Which ones to Keep?

[RowdyRoos]

In our Keeper league we do a rotating # of keepers - 2,3,4,5,4,3,2 each year. This year we get to keep 4 players straight up. I also won the league championship which means I can place the Franchise Tag on any player drafted in round 10 or later or an FA/Waiver pickups. That franchise player then becomes the draft pick for the round he was selected in the previous draft. FA and Waivers count as 15th round picks.

 

Here is my roster:

QB

Andrew Luck

Blake Bortles

RB

Todd Gurley

David Johnson

Jonathan Stewart

Jeremy Hill

Thomas Rawls

WR

Antonio Brown

Julio Jones

Jeremy Maclin

Allen Robinson

Julian Edelman

TE

Jordan Reed

Delanie Walker

 

 

I'm keeping Gurley, Antonio and Julio 100%. Here is my scenario of options.

 

I can keep Luck as a straight up keeper.

 

David Johnson, Thomas Rawls and Jordan Reed were all FA pickups and would be 15th round selections. I drafted Allen Robinson in the 15th round as well. Edelman was a FA pickup after his injury and therefore a 15th rounder also.

 

My thought....

 

Would I be better off releasing Luck back into the draft and using my 5 keeper spots on positional players? With my FA pickups and Robinson in the 15th round...I can keep any of the aforementioned guys as a 15th rounder.

 

Who would be the 2 guys you add to go with Gurley, Brown and Julio?

 

We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 TE, K, DST

 

The other QBs that will be kept (speculation on my part) are Brady, Brees, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Jameis or Big Ben....and then the wild card is one team has both Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. I know I'll have 1 team with a QB need as he is keeping Bell, Peterson, Hopkins and Gronk. If Jameis or Big Ben don't get kept then that would be potentially a 2nd team needing a QB. I'm thinking worst case I'd have these guys available with only 1 or 2 possible teams taking a QB ahead of my draft position of 8/9 - Luck, Rivers, Eli, Bortles, Carr, Ryan, Cousins, Dalton, Taylor, Stafford, Tannehill and POSSIBLY either Cam or Rodgers.

 

QBs in this league occupied the top 18 spots and 22 out of the top 24. I had Antonio at #19 and Julio at #22. I'm just thinking that the availability of a QB will be abundant and having a top 10 RB or WR or a top 3 TE may be too much to pass up.

 

Thoughts?

[PoorAvatar]

Wow...tough calls. But if I had to make a decision today, I would lock in David Johnson as my #4 keeper. He is a freak talent on an excellent team that now knows what they have and how to use him. No brainer there for me in a very shallow position.

 

At this point you would have 2 WRs and 2 RBs locked up and would then only need QB/TE/Flex.

 

For the 5th keeper, given that you would have decent enough QB options without keeping one, I would personally lean towards difference makers in A.Robinson or Reed over Luck. But then again, I expect Luck to bounce back next year and he would be a fine option too.

 

Its a tough call and you probably can't go too wrong with any of your choices, but I think I'd go with A.Rob over Reed and Luck and gamble on getting a couple upside QBs and a mid- round TE.

 

This could change if David Johnson doesn't continue to impress me throughout the playoffs, but for now my list would be: Gurley, Antonio, Julio, D.Johnson, A.Robinson

[Air It Out]

Gurley, Brown, Julio all locks.

 

I'd also keep two of David Johnson, ARob, Reed, or Bortles (I'm not a huge Luck fan, but you can't really go wrong with him).

 

If QBs are that important in your league, then you probably want to keep one of the two you have. I think Bortles has higher upside, and his team is really coming together. If you do that, then I'd also keep David Johnson as your Franchise FA. You already have two stud wideouts, and that will give you two stud RBs.

 

If you are inclined to risk getting a QB through the draft, I'd actually consider keeping Reed and David Johnson. High end TE are hard to come by, and he and Cousins were really, really clicking at the end. That would leave you with two stud WR, two stud RBs, and a stud TE, and you would need a QB and Flex (giving you options on who to pick up in the first two rounds).

 

ARob may be more valuable than either Bortles or Reed, but you also need to probably fill out your starting rotation before going for depth.

[DiehardSteeler]

You are on the right track. I'd keep David Johnson and Allen Robinson, both are young studs off of break out seasons. You will have decent QB options to draft from, you don't have to have the best QB to win a league, and these keepers give you a great core to build from.

 

Reed is decent, but should not be drafted in the first 5 rounds. Robinson has less risk than Edelman who has an injury history and may be dealing with a,declining Brady.

Edited January 8, 2016 by DiehardSteeler

[jkraft896]

I agree with most above. QB should never be a priority over a high-end RB/WR. There are just too many options that make them a dime a dozen and it seems that there seem to be more startable fantasy QBs every year. Let Luck go and maybe you can snag him in the draft.

 

I think David Johnson has to be kept. He has all the tools to be really successful in this league as a 3-down running back and plays for one of the best offenses in the league. I would go with Allen Robinson as your last keeper. Sure, Reed had a really solid end of the yea, but he is a huge injury risk and I think he has hit his ceiling. Allen Robinson is just starting to touch his potential. I think he has the ability to exceed how he has preformed already whereas you know what you are getting with Reed. Again, if you can get him in the draft go ahead, but Robinson should be the priority here.

[colkurtz]

When do you have to lock them in? I would go Gurley, Johnson, Julio, Brown, and then either Rawls (assuming Lynch leaves) or Robinson. Robinson is probably the safer pick (especially if PPR) but stud RBs are harder to come by than are WRs. With 3 top RBs on board you could focus the rest of your draft elsewhere.

 

I wouldn't bank on Luck. He might come out blazing again but he might not. QBs are easy to pick up and outside of the top 5 or so there's a lot of parity.