Trust in David Johnson

[etrain1234]

Small sample size with only 5 starts last season. CJ and Ellington behind him on the depth chart. How much do you trust Johnson as a top 3 RB? (I've seen him go as the #1 RB in several mocks.)

 

I have the 6th pick in a non-PPR league and I'm anticipating Antonio, OBJ, Julio, Gurley, and AP already being off the board. I find myself going with Zeke over Johnson in this scenario in the mocks I've done. Help convince me to trust David Johnson.

[anismith]

Dev pick Johnson over Zeek. I don't think it would be crazy to take AJ or Hopkins over Zeek either.

[etrain1234]

I know this is the year of the WR. But I'm kind of thinking of going the other way since it's a non PPR. There are so few workhorse RB's out there that landing one at 6 could give me a huge advantage as long as I wind up with a Jordy Nelson/Keenan Allan at WR1 in the 2nd...which I should.

 

IDK...Hopefully one of AB, OBJ, Julio, Gurley, or AP will fall to me at 6.

Edited August 25, 2016 by etrain1234

[Shaft]

In Johnson or Zeek you're acting on faith. One has a short resume and other has shown nothing at the professional level. Both have reliable and proven backups. It's up to you. If you take him and he puts up 2,000 yards from scrimmage, you made a wise choice. If he puts up a dud or gets injured, you will regret riding the hype train. I did draft AJ Green over him because I was being cautious with my 6th pick.

[anismith]

In Johnson or Zeek you're acting on faith. One has a short resume and other has shown nothing at the professional level. Both have reliable and proven backups. It's up to you. If you take him and he puts up 2,000 yards from scrimmage, you made a wise choice. If he puts up a dud or gets injured, you will regret riding the hype train. I did draft AJ Green over him because I was being cautious with my 6th pick.

Yeah, this is the reason I'd rather do a WR with my first pick (unless something Crazy happens and the top 8 receivers are off the board). With a WR, there is little chance of injury. Plus, top WR's are impossible to replace for the most part. You can replace a RB if the right injury happens.

[etrain1234]

Very good points. Much less bust potential with somebody like Hopkins or AJ Green at 6.

[ImNotSoIgnorant]

From the real and the mocks for 10 team redrafts, and I assume its the same for 12 team leagues, people that pick WRs at the bottom get shafted at RB very badly. At 6th place I'd choose a WR over a RB. From my observations top 5 will choose 3 WRs and 2 RBs or 4 WRs and 1 RB. When the draft snakes back to you at 6th there will still be a top 12 WR or RB available. And then in the third round you should be able go for the best option available among WR/RB unless nobody has taken Gronk. At 6 my suggestion is WR then RB as the people after you will be taking the best available for the 3rd and 4th rounds which means more RBs will likely be off the board. It is a good year for WRs, but to me that just means more viable WR1 and WR2 are available. In my RB rankings the top quality drops off fast. If you do not have a RB after the third round yr definitely screwed drafting at 6th. If you're iffy on Johnson, and I generally prefer proven and consistent players, then you still have Miller and Charles to choose from. The RBs after the top 5, to me, start becoming harder to guess at the quality they'll provide. Will Lacy still be performing poorly as he did last year and in the first 5 or so games the year before? Will Demarco Murray be in a time share? Do Forte and Mccoy still have it? Etc.

 

So many websites are ranking Johnson the 3rd or 4th RB to take that I'm sort of a believer. Lamar Miller is the safer pick, so if yr not comfortable with Johnson and decide to choose a RB you can go Miller.

Edited August 25, 2016 by ImNotSoIgnorant

[BA Baracus]

There is just no way that I'm taking any RB in the 1st. They are just too unpredictable.

 

To me, it is just pure madness that people are taking a rookie RB in the 1st (Zeke) in redraft. Nothing in fantasy is guaranteed, but Zeke not living up to that draft position is pretty damn close.

[anismith]

From the real and the mocks for 10 team redrafts, and I assume its the same for 12 team leagues, people that pick WRs at the bottom get shafted at RB very badly. At 6th place I'd choose a WR over a RB. From my observations top 5 will choose 3 WRs and 2 RBs or 4 WRs and 1 RB. When the draft snakes back to you at 6th there will still be a top 12 WR or RB available. And then in the third round you should be able go for the best option available among WR/RB unless nobody has taken Gronk. At 6 my suggestion is WR then RB as the people after you will be taking the best available for the 3rd and 4th rounds which means more RBs will likely be off the board. It is a good year for WRs, but to me that just means more viable WR1 and WR2 are available. In my RB rankings the top quality drops off fast. If you do not have a RB after the third round yr definitely screwed drafting at 6th. If you're iffy on Johnson, and I generally prefer proven and consistent players, then you still have Miller and Charles to choose from. The RBs after the top 5, to me, start becoming harder to guess at the quality they'll provide. Will Lacy still be performing poorly as he did last year and in the first 5 or so games the year before? Will Demarco Murray be in a time share? Do Forte and Mccoy still have it? Etc.

 

So many websites are ranking Johnson the 3rd or 4th RB to take that I'm sort of a believer. Lamar Miller is the safer pick, so if yr not comfortable with Johnson and decide to choose a RB you can go Miller.

 

Look at the top 6 backs drafted last year, most who were drafted almost entirely 1-5 overall. AP, Bell, Lacy, Lynch, and Charles. Two were hurt and Lynch and Lacy underperformed like crazy. CJ obviously did not do much better last year. AP is the only one that really worked out.

 

Top 6 WR's last year pre-draft: Brown, OBJ, Julio, Dez, Calvin, and AJ Green. With WR's it is the mirror image: only 1 of them was a bust (Dez) and the rest were awesome. Sure Calvin underperformed a bit, but really solid and consistent with preseason ranks.

 

Also, think about replaceability. Which WR's came on last year later in the season as true sleepers? Hurns maybe? Crabtree. Sure they were good, but nothing crazy good.

 

Now think about running back: you could have picked up D-Will, David Johnson, Hightower, etc and been just fine.

 

WR's are just way safer and much much harder to replace.

[MTSuper7]

Back to the purpose of this thread... I took David Johnson 5th overall in an MFL10 (PPR). Antonio, Julio, Beckham and AJ Green went top 4. I could have taken Gurley obviously, but I just like the AZ offense a LOT more than the Rams' offense. Goff and Keenum are flat out awful looking, and I think 8 in the box is a given all year. Gurley will probably still get his, but I think DJ has more upside to be a monster.

[BA Baracus]

Back to the purpose of this thread... I took David Johnson 5th overall in an MFL10 (PPR). Antonio, Julio, Beckham and AJ Green went top 4. I could have taken Gurley obviously, but I just like the AZ offense a LOT more than the Rams' offense. Goff and Keenum are flat out awful looking, and I think 8 in the box is a given all year. Gurley will probably still get his, but I think DJ has more upside to be a monster.

I am down with DJ over Gurley in redraft. Better offense means more scoring opportunities. You can't count on Gurley breaking long TD's every game and I am pretty sure it is a stated goal of Jeff Fisher for the Rams to not visit the red zone very often.

 

MFL10's are a different animal. WR consistency doesn't matter, so in my mind, it's all about drafting as many touches as you can to your roster. I have done quite a few MFL10's where I start out with 4 straight RB's because I just need WR's who are going to see some targets, even if they are not consistently targeted. It's a lot easier for a WR to have low volume but still have high fantasy output. RB's need that volume (except for maybe Woodhead) and volume RB's go early.