latest. In those examples he took many people to the glory land in 6pt leagues.

 

I would be interested in your stat gathering if its in displayable form? Curious to see the point distribution and drop-off.

 

It wasn't the 6 point TDs that made the difference, it was the difference in the volume of TDs that Peyton threw compared to his peers. In most years, as I noted earlier, the distribution is much closer, but every so often there is a QB that goes off and throws 10+ more TDs than any other QB. In that case it does not matter if TDs are worth 4 or 6 points, that guy is generating value.

 

Now, if you could with 100% certainty tell me that Luck or Rodgers is going to throw 10+ more TDs this year than any other QB, then I would 100% be on board with taking that QB early, as there will be a significant point advantage because of that. The problem is no one can do that and history tends to show that those types of seasons are very few and far between. Absent that foresight, I'll take my QB that will average 1-2 PPG less over the course of the season 6 rounds later while loading up on more higher upside RBs and WRs that will likely generate way more than that over their counterparts available 6 rounds later

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Now, if you could with 100% certainty tell me that Luck or Rodgers is going to throw 10+ more TDs this year than any other QB, then I would 100% be on board with taking that QB early, as there will be a significant point advantage because of that. The problem is no one can do that and history tends to show that those types of seasons are very few and far between. Absent that foresight, I'll take my QB that will average 1-2 PPG less over the course of the season 6 rounds later while loading up on more higher upside RBs and WRs that will likely generate way more than that over their counterparts available 6 rounds later

This. You just hit the nail on the head. There's always believers that one or two QB's are going to throw 3 TD's a week. Luck and Rogers this year are prime candidates to do that - but do you want to pass up on a workhorse RB for one that will split carries in a 2 or 3 RB system? Do you want to pass on that sure fire #1 WR for a more inconsistent one? I REALLY like Luck this year - and would love to roster him on every one of my teams - but to get him where he's going, you're crippling your team at the other key positions.
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This. You just hit the nail on the head. There's always believers that one or two QB's are going to throw 3 TD's a week. Luck and Rogers this year are prime candidates to do that - but do you want to pass up on a workhorse RB for one that will split carries in a 2 or 3 RB system? Do you want to pass on that sure fire #1 WR for a more inconsistent one? I REALLY like Luck this year - and would love to roster him on every one of my teams - but to get him where he's going, you're crippling your team at the other key positions.

I'm totally on board with waiting for a QB but...we just have to acknowledge the very established reality that the miss rate on that "workhorse RB" or "sure fire #1 WR" with an ADP in the top 10 at the position is about 50%.

 

There are many ways to get screwed in FFL. Acknowledge the zero QB theorem, pick your poison, and then go for it.

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I'm totally on board with waiting for a QB but...we just have to acknowledge the very established reality that the miss rate on that "workhorse RB" or "sure fire #1 WR" with an ADP in the top 10 at the position is about 50%.

 

There are many ways to get screwed in FFL. Acknowledge the zero QB theorem, pick your poison, and then go for it.

mR(Miss rates) was a big part of the Zero QB Theorem in determining overall value of each position.

 

I think that people (some, maybe even many) look at QBs and see that they don't miss and see that as a reason to give them added value. Then they look at RBs and see their miss rate and want to devalue them. The fact that RB is a more scarce position and also has a large miss rate is what makes them more valuable. The more you RBs you draft the more you lessen the risk. And I'm pretty sure, without looking back on my data, the further you get from RB1 the more risk that each back has.

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I'm totally on board with waiting for a QB but...we just have to acknowledge the very established reality that the miss rate on that "workhorse RB" or "sure fire #1 WR" with an ADP in the top 10 at the position is about 50%.

 

There are many ways to get screwed in FFL. Acknowledge the zero QB theorem, pick your poison, and then go for it.

 

 

Keggerz alluded to it, but first we need to define what constitutes a miss - does it mean taking an RB in the first round and he isn't top 5? Top 10? what about top 20 and an every week starter?

 

Let's say we assume that we want an RB taken in the first round to be top 10 and 50% of them hit that goal. Let's then say that the rate of 2nd round RBs that make the top 10 is somewhere around 25%, with another 15% in the third round. So 9 out of the 10 top 10 Rbs are gone in the first 3 rounds. That leaves one top 10 RB coming in round 4 or later.

