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Who do you draft #1 next year?


michaelredd9
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I think this is a tough question. A lot of people base it off of who had the best season. The truth of that matter is Brown should've been the 1st pick this year. My question is has Brown hit his ceiling? Most good WRs and RBs hit their prime in those mid 20s. Megatron, for example, had his best seasons when he was 26 and 27 (28 was pretty good also) and has been on a slow decline since. I like to think about people like OBJ and Hopkins who are entering their prime years.

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I like to think about people like OBJ and Hopkins who are entering their prime years.

 

true, but you also gotta consider their supporting staff. Hopkins' stats might not get better unless they fix that QB situation. Odell might not be as much of a workhorse if Cruz is back/healthy or if they pick up / draft a good WR. Then there's also guys like Dez and Demaryius who could easily turn it around next year. Meanwhile there's no signs Julio will slow down. And damn why do we always forget about A-Rob haha - #4 fantasy WR this year, and he's only 22, with a good QB who's only getting better and a bad defense causing them to playing from behind a lot.

 

I'm definitely targeting Robinson next year. Maybe not first round, but if I manage to get him in the 2nd... :fool:

 

My question is has Brown hit his ceiling? Most good WRs and RBs hit their prime in those mid 20s. Megatron, for example, had his best seasons when he was 26 and 27 (28 was pretty good also) and has been on a slow decline since.

 

idk man, I mean, maybe Brown has hit his ceiling in that we won't see another 1,800+ yard season from him, but I think he'll continue to be an elite WR, probably the #1 for at the very least one more year. Looking at a lot of WRs stats, they usually hit their peak and then have 1-2 more seasons near that peak. Brown has been steadily going up - 1500 yards / 8 TDs in 2013, 1700/13 in 2014, and 1830/10 this year. I think he's got, at the very least, 2 more 1500+ yard seasons in the tank.

 

also, and I may be slightly wrong on this, but IIRC Brown wasn't really a full season starting WR until just 2013. He was a 6th round surprise. This was really only his 3rd "full" season. Calvin on the other hand was a hyped #2 pick and was pretty much a full time starter from his rookie season. So if Calvin started to "fall off" after his 7th season, I'd say Brown has a few monster seasons left.

 

 

Personally for me, it's gonna be Brown in PPR leagues though I can see why some would take Julio, Odell, or Hopkins. The more interesting question IMO is standard leagues, where Gurley, Bell, Freeman are in the conversation, and (not for the #1 pick, but first round) AP, Martin, Miller, and maybe even David Johnson, Rawls, and McCoy are first rounders.

 

I would still take a WR in standard leagues. With the RB injuries ever increasing and more RBBCs, I'd no doubt pick Brown with the #1. My #1 RB would probably be Gurley if they improve the passing game over the offseason, and if they don't, it'd be Bell. I'd still take Brown, Julio, Odell, and maybe Hopkins (depending on Texans' offseason moves) over any RB in standard. I'd even be tempted to take Robinson too, but one year is too small of a sample size.

Edited by pun
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true, but you also gotta consider their supporting staff. Hopkins' stats might not get better unless they fix that QB situation. Odell might not be as much of a workhorse if Cruz is back/healthy or if they pick up / draft a good WR. Then there's also guys like Dez and Demaryius who could easily turn it around next year. Meanwhile there's no signs Julio will slow down. And damn why do we always forget about A-Rob haha - #4 fantasy WR this year, and he's only 22, with a good QB who's only getting better and a bad defense causing them to playing from behind a lot.

 

I'm definitely targeting Robinson next year. Maybe not first round, but if I manage to get him in the 2nd... :fool:

 

 

idk man, I mean, maybe Brown has hit his ceiling in that we won't see another 1,800+ yard season from him, but I think he'll continue to be an elite WR, probably the #1 for at the very least one more year. Looking at a lot of WRs stats, they usually hit their peak and then have 1-2 more seasons near that peak. Brown has been steadily going up - 1500 yards / 8 TDs in 2013, 1700/13 in 2014, and 1830/10 this year. I think he's got, at the very least, 2 more 1500+ yard seasons in the tank.

 

also, and I may be slightly wrong on this, but IIRC Brown wasn't really a full season starting WR until just 2013. He was a 6th round surprise. This was really only his 3rd "full" season. Calvin on the other hand was a hyped #2 pick and was pretty much a full time starter from his rookie season. So if Calvin started to "fall off" after his 7th season, I'd say Brown has a few monster seasons left.

 

 

Personally for me, it's gonna be Brown in PPR leagues though I can see why some would take Julio, Odell, or Hopkins. The more interesting question IMO is standard leagues, where Gurley, Bell, Freeman are in the conversation, and (not for the #1 pick, but first round) AP, Martin, Miller, and maybe even David Johnson, Rawls, and McCoy are first rounders.

 

I would still take a WR in standard leagues. With the RB injuries ever increasing and more RBBCs, I'd no doubt pick Brown with the #1. My #1 RB would probably be Gurley if they improve the passing game over the offseason, and if they don't, it'd be Bell. I'd still take Brown, Julio, Odell, and maybe Hopkins (depending on Texans' offseason moves) over any RB in standard. I'd even be tempted to take Robinson too, but one year is too small of a sample size.

Oh, I definitely agree with you. I'm just trying to stay ahead of the game, a little. Everyone, including myself, loves Brown. He has the skills, QB, and character (the latter doesn't matter in FF, but it helps in regards to suspensions). I don't pick first next year, I'm in the middle and hoping to land OBJ or Hopkins, and maybe Dez in the 2nd round.

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In all seriousness I will probably go double WR this year. Based on the # of folks in my league that go QB in the 1st I should be able to get Julio at 11 and then swing back through and get Hopkins (pending a QB change) at 14. Then start filling in at RB in the 3rd

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While fun to debate, I think it's WAY too early to speculate on this question...a LOT can happen between now and the beginning of September, which is why in my main local league, we don't even hold the draft until the last Sunday in August. There are many possible names to choose from for the #1 pick now, but perhaps just a few remaining right before the season starts (IMO)...

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