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Keeper League Advice Needed. Your feedback is appreciated!


KCJones
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Ok... so I am in a 12 team keeper. We keep 3 players and there is no cap on how long we keep each player. Keepers count as our 3 first picks (regardless of where they were drafted) so the draft starts in the 4th round. It's a.5 ppr league with passing TDs worth 6 pts. We start QB-WR-WR-RB-RB-FLX-TE.

 

I have the first pick so I am picking Elliott unless there is a serious injury during preseason. I will be able to pair him with Gurley for the foreseeable future. The question is what other two do I keep out of Luck, Shady and Keenan Allen? I also have Edleman but I don't think he is in the discussion.

 

So I guess what scenario looks more appealing heading into the 5th round?

 

LUCK - WR - WR - GURLEY - ELLIOTT - SHADY (FLEX) - TE (In this scenario I'd be waiting until the 5th round for my first WR which is kinda scary.)

 

OR

 

LUCK - K. ALLEN - WR - GURLEY - ELLIOTT - FLEX - TE

 

OR

 

QB - K. ALLEN - WR - GURLEY - ELLIOTT - SHADY (FLEX) - TE

 

I'm in a bit of a pickle because I'd hate to give up on Luck. He has the potential to be the top QB. I also expect big things from Keenan Allen. At the same time, trotting out 3 RB 1s sounds kinda awesome.

 

If you were me what would you do? I'm leaning towards option 2. Your feedback is appreciated!

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I think going with Luck and Keenan Allen is your best bet. Since you can draft Elliot and already have Gurley you'll be fine at RB. And McCoy's production is down with the Bills. Luck will be a top tier QB and you could draft a decent WR in the fifth round like Doug Baldwin, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb or maybe even Edelman.

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Take the 2 RBs, Shady and Allen. You could still get a stud qb with your second pick as well.

RBs are thin, and you would lock up 3 top RBs for the season plus a WR that was probably top 5 last year without an Injury before you even pick.

 

I agree about Luck though, no way should he be counted out based upon last season.

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Luck and Allen with Gurley. Zeke first overall and you are set. McCoy is not worth it especially with the other backs that Buffalo has behind him. As a Bills fan, if Karlos gets his weight down, he and the new Williams (Jonathan) are going to take carries away from McCoy. The upside for the team is much higher with 2 top RBs, a clear no. 1 receiver, and a stud QB.

 

Short term memory is pushing you away from Luck. Indy just remade the oline for the coach down. There is a reason that Luck is about to be the highest paid QB ever...

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Thanks for all the input! It seems that most seem to be agreeing with me on option 2. If anyone else has any thoughts on this please feel free to chime in. I guess there's a reason why I traded for Luck after his rookie year. I've held onto him all this time. It would be a shame to give up on him now. I agree on the other rbs taking carries away from Shady. There's another one who's also in the mix for carries from what I'm reading (Giliseppe - or whatever the heck his name is).

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I've never really considered Edelman as one of my 3 keepers because of his ankle injury, age, the acquisition of hogan and Bennett along with the Brady suspension. All of those things worry me. My buddy thinks I should keep him too but he's also the commish so I take what he says with a grain of salt. He is a stud and he was money for me before he got hurt. Most rankings have him right along Allen tho, so I guess it's something I need to consider. Thanks for the feedback!

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Is luck a more valuable QB than Edelman is WR? I get the thinking that you can get a high upside QB later, but will that high upside QB have a high of a floor or ceiling as Luck? WR break out each year. I highly doubt a QB is going to break out and reach Lucks level. Just my thoughts, and I am no expert.

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I appreciate your thoughts MudDog. I agree. I feel like there are a bunch of WRs with breakout appeal like Torrey Smith and Michael Floyd. As a Chiefs Fan I'd be happy snagging Maclin in the 5th. I'll have back to back picks so I'm thinking I could still get some quality players there. Luckily I have some time.

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And I think this is the first year in about a decade the Bills and Chiefs don't play each other. You guys always play us hard. Last year I recall an idiotic no challenge on Rex being the game changer. Wasn't a Hogan fumble or catch?

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Haha, let's not talk about the Bills and last year...

 

Maclin ALMOST won me a championship 2 years ago, and Smith is a great option for a bounce back or high scoring year. No. 1 WR in Kelly's offense typically go off (look at DeSean Jackson in '13- 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards and 9 tds and Maclin in '14- 85 receptions, 1300+ yards and 10 tds). I would feel more comfortable with Luck at QB and Smith/Maclin as a WR2/3 than someone like Tannehill or Bortles at QB and the Allen/Edelman combo at WR.

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Is luck a more valuable QB than Edelman is WR? I get the thinking that you can get a high upside QB later, but will that high upside QB have a high of a floor or ceiling as Luck? WR break out each year. I highly doubt a QB is going to break out and reach Lucks level. Just my thoughts, and I am no expert.

 

I mean this all depends on what QBs are being kept. I just know that I would prefer to have a guy like Edelman paired with a guy like Tony Romo vs. Andrew Luck and Allen Hurns. I think your concerns with Edelman are justified, but misguided. There is nothing to indicate that his production is going to drop off.

