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David Johnson: stud or no?


michaelredd9
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Due to the lack of legitimate tier one running backs, people are drafting David Johnson early. He currently has the 7th highest overall adp in MFL10s. He does seem to have big play ability and a nose for the end zone. However, Arizona just signed Chris Johnson to a $3 million deal. How do you rank David Johnson?

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Due to the lack of legitimate tier one running backs, people are drafting David Johnson early. He currently has the 7th highest overall adp in MFL10s. He does seem to have big play ability and a nose for the end zone. However, Arizona just signed Chris Johnson to a $3 million deal. How do you rank David Johnson?

 

Per Rotoworld

 

 

Cardinals re-signed RB Chris Johnson to a one-year contract.

 

It's worth "up to" $3 million. CJ2K appears to have leveraged the Dolphins into a new deal in the desert. Johnson was a godsend for the Cardinals last season, featuring amongst the league's leading rushers for a time, but faded badly before breaking his leg. David Johnson exploded in Chris' absence, meaning he's returning as a clear backup. It's the right role for the 30-year-old Johnson at this stage of his career. Chris will come into immediate fantasy value if David ever misses time with injury.

 

Sounds like unlikely escalators to make the contract seem better than it is. I'd worry more about Ellington usage in the passing game (provided he stays healthy) than I would about CJ?K on the early down carries.

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It just makes me want to avoid RBs in the first round all together, just too much uncertainty.

+1. Based on the performance of 1st round RBs (and 2nd round for that matter) not named Peterson, I'll probably be going WR in the 1st this year.

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I don't see why Ellington is of particular concern on 3rd down. DJ was a great receiver last season - 4 TDs (tied for 2nd in league for RBs) and 457 yards, 8th in the league behind mostly 3rd down specialists Woodhead, Riddick, Sims, Duke, Vereen, and Gio. Devonta Freeman was the only feature back to have more receiving yards... and he started a full year.

 

If anything I think I'd rather have DJ play all passing downs as he has a knack for the endzone and is good in the clutch, and then have a bit of rotation with CJ2K on early downs if needed.

 

I thought it was encouraging that pretty much all of DJ's best games (except for the huge one against philly) were against good defenses - Minnesota, St. Louis, Green Bay, Carolina. But at the same time, the starting RB for the Cards had success all year. No one expected CJ2K to play so well. So it's likely that the line and coaching is at least partly responsible for their success. But that's not necessarily a bad thing from a fantasy perspective cause he'll still be on the same team.

 

It just makes me want to avoid RBs in the first round all together, just too much uncertainty.

 

True, but some of the top WRs have some pretty significant question marks themselves. After Brown, Beckham, Julio, and Hopkins, none of them seem like certainties. Even Julio and Hopkins seem a bit uncertain. If you look back through the yearly leaders, there are lots of guys who had good years/bad years (like Julio) and lots of guys who had one huge year and then were never heard from again (this could be Hopkins, not saying it's likely but it's a possibility).

 

But after those 4, it gets more uncertain. Dez? Allen Robinson, Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Demaryius...

 

Gotta worry about QB play with Dez, Marshall, and Demaryius. A-Rob may not repeat if the defense is better. Jordy and Alshon have had some injuries....

Edited by pun
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Neither Ellington or CJ is a threat to Johnson. If he fails it will be on him, not because of either of those guys.

 

Much to the consternation of fantasy footballers, coaches will play an aging running back over a talented second year running back. It happens more times than not. It's totally impossible to predict what Arians will do. Fortunately, David Johnson was good at pass protection last year. That is hugh.

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Who will have the bigger fantasy impact? David Johnson or Todd Gurley, in that inept Rams offense?

I'd say it's more likely that Johnson will be better next year just based on being in a better squad. But I think a lot can change between now and September that could factor into who has a better year.

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How did people feel about CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill around this point last year?

 

And David Wilson in 2013 and Montee Ball in 2014. A running back can look really good in limited time and then fail when given the full-time job. There is no way to know what will happen until it happens. But it doesn't stop people from anointing a player king before they have done much. With the addition of Chris Johnson, I have dropped David Johnson from the mid second round down to the 3rd round. I'll take a more known commodity like AJ Green, Dez Bryant or Jordy Nelson instead.

Edited by michaelredd9
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So you haven't played in a dynasty league?

 

Nope one league with 5 keepers, no limits. Do dynasty leagues have activity on their teams at this time of year, trading players?

 

It just seems people over analyze and want to form ideas on who is ranked where way too early.

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I held David Johnson most of last year and the lottery ticket paid off.

 

For that ticket to pay off, two RBs had to get injured in front of him practically at the same time. I don't think much of either CJ0K or Ellington but last I checked they're both coming back. I feel like I've heard this story before.

 

First round no way - based on what we know right now. If Arians says he's the bellcow with 20 touches a game going forward then my opinion changes. Until then, I'll be headed in another direction.

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Seriously though, that wasn't a rhetorical question. I wasn't here. What did people think of CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill last year?

 

I'm assuming they thought of them like DJ and Rawls and Langford? Although everyone seems significantly lower on Langford than the other two.

 

What was the narrative last year though?

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Seriously though, that wasn't a rhetorical question. I wasn't here. What did people think of CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill last year?

 

I'm assuming they thought of them like DJ and Rawls and Langford? Although everyone seems significantly lower on Langford than the other two.

 

What was the narrative last year though?

 

If you use the "search" function, you can pull up the threads from last year. Every year there are people who draft unproven running backs in the 1st and 2nd rounds. The fail rate is high. Then they complain all year about their unluckiness and say things like "fantasy football is 95% luck and 5% luck." It was even worse 10 or 15 years ago when most fantasy footballers would draft 2 running backs in the first 2 rounds no matter which running backs were left. It was a golden period for those of us who drafted receivers early.

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If you use the "search" function, you can pull up the threads from last year. Every year there are people who draft unproven running backs in the 1st and 2nd rounds. The fail rate is high. Then they complain all year about their unluckiness and say things like "fantasy football is 95% luck and 5% luck." It was even worse 10 or 15 years ago when most fantasy footballers would draft 2 running backs in the first 2 rounds no matter which running backs were left. It was a golden period for those of us who drafted receivers early.

 

Fortune favors the prepared mind.

 

--- Louis Pasteur

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