 

I know I'd rather the higher chance at a top 10 RB, so I'd prefer to take my shots at them earlier, as I can say with a pretty high level of confidence that I can get a QB in round 6 or later that will score reasonably close to the majority, if not all, of the QB taken in round 1-4. As noted earlier, the year Manning went for 55 TDs, he was not the top rated QB and was being drafted in round 3/4 or even later. Same with Brady - he was not the #1 rated QB the year he went off. So I still have some chance of taking a QB that could possibly go off and distance himself from the other QBs.

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I joined a new PPR league this year that also includes 6 pts for passing TD, but in addition, there are bonus points for 40+ and 50+ TD passes, 300 and 400+ ypg and a really weird one, 1 pt for every 5 completions. RBs/TEs/WRs also have bonus points for 100+, 200+ games, and 40+ and 50+ TD and 1 pt per 10 yards. When I use myHuddle projections, QBs have insane points compared to the other positions, but the difference between the top QB (Luck) and the 4th QB (Brees) is over 100 pts. Since I'm new to the league, I don't know the draft tendencies of the other members, but it seems like I should be trying to grab Luck or Rodgers early not only due to the point discrepancy with the other QBs, but the points per completion seems to really make the QB position much more valuable than any other. Any thoughts?

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It doesn't unless you are playing with 16 teams or more.

 

The drop-off isn't significant enough between the pool of QBs to justify passing on harder to find positions earlier in the draft where the drop-off and overall lack of options is greater

 

Search for the Zero QB Theorom

 

http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

That gave me flashbacks from my Statistics class in College. Thanks for the link.

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If you look at the research in the article it points to why the QB position is the one that's least valuable. If it pointed to RB then that's what I'd be preaching.

Right,

 

If you overvalue your QB draft you are in turn devaluing your RB and WR positions, which are the biggest difference makers in most cases.

 

Depending on the league rules, you have to look at the gap in positional values to see the significant drops and stay ahead of the curve.

 

That is, of course, not taking into consideration injuries, team/coach changes, etc. Where a good prediction can pull you ahead.

 

May the fantasy gods shine upon you

 

:nerd:

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I joined a new PPR league this year that also includes 6 pts for passing TD, but in addition, there are bonus points for 40+ and 50+ TD passes, 300 and 400+ ypg and a really weird one, 1 pt for every 5 completions. RBs/TEs/WRs also have bonus points for 100+, 200+ games, and 40+ and 50+ TD and 1 pt per 10 yards. When I use myHuddle projections, QBs have insane points compared to the other positions, but the difference between the top QB (Luck) and the 4th QB (Brees) is over 100 pts. Since I'm new to the league, I don't know the draft tendencies of the other members, but it seems like I should be trying to grab Luck or Rodgers early not only due to the point discrepancy with the other QBs, but the points per completion seems to really make the QB position much more valuable than any other. Any thoughts?

 

This may be an example of one of the caveats I always put in about a system where a particular position vastly outscores the other positions.

 

You didn't mention what the point totals are by position or what the spread is for the other positions, but points per completion (or leagues where QBs get 1 point per 10 yards passing) can push QB scoring so high that they are generally 40+% of your weekly score, usually even more. In these cases, you are not really playing fantasy football anymore, you are playing fantasy quarterback. Grab the best one you can and hope they don't get hurt.

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I think that people (some, maybe even many) look at QBs and see that they don't miss and see that as a reason to give them added value. Then they look at RBs and see their miss rate and want to devalue them. The fact that RB is a more scarce position and also has a large miss rate is what makes them more valuable. The more you RBs you draft the more you lessen the risk. And I'm pretty sure, without looking back on my data, the further you get from RB1 the more risk that each back has.

 

^^This. Over and over.

 

I'm going to whisper this to myself like a crazy person as a pump up prayer before every one of my drafts. I might get it tattooed on my forearm.

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I believe you may have just discovered the Zero Running Back Theorem.

 

Meh - there've been plenty of folks that have had success drafting RB (even RB1/2) late.

 

Bottom line, there's a ton of ways to reach the finish line in first. First and foremost, regardless of whatever "theorem" you may subscribe to, you need a whole lot of luck. Mitigating risk is probably the best advice out there.

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