Chloroform Rx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 How much do you factor this into who you draft? Lately, like the last year or two, I have been looking at this more and more. I won my big league last year in part because I made some trades (which did not favor me on the surface) for players who had easy playoff schedules. I don't hear about SOS a great deal on this board. And maybe my success last year was coincidental, but I think there is some merit to this strategy. How much does it mean to you when drafting? The Bucs appear to have the easiest schedule this year. When I pick this Saturday I am taking Mike Evans over Alshon Jeffery, Emmanuel Sanders, and Randall Cobb for this very reason. Because their potential is marginal in my eyes, but some will face tougher schedules. I kept C.J. Anderson over Forte -- again, SOS had a lot to do with this (his sched in the playoffs becomes very easy). Then you have guys whom you really don't care about their schedules, right... or do you? Le'Veon Bell, Jeremy Hill, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, all rank towards the bottom. Certainly this isn't going to knock them down very much. But shouldn't it change the order? It seems more often than not Bell is the consensus #1, but it is Lacy who has the better schedule in the playoffs over all of them. This IMO should make him the clear cut #1, especially if they are all considered interchangeable. Just wondering what your guys thoughts are? I don't think SOS is the holy grail of drafting, but I strongly believe it is often overlooked. Maybe I am looking too far into it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Good post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finn5033 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'll admit I haven't considered in the past when drafting, but have thought about it. I do think it's something to consider if you are picking between 2 guys that you value equally. The one thing you have to consider though is even though a teams SOS seems favorable at the beginning of the season it may change completely as the season goes on. Teams you thought would be good are not, and teams you thought were doormats are not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rileyrott Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The one thing you have to consider though is even though a teams SOS seems favorable at the beginning of the season it may change completely as the season goes on. Teams you thought would be good are not, and teams you thought were doormats are not. ^^This^^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 For some reason, I give it more thought when drafting a QB than any other position. But that being said, I don't go into the draft with a list of SOS, I just make a note on which QBs to target because of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heehawks Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 ^^This^^ This again...I take SOS into "consideration", but never take TOO much stock into it because of the above reason. For example, I would take Cobb over Evans every time because of many other factors even tho SOS may look like its better for Evans. I tend to use SOS a bit more for middle tier players where it may make a bit more difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'll admit I haven't considered in the past when drafting, but have thought about it. I do think it's something to consider if you are picking between 2 guys that you value equally. The one thing you have to consider though is even though a teams SOS seems favorable at the beginning of the season it may change completely as the season goes on. Teams you thought would be good are not, and teams you thought were doormats are not. ^^This^^ i concur...SoS is important, but IMO it becomes more important after the draft, once there has been benchmark set (of, I would go as far as to say 4-6 games) for the current season...i don't completely discount SoS during the draft, but definitely use it much more for trade discussions and WW pick-ups, though... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faceplant Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 To me, the SoS swing is more important than the SoS. It's actually my favorite Huddle article. It helps me to recognize guys that had a dip last year that I can reasonably expect more from this year. And vice versa. Especially at the RB position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I looknat the SoS in sections...small sample sizes.... Right now I don't even look at it and if I did, I would only look at the first 3 weeks.... And even when I look during the season I use the range from the past 4 or 5 weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Was a great article on SoS Swings from last year to this year written by DMD - you can find it on the main page - not sure if it's paid content or not.. It's an awesome article / tool that I have been referencing a LOT when considering my picks so far this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chloroform Rx Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 So your guys' opinion is not that SOS doesn't matter, but that we cannot ascertain the actual SOS before the season starts? So in this hypothetical situation: Tony Romo plays against the Bills in week 16 (he actually does), when the FFB championship game will be played. I am not taking him at or near his ADP (maybe ever) knowing I may have to start him that week due to limited options. I am going to draft someone better suited with their schedule, QB or otherwise, and look at getting, say, Carson Palmer later on because he should cruise through the playoffs. Is this an ill-advised strategy since we may not know how good the Bills defense really is? or do we have a good idea? The reason I ask this is because last year a situation occurred that really had me thinking. In the second round of the playoffs I was facing off against team [x]. Team [x] had Aaron Rodgers at the helm and the Packers were facing the Buffalo Bills. Rewind to 1 week prior; The Broncos played the Bills and Peyton Manning got decimated; 14-20 173 yards 0TD 2INT. So here I am playing against team [x] and I'm thinking, I lovvveee that Rodgers is playing the Bills right now. The end result was Rodgers went an abysmal 17-42 185 yards 0TD 2INT, and I ended up winning the game (for more reasons than that, but still). Now, am I suggesting that he should have sat Aaron Rodgers? Not a chance. But, what if he removed the risk on draft day, went with another stud in that round and went with another QB later in the draft who would have a cake playoff