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Which rookie/soph WRs are you personally high on?


pun
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I've been doing some mock drafts and noticed that there seems to be a big drop off in WR value after the first 8 or so, and then there's a huge tier from like 9-25 that seem pretty close in value, so if I don't get one of those top WRs early, I tend to just grab 2-3 solid RBs (love getting someone like Forte for that flex spot). But then you're only able to get one solid WR, so I find myself loading up on WRs with high ceilings in later rounds, thinking that if I pick a few, one of them is bound to be fantasy relevant. And I find myself coming back to the same six names, mostly rookies or sophomores:

 

Kevin White

Laquon Treadwell

Sterling Shepard

Sammie Coates

DeSean Jackson

Steve Smith

 

White is really the only guy in Chicago other than Alshon who could be fantasy relevant, a big dependable chain-mover like Treadwell is perfect for MIN imo, Shepard will see so many targets in that offense especially if Cruz isn't back to form, and Steelers fans seem more excited about Coates than Wheaton or DHB, and I'm inclined to trust them. D Jax and SSS aren't rook/sophs but I tend to pick them as well. They're both getting up there in years and in pretty crowded depth charts, but I still think they're the best WRs on their teams.

 

And here are some of the ones I'm not too keen on:

 

Devante Parker

Dorial Green-Beckham

Tyler Lockette

Corey Coleman

Markus Wheaton

Willie Snead

Stefon Diggs

Tyler Boyd

Josh Doctson

Breshad Perriman

Michael Thomas

 

For Parker and DGB, I just don't see it. They didn't show much last year but I'm sure people disagree with Parker especially. Baldwin and Kearse are too important to SEA's offense imo for Lockette to be fantasy relevant, even Graham wasn't able to fit into it well. Unless CLE goes back to McCown, I'm not high on any CLE WR. Explained Wheaton already. Snead and Diggs had plenty of chances last year but didn't reach real fantasy relevance, and now there's just more mouths to feed. Boyd, not sure exactly why, I have to see something first. And for the last three, I just don't think they're good enough (this year at least) to be fantasy relevant in such crowded depth charts.

 

Let me know which ones you agree with/disagree with/think I'm missing someone.

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The one I would keep an eye out on is Markus Wheaton. With Bryant suspended for the year, Wheaton has the opportunity. He did show flashes of being great last year.

 

So what's your view of Coates then?

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I think the rookie WR with the most true upside is either Michael Thomas or Sterling Shepherd based on the offensive style and quarterback play.

 

Do you mean for redraft purposes? Cuz I mean, Brees and Manning are both solid QBs but are long in the tooth.

 

If you're going with redraft or even a 3-year window, I would agree with you. Hopefully both teams are able to transition quality QBs into the mix otherwise I could see both of these guys falling off a bit, especially Shepard with OBJ in tow there.

 

I'll add.... Thomas is one of my favorite rookies this year, but mainly because I think his rise to putting up meaningful stats will happen quicker than any other rookie WR.

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I'll add.... Thomas is one of my favorite rookies this year, but mainly because I think his rise to putting up meaningful stats will happen quicker than any other rookie WR.

 

I thought that for a while because of his size, thought he would be drafted above Shepard, but after the draft I've heard "bust potential" being said about Thomas a few times and haven't heard it so much about anyone else. Ohio st's run game may have elevated him quite a bit. Plus Brees spreads the ball around so much, he'll probably be number 4 after Cooks, Snead, and Fleener (maybe he surpasses Snead). How many teams produce 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers? Even 3 is pretty rare. That's why I like Treadwell and Shepard (for this year). Shepard will see enough targets to be a WR2 unless Cruz pulls some kind of miracle.

Edited by pun
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I thought that for a while because of his size, thought he would be drafted above Shepard, but after the draft I've heard "bust potential" being said about Thomas a few times and haven't heard it so much about anyone else. Ohio st's run game may have elevated him quite a bit. Plus Brees spreads the ball around so much, he'll probably be number 4 after Cooks, Snead, and Fleener (maybe he surpasses Snead). How many teams produce 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers? Even 3 is pretty rare. That's why I like Treadwell and Shepard (for this year). Shepard will see enough targets to be a WR2 unless Cruz pulls some kind of miracle.

 

:blink: I can't find one source linking the word "bust" to Michael Thomas, but then again, my Google skills aren't what they used to be.

 

If anything, OSU's offense muted Thomas' potential/ability. If he were on a Big-12 offense he would have had insane stats.

 

Snead came to the Saints after being cast off by the Browns. The Browns. As an UDFA. He rose to prominence in the Saints offense because of the absence of Jimmy Graham and any reliable secondary option past Brandin Cooks.