 

Age- He is older sure, but you are only going to keep 3 guys next season which should be Elliott, Gurley, and Allen again so Luck will be dropped from the keeper list in a season anyway.

 

Injury- First. Edelman was just as good in the playoffs last year as he was in the regular season (10 catches, 100 yards against KC, 7 catches, 53 yards against DEN). Second, why does Luck get a pass for his injury? He missed more games last season than Edelman did.

 

Brady Suspension - First, I don't think for a second he will be suspended. Second, Garoppollo is going to go early and often to the guys he has thrown to the most and the ones that know the offense the best (Gronk, Edelman)

 

Hogan/Bennett - you are really worried about these guys taking touches away from Edelman? No. Expect Bennett to get redzone looks like Steve Chandler and Hogan to be Amendola Jr. for when not if ole Danny boy winds up on the IR.

 

Ultimately, it is your decision but I think you are wasting a really good WR to keep a QB that throws a lot of interceptions and is a year removed from being injured on and off before shutting it down. I have nothing telling me he is going to be the same guy. I have the playoffs telling me Edelman will be about the same. Like I said, there are so many QB-Edelman combos I like more than Luck-WR.

 

 

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Ok... so I am in a 12 team keeper. We keep 3 players and there is no cap on how long we keep each player. Keepers count as our 3 first picks (regardless of where they were drafted) so the draft starts in the 4th round. It's a.5 ppr league with passing TDs worth 6 pts. We start QB-WR-WR-RB-RB-FLX-TE.

 

I have the first pick so I am picking Elliott unless there is a serious injury during preseason. I will be able to pair him with Gurley for the foreseeable future. The question is what other two do I keep out of Luck, Shady and Keenan Allen? I also have Edleman but I don't think he is in the discussion.

 

So I guess what scenario looks more appealing heading into the 5th round?

 

LUCK - WR - WR - GURLEY - ELLIOTT - SHADY (FLEX) - TE (In this scenario I'd be waiting until the 5th round for my first WR which is kinda scary.)

 

OR

 

LUCK - K. ALLEN - WR - GURLEY - ELLIOTT - FLEX - TE

 

OR

 

QB - K. ALLEN - WR - GURLEY - ELLIOTT - SHADY (FLEX) - TE

 

I'm in a bit of a pickle because I'd hate to give up on Luck. He has the potential to be the top QB. I also expect big things from Keenan Allen. At the same time, trotting out 3 RB 1s sounds kinda awesome.

 

If you were me what would you do? I'm leaning towards option 2. Your feedback is appreciated!

 

Luck and Allen for the long haul. Shady will remain on the decline and you'll need to replace him sooner and more often. Surely someone will send you a pick for McCoy. Trade him and draft another good rookie.

Edited by Dcat
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Jkraft- in terms of Qbs being kept I would guess based on rosters that Rodgers and possibly Wilson will be kept. There's a chance Cam will be too. I really don't want to be the guy who gives up on luck a year too early. This is going to be a tough one to make.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I know someone just posted about Shady's stock but do you think this makes him more of a keeper over Luck and Edelman? I have one spot for those 3. I feel that Gurley and Keenan Allen are locks. Elliott will be my first pick after keepers are designated. This is getting tougher by the day!

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I would absolutely go with Allen, then it's up to you on Luck v. Edelman. I don't think Shady's in the mix because you will already have Gurley and Zeke. You need either another WR or a QB. Personally, I'd pick Edelman. Either him or Luck will be dropped from you keeper list (barring catastrophic consequences to Gurley, Zeke, or Allen during the year), so it's for one year, and I think Edelman is a more valuable WR this coming year than Luck is valuable as a QB.

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I do like Mccoy this year especially in light of recent news however I think you have to keep Keenan and Luck. Keenan Allen with .5 ppr is absolute money. As for Luck he was banged up last year so last year is an annomaly in my opinion. The Colts want to pass and passing is what they're going to do with those WRs and a 33 year old Frank Gore at running back. Keepers of Gurley Luck Zeke sets you up for the next 10 years.

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I could start Shady as a flex. You have to admit It would be pretty bad ass to trott out those 3 RBs on a weekly basis but it worries me about the quality of receivers that will be available in the 5th round considering this will be my WR2 (if I do keep Shady or Luck). Honestly, that would be the only reason why I would keep Edelman, fear. Also, one thing I forgot to mention is that the scoring is kinda screwy. Rbs and Wrs get a Point for every 20 yrds (not 10 like most). 6 for TDs. For QBs it's 1 point for every 50 yrds. 6 for TDs. Does that any make any one more or less appealing? I'm sorry for dragging this out but I feel like this is an evolving situation.

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So much to my dismay a league vote just reduced passing TDs from 6 to 4 PTS. With that little tidbit, is Luck still worthy of a keeper/3rd round pick? Sadly, my heart is telling me no.

 

 

the change shouldn't effect anything assuming ALL QBs now get 4 instead of 6.

 

And IMO a 3rd is too much for a QB

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