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Redraft season winding down - 2016 dynasty offseason discussion


bud29
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With most redraft championships coming to a close this week, it's time to start looking at our 2016 dynasty rookie drafts! Some names to watch throughout the draft process:

 

QB

Paxton Lynch, Memphis - Lots of comparisons to Bortles. Classic pocket passer build, coming from a mid-major school running a spread offense. Will likely have a rough first year as Bortles did, but very high ceiling. Current NFL draft projection - top 10-15

 

Jared Goff, Cal - Has had some INT problems, but still looks like a really good prospect. Current NFL draft projection - top 10-15

 

Connor Cook, Michigan State - Another prototype pocket passer (and actually comes from a pro-style system), but there are some accuracy concerns. Current NFL draft projection - 1st round

 

RB

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State - As far as RBs go in 2016, it's Elliott and everybody else. Things can change, but he appears to be the consensus 1.01 dynasty pick this year. Current NFL draft projection - 1st round

 

WR

Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss - Drawn some comparisons to Alshon Jeffery. 6'3", athletic, but not a burner. Current NFL draft projection - 1st round

 

Corey Coleman, Baylor - Incredible athlete, but very limited route tree. Crazy stats in the Baylor spread offense, caught 20 TDs this season. Current NFL draft projection - 1st-2nd round

 

Michael Thomas, Ohio State - Kind of the anti-Coleman, IMO. Won't put up eye-popping numbers at the combine, hasn't put up big stats in college; but he's big, physical, and a great route-runner. Current NFL draft projection - 1st-2nd round.

 

Josh Doctson, TCU - Long, lanky build with great jumping ability. Better route runner than most WRs from spread offenses. Great story, former walk-on. Current NFL draft projection - 1st-2nd round

 

Some big IDP names to watch:

ILB - Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), Myles Jack (UCLA), Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Kentrell Brothers (Mizzou). ---- While the RB/WR class looks unspectacular compared to 2014/15, this could be the best ILB class since 2012. Smith and Jack appear to be top-10 picks and future pro bowlers. Ragland and Brothers project to be FF-friendly 3-4 "thumper" ILBs.

 

DL - Joey Bosa (Ohio State), Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss), A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), DeForest Buckner (Oregon), Andrew Billings (Baylor), Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State). ------ This is another loaded area of the draft, although not necessarily FF-wise. Tons of high-quality DTs. Bosa is probably the best IDP DL prospect, granted he lands in a 4-3 scheme (where he fits best, IMO). Ending up as a 3-4 OLB would be a total buzzkill. Nkemdiche is a very Clowney-like prospect. Physical freak, but some character/effort concerns and not much college production.

 

DB - Vernon Hargreaves III (Florida), Jalen Ramsey (Florida State), Jeremy Cash (Duke), Vonn Bell (Ohio State), Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), Su'a Cravens (USC). ------ Another really solid area of the draft. If your team needs defense, this seems like a good draft. Hargreaves is a bit undersize but looks like a top-10 pick. Cash is a tackle-heavy S that will be a coveted FF commodity. Cravens is listed as a LB by many sites, as he's a SS/WLB hybrid like Shaq Thompson, Deone Buccanon, etc.

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I've seen a lot of projections of Jaylon Smith as an OLB. Will be interesting to see where he lands.

He and Jack are both officially listed as OLBs since they're 4-3 WLBs, but the important thing is that they won't be edge rushers. That's why I listed them as ILBs, even though neither of them will probably end up truly being 3-4 ILBs - both project better to the 4-3 scheme, while Ragland and Brothers fit better in a 3-4 IMO.

Edited by bud29
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I decided to look into some of the guys that people aren't talking about as much currently, although with players like this they tend to rise and fall very quickly based on combine numbers. Please note "Pro Comparison" is typically more of a best case than an actual prediction

Late 1st/Early 2nd

Mike Williams WR Clemson- In Clemson's first game of the season Williams fractured his neck and was declared out for the season. He is not a definite to declare, but if he does I think he's a guy that will wow some people at the combine with his athleticism and size. Currently being talked about as a late 1st round guy, but I could see a Kevin White level rise into the top 5 after the combine. Pro Comparison: Julio Jones

Tajae Sharpe WR UMass- Another guy with outstanding size. Has been an outstanding producer in college for years, although not against top level competition. Has above average athleticism but most likely won't put up the "flashy" combine numbers people look for, probably more of a 4.5 guy in the 40. Very good route runner and tremendous hands, but needs to get stronger. Pro Comparison: A.J Green

James Conner RB Pitt- Tore his MCL in 2015 and was out for the year. I expect him to return to college, but if he doesn't he should be a mid 2nd round guy. Doesn't have elite speed, but is a true bruiser. I don't think he'll ever be a true everydown back, but with his 6'2 240 frame he should be able to become an elite goal line back. Temper expectations as he only has 9 receptions in his career, but should be a solid producer for years to come. Pro Comparison: LeGarrette Blount

Alex Collins RB Arkansas- Was allowed to shine as the feature back with teammate Jonathon Williams being injured, and he didn't disappoint. Despite tremendous numbers at a good SEC program he continues to be overlooked in my opinion. Runs with great power and is deceptively fast. He runs with the power and reckless abandonment that really makes me want to have Marshawn Lynch as his pro comparison, but I don't think he has the vision or balance that Beast Mode possesses. Pro Comparison: Jonathan Stewart

Pharoh Cooper WR South Carolina- A Junior that has already declared for the draft. Cooper does it all for the Gamecocks, lining up on the outside, in the slot, returning punts, and even throwing passes out of the wildcat. As a guy who watched every game he ever played, his combine numbers won't jump off the page(4.6 40 time most likely), but his "game speed" and quickness is tremendous. Has excellent strength despite a 5'11 frame, but has struggled with drops at times. Despite being the only weapon on South Carolina's offense and having among the worst QB situations in CFB he continued to put up big numbers. Pro Comparison: Randall Cobb

