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Keeper Advise


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12 team - half point PPR

 

I pick 9th in draft - one keeper and don't lose draft pick for him

 

Adrian Peterson or Julio Jones?

I don't view these questions as being so straight forward as to just say this guy over that guy... if it were just a one-off choice, I agree with the others that Jones is the way to go.

 

That said, I think the proper way to view these situations is - what 2 players are you going to come away with your keeper and the #9 pick?? What 12 players are most likely to be kept?? and add to that the 8 players picked in front of your #9 pick. Take those 20 players off the board, and what is available to you at your #9 pick??

 

Figure 1 non-RB/WR off the board - Gronk, that leaves 19 RB/WR's off the board at your pick.

 

Are you more comfortable with Peterson and Jeffrey/Nelson/Sammy Watkins/D. Thomas/Cooper, et al??

 

or

 

Are you more comfortable with Jones and Mark Ingram/Doug Martin/Thomas Rawls/Eddie Lacy, CJ Anderson, et al??

 

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I know everyone is swinging for the fences for WR's early this year, and that the RB position is a grab-bag of tandems; but, that IMO only gives all the more value to a guy like Peterson, b/c you know he is going to get all the carries, including goal line.

 

How many other RB's are guaranteed to get that much work?? Leveon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Peterson - everyone else is pretty much in a tandem.

 

IMO, that gives those 3 guys heightened value.

 

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I would extend that logic to include your pick coming back at #16.

 

I like the look of my top 3 players being Peterson, Nelson, and Cooper

 

better than

 

Jones, Lamar Miller, and Cooper

 

Not saying who might be available at your picks... but I think that is logical approach you need to take in making the decision.

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I don't view these questions as being so straight forward as to just say this guy over that guy... if it were just a one-off choice, I agree with the others that Jones is the way to go.

 

That said, I think the proper way to view these situations is - what 2 players are you going to come away with your keeper and the #9 pick?? What 12 players are most likely to be kept?? and add to that the 8 players picked in front of your #9 pick. Take those 20 players off the board, and what is available to you at your #9 pick??

 

Figure 1 non-RB/WR off the board - Gronk, that leaves 19 RB/WR's off the board at your pick.

 

Are you more comfortable with Peterson and Jeffrey/Nelson/Sammy Watkins/D. Thomas/Cooper, et al??

 

or

 

Are you more comfortable with Jones and Mark Ingram/Doug Martin/Thomas Rawls/Eddie Lacy, CJ Anderson, et al??

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I know everyone is swinging for the fences for WR's early this year, and that the RB position is a grab-bag of tandems; but, that IMO only gives all the more value to a guy like Peterson, b/c you know he is going to get all the carries, including goal line.

 

How many other RB's are guaranteed to get that much work?? Leveon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Peterson - everyone else is pretty much in a tandem.

 

IMO, that gives those 3 guys heightened value.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I would extend that logic to include your pick coming back at #16.

 

I like the look of my top 3 players being Peterson, Nelson, and Cooper

 

better than

 

Jones, Lamar Miller, and Cooper

 

Not saying who might be available at your picks... but I think that is logical approach you need to take in making the decision.

 

Ya, I just think you should take the guy who's going to score you the most points at the end of the year barring injury. In a PPR league, that would be Jones. I would then advise selecting the next person you think is going to score the most points out of those available during your first draft pick. Do not get infatuated with slotting positions at certain draft picks.

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I do think it's close as I believe both players will put up big numbers this year but I would lean to J Jones as well. In a keeper league you will be able to roster him for the next 7-8 years. I don't think Peterson has that much time left, maybe 2-3 years. Keeper league - keep the young stud.

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Ya, I just think you should take the guy who's going to score you the most points at the end of the year barring injury. In a PPR league, that would be Jones. I would then advise selecting the next person you think is going to score the most points out of those available during your first draft pick. Do not get infatuated with slotting positions at certain draft picks.

If you take the highest projected point guy at every pick - in a PPR, your first 5 picks are going to be WR's with maybe a QB thrown in there. I'd hate the look of that roster.

 

It's a long season, and no matter what you have to fill (in most leagues) 5 RB/WR spots every week - so that's a minimum of 2 RB's every week.

 

The upside of the tandem phenomenon is that there is usually a 3rd down RB available further down that is going to catch a decent number of passes - Danny Woodhead, Duke Johnson, Sims, et al; but I surely don't want to count on 2 of those guys as my starters every week.

