QB First Overall?

[joed1041]

I'm in a 14 man league and I have the first overall pick and I am stuck between AP and....Aaron Rodgers. I can't see why drafting someone like Rodgers or Luck with a top 5 would be a bad thing, but all the information I research says RB first overall in the top 5. Last year, A-Rod had 60 more points than the highest RB, DeMarco Murray (ESPN league). As far as consistency goes, I think Rodgers first overall is a no brainer, but with my draft less than 24 hours away, I am starting to have second thoughts. Any advice?

[NEPats]

What is your scoring?

 

If 6 points all TDs then OK to pick Luck maybe - prob not Rodgers - but I wouldn't.

 

If 4 points passing TD then pick RB

[joed1041]

It's only 4 for a TD. Is it you just don't trust that either QB would put up the same numbers as last year? Just based off end of the year points, I feel like that QBs have dominated.

[robotpimp]

RB, in a 14 teamer if everyone takes RB's and WR's you might end up with the 22+ RB as your RB1, and that's bad.. 14 teams only need to play one QB, the 14th best QB outside Luck and Rodgers is not far behind, but the RB's drop quick and continue to drop. Safer to stick with getting that stud RB1. I've seen drafts where the first QB or first two go early (1st, 2nd round) then no one picks up a QB until 4th round meaning the 3rd best is there in the 4th.. and sometimes that still doesn't start a QB trend people continue to take WR/RB's until they fill those slots. Wait on your QB and thank me later. Comparing QB to RB is the wrong way to do it.

Its missing out on the elite points of a few RB's, WR's.. you only play one QB having a lesser RB then an even lesser RB2 starting each week with also lesser WR's means every position is a round off essentially you're getting less points x starting positions of those RB/WR spots (of course if you're hitting on sleepers and guys playing way above their ADP's and projections then it may work). Having R.Wilson and Roeth last year at or near their ADPs would make taking Rodgers or Luck in the first couple rounds foolish.. because they came in top 5 overall and probably were drafted 6-7th rounds, meaning you get top production from Roeth and Wilson and took best available RB/WR coming out of the gate in the first rounds. Having AP at one sets up having AJ Green in the second and the next pick can be whatever you want.. you don't want to wait too long but you don't want to be so far ahead of the trend that it screws you.

[Richard1233]

In a 14 team league I would take AP first. I'm a huge fan of 0 rb theory but in a 14 man league u will end up having to reach for a bunch of mid level talent at rb wasting many picks most likely later in the draft if u don't take a rb first. WR and QB is deep this year. U could still get a good QB later in the draft that won't be too far off of luck and rodgers, u are less likely to find a rb that close to AP production later in the draft. If u pass him up or any other top rb u will pay the price later when u have rbs that don't even play much on Sundays and u will be hoping for injuries all year. I wouldn't put myself in that situation in such a big league.

[Big Country]

It does not matter that the QBs scored more than the RBs last year... or any year.

 

What you need to look at is by how much did the top QBs outscore the other QBs and compare that to how much the top RBs outscored the other RBs. Factor in that you likely have to start 2 RBs, so adjust baseline accordingly, then look at ADP data and you will see that most likely (barring some unusual scoring or lineup rules) you are better off grabbing your top rated RB first and getting a QB in the 5th or later, as the projected drop off in points is much less that way.

 

But, you need to look at your projections and do the calculations for your particular league, we can only advise based on what the numbers say for most standard league setups. I would venture a guess that Luck (I also have Luck ahead of Rodgers in my rankings) will rate out as a mid/late 1st rounder while the top RBs and a couple WRs will rate out as the early 1st rounders. Then all you need is for the players to actually perform to expectation.

[robotpimp]

It does not matter that the QBs scored more than the RBs last year... or any year.

 

What you need to look at is by how much did the top QBs outscore the other QBs and compare that to how much the top RBs outscored the other RBs. Factor in that you likely have to start 2 RBs, so adjust baseline accordingly, then look at ADP data and you will see that most likely (barring some unusual scoring or lineup rules) you are better off grabbing your top rated RB first and getting a QB in the 5th or later, as the projected drop off in points is much less that way.

 

But, you need to look at your projections and do the calculations for your particular league, we can only advise based on what the numbers say for most standard league setups. I would venture a guess that Luck (I also have Luck ahead of Rodgers in my rankings) will rate out as a mid/late 1st rounder while the top RBs and a couple WRs will rate out as the early 1st rounders. Then all you need is for the players to actually perform to expectation.

Exactly, I drafted Jimmy Graham early last year (early 2nd round like 2.14 10-teamer) he performed horribly compared to expectation even though I had other great picks my TE was worthless because my team relied on his projected numbers it severely handicapped my team, if I would've taken DT or Dez I would've potentially won the league as they performed to their potential or slightly above around the same ADP as Jimmy Graham did.. QB early is risky it can work but a lot needs to go 'right' for the rest of the draft.

Edited August 27, 2015 by robotpimp