Deeper Sleepers(High upside Late 2nd and beyond)

Sterling Shepard WR Oklahoma- Is being dropped very low in draft because of his 5'10 frame, but is one of the truly elite WR's in CFB. While his size is concerning and his 40 time isn't as high as you'd like for a guy his size(it will be very fast, but not in the 4.3 range you look for when looking at prospects this size), he still does a tremendous job getting open. One of the best route runners in CFB and one of the quickest guys around. I plan on making him a priority in most of my drafts, especially PPR, as I think he will have tremendous value. Pro Comparison: Antonio Brown(this is probably the biggest stretch of all, as part of what makes AB so good is his relationship with Big Ben, but from the size, quickness, and route running aspect there are a lot of similarities)

Duke Williams WR Auburn- Was always considered to have off the field issues, which materialized this year when he was kicked off of the Auburn football team. Is the epitome of "boom or bust" as he could flame out in the NFL to the surprise of nobody, but the talent is certainly there. I think he's worth a very late round pick in deeper leagues, where the risk is minimized because of his draft position. Has tremendous hands and is a very strong player. Lacks top end speed and quickness, but will make tough contested catches. Pro Comparison: Alshon Jeffery

Keith Marshall RB Georgia- Have a hard time knowing what to make of him. He was constantly overshadowed by other RB's on the Georgia roster, such as Gurley and Chubb, and he has dealt with his fair share of injuries, but is a very talented back. Has good size and top notch speed, and has shown good hands out of the backfield. I don't know if he'll ever make a major impact in the NFL, but as a late round pick(maybe even free agent flier) I think he could potentially be a nice addition in deeper leagues. Pro Comparison: Lamar Miller

Kenyan Drake RB Alabama- Is in a similiar situation to Keith Marshall, as a guy who has always been overshadowed by other RB's on the roster and has had some injuries, but I like him a considerable amount more than Marshall. I plan on making it a point of picking Drake in every draft I'm able to, as I think he may end up being the steal of the draft. I love everything almost everything about him. Very good speed, extremely shifty in the open field, tremendous hands, enough power to be a between the tackles back, and excellent vision. I don't think he fit the typical Alabama mold of an RB, which severely limited his playing time, but every time I watched them play he always jumped out at me. Pro Comparison: Jamaal Charles(this was a very tough decision, as I don't see anyone that jumps out as a good comparison to me, but Charles is a close as I can get. Both are very good receivers, but I don't think Drake will ever rival Charles' speed.

I'm not a great evaluator, just a guy who loves College football and dynasties, but in almost all my drafts I currently plan on targeting Mike Williams, Sterling Shepard, and Kenyan Drake. These are of course guys I'm looking for after names such as Treadwell, Coleman, Doctson, Henry, Elliot, Boyd, etc. I may continue updating this list as I look more into dynasty, but since my current season isn't over just yet :pickle: I haven't fully delved into dynasty.

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I don't think Elliot is the consensus 1.1 right now and I don't think he will be even if he is drafted to a favorable situation. WRs have proven more valuable, consistent, and durable in most formats.

I think it will depend 100% on where he is drafted. If Dallas takes him, or Seattle lets Lynch go and takes him(although Rawls has looked very good) he's going to be tough to pass up on.

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Mike Williams WR Clemson- In Clemson's first game of the season Williams fractured his neck and was declared out for the season. He is not a definite to declare, but if he does I think he's a guy that will wow some people at the combine with his athleticism and size. Currently being talked about as a late 1st round guy, but I could see a Kevin White level rise into the top 5 after the combine. Pro Comparison: Julio Jones

Things can change, but for now Williams has said he's staying at Clemson for another season. Unfortunate for dynasty owners with high picks this year, as he could've really boosted this WR class (which is looking kind of iffy right now).

 

I don't think Elliot is the consensus 1.1 right now and I don't think he will be even if he is drafted to a favorable situation. WRs have proven more valuable, consistent, and durable in most formats.

If this was 2014 or 2015, I'd agree - but unfortunately, this WR class doesn't seem so stout. There's no surefire mega-stud WR prospect like Cooper last year, or Watkins the year before. Elliott isn't near the pedigree of past 1.01 dynasty picks (Gurley, Watkins), but he's probably the most 'flawless' prospect in this offensive class right now.

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  • 2 months later...

Going to bump this thread as well. Ole Miss pro day today and Treadwell ran a 4.65 - we can see why he didn't run at the combine. Really looks like that 2nd tier with Treadwell/Doctson/Coleman might be pretty fluid.

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4.65 . . . did he have on concrete shoes????

And that's at pro day, where times are usually fast. Had he run at the combine, he might have finished in the 4.7 range. That's as slow as Devin Funchess, who ran so slow people started projecting him as a TE.

Edited by bud29
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And that's at pro day, where times are usually fast. Had he run at the combine, he might have finished in the 4.7 range. That's as slow as Devin Funchess, who ran so slow people started projecting him as a TE.

 

I think he's one of those guys whose game speed is quicker than his 40 yard dash time indicates but even then 4.65 is pretty damn slow. He's barely faster than me and I'm a good bit older :fool:

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I think he's one of those guys whose game speed is quicker than his 40 yard dash time indicates but even then 4.65 is pretty damn slow. He's barely faster than me and I'm a good bit older :fool:

 

I assume you watched a good bit of SEC football this year given your avatar....

 

Any of you see him play? This whole 40-time thing is a little overblown, IMO.

 

Good read here.

Edited by darin3
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