 

Then factor in bye weeks and injury?? IMO you still need a good core of RB's to succeed in most leagues - regardless of the scoring system. Every year I go against guys that neglect RB in favor of the approach you mentioned, and every year those guys are scrambling to get a decent RB in their lineup.

 

My goal is to fill my 5-6 RB/WR slots every week with double digit scorers - and for the most part I always do that. I'm almost always the last guy in my leagues to draft a QB, and if I miss out on an elite TE, same goes for that position - although I almost always have a plan to jump on one fairly early.

 

The name of the game is RB's and WR's. QB's are incidental from week to week.

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If you take the highest projected point guy at every pick - in a PPR, your first 5 picks are going to be WR's with maybe a QB thrown in there. I'd hate the look of that roster.

 

It's a long season, and no matter what you have to fill (in most leagues) 5 RB/WR spots every week - so that's a minimum of 2 RB's every week.

 

The upside of the tandem phenomenon is that there is usually a 3rd down RB available further down that is going to catch a decent number of passes - Danny Woodhead, Duke Johnson, Sims, et al; but I surely don't want to count on 2 of those guys as my starters every week.

 

Then factor in bye weeks and injury?? IMO you still need a good core of RB's to succeed in most leagues - regardless of the scoring system. Every year I go against guys that neglect RB in favor of the approach you mentioned, and every year those guys are scrambling to get a decent RB in their lineup.

 

My goal is to fill my 5-6 RB/WR slots every week with double digit scorers - and for the most part I always do that. I'm almost always the last guy in my leagues to draft a QB, and if I miss out on an elite TE, same goes for that position - although I almost always have a plan to jump on one fairly early.

 

The name of the game is RB's and WR's. QB's are incidental from week to week.

 

Ya huh...Look, the question is A or B. Which is going to score you higher? A - Julio or B - Peterson. You recommended he go B, not because B was going to score him higher, but because you believe he can not build a team around A. Well I guarentee it is possible to build a team around A and win. So why don't we take the two options before us (Julio or Peterson) and offer advise on which we think will score him more barring injury. Mmmkay?

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Ya huh...Look, the question is A or B. Which is going to score you higher? A - Julio or B - Peterson. You recommended he go B, not because B was going to score him higher, but because you believe he can not build a team around A. Well I guarentee it is possible to build a team around A and win. So why don't we take the two options before us (Julio or Peterson) and offer advise on which we think will score him more barring injury. Mmmkay?

Let's say you keep Jones and take a RB at pick #21 and end up with Lamar Miller's stats from last year; let's also say keep Peterson and take Jordy Nelson at pick #21 and take his stats from 2014, as he missed last year.

 

The Jones/Miller tandem, in a 1/2 pt PPR scores you 513 pts.

 

The Peterson/Nelson tandem, in a 1/2 PPR scores you 533.6 pts.

 

Let's then take your scenario of always taking the higher scoring player... and you keep Jones and take Nelson at #21, and take Cooks at #28... when do you take your first RB, and what will his projected numbers be in a 1/2 pt PPR?? Unless you hit on a guy like Davanta Freeman further down, you're going to be chasing RB's all year - which is a hard way to keep up in FF.

 

It's not as straight forward as you're trying to make it out to be. It would be a easier choice if it were a full pt PPR - I'd take Jones and not look back, but in a 1/2 pt PPR the numbers are much closer, and a full-time RB still has tremendous value.

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It's not as straight forward as you're trying to make it out to be. It would be a easier choice if it were a full pt PPR - I'd take Jones and not look back, but in a 1/2 pt PPR the numbers are much closer, and a full-time RB still has tremendous value.

 

It really is that straight forward. Is Julio or Peterson going to score more? The rest is all very dependent upon who is available/kept and how the teams draft which is impossible for us to know. Thus...

 

Do not get infatuated with slotting positions at certain draft picks.

 

Throw in the future keeper potential and you really are making it more complicated then it needs to be. K.I.S.S.

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It really is that straight forward. Is Julio or Peterson going to score more? The rest is all very dependent upon who is available/kept and how the teams draft which is impossible for us to know. Thus...

 

 

Throw in the future keeper potential and you really are making it more complicated then it needs to be. K.I.S.S.

Okay - gotcha Mr. 513...

 

Signing off,

 

Mr. 533

 

Mmmkay ;)

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