schedule? Maybe this is all nonsensical jargon. Certainly I am not saying this is how it is, I am just throwing ideas around and gauging the value of looking at SOS more, and certainly as it applies to weeks 14-16. I agree that it is more important in the regular season, but I feel like it is still a very underrated tool when drafting as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The big problem with SoS analysis is that it is based on somebody's perceived strength, offensively and defensively, of all 32 teams. With the number of factors involved there really is no way to know the accuracy of a projected SoS. In addition there are some players that play well regardless of their opponent. Then there are cases where the strength of the opposing team will be focused on another player. So while it makes an interesting read, I don't use it too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finn5033 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 So your guys' opinion is not that SOS doesn't matter, but that we cannot ascertain the actual SOS before the season starts? So in this hypothetical situation: Tony Romo plays against the Bills in week 16 (he actually does), when the FFB championship game will be played. I am not taking him at or near his ADP (maybe ever) knowing I may have to start him that week due to limited options. I am going to draft someone better suited with their schedule, QB or otherwise, and look at getting, say, Carson Palmer later on because he should cruise through the playoffs. Is this an ill-advised strategy since we may not know how good the Bills defense really is? or do we have a good idea? The reason I ask this is because last year a situation occurred that really had me thinking. In the second round of the playoffs I was facing off against team [x]. Team [x] had Aaron Rodgers at the helm and the Packers were facing the Buffalo Bills. Rewind to 1 week prior; The Broncos played the Bills and Peyton Manning got decimated; 14-20 173 yards 0TD 2INT. So here I am playing against team [x] and I'm thinking, I lovvveee that Rodgers is playing the Bills right now. The end result was Rodgers went an abysmal 17-42 185 yards 0TD 2INT, and I ended up winning the game (for more reasons than that, but still). Now, am I suggesting that he should have sat Aaron Rodgers? Not a chance. But, what if he removed the risk on draft day, went with another stud in that round and went with another QB later in the draft who would have a cake playoff schedule? Maybe this is all nonsensical jargon. Certainly I am not saying this is how it is, I am just throwing ideas around and gauging the value of looking at SOS more, and certainly as it applies to weeks 14-16. I agree that it is more important in the regular season, but I feel like it is still a very underrated tool when drafting as well. I think you are overthinking it. I'm not going to pass on a player because I don't like his matchup in week 16. Considering your example, yes as of now we think the Bills are going to have a very good defense. But by week 16 they may have injuries, suspensions, and other things we can't foresee that may really change things. Bottom line we've all seen how much things can change over the course of a season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think you are overthinking it. I'm not going to pass on a player because I don't like his matchup in week 16. Considering your example, yes as of now we think the Bills are going to have a very good defense. But by week 16 they may have injuries, suspensions, and other things we can't foresee that may really change things. Bottom line we've all seen how much things can change over the course of a season. Things change drastically between now and week 4...let alone week 16... Also is the SoS based on last years results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think you are overthinking it. I'm not going to pass on a player because I don't like his matchup in week 16. Considering your example, yes as of now we think the Bills are going to have a very good defense. But by week 16 they may have injuries, suspensions, and other things we can't foresee that may really change things. Bottom line we've all seen how much things can change over the course of a season.yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Things change drastically between now and week 4...let alone week 16... Also is the SoS based on last years results? yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 yep So they don't project based off team additions/subtractions... Hmm I still like it during the season as I use it as a tool to try and find a buy low candidate.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 So they don't project based off team additions/subtractions...Im not sure to be honest. I believe its mainly based on last yrs stats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard1233 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Strength of schedule is usually based on last year. In the nfl things change so fast I pay no attention to it at all. I did one year and it was a disaster. I go based on talent and upside, i don't even look at anyone's schedule or the schedule strength stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuckyone Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Things change drastically between now and week 4...let alone week 16... Also is the SoS based on last years results? Bingo You state you made trades going into the playoffs that took SOS into account, but SOS at that point should have included current stats so it was more relevant. SOS going into a draft based on last years numbers don't mean as much....so going into a draft I don't let it influence me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Bingo You state you made trades going into the playoffs that took SOS into account, but SOS at that point should have included current stats so it was more relevant. SOS going into a draft based on last years numbers don't mean as much....so going into a draft I don't let it influence me. Exactly....if you watch football then you know last yeas stats mean next to nothing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blips Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I have the second pick in a draft coming up and was trying to decide who to take between AP, Charles and L Bell. I started looking at strength of schedule to help sway me. But then I remember a key thing I learned in Fantasy. Always play your studs! So it will not be a factor in my first round pick but I like the advise that it might matter in the middle rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.