 

Yes, the addition of Fleener is nice, but who's to say that Thomas (who slides into the Marques Colston spot with ease) won't siphon from Snead's targets?

 

Any player can bust. :shrug:

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:blink: I can't find one source linking the word "bust" to Michael Thomas, but then again, my Google skills aren't what they used to be.

:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347

Thomas has just scratched the surface of his potential in Ohio State's offense full of quick outs and tunnel screens. While he has the size and potential to excite offensive coordinators, Thomas is still a work in progress who must develop a greater feel for the position if he is to match his traits with real NFL production. Thomas has a relatively high ceiling, but his floor is "bust."

FWIW, I'm a big fan of Thomas. But it's out there.
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I might be out on a limb but I am looking squarely at DGB as my young WR to grab. I think he makes a leap, but not THE leap, this year to fantasy relevant but becomes a star the following year. He had 549 yards and four touchdowns last season in a limited role. I could see a jump to 800+ yards and 8 TDs. The following year over 1,000 yard and double digit TDs.

 

I'll grab him whenever he is available as my WR #5/6 and hope for WR #3 numbers.

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I might be out on a limb but I am looking squarely at DGB as my young WR to grab.

 

I'll be watching him in the preseason to see if he has dedicated himself to his craft. Regardless of natural talent, I can't think of many examples of receivers who were dumb and lazy that have become elite in the NFL.

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I'll be watching him in the preseason to see if he has dedicated himself to his craft. Regardless of natural talent, I can't think of many examples of receivers who were dumb and lazy that have become elite in the NFL.

 

From all accounts so far he seems to have committed himself to his craft. I hope he keeps it up.

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:blink: I can't find one source linking the word "bust" to Michael Thomas, but then again, my Google skills aren't what they used to be.

 

Here was another link I saw, but more about dynasty than redraft. https://www.fantasypros.com/2016/05/potential-2016-dynasty-rookie-busts/

 

Not that the "experts" are always right or anything but if you hear more people applying it to one player than others...it's just one thing to consider. I didn't even mention Will Fuller for some of these reasons haha

 

Right, any player can bust, I guess it's just all the things that have to go right for Thomas, combined with the talk about bust potential, makes Thomas becoming fantasy relevant (in 2016 at least) seem pretty unlikely to me, or at least less likely than the other guys I mentioned. He'll have to siphon a loooot of those targets. I agree he has a chance of surpassing Snead like I said earlier but even if that happens, very few teams have produced 3 fantasy relevant pass catchers (and I'd put my money on Fleener before Thomas). In the past few years, the Broncos have done it a few times, and the Bears, maybe the Pats in '14. But still, it doesn't happen often.

 

also you can pretty much cross Perriman off the list for '16 :(

Edited by pun
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http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347

FWIW, I'm a big fan of Thomas. But it's out there.

 

I'd like to see what whoever wrote that pre-draft bio up thinks of him now that he's with the Saints and has a good chance of starting.

 

Pre-draft, sure, Thomas looked like a guy who could be a star, but based on the offense he was in during college, we didn't know quite enough and yeah... bust potential was certainly there - more so than with other WRs in his "range".

 

But once he made it on the Saints roster... at least to me... it was pretty clear he was going to get run early and often.

 

Basically - I'd like to see someone say he's going to be a bust NOW. I just don't see it. :shrug:

Edited by darin3
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Giants rookie Shepard 'lock' for starting job

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/336608/giants-rookie-shepard-lock-for-starting-job?ls=roto:NYG:topheadlines

According to the New York Daily News, second-round WR Sterling Shepard "appears to be a lock" for a starting job.

Even if Victor Cruz (calf, Achilles') finally comes back, Shepard's role should be secure in two-receiver sets opposite Odell Beckham. Per the Daily News, Shepard drew "nothing but raves" at OTAs, demonstrating "terrific speed and great hands." Shepard should finish No. 2 on the Giants in catches this year.
Jun 13 - 4:37 PM
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Sterling Sheppard will fit perfectly into the Giants offense as Eli's WR2 beating out Victor Cruz. I expect decent production out of Steve Smith this year too. Smith was a Top 10 WR in PPR formats before he got hurt because the Ravens have a lot of mediocre WRs but none are that great. Also, don't sleep on Michael Thomas because the Brandin Cooks is not a redzone threat and Thomas will fill that role.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Perriman is dead. Cut him immediately. No WR drafted by any NFL team in the history of the game has ever done anything after missing his first and ANY part of his second year. Look it up or better yet, consider what his old man did-squachives.

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I didn't realize that the criteria of a "very solid pro" would be 2 decent years with a grand total of 14 TD's during that timespan. I guess that will translate to his offspring minus 2 knees and an inability to work at getting back into football.

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